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Country Insights

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2Q GDP growth slows to 7.4%
PHILIPPINES - In Brief 09 Aug 2022

The Philippine Statistics Authority reported today that GDP grew 7.4% year-on-year (yoy) in 2Q. The relatively high headline growth number continues to reflect base effects, i.e., impact of pandemic and lockdowns on last year’s GDP, and is roughly in line with the 7.5% median forecast of anal...


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Ukraine announces a unit of Russian defectors
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 09 Aug 2022

Kyiv is keen to let the media know that the Ukrainian Army has recruited Russian dissidents. Some of them are Prisoners of War have been allowed to change sides. They are called the Freedom of Russia Legion (FRL). Some of them traveled to Ukraine via third countries.

The number of soldie...


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Economics: Data released in July shows weakening growth while global slowing casts a pall
MEXICO - Report 08 Aug 2022
Inegi’s preliminary estimate of second quarter GDP showed the economy continuing to cruise along at roughly the same pace as it did between January and March. The report shows continuing gains in the agricultural and service sectors but especially the secondary sector, which despite setbacks in i...

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The Central Bank’s Policy and the Growth of the Neutral Interest Rate
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 08 Aug 2022
At the last COPOM meeting, the Central Bank raised the Selic rate to 13.75% a year and did not rule out one or more new increases of lesser magnitude. Even though it is widely recognized that monetary policy is already strongly restrictive, which will lead to a decline of inflation, criticisms ex...

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Politics: Morena internal elections plagued by massive irregularities
MEXICO - Report 08 Aug 2022
Over the weekend of July 30-31, Morena held internal elections to select delegates to its national congress slated for September 17-18. The congress will elect a new National Council and National Executive Committee. This coming weekend the same delegates will meet to elect their respective state...

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Candidates' challenges on the road to the Planalto Palace and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 08 Aug 2022
This week, the government's expanded social aid programs begin. The sanction of the LDO is also expected. The Fiesp and civil society organizations publish the Letter in Defense of Democracy. In the Judiciary, emphasis is given to the resumption of the judgment on the Administrative Improbity Law...

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Fiscal adjustment remains on track in July; CPI-inflation prospects for tomorrow's data release
HUNGARY - In Brief 08 Aug 2022

The central government's cash balance was a HUF256bn surplus, which brought the cumulative seven-month deficit down to 7.4% of GDP, from H1's 9.6% and a record-high 16% in Q1. Although July tends to be a month with relatively strong fiscal cash flow, because of a quarterly peak of VAT pay...


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From Russia, with love
TURKEY - Report 08 Aug 2022
Over the last two weeks, news flow from Russia has been the subject of much attention and controversy in Turkey. Market attention on the “Russian news pipeline” began with an article in Bloomberg heralding cash transfers from Rosatom to Turkey for the construction expenses of Akkuyu nuclear react...

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The government’s social aid programs begin, tomorrow is the deadline for Bolsonaro to sanction the LDO, and latest poll shows the smallest gap between Lula and Bolsonaro
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 08 Aug 2022
The Auxílio Brasil payments will rise from R$ 400 to R$ 600, and the gas voucher will be paid at R$110. This is the government's main hope to improve its popularity ratings. The LDO was approved by Congress on July 12. Based on the premises defined by the LDO, the government will send the Federal...

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The shekel appreciates sharply, supporting lower inflation
ISRAEL - Report 08 Aug 2022
* Wage growth in the private sector continues, mostly in hi-tech and finance. * Sharp shekel appreciation and lower energy prices have pushed our inflation forecast down. * Recent escalation in violence is not expected to have any real impact on growth or on markets. A cease fire was rea...

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The shekel appreciates sharply, supporting lower inflation
ISRAEL - In Brief 07 Aug 2022

Geopolitics: Violence escalated in the region following Israel’s striking at Islamic Jihad positions (and commanders) in Gaza and subsequent firing of some 800 missiles into Israel. Israel’s Iron Dome succeeded in neutralizing 96% of those missiles approaching populated...


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Castillo reshuffles his Cabinet
PERU - In Brief 07 Aug 2022

On Friday, President Castillo reshuffled his Cabinet for the fifth time in a year of government.

Although his Prime Minister (PM), Mr. Anibal Torres, had resigned, President Castillo said on Friday that had confirmed him once again. In addition, he made 6 more changes, and the most ...


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Ukrainian nuclear power plant damaged in fighting
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 07 Aug 2022

On August 6 Ukraine said that Russia has been using the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant as a military base and firing on Ukrainian positions from there. Ukraine does not fire back at the plant for fear of causing a nuclear catastrophe. The plant has sustained major damage but it is unclear wh...


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Ukrainian grain export deal succeeding
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 07 Aug 2022

On August 5 three ships carrying a total of 80,000 tons of grain sailed out of Odessa.

On August 6 a Barbadian ship arrived in Chornomorsk, Ukraine to pick up grain. It will sail to Turkey. Several more ships are due to dock in Ukraine over the next few days. 

Chornomorsk ...


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Oil and gas in 2022: wartime resilience
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - Report 05 Aug 2022
The war in Ukraine has become a major shock for the Russian energy sector as Western countries introduced different kinds of sanctions, including an embargo on crude & petroleum products and other restrictions. The results was decline in exports and a record spread of Urals to Brent (up to $30-35...