BRAZIL ECONOMICS

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Country Analysts

Affonso Pastore
Former Central Bank President
Cristina Pinotti
Former Chief Economist, DIVESP

In The News

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Recent Country Insights

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Synthesis of the Brazilian economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 14 Jan 2019
Overview During the election campaign, Bolsonaro avoided talking about economic issues, alleging lack of knowledge of the subject. He stated that the questions should be put to Paulo Guedes. However, after assuming office, he provoked some unnecessary and costly clashes by revealing his intention...

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Industrial production still shows no signs of reaction
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 14 Jan 2019
Acceleration of the cyclical recovery will require expansion of gross fixed capital formation, leading to a better labor market and thus faster growth of household consumption. Although there are some favorable conditions, such as the low real interest rate and reduced indebtedness of companies, ...

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The labor market and the cyclical recovery
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 07 Jan 2019
The consensus projections are for modest acceleration of the cyclical recovery. The main impulse should come from fixed capital investment, and the strength of its propagation to boost consumption will depend crucially on improvement in the labor market, whose behavior will be continually monitor...

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Trade surpluses: High also in 2019
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 17 Dec 2018
The mercantilist view that high trade surpluses are good for Brazil collapses when considering that their growth since the end of 2015 has largely been due to the reduction of imports, generated by the precipitous decline of fixed capital investments. Exports have also grown in the period, benefi...

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Better perspectives in the midst of internal and external risks
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Forecast 10 Dec 2018 1 response
Executive Summary Our projections for 2019 are for GDP growth of 2.4% (versus 1.3% in 2018), with inflation of 4% (thus below the target of 4.25%), and the SELIC rate kept at 6.5% throughout the year. Cyclical recovery will thus accelerate, but the GDP gap will remain in negative territory, leadi...

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Subdued inflation and low interest rates: The positive legacy left for the new government
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 10 Dec 2018
The combination of low inflation and low interest rates for an extended period is an inheritance that leaves no reason for the new government to complain. In November a new “surprise” occurred, with inflation finishing below the median of projections, giving another clear indication of no inflati...

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Synthesis of the Brazilian economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 03 Dec 2018
OVERVIEW By nominating Judge Sergio Moro to be the new minister of justice, with carte blanche to propose a program to fight corruption and organized crime, Bolsonaro allayed fears that his oft-times antidemocratic utterances made during the campaign might be put into practice. At the same time h...

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The cyclical recovery continues, but is still slow
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 03 Dec 2018
The publication of the official GDP figures for the third quarter shows that the cyclical recovery remains in progress, but is still sluggish. Growth in the quarter was 0.8%, after having inched upward by 0.2% in each of the two previous quarters. As is usual in the announcements of third-quarter...

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Brazil Conference Call: Challenges facing the new government
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 28 Nov 2018
What are the most important economic challenges facing the Bolsonaro government? How will it move the economy from a sluggish recovery to accelerating growth? Can it achieve the fiscal consolidation necessary to alter the current debt/GDP trajectory?