BRAZIL ECONOMICS
Analysts
Alexandre Schwartsman
Former Central Bank Deputy Governor
Cristina Pinotti
Former Chief Economist, DIVESPDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Inflation: bad now, higher uncertainty ahead
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Apr 2025
In recent months, there has been an acceleration in underlying inflation measures and an increase in the diffusion index. Industrial goods prices have also accelerated, reflecting the depreciation of the real throughout 2024. Since exchange rate pass-through occurs with a lag, it is possible that...
Exports: macro vs micro
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Apr 2025 · 1 response
The WTO projects a 0.2 % drop in global trade volume in 2025, and the decline could be larger if reciprocal tariffs materialize—prompting downward revisions to Brazil’s export outlook. In addition, a slowing world economy is likely to push many commodity prices lower, as seen in recent weeks. The...
Requiem for the fiscal framework
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Apr 2025
The federal government has sent the Budget Guidelines Bill (PLDO) for 2026 to Congress, outlining the broad contours of next year’s budget, as well as projecting public accounts through the middle of the next administration, in 2029.
Collateral damage
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Apr 2025
Trump’s economic policy is expected to cause a global economic slowdown. Despite the considerable uncertainty regarding the magnitude of this deceleration, it is reasonable to assume that global economic activity will perform below projections made just a few weeks ago. We estimate the impacts of...
Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Apr 2025
OVERVIEW ROUGH SEAS DEMAND A GOOD CAPTAIN The seismic effects triggered by Trump’s actions will still cause considerable damage until a new equilibrium can be reached. From tariffs calculated “on the back of the envelope” to the systematic assault on democratic institutions, the country is...
Yellow lights flashing
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 31 Mar 2025
The inflationary scenario remains challenging despite some signs of economic slowdown. The economy is expected to continue operating at full employment, maintaining inflationary pressure, as revealed by its underlying indicators. In the labor market in particular, the slow adjustment of the un...
For whom the bell tolls?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Mar 2025
The Copom Minutes from last week's meeting revealed a rather hawkish tone regarding inflation prospects, suggesting that—even in the absence of guidance for meetings beyond May—the monetary tightening cycle is unlikely to end in the next meeting. We maintain the view expressed in our commentar...
Global uncertainty and local risk
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Mar 2025
Uncertainty is the key term when it comes to the economic outlook. While there are still significant domestic challenges, the biggest concerns stem from the global scenario, reflecting the radical shift in U.S. policy with the beginning of Trump’s second administration. Although changes in tra...
Cards close to the chest
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Mar 2025
As expected, the Copom raised the Selic target rate from 13.25% to 14.25% per year, citing the adverse inflation scenario, reflected in still-elevated projections. Regarding its next moves, the Committee signaled its intention—should the expected scenario materialize—to persist with the monetary ...