GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

We frame Mexico's macroeconomic outlook for 2026-2030 around four scenarios, the probabilities of which point to a predominantly adverse picture. The most likely scenario (50%) is the inertial one, in which government policy remains largely unchanged: the erosion of the rule of law — reflecte...

Weekly report, August 24, 2026: Nvidia boosts Israel’s GDP growth, rate cut remains a close call, Netanyahu strengthens his grip on Likud

ISRAEL · Report · 24 Aug 2026

New CBS data show a widening gap between Israel’s headline GDP and domestic growth, largely reflecting Nvidia-related production abroad. We have revised our 2026 forecast, with GDP growth at 4.2% and exports rising 10.2%. The weaker domestic picture strengthens the case for monetary easing, but f...

The economy and corruption threaten Lula's lead and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Aug 2026

The government may submit the proposed 2027 federal budget and a provisional measure on the Selective Tax to Congress. On Friday (Aug. 28), free electoral advertising on radio and television begins. Four presidential polls are expected (Nexus, Gerp, Indexa, and PoderData), along with a series of ...

The Half Empty Glass

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Aug 2026

Gross public debt is expected to reach 83% of GDP by year-end, largely due to interest expenses. The real interest rate, however, is also a result of fiscal policy, which has affected the cost of debt at both short and long maturities. The recent increase in long-term international interest rates...

The first presidential debate was held yesterday, free campaign time on TV and radio will begin on Friday, and several new polls will be released throughout the week

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Aug 2026

Yesterday, Band hosted the first debate among the candidates for president of Brazil. Only three candidates participated: Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), Renan Santos (Missão), and Augusto Cury (Avante). Lula is expected to avoid debates during the first round. Free electoral advertising on radio and telev...

In an end to an era, Jamaica changes its Central Bank Governor the week before Jackson Hole in Wyoming

JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 24 Aug 2026

Last week, Dr Brian Langrin succeeded Richard Byles as governor of the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ). Byles’ seven-year term, which began August 19, 2019, concluded on August 18, 2026. If one includes his time as co-chair of the Economic Programme Oversight Committee (EPOC), this marks the end of an era....

Politics: Implications of the U.S. visa revocation for AMLO's son

MEXICO · Report · 24 Aug 2026

The revocation of the U.S. visa of AMLO´s eldest son, known as “Andy”, was a low-cost, secretive, and unexplained administrative measure targeting a man with no formal government role that triggered a political crisis wildly disproportionate to the act itself, exposing deep fractures within Mexic...

Electricity production at Paks nuclear power plant to be restored to full capacity this week

HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Aug 2026

Currently, Paks is producing at nearly three-fourth of its full capacity (see the Chart below). Within the next two days, output is going to be restored to full capacity, according to current plans.Output at the Paks nuclear power plant at 11:53 CEST on August 24, 2026Source: Portfolio.huPrevious...

GULF WEEKLY: UAE bans trade with Iran, PIF’s profits double, Bahrain’s FX reserves recover

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 21 Aug 2026

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * As the MoU deadline expired, Trump threatened secondary sanctions on countries trading with Iran. * Trump also threatened to bomb Oman in an interview, without details. * Two bulk carriers were hit, and the UAE cut trade ...

The PGR asked the STF to send the investigation into Lulinha to a lower court, the first presidential debate is scheduled for Sunday, and free campaign time on TV and radio will begin next week

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Aug 2026

The Office of the Prosecutor General (PGR) has asked the Supreme Federal Court (STF) to send to a lower court the investigations into the alleged involvement of Fábio Luís Lula da Silva, known as “Lulinha”, the son of President Lula (PT), as well as allegations involving Dataprev and an attempted...

More red flags on the external payments front

PHILIPPINES · Report · 21 Aug 2026

The Philippines’ external position is flashing red but not yet in crisis. The US$5.3-billion January–July BOP deficit and the decline in GIR to US$103.3 billion warrant vigilance. However, reserves remain substantial at 6.7 months of imports and 3.7 times short-term external debt. The bigger i...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Uzbekistan’s fiscal reset gains traction

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 21 Aug 2026

I have in the last two weeks combed through the almost 200-page 2027-2029 Fiscal Strategy (in Uzbek only) released by the Uzbek Ministry of Economy and Finance. It has been a laborious, yet worthwhile exercise. My key takeaway is that Uzbekistan is turning fiscal discipline from a one-off cor...

An opportunity to demonstrate statesman’s capabilities

ECUADOR · Forecast · 21 Aug 2026

President Noboa is obliged to maintain a difficult political equilibrium between Washington and China. He was officially invited to visit China by Xi Jinping, but while both Noboa and Trump have mentioned their excellent relations with Ecuador, and Noboa has visited Mar-a-Lago unofficially, he ha...

Market Testing Philippine Macroeconomic Resilience

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 21 Aug 2026

The peso nearly breached ₱62 to the dollar on August 19, touching an intraday record low of ₱61.995 before recovering slightly to close at ₱61.815. The sell-off was not confined to foreign exchange: Philippine equities and fixed-income markets also turned jittery. Peso-Dollar Rate: January 5 to A...

Production abroad, led by Nvidia, is becoming a significant driver of Israel’s GDP growth

ISRAEL · In Brief · 21 Aug 2026

The release of the Q2 national accounts has renewed the discussion over the growing impact of production abroad by Israeli companies on Israel’s GDP, and particularly the contribution of Mellanox, acquired by Nvidia in 2020, to recent GDP growth. The discussion intensified after the CBS began pub...