BRAZIL ECONOMICS
Analysts
Alexandre Schwartsman
Former Central Bank Deputy Governor
Cristina Pinotti
Former Chief Economist, DIVESPDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
We’re gonna need a bigger boat…
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Jan 2026
There is considerable debate regarding Brazil’s growth potential. Despite a visible acceleration of the Brazilian economy in the post-pandemic period, when GDP grew around 3% per year, we have argued that a considerable portion of this performance is due to the utilization of previously idle reso...
The deficit and the debt
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Jan 2026
The Minister of Finance, seeking to defend his legacy (an arduous task, I acknowledge), stated in an interview that “public debt is increasing because of high interest rates, not because of the deficit”. This is not true, as we will show in this Report. The primary deficits recorded in 2023, 2024...
Not so fast
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Jan 2026
The disinflationary process observed in 2025 was largely driven by the strong appreciation of the real and favorable food price dynamics. Going forward, the Central Bank will have to bring inflation back to target through the ongoing slowdown in activity and through a weakening of the labor marke...
In the final stretch
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Dec 2025
The tone of the Copom Minutes, released yesterday, was somewhat more upbeat in its assessment of the prospective inflation scenario than that conveyed in the Statement following the meeting, but, even so, without elements that would allow us to affirm, as we had come to believe, that the beginnin...
What lies ahead
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 15 Dec 2025
The slowdown of the economy in 2025, reflected in growth around 2.3% for this year versus 3.4% last year, should continue in 2026. In our central scenario, output expansion next year should be around 1.8%, still reflecting the effect of higher interest rates on domestic demand. Indeed, the combi...
Copy & paste
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Dec 2025
BCB’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) kept, as widely expected, the target for the benchmark Selic rate at 15% per year, but the policy rate was not the only element that remained unchanged after the meeting. The statement released immediately after the decision—which anticipates some of the...
Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Dec 2025
LULA 4: A SAMPLE OF THE COMING TIDAL WAVE What was expected to be a calm year-end came to an abrupt halt on Friday, December 5, with a clear sample of the uncertainty and risk that will accompany us into 2026. Equities were 4.31% down, reversing the previous mood of euphoria — or “overbought” ...
Easy does it
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Dec 2025
Brazil’s GDP grew 0.1% in the third quarter, slightly below median forecasts (0.2%). While household consumption also increased 0.1%, both government consumption (1.3%) and investment (0.9%) performed better, resulting in a 0.4% increase in domestic demand—which accelerated compared to the second...
Bad moon rising
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Dec 2025
Brazil’s fiscal situation is fragile and requires deep adjustments. Although the government should meet its target in 2025, not only has the target itself lost its meaning, but—yet more importantly—the result remains far from satisfactory, with a growing primary deficit feeding the rapid expansio...