Country Analysts

Affonso Pastore
Former Central Bank President
Cristina Pinotti
Former Chief Economist, DIVESP

In The News


Click here to access the latest Macroeconomic Databank


LatAm 2022 Outlook: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico...
Friday, December 10, 2021

Recent Country Insights

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Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 29 Nov 2021
​The recent discovery of a new Covid variant in Africa, called Omicron, has made hopes and plans for a more relaxed and festive holiday season uncertain. The large number of new mutations seems to indicate an increased dissemination pace, although there is no evidence yet of more severe symptoms....

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Trade Balance and Balance of Payments
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 22 Nov 2021
The recession of 2020 undermined imports, contributing to a steep decline in the current accounts, which were not sufficient to offset the outflow of capital. With this, the balance of payments was negative, while the foreign exchange flows were partly satisfied by sales of the Central Bank in th...

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Now The Ball is in The Central Bank’s Court
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 16 Nov 2021
Although Precatórios PEC destructed the fragile fiscal framework, the reactions of the foreign exchange and interest rate markets have been moderately positive. The explanation is cynically simple: “It could be worse”. With this, the Real appreciated, closing last week at R$5.45/US$, and at the l...

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What is The True Dimension of The Fiscal Problem?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 08 Nov 2021
When one speaks of fiscal unanchoring, the fear immediately arises that the country is once again headed toward “fiscal dominance”. This is not the case now, and the main reason is that the Central Bank is now formally independent and will use the instrument within its grasp – the SELIC rate – to...

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Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 01 Nov 2021
The news about the evolution of the pandemic in Brazil continues to be upbeat: the seven-day moving average of the number of deaths is stable at around 300, and 74% of the population has received at least one vaccine dose, while 55% have completed the immunization cycle. However, there are big di...

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The De Facto End of the Spending Cap and the Central Bank’s Reaction
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 26 Oct 2021
Last week, the spending cap rule ended. The increase of the Bolsa Família program and other transfers to the needy is only part of the spending increase, whose real objective is to increase the president’s popularity and satisfy his congressional base. As could not otherwise have occurred, the ri...

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Inflation, and Interventions in the Foreign Exchange Market?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 18 Oct 2021
For some time the financial market clung to the notion that the increase of the interest rate, necessary to bring inflation to the target, would attract capital, appreciating the Real and helping the Central Bank in its task. However, since the start of the monetary tightening cycle in March, thi...

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Problems Involving the Discrepancy of the Data in the Trade Balance
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 18 Oct 2021
Until 2017, the data on imports and exports gathered by the Secretariat of Foreign Commerce (Secex) of the Ministry of the Economy and by the Central Bank had few discrepancies. Since 2018, however, the two data series have been increasingly deviating from each other. While in 2020, the Secex reg...

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Monetary Policy – The Hour of Truth
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 12 Oct 2021
To satisfy the inflation target at the end of 2022, after having attained the level of 8.25% at the end of 2021, the Central Bank will have to raise the SELIC rate to 9.5% at the start of next year. The cost of a “sufficiently restrictive” monetary policy will be to keep the GDP gap open during a...

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