When Will the Ruble Hit Bottom?

RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - Report 11 Jul 2013 by Marcel Salikhov and Leonid Grigoriev

Executive Summary Bi-currency basket depreciated 5.2% in May-June 2013. Subsequently, the CBR stepped in with currency interventions to support the ruble and spent almost $2.2 billion in June and $1.2 billion in first 9 days of July. Global trends are mostly behind the sharp decline in the Russian currency, including the outflow of capital from developing markets and other risky assets. Other EM/commodity currencies also declined as much or more than RUB. Preliminary estimates of the balance of payments were published last week that also point towards several domestic factors for a weaker r...

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