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Essential CIS Politics: May 2024
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 02 May 2024

* Russia has gained ground in Ukraine and hit cities with drones and missiles. * Ukraine passed a law allowing more men to be drafted. * Russian peacekeepers are leaving Armenia as the country improves relations with Azerbaijan by ceding land. * Georgia passes foreign agents’ law despite ...

Moody’s increased the outlook for Brazil's sovereign debt from stable to positive, Lula broke electoral rules by calling for his supporters to vote for Boulos in São Paulo, and the São Paulo City Council votes on the Sabesp privatization
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 May 2024

Yesterday, the rating agency Moody's raised the outlook for Brazil's medium and long-term sovereign debt from stable to positive. The company, however, maintained its long-term issuer and unsecured government bond ratings at Ba2. Yesterday, trade unions organized an event for Labor Day. Lula expl...

Current account deficit narrowed in 1Q24
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 02 May 2024

According to the National Bank of Kazakhstan, the current account narrowed in 1Q24 to about $0.89 bn, while in 2023 its quarterly deficit varied from $1.6 bn to $3.4 bn. According to recent revisions the current account deficit reached almost $8.66 bn last year.In 1Q24, the trade surplus accounte...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 02 May 2024

Apr 17 Kazakhstan Petrochemical Industries: A purchase of 40% in a polypropylene production project in the Atyrau region (Western Kazakhstan) Kazakhstan Petrochemical Industries Inc. by the Russian company SIBUR was finally approved. Energy Ministry: Kazakhstan and Russia signed an agreement on t...

The Central Bank maintains the monetary policy interest rate unchanged in May 2024
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 01 May 2024

For the sixth consecutive month since Dec 2023, the monetary policy interest rate will remain unchanged. During May 2024, the monetary policy interest rate remains at 7.0% annually. Also, the permanent liquidity expansion facility rate (1-day Repos) and the interest-bearing deposit rate will rema...

15 minutes of fame for everyone
COLOMBIA · Report · 30 Apr 2024 · 1 response

The drastic reduction of Colombia’s external imbalance, in the last quarter of 2022 and all of 2023, was a most welcome development. For starters, monetary policy decisions are no longer facing the two-headed hydra of inflation plus excessive domestic demand. Furthermore, FDI is comfortably finan...

A definitive new president
INDONESIA · Report · 30 Apr 2024

Indonesia’s Constitutional Court made a ruling on April 22, 2024, rejecting the challenges from the losing presidential candidates for a re-run of the presidential election. With that ruling, the Election Committee made its final decision on the presidential election result, with Prabowo Subianto...

Padilha meets with Senate leaders to discuss the joint session of Congress on vetoes, the CCJ should vote on the bill that resumes the mandatory insurance for vehicles, and the Senate should vote on the Perse bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Apr 2024

The Minister of Institutional Relations, Alexandre Padilha, meets with Senate leaders to negotiate vetoes that should be analyzed in a joint session of Congress next week. There was going to be a session of Congress last week to analyze vetoes, but it was postponed due to a lack of consensus. The...

GDP somewhat stronger than expected in Q1, real wage growth very high in February
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Apr 2024

GDP grew by 0.8% qoq, 1.7% yoy on seasonally and calendar-adjusted basis in Q1, according to KSH's first estimate. Both figures represent material strengthening from Q4's upwardly revised 0% qoq, 0.5% yoy growth data. However, all this was only a moderate surprise: analysts, including us, expecte...

April CCA Highlights: Armenia's deflation persists, Azerbaijan's GDP growth strong in 1Q, Georgia buys gold, Uzbekistan raises utility tariffs, Tajikistan summons Russian amabassador
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 30 Apr 2024

We comment on the key economic developments in the Caucasus and Central Asia in April: Armenia: Monthly economic indicator grows by 15.3% YoY in Mar Armenia: Central Bank lowers refinancing rate by 25bpts to 8.25% Armenia: CA posts a 2.1% of GDP deficit in 2023 Armenia: Gross external debt ...

Corruption crackdown in Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Apr 2024

On April 29 the head of Nizhny Novgorod was arrested in Russian-occupied Ukraine on suspicion of stealing public funds. Oleg Lavrichev is head of his city council and a member of United Russia, the party that dominates the country. Lavrichev was supposed to supervise the distribution of food and ...

Economics: Inflation proves stubborn and public finances continue to deteriorate
MEXICO · Report · 30 Apr 2024

Economic news over the past month included some unexpectedly positive numbers even as the economy continues to slow. Private consumption grew, but at less than half the 2023 rate, and most of the increase is coming from a forex-fueled demand for imported goods at the expense of the competitivenes...

The next battle of Tax Reform and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Apr 2024

This will be a slower week in Brasília due to the holiday (May 1). The Senate may vote on bills that deal with Perse and the R$15 billion credit for the Executive Office. The Ministry of Finance may present an estimate of the impact of the tax burden based on the regulations sent to Congress. ...

Counting on Luck
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Apr 2024

With the so-called New Fiscal Framework, the government hoped to gain credibility regarding the performance of public accounts through a promise to generate a dynamic of expenditures versus revenues consistent with stabilization of the federal debt. However, the fragility of its bases was evident...

Good spots and prospects
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Apr 2024

El Salvador grew faster than expected in 2023 and, under optimistic and somewhat daring assumptions about economic policy decision-making this year, it could maintain those positive economic results during the outlook period. During this second administration of President Nayib Bukele, we expect ...

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