May 2016 households review: retail sales slump again

RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - In Brief 21 Jun 2016 by Marcel Salikhov
Rosstat published yesterday monthly economic data for May 2016. Somewhat surprisingly, retail sales were weak again last month. Sales were down 6.1% y-o-y (-0.8% m-o-m, sa) in May vs -4.7% y-o-y (-0.2% m-o-m, sa) in April. Foods sales (-1% m-o-m) continue to underperform non-food sales (-0.6% m-o-m). So despite improved external conditions in recent months, weak household demand is still a drag for the economy and is a risk in terms 2Q16 GDP results. Continued weakness in retail trade to some extent doesn’t correspond to an uptick in real wages. Wages growth is supported both by lower inflation and nominal increase. As result, real wages were up 0.7% m-o-m (sa) in May. Real incomes (more volatile series) were up 1.7% m-o-m (sa). Real wages hit the bottom late 2015 and continued to improve since then. Wages growth sooner or later will translate into households consumption but at the moment Russian consumers are still in ‘risk-off’ mood. Reail wages & incomes, retail trade, Jan 2011 - May 2016 (s.a.)Source: IEF calulations based on Rosstat dataReail trade by major groups, Jan 2011 - May 2016 (s.a.)Source: IEF calulations based on Rosstat dataSource: IEF calulations based on Rosstat data

Now read on...

Register to sample a report

Register
Sign-in
Forgot your password?
Copyright 2024 GlobalSource Partners. All rights reserved. This is prepared for GlobalSource Partners’ clients and may not be redistributed, reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, retransmitted or disclosed, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of GlobalSource Partners. This is distributed simultaneously to our website and other portals used by GlobalSource Partners. The information herein was obtained from various sources and is believed to be reliable but GlobalSource Partners does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Neither GlobalSource Partners nor any Country Analyst, officer or employee accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential damages or losses rising from any use of this or its contents.