GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

With our weekly on holiday, we thought a brief update on the recent data releases could prove useful. The economy is looking more stagflationary: activity and employment have both stalled, yet inflation has hardly budged from 30%+ levels. Disgruntlement in the business community is growing, to...

Fujimori government enjoys an auspicious start; Economy Minister Cuba outlines his economic reform program; December inflation forecast revised up, risking a policy hike; and long end of the Soberanos curve price under pressure from fiscal risks

PERU · Report · 18 Aug 2026

This report covers the first days of the new national government under President Keiko Fujimori. The first section discusses the first set of opinion polls, and the challenges that the new administration faces. Next, we discuss the economy, and review the May and June real GDP reports, which conf...

The latest presidential poll shows that the race is statistically tied, the investigation into Lula’s son continues, and Caiado replaced his campaign strategist yesterday

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Aug 2026

Yesterday, a new Nexus/BTG Pactual poll on the presidential election was released. It showed President Lula (PT) with 41% of first-round voting intentions. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) has 36%. In a hypothetical runoff, Lula is numerically ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro, 47% to 44%. However, the race...

Economics: Following the Q2 GDP rebound, a slowdown is expected in the second half of the year

MEXICO · Report · 18 Aug 2026

Second-quarter 2026 GDP growth surprised to the upside at 2.1% annually, but the strength came almost entirely from volatile or previously depressed components — mining, agriculture, residential construction, wholesale trade, and health services — that are unlikely to sustain their momentum throu...

Essential CIS Politics: August 4 - 18, 2026

CIS POLITICS · Report · 18 Aug 2026

Major headlines: Ukraine war overview: Russian forces made limited advances amid intensified fighting near Mala Tokmachka, Orikhiv and the fortress-belt cities, while both sides conducted long-range strikes on rear and civilian targets. Peace negotiations overview: Ukraine submitted proposa...

Statistics suggest economy keeps growing in 7M26 fast enough, albeit growth moderates

KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 17 Aug 2026

Recent economic and financial data show that Kazakhstan’s economy is still performing fairly well, though perhaps falling a bit short of expectations, with GDP in the first half of 2026 up 4.1% year-on-year and the short-term indicator - a monthly measure of activity across six key sectors - risi...

Heavy burden

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Aug 2026

Economic activity slowed more than anticipated despite several stimulus measures announced for this year, concentrated in particular on credit extension. We see two kinds of limitations. First, the credit channel depends on institutions that select borrowers according to their own criteria, which...

Weekly report, August 17, 2026: Strong macroeconomic data meets political and geopolitical woes

ISRAEL · Report · 17 Aug 2026

Key headlines: * Israel’s macroeconomic fundamentals continued to surprise positively. July inflation declined to 1.5%, while Q2 GDP rebounded by 15.9% annualized, much more strongly than expected. * The September 1 Bank of Israel decision is becoming a close call. Strong growth, rapid wage...

The end of dual power: the Constitutional Court rejected all three remaining Fidesz motions today

HUNGARY · In Brief · 17 Aug 2026

Following the rejection of a Fidesz motion to reverse the re-nationalisation of public interest trusts the other day, all three remaining motions handed in by Fidesz were rejected by the Court today. As a result, President Baka remains in office, rather than former president Mr. Sulyok being put ...

Campaign kickoff—Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro’s proposals and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Aug 2026

This week's Talking Points: • Lula and Flávio kick off their campaigns. On the first day of the official election campaign, President Lula (PT) and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) adopted different strategies. At a political rally held at Vila Euclides Stadium in the ABC region of São Paulo, Lu...

Politics: Homicides declined in 2025, but the real numbers and the effectiveness of the government's strategy remain in question

MEXICO · Report · 17 Aug 2026

INEGI's preliminary 2025 homicide figures (27,989, a rate of 21.4 per 100,000 inhabitants) confirm a genuine decline in intentional homicides, but one considerably smaller than the government claims. A gap of over 4,300 cases separates INEGI's count from the SNSP's. The gap is rooted in divergent...

Argentina's recovery-drivers, risks and timing - Slide presentation and webinar replay

ARGENTINA · Presentation · 17 Aug 2026

How will Argentina navigate the tradeoff between disinflation and economic growth in the second half of 2026? Can steady or rising dollar demand destabilize the peso ahead of the presidential election? Can MECON's financing program ameliorate investor concerns about reserve accumulation and credi...

The official campaign period began this Sunday and will run through October 1, Alcolumbre said he would move forward with the 6x1 work schedule proposal, and two presidential polls will be released this week

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Aug 2026

The campaign period officially began this Sunday (August 16) and will run through October 1, three days before the first round of the election. Radio and television campaign advertising begins on August 28 and will also run through October 1. Last week, President Lula (PT) met with Senate Preside...

Bracing for a comprehensive Black Sea seaports blockade

UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 Aug 2026

We are heading toward a complete blockade of Black Sea seaports, affecting both Ukraine and Russia. To understand what's happening, let's start with a broader view of the battlefield in Russia's war against Ukraine. Russian forces on the ground have effectively stalled, with no meaningful advance...

GULF WEEKLY: Hormuz deal stalls, Kuwait’s oil production rebounds, Qatar LNG loadings rise

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 14 Aug 2026

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * There were no direct US-Iran strikes, but rhetoric was heated, and a Hormuz deal was not finalized. * Iran fired on three Adnoc tankers, and the US fired on a cargo ship heading for Iran. * The Houthis repeatedly struck A...