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The U.S.–Israel war with Iran: macroeconomic and geopolitical developments - Weekly report, March 10, 2026
ISRAEL · Report · 10 Mar 2026

Headlines: - Missile attacks toward Israel have declined since the first days of the war, but Hezbollah activity on the northern front has increased. Yesterday, Hezbollah launched a missile toward central Israel, claiming it targeted a satellite communications facility. - At this stage, the t...

MNB is ready to intervene for the forint, offering the sale of FX to energy importers
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Mar 2026

The Monetary Council decided this afternoon to offer the sale of foreign currencies to energy importers, for the MNB to secure the availability of FX liquidity at the current increased level of import prices. As Vice Governor Kurali commented, they want to eliminate the risk that the market could...

Haddad will reportedly run for Governor of São Paulo, 35 senators have signed a request to install a CPI to investigate the Banco Master case, and the TSE continues to adjudicate the case against Rio Governor Castro
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Mar 2026

Finance Minister Fernando Haddad has reportedly been persuaded to run for governor of São Paulo in October. His departure from the ministry is expected to take place next week. Senator Alessandro Vieira (MDB-SE) yesterday filed a request to establish a Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry (CPI) to ...

Though Russia's strategies keep failing, the war is far from over
UKRAINE · Report · 10 Mar 2026

The military operation against Iran is welcome news for Ukraine, though not a decisive shift. Iran has been one of Russia's most valuable partners: Shahed drones built on Iranian technology have systematically devastated Ukraine's energy infrastructure, while Tehran helped Moscow evade Western sa...

The “Two Sessions” and growth expectations for 2026
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 10 Mar 2026

Special points to highlight in this report: - During this week’s Two Sessions meetings, Premier Li Qiang announced that China’s GDP growth target in 2026 would be 4.5% to 5.0%. Several economists (including myself) would have preferred a much lower, more sustainable target, but I don’t think ...

The Banco Master case: questions and answers
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Mar 2026

Are new revelations likely to intensify attention around the Banco Master case and keep it in the spotlight in the media, Congress, and social networks? Will the press continue to give the case prominent coverage? Could supporters, political allies, and operators close to President Lula and Senat...

Iranian missiles, bank trials
TURKEY · In Brief · 10 Mar 2026

I’ve bad news and good news for you. The bad news is Iran lobbing a second missile in the direction of the Incirlik Airbase. The good news is the Trump administration closing the forever-lasting Halkbank money laundering prosecution. Since I still think Iran War has weeks to go, I’m concerned abo...

Iran War Day 10: Oil whipsaws on shifting US signals
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 09 Mar 2026

Highlights The US sent conflicting signals on the war's timeline. Brent crude briefly hit $119 before retreating sharply after Trump's comments and G7 reserve-release talk, dropping below $90. Iran's new Supreme Leader adviser Kamal Kharazi told CNN there is "no room for diplomacy" and that Tehra...

February budget data show strong revenue growth
ISRAEL · In Brief · 09 Mar 2026

Against the backdrop of the war entering its 10th day, the Ministry of Finance yesterday published the budget results for February. As in previous months, the data surprised on the upside, with government revenues exceeding expectations. In real terms and at constant tax rates, tax revenues in Ja...

The Banco Master crisis is likely to escalate and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Mar 2026

The Public Security Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC) is expected to begin moving through the Senate. Banker Daniel Vorcaro may testify before the Senate Economic Affairs Committee. The Chief Justice of the Supreme Federal Court (STF), Justice Edson Fachin, will meet with court presidents t...

Economics: Indicators published in February point to a weak economic recovery for 2026, with inflation above Banxico's target and deteriorating public finances
MEXICO · Report · 09 Mar 2026

Economic indicators published in February suggest that Mexico will experience a moderate recovery in 2026 following the stagnation observed in 2025, although this rebound is shaping up to be weak and constrained by multiple obstacles. Private consumption shows signs of gradual recovery, driven la...

We’re gonna need a bigger boat
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Mar 2026

The decline in inflation has been concentrated on exchange-rate-sensitive items, but further progress depends on a slowdown in economic activity, which is already underway, and on the labor market, which, in contrast, remains resilient. Consumption appears to respond more to restrictions in the c...

Politics: Electoral Reform proposed by Sheinbaum represents a democratic setback
MEXICO · Report · 09 Mar 2026 · 1 response

On March 4, 2026, President Claudia Sheinbaum submitted her constitutional electoral reform initiative to the Chamber of Deputies, representing the final outstanding component of "Plan C" announced by Andrés Manuel López Obrador in February 2024. Following two previous failed attempts—a rejected ...

Stepping into the same river again: retail fuel prices to be administratively capped from midnight
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Mar 2026

It has just been announced that the government cabinet has decided to set an administrative cap on retail fuel prices, effective midnight today. These will be HUF595 per litre for gasoline and HUF615 per litre for diesel, in both cases for the leading products on the market. These prices will hav...

Lula has lost political capital compared to the 2022 elections, Vorcaro is expected to testify before the Senate CAE tomorrow, and the TSE will hear a case against the Governor of Rio for irregularities in his 2022 campaign
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Mar 2026

Comparing Datafolha polling from 2022 and 2026 shows that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Workers’ Party, PT) has lost political capital during this period in both first-round and runoff simulations. Bolsonarismo, in turn, has improved its performance. Daniel Vorcaro, owner of Banco Master, ...

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