Costa Rican president Laura Chinchilla’s trip to Peru in a private plane generated a political tempest, leading to the resignation of both the communications minister and the vice minister of the interior in charge of fighting drug trafficking and money laundering. The plane, offered to Chinchilla so ...

We are fully aware that the Brief’s title equally applies to both the Moody’s decision -- to upgrade Turkey to investment grade (IG) -- and the timing of this Brief. But it doesn’t hurt to take stock. What Happened? Late Thursday evening Turkish time, quite auspiciously on the very day of Prime Minister ...

The 0.7% growth of the IBC-Br in March confirms that the Brazilian economy is recovering and that in the first quarter GDP may have grown by nearly 1% (graph 1). But this is just an aggregate number, and to trace out the perspectives for the country’s economy in the coming quarters it is important to ...

On May 17th, 2013, almost one year ahead of presidential elections, President Santos gave a press conference, saying “I clearly and firmly state that the policies we have pursued, should continue after August 7th 2014.” His policies deserve reelection, was his motto. In particular he mentioned peace,

It is all over but the final count and official proclamation. Based on the tally of 76% of the vote, the administration's senatorial candidates in Monday's midterm elections are set to bag 9 of the 12 seats in contention. Reports at the local level also indicate that members of the President's coalition ...

The MPC cut all interest rates -- the weekly policy as well as the O/N rates -- today and tweaked the ROC upwards slightly. While we expected the across-the-board cuts, they were deeper (50 bps vs. 25 bps) than expected, and were accompanied by somewhat surprising hikes (about 0.5 pp on certain maturities) ...

March did not bring good news regarding household consumption or real retail sales. Sales volume in the restricted sense (without cars and construction materials) fell by 0.1% in relation to February, and in the 12 months through the end of March 2013, growth reached 4.4%, recovering slightly from the ...

Central Bank President Diego Martinez recently stated that Ecuador “is in its best position ever to go to the markets,” and that, as president of the National Debt Committee, he would support that strategy. Ecuador last launched a private issue on December 2005, of 2015 global bonds yielding 10.75%,

Energy is the most vexing problem of the Turkish economy, but also the wellspring of tremendous investment potential and market-driving themes. Despite being a significant energy importer, Turkey aspires to become an important regional energy player, notably in the transit of energy from the Central ...

According to the latest opinion poll published by IPSOS for April 2013, for the third month in a row, President Martinelli has increased in popularity, gaining momentum, with a 14 percentage point jump during the period, reaching his highest mark in over a year. These results seem to benefit the perspectives ...

After exceeding the 6.5% upper limit of the target interval in March, the IPCA for April caused the 12-month figure to settle just under that limit, at 6.49%. Those who think this is reason to celebrate are free to do so, but a modicum of attention to the details shows there is no reason for such optimism....

The Argentine government is clearly losing its grip on the economy. Amid a money-laundering scandal, its latest move has been to announce a tax amnesty, inviting holders of foreign currency to regularize their situations. The amnesty seeks to channel foreign currency into dollar-denominated public ...

Economic activity in Q1 was lower than expected, at 1%-1.5%, due to the effects of tax reform, and slim investment spending. But an increase in capital spending was announced, and successful allocation of $1 billion in sovereign bonds in April will ease the foreign exchange market. So we expect more ...

The economy is emitting mixed signals: some sectors are showing strong momentum, while others are slowing even more. April indicators offer little hope of significant recovery in H2. We do expect late-year expansion – but more slowly than the government has projected. Private consumption remains the ...

The Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council expects growth to pick up to as much as 6.7%, and the IMF forecasts 6%. We believe both forecasts are optimistic, and expect growth to remain sluggish. India will be lucky if growth doesn’t fall below 5%. The Council’s report suggests that higher GDP ...

Dmitry Medvedev’s government is coming under increasing pressure. The prime minister’s most important projects, including the Skolkovo Innovation Center, are receiving increased attention from law enforcement, while the government itself is being openly criticized by former officials, Duma deputies ...

Since growth keeps slowing – and the 0.4 pp q/q drop to 7.7% in Q1 was greater than expected – we’ve lowered our growth projections for 2013 and 2014. Falling industrial output, consumer spending and export growth have taken their toll. Growth may rebound to 8% by yearend, and intensify a bit in 2014....

Contrary to expectations of a better result, industrial production in March expanded just 0.7%, recovering only part of the fall of 2.4% in February. In the first quarter, industry grew 0.8% after having contracted by 0.1% in the last three months of 2012. GDP in the first quarter should show some acceleration...

At long last, the Philippines graduated to investment grade with two international raters upgrading the sovereign's foreign credit within five weeks of each other from late March to early May. Much-awaited and most-welcomed as it shines the spotlight on the country at a time when government is busily ...

The government is trapped in contradictions. First it tried to restore industrial competitiveness by weakening the real, but it did so in the midst of expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, triggering in increase in inflation, which forced it to abandon the attempt to further depreciate the currency....

In April, consumer prices rose by a lower than expected 0.4%, versus market expectations of around 0.7%. The gap -- at least as far as our forecast is concerned -- largely stems from softer food and transportation prices. Combined with the base effect from last year’s electricity price hikes, today’s ...

The escalation of war in Syria, reportedly with some use of chemical weapons, and a new bout of sectarian strife in Iraq caused us to raise the DEFCON level on Turkey’s political stability. Some of the scenarios that follow from these latest developments would have global ramifications, too, like a ...

It is increasingly clear that President Xi Jinping would like to maintain “political continuity.” And he’s showing international ambitions, too. He made his first foreign trip, to Russia, after taking full power in mid-March. That was aimed at deepening ties that might secure energy and weapon supplies....

Today, the CBT issued the second Inflation Report of the year and TURKSTAT released the March trade data. We comment on these briefly below. The Inflation Report did not contain any surprises. Most importantly, the yearend (mid-point) inflation forecast of 5.3% did not change, nor has the end-2014 ...

We are still moderately optimistic about the Russian economy’s short-term prospects, and expect GDP to expand by 2.8%-2.9% this year. But growth is unlikely to top 3%-3.5% over the medium term. The government still isn’t ready to launch comprehensive reforms, and monetary stimulus won’t boost growth ...