GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Mexico's justice system faces a structural crisis of historic proportions, one that now carries direct geopolitical consequences. The US demand to extradite ten ruling-party politicians linked to criminal organizations has forced President Sheinbaum into an impossible dilemma: complying risks a s...

Weekly report, June 29, 2026: Netanyahu prepares for a post-election deadlock; markets reassess geopolitical risk, AI valuations, and the upcoming Bank of Israel rate decision

ISRAEL · Report · 29 Jun 2026

Executive Summary - Netanyahu's agreement with the ultra-Orthodox parties appears aimed at preserving the Likud-ultra-Orthodox bloc after the elections. With current polls pointing to the loss of the coalition's parliamentary majority, the agreement reduces the likelihood that the ultra-Ortho...

The government's new bet and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Jun 2026

Senator Flávio Bolsonaro will host a gathering of conservative women in Brasília. Former First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro is expected to attend the event. The Senate will debate the constitutional amendment proposal to end the 6-on-1 work schedule. It is also expected to vote on the provisional meas...

No further room

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Jun 2026

The inflation and labor market data released last week, although pointing to some signs of weakening, are insufficient to support the continuation of Selic rate cuts. The Central Bank's projections do not guarantee convergence of inflation to the target in early 2028 with a cut in August. In the ...

Lula will launch the Desenrola program for financially compliant consumers, public officials will have certain electoral restrictions starting July 4, and the Senate will hold a plenary debate on the 6x1 work schedule proposal

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Jun 2026

President Lula has a busy schedule this week. Today, he will launch the Desenrola program for financially compliant consumers, aimed at individuals who keep their bill payments up to date. Beginning Saturday, July 4, certain actions by public officials will be prohibited due to the October electi...

Economics: June data signal persistent economic weakness, policy uncertainty, and rising fiscal risks

MEXICO · Report · 29 Jun 2026

Mexico's economy continues to underperform in 2026, with our GDP growth forecast at just 0.9% for the full year. Private investment has contracted for 19 consecutive months and is expected to remain weak throughout the year, held back by uncertainty — including about the USMCA renegotiation and t...

Rethinking Argentina's 2026–27 external financing gap

ARGENTINA · Report · 29 Jun 2026

Back in January, I argued that the combined US dollar debt obligations of the National Treasury and the Central Bank (BCRA) appeared too large relative to the Milei administration's capacity to finance them through the end of the presidential term. Six months later, that situation looks considera...

No snap elections in 2026, thus spoke the politics author

TURKEY · Report · 28 Jun 2026

Despite objections from Greek and Israeli lobbies, the NATO Ankara summit is poised to turn into a love-fest between Messrs. Trump and Erdogan, with parties exchanging numerous gifts. Trump’s expected favors to Turkey could help scale up the defense industry and rebuild enough trust in Ankara to ...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil back to pre-war level, Qatar suffers major gas accident, Bahrain’s FX reserves slide

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 26 Jun 2026

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil dipped to $72, its pre-war level, as Hormuz transits picked up, despite an attack on a cargo ship. * US-Iran talks at a Qatari hotel in Switzerland seemed to make some progress. * Gulf foreign ministers engaged with I...

Outlook on inflation and the exchange rate

INDIA · Report · 26 Jun 2026

The emergence of a moderate-to-strong El Niño phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific during mid-2026 has impacted upon the monsoon and food price outlook for this year. Earlier it was just a forecast, but by late June we are seeing a significant cumulative precipitation deficit which would constrai...

Even if war ends soon, expect future negative economic impacts

CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 26 Jun 2026

Higher inflation and lower economic growth globally are the foreseeable international trends for this year, as a sequel to the Iran war. Those outlooks will hardly change before 2027, whether or not the Middle East conflict ends soon, because the direct and secondary effects on oil and other comm...

Michelle Bolsonaro’s video continues to cause political fallout, the STF may rule on a case limiting benefits received by senior public officials, and electoral restrictions begin on July 4

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Jun 2026

The video of former First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro criticizing Senator and PL presidential hopeful Flávio Bolsonaro continues to generate political fallout. Rumors have emerged about the possibility of replacing Flávio as the party's presidential nominee. Today, the Supreme Federal Court (STF) may...

Colombia elections and outlook for the next administration - Slide presentation and webinar replay

COLOMBIA · Presentation · 26 Jun 2026

Get insight into the result of the presidential runoff election, the next administration's priorities and the impact on Colombia's outlook with the slide presentation and replay from our recent webinar, "Colombia elections and outlook for the next administration".

Kyrgyzstan has yet to convincingly rein in opaque trade flows

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 26 Jun 2026 · 1 response

I must admit that I have a soft spot for Kyrgyzstan's BoP data. It is probably the most exciting set of external flows from an analytical perspective in my CCA region and a treasury trove for drawing conclusions about Bishkek's efforts to clamp down on opaque trade with Russia. The analysis is, o...

Senator Jaques Wagner will step down as government leader in the Senate, Former First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro posted a video about Flávio Bolsonaro, and former President Jair Bolsonaro's house arrest ends today

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Jun 2026

After meeting with President Lula (PT) on Wednesday (June 24), Senator Jaques Wagner (PT-BA) announced that he will step down as the government's leader in the Senate. Wagner's departure had been expected and comes as no surprise. Former First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) posted a video statement...