BRAZIL ECONOMICS
Analysts
Alexandre Schwartsman
Former Central Bank Deputy Governor
Cristina Pinotti
Former Chief Economist, DIVESPDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
An economy on farm support
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Mar 2026
There were no surprises this time: GDP growth in the fourth quarter of last year reached 0.1%, slightly above the previous quarter (0.0%, revised from 0.1%), bringing growth in 2025 to 2.3%, compared to 3.4% in 2024. Domestic demand, the main driver of aggregate demand expansion in 2024, showe...
Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Mar 2026
February, an even shorter month due to the Carnival holidays, was marked by heightened tension among the three branches of government, with no indication that the worst is over − meaning more uncertainty and political risks lie ahead. The main source of turbulence stems not only from the progress...
More than meets the eye
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Feb 2026
Although the presumed increase in productivity associated with the application of AI is often quoted as reason for a more aggressive stance regarding the definition of US interest rates, there are forces operating in the opposite direction. In particular, as shown both theoretically and empirical...
The kindness of strangers
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 25 Feb 2026
The Brazilian real continued its appreciation at the beginning of the year, strengthening 5.6% through the first half of February. The dollar fell below BRL 5.20/USD, reaching its lowest level since mid-2024. We believe, however, that this appreciation of the real is not grounded in an improvemen...
A pound of beans
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Feb 2026
This Special Report explores the effects of agricultural production on food-at-home inflation. The topic has become increasingly relevant when we consider two aspects: the first is the Brazilian agricultural sector robust growth , accompanied by productivity gains; the second is the importance of...
Deficits Through the Looking Glass
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Feb 2026
In 2025, the public sector nominal deficit reached BRL 1.06 trillion (8.3% of GDP), the second highest ever. Although this figure raises concern, it is not the best indicator of debt dynamics. The evolution of the debt-to-GDP ratio depends on the operational result, defined as the primary deficit...
The Most Serene Committee
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Feb 2026
The minutes of the last Copom meeting brought relatively few novelties compared to the Statement released last week, but, taken as a whole, they reinforce our conviction that the most likely scenario for monetary policy involves the beginning of the monetary easing cycle with a 0.50 p.p. cut at t...
Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Feb 2026
RISKS: WITHOUT A COMPASS, AT THE MERCY OF WINDS AND MOODS The construction of a solid institutional framework has been one of the pillars of civilization. Faced with the inevitability of uncertainty, human beings built rules to reduce it, restricting the possible choices in each situation. If ...
Here comes the sun
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Jan 2026
There was no surprise regarding Copom’s decision to maintain the target for the benchmark Selic rate at 15.00% per year. It was also expected that the post-meeting communication would unlock the door that had kept an interest rate cut remote, by removing from the statement the expression: “To en...