BRAZIL ECONOMICS

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Country Analysts

Affonso Pastore
Former Central Bank President
Cristina Pinotti
Former Chief Economist, DIVESP

In The News

Databank

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Recent Country Insights

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Very weak economic activity at the start of 2019
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 18 Mar 2019
After growing only 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2018, or 1.1% in the year average (the same as in 2017), the economy has still not shown any signs of improvement this year. None of the numbers disclosed up through last week (industrial production, real retail sales and real revenues from service...

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Slow recovery and the impulse from the Pension Reform
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 11 Mar 2019 1 response
In the projections formulated here we assume that a pension reform near the original version proposed by Minister Guedes will be approved, creating the necessary conditions, in the second half of the year, for the Central Bank to administer an additional monetary stimulus dose, cutting the SELIC ...

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When, and under what conditions, can the SELIC rate be reduced?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 11 Mar 2019
In face of the an extremely slow cyclical recovery and inflation below the target, soon enough we will hear clamors for a new monetary easing cycle. Curiously, there is clear evidence that the current SELIC rate is already providing a good dose of monetary stimulus. As we showed in our report of ...

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An extremely slow recovery
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 01 Mar 2019
​The Brazilian economy is still experiencing an extremely slow cyclical recovery. This is not due to the absence of monetary stimulus: after all, the neutral real interest rate perceived by the market is in the ballpark of 4%, above the one-year ex ante real rate, which is the figure that is rele...

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Exchange rate and pension reform
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 25 Feb 2019
Bets on the exchange rate are frequent, and in general extreme. In July 2018 and thereabouts, some observers were predicting the real would be as weak as R$ 4.50/US$, and now some affirm that if the pension reform proposal (with what terms?) is approved, the real will strengthen to R$ 3.00/US$. B...

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Pension reform and fiscal consolidation
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 25 Feb 2019
If the pension reform proposal sent to Congress by the Bolsonaro administration is approved in full, it will generate savings of a bit over R$ 1 trillion in 10 years, a larger figure than that of the original proposal from the Temer government. Any dilution of this proposal by Congress will have ...

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Revision of the growth estimates
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 18 Feb 2019
In light of the data released last week, the best estimate is that GDP variation in the fourth quarter of 2018 was nil. With this, our estimate of growth for last year has fallen from 1.3% to 1.1%, and based on this alteration and the latest coinciding indicators, we have to revise our previous g...

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Synthesis of the Brazilian economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 11 Feb 2019
The prolonged hospitalization of President Bolsonaro, without taking a formal leave of office, has paralyzed part of the government, accentuating internal conflicts. The latest information indicates he will be released in the next few days, after which his actions and governing style will tend to...

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Monetary easing in the second half of 2019?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 11 Feb 2019
The SELIC rate will remain at 6.5% for the time being, but a scenario of monetary easing in the second half of the year is starting to take shape. The GDP growth projections for 2019, which were around 2.5%, are being revised downward, and even with approval of a robust pension reform (in the bes...

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