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Apr 14, 2014
China Databank
Apr 9, 2014
Peru Databank
Apr 3, 2014
Argentina Databank
Apr 2, 2014
South Afric Databank
Apr 1, 2014
Colombia Databank
ANALYSIS & FORECASTS

SOUTH AFRICA - Market Brief 15 Apr 2014
South Africa is now in full electioneering swing. Understandably, emotions are running high, and all the political parties, civil society activists, trade unions, businesses and society at large are on full alert. The 2014 General Elections, scheduled for May 7, are believed to be of particular significance ...
BRAZIL - Market Brief 14 Apr 2014
Brazil no longer has an abundance of labor as it did in the past. But the data from the labor market are partial and need to be improved. To provide a better picture of the job market, the IBGE recently launched the “Continuous PNAD” (PNAD Contínua, with PNAD standing for National Household Survey),
COLOMBIA - Monthly Report 14 Apr 2014
GDP sped up in 2013, to 4.3% from 4% in 2012. Construction, lifted by a government-supported low-income housing program, expanded 9.8%. Agriculture also did well, up 5.2%. Despite mining’s notorious slowdown, it’s still one of the fastest-growing sectors, up 4.9% last year, mainly due to greater oil ...
TURKEY - Quarterly Outlook 13 Apr 2014
AKP’s local election victory, the beginnings of external adjustment and an improved GEM sentiment helped Turkish markets rally strongly in the past several days. This could continue a while longer, as long as investors remain constructive on the asset class and hold a relatively benign view on Turkey’s ...
HUNGARY - Quarterly Outlook 11 Apr 2014
In our first Quarterly Report on Hungary, we deal with the results and the likely impact of the election held last Sunday, and a macro forecast running through end-2016. On the latter, we provide readers with an explanation of the direction, the movers and the dynamics of expected developments in all ...
PHILIPPINES - Special Report 11 Apr 2014
Philippine-China relations sank to a new low last week following the Philippines’ filing of a memorial or pleading before a United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea arbitral tribunal. The memorial was in connection with the arbitration case it initiated against China early last year over disputed ...
SOUTH AFRICA - Special Report 11 Apr 2014
The performance of mining and manufacturing disappointed in February 2014. Looking ahead, risks to these sectors are tilted to the downside, with adverse consequences for an economic recovery in 2014....
BRAZIL - Special Report 10 Apr 2014
The Central Bank has continued selling foreign exchange swaps even since the real started appreciating. What is the aim of this action? One possibility is that, lacking the freedom to raise the interest rate sufficiently because the government does not want any further deceleration in economic growth ...
SOUTH AFRICA - Quarterly Outlook 09 Apr 2014
One quarter into 2014, it appears that a blend of domestic and global ingredients will decide the course of South Africa’s economic performance going forward. Confidence at home is by and large low. On the whole, we expect a lackluster economic performance as consumption spending growth is expected ...
BRAZIL - Market Brief 09 Apr 2014
In March the IPCA grew by 0.92%, in comparison with the IPCA-15 of 0.73%, raising the 12-month figure from 5.68% to 6.15%. With this result, the probability has grown that inflation will exceed the upper bound of the target interval at some point during the second or third quarters this year, and that ...
PERU - Monthly Report 08 Apr 2014
First lady Nadine Heredia has rapidly metamorphosed from the government’s main political asset into its biggest liability. Her involvement in the abrupt dismissal of Prime Minister Cesar Villanueva was so obvious, and Villanueva’s sacking so crude, that Heredia drew heavy criticism. A poll taken a few ...
HUNGARY - Market Brief 07 Apr 2014
According to preliminary results released by the National Electoral Committee, the incumbent governing alliance Fidesz-KDNP won the regular four-yearly election held in the unicameral National Assembly yesterday (April 6). The winner acquired 133 out of the total 199 seats (66.8%) in parliament, meaning ...
CENTRAL AMERICA - Market Brief 07 Apr 2014
Luis Guillermo Solis of the opposition Citizens Action Party (PAC) won a landslide victory over Johnny Araya of the official National Liberation Party in Sunday´s runoff election. Solis obtained nearly 78% of the valid vote, whereas Araya, who virtually withdrew from the race a month ago, received only ...
BRAZIL - Market Brief 07 Apr 2014
There are still no signs of recovery of the trade balance, even though the real exchange rate is currently 14% weaker than it was a year ago. The first quarter closed with a deficit of US$ 6 billion, which is the biggest quarterly deficit in the history of the series, dating to 1959. In the 12 months ...
BRAZIL - Monthly Report 07 Apr 2014
The administration is faced with the unsavory prospect of an election year with weak economic growth combined with high inflation, with virtually no ammunition (fiscal or monetary) to improve matters in the short run. In 2011 and 2012 it pushed the interest rate substantially below the neutral level,
TURKEY - Special Report 04 Apr 2014
“Sometimes victory is not about how well you have performed, but how poorly your rival did”—Cosmic Strategist Five days after the local elections, Turkey’s electoral supervisor, the High Election Council (HEC) is yet to announce the official results. We have two different vote tallies to analyze,
RUSSIA - Quarterly Outlook 04 Apr 2014
Russian growth this year will turn on the outcome of the conflict with the West over Crimea. The dispute has already caused a stock selloff, and a plunge in the ruble. The CBR increased its key rate by 150 bp, to limit capital outflows. The U.S. imposed a second round of economic sanctions on Russia ...
RUSSIA - POLITICS Monthly Report 04 Apr 2014
Russia has made a dramatic foreign policy turn, disregarding all previously valued compromises with the West, by including the Crimean peninsula in the Russian Federation despite the objections of the Ukrainian leadership, the EU and the US. This will also impact Russia’s relations with Asia as it makes ...
TURKEY - Market Brief 03 Apr 2014
March CPI inflation came in at a higher than expected 1.1%, which meant an increase in the 12-month rate to 8.4% from about 8% a month earlier, as PPI inflation also remained rather elevated....
MEXICO - Monthly Report 02 Apr 2014
March economic data was mostly negative. Even as the government accelerated spending programs, and offered to expand its mortgage lending programs to help revive a deeply depressed housing industry, there was further evidence that the economy, especially in the domestic sectors, continued to soften....
BRAZIL - Market Brief 02 Apr 2014
Industrial output in February grew 0.4%, after climbing 3.8% in January, resulting in growth over the previous 12 months of 5%. Because the Carnival holiday fell in February in 2013 and in March this year, February 2014 had two more working days than the year before, so the base for comparison plays ...
UKRAINE - Quarterly Outlook 01 Apr 2014
In the face of foreign intervention, Ukraine has united. Over the past few months Ukrainian society has changed dramatically: Ukrainians have realized their own strength and potential, and are marshalling it to confront a clear external enemy. And Ukrainian authorities command even less respect than ...
INDONESIA - Monthly Report 31 Mar 2014
Optimism breeds optimism. That’s an apt analysis of events in Indonesia so far this year. Good news in January generated further optimism, which ultimately strengthened the currency. At this writing, the rupiah has strengthened to about Rp. 11,400, from Rp. 12,300 earlier in the year, even though the ...
TURKEY - Market Brief 31 Mar 2014
GDP growth in Q4 was a somewhat stronger than expected 4.4%, y/y, though data pointed to a relative slowdown in q/q terms, to 0.5% (SAAR: 2%) from 0.8% a quarter earlier, and an even stronger near-2% pace during the first half of the year. Growth has thus ended the year at little over 4%, around the ...
TURKEY - Market Brief 31 Mar 2014
It is 17:00 in Turkey and the High Election Council is yet to announce even the preliminary results of the local elections. I still get two vote counts. In the first one, AKP scores 45.8%, compared to CHP’s 28%. The other count shows AKP at 43.3% and CHP at 26.7%. Note that the differences in between ...
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Apr 16, 2014
ECB Governing Council meeting
Apr 16, 2014
Bank of Canada meeting
Apr 17, 2014
CHILE: Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting
Apr 25, 2014
MEXICO: Central Bank Monetary Policy Announcement
Apr 29, 2014
U.S. Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market
Mar 26, 2014 at 10:00 am EST
Mar 6, 2014 at 1:00 pm EST
Feb 27, 2014 at 11:00 am EST
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