Preliminary results: CHP juggernaut steamrolls over AKP

TURKEY - In Brief 31 Mar 2024 by Atilla Yesilada

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With 55% of the votes tallied, CHP has not only kept Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir, but also edged out AKP in the national vote. While some races are still too close to call, CHP may cross the finish line with only one major loss, namely the earthquake capital Hatay. On the other hand, it seems to have stolen three major cities from AKP (Balikesir, Bursa) and MHP (Manisa). In three major cities, with roughly 50% of the votes counted, CHP incumbents/candidates are leading by at least 10 percentage points. In the focal point of the election, Istanbul, with 50% of votes counted, Imamoglu has a 10 point lead. I doubt this result could change in favor of AKP. Unless major swings occur in the coming hours of the night, this would go down the history as the most unexpected and clear-cut victory for CHP. In about an hour, Erdogan is expected to take the podium in Ankara. His defeat is so clear that I doubt he would have the courage to challenge them. Nevertheless, I’ll update our audience if he comes out swinging. Of course, I need to pour through the final tallies very closely to draw fuller implications for the months to come, yet with only 41% of the national vote, and at most 45% as determined from municipal assemblies, it just doesn’t make sense Erdogan-Bahceli to push a constitutional referendum or early elections. On the other hand, CHP could now well clamor for early elections, claiming Erdogan lost the mandate to govern the nation. Turkey doesn’t have exit polls, but pundits on a dozen TV channels blamed the defeat on inflation and rising poverty levels. This view opens up a quandary for me: Will Erdogan hold Simsek accountable, or forget all talk about another ballot an...