BRAZIL ECONOMICS
Analysts
Alexandre Schwartsman
Former Central Bank Deputy Governor
Cristina Pinotti
Former Chief Economist, DIVESPDatabanks
Events
Recent Country Insights
Under pressure
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Nov 2025
The unemployment rate has remained at its historical low in recent months, suggesting that the labor market is still quite tight. However, cooling signs have begun to emerge. When adjusting for movements in the participation rate, an increase in unemployment at the margin becomes apparent. We exp...
Losing steam
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Nov 2025
Economic activity lost strength starting in the second quarter and now shows signs cooling aggregate demand. Retail sales indicate that the payment of court-ordered debts (precatórios) was not enough to sustain a favorable outcome for consumption. Even segments more sensitive to income have shown...
There and back again
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Nov 2025 · 1 response
The minutes of the Copom meeting maintained a tone similar to that of the statement released last week: more confident regarding the convergence of inflation, yet still cautious enough to avoid prompting market movements that could anticipate the start of the easing cycle.
The mystery of industrial stagnation explained
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Nov 2025
Despite economic growth in recent years somewhat above the historical average, Brazil’s industrial sector continues to show low dynamism. Our interpretation is that one of the main obstacles to the sector’s growth is, paradoxically, the very expansionary economic policy, which stimulates demand i...
One step closer
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Nov 2025
There was no surprise regarding the Copom’s decision to keep the Selic rate at its current level of 15% per year, nor were there major changes in the language of the statement that followed the meeting, despite some progress in two (perhaps three) of the dimensions previously emphasized by the Ce...
Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Nov 2025
TERMITES IN LULA’S WORKS FROM EUPHORIA TO HANGOVER – Just like termites, the truth is stubborn and eventually surfaces at the height of the party. Happily surfing the wave of Trump’s friendly gestures and a rise in popularity — despite still-high rejection — Lula’s “luck” once again became the m...
The force awakens
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Oct 2025
The decline in the trade surplus since last year has been driven by rising imports, in line with the expansion of domestic demand. On the export side, however, relevant shifts have been observed among different trading partners. China has lost ground due to falling prices of the main commodities ...
At cross purposes
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Oct 2025
From the second quarter onward, signs of economic slowdown became increasingly evident. To ensure a consistent path toward inflation convergence at the target midpoint, it is crucial that this trend be maintained. However, the risks of interruption are far from negligible. The government has ...
Rational immunization
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Oct 2025
Economic activity has proven stronger than anticipated in recent years, despite expectations of a slowdown in light of monetary policy supposedly operating in a restrictive stance. The repeated forecasting errors observed over the past four years also suggest a certain degree of persistence. ...