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Jul 20, 2015
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ANALYSIS & FORECASTS

CHINA - Monthly Report 29 Jul 2015
Though growth is still low, we expect it to pick up H2, driven by several positive factors. GDP grew 7% y/y in Q2, flat on Q1. Industrial output in Q2 was up 6.3% y/y, virtually flat on Q1. But output was up 6.8% y/y in June, its highest level this year, and up 1.2 pps from its March low. Fixed asset ...
UKRAINE - Monthly Report 28 Jul 2015
The Ministry of Finance paid a $120 million coupon on its Eurobond on July 24th, which postponed feared default and reduced chances of a moratorium on debt repayment. The story is still long from over, and the Ministry of Finance will continue negotiating with creditors through September. But a 40% ...
SOUTH AFRICA - Special Report 27 Jul 2015
After a year-long struggle to regain its membership of COSATU, SA’s largest private sector union, National Union of Metalworkers of South Africa (NUMSA) with an estimated membership of over 360,000 members, resolved to go on its own and form a new “union confederation” and launch its own “workerist ...
BRAZIL - Market Brief 27 Jul 2015
Last week, the finance and planning ministers announced that the primary surplus target for 2015 has been reduced from 1.1% to 0.15% of GDP. The targets for 2016 and 2017, which were previously set at at least 2% of GDP, have also been lowered, to 0.7% and 1.3% of GDP, respectively. None of these targets,
CHINA FINANCIAL - Monthly Report 27 Jul 2015
• The sustainability of China’s economic model and its dependence on debt has been a controversial topic far longer than it should have been, but while there is now a consensus that Chinese debt levels are very high and may put the country at risk, most economists still do not understand how debt constrains ...
SOUTH AFRICA - Special Report 27 Jul 2015
On July 23, 2015, the monetary authority of South Africa voted to increase the repo rate by 25 basis points. Such a move can be construed as a confirmation that the South African Reserve Bank has kept to its long-held assertion that it had embarked on an interest rate hiking cycle. Apparently, the South ...
BRAZIL - Special Report 27 Jul 2015
Because of the declining tax revenue caused by the recession and the only partial approval by Congress of the proposed spending cuts, it was evident for some time that the primary surplus target of 1.1% of GDP for 2015 would not be met. But there was belief in a moderate reduction of the target, followed ...
COLOMBIA - Quarterly Outlook 24 Jul 2015
What does the FARC really want from a peace agreement? We believe the answer can be found in those half dozen border provinces where the guerrillas derive most of their income, and where their investments and wealth are concentrated. We believe prospects for a deal are good: as many Colombians suspect,
TURKEY - Market Brief 23 Jul 2015
The Monetary Policy Committee left all key short-term rates unchanged as expected today – one-week repo rate at 7.5% and the O/N lending and borrowing rates at 10.75% and 7.25%, respectively. The content of the statement is exactly the same with the previous one except for one minor modification on ...
SOUTH AFRICA - Market Brief 23 Jul 2015
The South African Reserve Bank (SARB)’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to increase the repo rate from 5.75 to 6.0% per year, effective Friday, July 24, 2015. Today’s MPC decision appears to be largely informed by anticipation of a US interest rate hike later this year. A normalization of US ...
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Jul 29, 2015 at am EST
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