BRAZIL ECONOMICS
Analysts
Alexandre Schwartsman
Former Central Bank Deputy Governor
Cristina Pinotti
Former Chief Economist, DIVESPDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Continuous cycle
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Aug 2026
The Copom Minutes are, overall, more dovish than its previous version pertaining to the June meeting. Even so, although we expect the Selic rate target reach 13.75% per annum at the end of the year, that is, 0.25 p.p. below its current level, we do not have sufficient elements to determine whethe...
Contradictory signals
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Aug 2026
Real wage decline in the second quarter comes in the context of an unemployment rate still near historical lows. This behavior of real income was not driven solely by inflation, which did in fact accelerate in the second quarter, but rather by a sharp slowdown in nominal wages. However, with a ti...
Lost horizon
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Aug 2026
Once again, there was no surprise in the decision regarding the target for the Selic rate, which, we believe, may be an important part of the current monetary policy problem. The Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) reduced the benchmark interest rate by 0.25 p.p., to 14% per year, and “understands ...
Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Aug 2026
THE FROGS AND THE SCORPION As the nominal public deficit reached 10% of GDP in the 12 months ended in June, what previously concerned only economists, part of the financial market, and a few politicians has spilled over into broader circles, reaching the electoral arena.
High Tide
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Jul 2026
Brazilian long-term real interest rates remain high, and a significant share of the recent increase originates from external factors. There is a stable long-run relationship between Brazilian and U.S. interest rates, with the latter having risen substantially since 2022. The interest rate spread ...
Inflation can wait
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Jul 2026
We revisit the issue of the speed of inflation convergence to the target. We show that, even when the Central Bank’s inflation projections, based on the Selic rate path expected by market analysts, are above the target, the Copom very rarely makes a decision different from those anticipated in th...
One candle for God; another for the devil
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Jul 2026
High-frequency data show a slowdown in economic activity in the second quarter, although some sectors remain resilient. This outcome is consistent with the current scenario, which combines restrictive monetary policy with fiscal, parafiscal and credit stimuli moving in the opposite direction. Muc...
Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Jul 2026
The past few weeks, emptied out by the holidays during the World Cup matches, school vacations, and the judicial and parliamentary recesses, have favored the persistence of a frozen electoral scenario, with Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro competing for the lead in opinion polls depending on the tone of...
2026 ELECTIONS: The Candidates
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Jul 2026
Opinion polls on voter preferences regarding presidential candidates continue to reflect a frozen scenario between the two extremes - Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro - with the lead oscillating according to the news flow. At the moment, after the revelations of Flavio's involvement with Daniel Vorcaro,...