Weaker Oil Prices Will Slam Growth

RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - Forecast 10 Feb 2015 by Marcel Salikhov and Leonid Grigoriev
Executive Summary Though we published our last Quarterly outlook in early December, lower oil prices and a weaker ruble, coupled with higher inflation, impose significant changes in our forecasts for the Russian economy. In this report, we offer updated scenarios for Russia in 2015, based solely on oil price forecasts (at $50, $60 and $70 per barrel of Brent). We assume no changes in the sanctions situation. While both easing and tightening of sanctions is possible in 2015, we decided not to speculate about that. Under our base scenario, with Brent oil at $60, we expect Russian GDP to decli...

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