GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

The key environmental audit of the copper mine will be out at the end of this week. After a two month period for national discussion, President José Raúl Mulino will, on July 1, present the strategy for reopening of the mine. We discuss the executive, legislative and judicial challenges Panama wi...

UAExit: A deep dive into why the UAE quit OPEC+ and the implications

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 30 Apr 2026

The fundamental reason for the UAE’s decision to leave OPEC/OPEC+ was that it had been frustrated for years with overly onerous production quotas, which required it to bear a substantially larger share of the burden of balancing the oil market than other OPEC+ members. The surprising thing is not...

The sea steers BCB

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 30 Apr 2026

As widely expected, Copom decided to reduce the target for the policy interest rate again by 0.25 p.p., from 14.75% to 14.50% per year, even in the face of higher inflation projections for the relevant horizon. BCB made it clear that it attributes the deterioration to the effects of the confli...

The Future of the Chinese Economy and the Iran War

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 30 Apr 2026

The Iran War has both short and long-term implications for China’s growth and global position. 1) The immediate economic consequences due to disruption to oil imports is the lesser of China’s concerns due to stockpiling and alternative energy. 2) The more significant consequence is the i...

The Senate rejected Messias’s nomination to the STF, tomorrow is a federal holiday, and several key items are on the political agenda for next week

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Apr 2026

The Senate rejected the nomination of Attorney General Jorge Messias to the Supreme Federal Court (STF), a major defeat for the government and a strong message to the Court. The Senate floor vote came as a surprise even to senators from the PL party. Tomorrow is a federal holiday for Labor Day, a...

Economic growth seemingly accelerated in March, but was accompanied by statistical quirks

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 30 Apr 2026

Yesterday, Rosstat reported that the aggregate output of the five basic sectors, such as industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, and trade, declined y-o-y by 0.7% in 1Q26. However, in March alone it was up by 2.2% and seemingly pointed to a significant improvement in the economic sit...

Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 30 Apr 2026

Last Friday, the CBR cut the key rate by 50 bps to 14.5%. The decision was widely expected as inflation continued to decelerate in recent weeks, pulling inflation expectations down. Simultaneously, the regulator reiterated the forecast for GDP growth in 2026 (0.5-1.5%) and offered a narrower rang...

Bank of Israel Governor: Inflation at target midpoint; rate cuts likely once or twice, fiscal policy will push debt higher

ISRAEL · In Brief · 29 Apr 2026

The Governor of the Bank of Israel spoke yesterday at a conference held by the Aaron Institute. He stressed the resilience of the Israeli economy during the recent shocks, as reflected in financial indicators, private consumption data (credit-card spending), and tax revenues. The Governor noted t...

Navigating the shock, waiting for momentum

CHILE · Report · 29 Apr 2026

GDP decelerated sharply in H2 2025, and this weakness extended into early 2026. Growth would need to gain significant momentum in the coming months to reach an average of 2% for 2026. In addition to weak data for the first months of the year, the economy is facing a negative income shock from hig...

Tisza won with an extraordinarily strong mandate

HUNGARY · Forecast · 29 Apr 2026

The opposition Tisza party, founded only two years ago, achieved a sweeping victory at the regular parliamentary election held early this month. Actually, it won the strongest mandate seen since the fall of communism in 1990. Tisza now has a comfortable two-thirds supermajority, meaning it can am...

Motta announced the rapporteur of the special committee on the 6x1 work schedule, the CCJ will hold a confirmation hearing today for Messias, and the Central Bank will decide on the benchmark interest rate (Selic)

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Apr 2026

The President of the Lower House, Hugo Motta (Republicanos–PB), announced yesterday that Federal Deputy Leo Prates (Republicanos–BA) will serve as rapporteur of the special committee reviewing the proposed constitutional amendment (PEC) that would end the 6x1 work schedule. The Senate’s Constitut...

Surprisingly resilient

CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Apr 2026

El Salvador’s 2025 economic performance was better than expected, given global economic and geopolitical turbulence. The growth engines were both private and public investment, reflected in the extraordinary construction boom, and in foreign remittances that soared by almost 18% y/y. We also expe...

The base rate remains unchanged, the tenge strengthens more

KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 28 Apr 2026

On April 24, the National Bank of Kazakhstan decided to keep the base rate unchanged at 18% despite inflation decelerating in March. It fell y-o-y to 11.0% and m-o-m to 0.6% (from 11.7% and 1.7% in February). Commenting on the decision, the NBK Chairman praised the consistency of monetary policy ...

Governor Varga did not appear to be pushing for a stronger forint at today's press conference

HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Apr 2026

The Monetary Council held the base rate unchanged at 6.25% today. The Council discussed only the 'hold' proposal, and the vote was unanimous. This was not at all surprising; the more interesting part of the day was Governor Varga's press conference.There will likely be different interpretations o...

Durigan said lower interest rates should be offered to combat household debt, he also highlighted tighter restrictions on betting activities, and the Nexus/BTG poll shows that the presidential race remains polarized

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Apr 2026

Following a meeting with CEOs of financial institutions yesterday, April 27, Finance Minister Dario Durigan said there is a consensus between the ministry and banks to offer lower interest rates under the new program to combat household debt. He projected discounts of up to 90% across categories ...