GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Mexico's insecurity problem has not eased; it has changed shape. INEGI's 2026 victimization survey (ENVIPE) shows that while traditional street crimes—robbery, home burglary, vehicle theft—have fallen sharply since 2018 (down 44% as a group), fraud, extortion, and threats have surged and now acco...

Lula's bets in the final stretch and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Sep 2026

This is the second-to-last week of campaigning ahead of the elections. The Banco Master case remains the leading item on the political agenda. The Superior Council of the Federal Public Prosecutor’s Office (PGR) will discuss a proceeding examining references made by former banker Daniel Vorcaro t...

Economics: Risks intensify on multiple fronts

MEXICO · Report · 21 Sep 2026

Mexico faces an adverse external environment, with oil prices remaining elevated following the US-Iran conflict, reigniting global inflationary pressures and prompting the Fed and the European Central Bank to resume rate hikes. This compounds risks for a Mexican economy marked by structural decel...

Kazakhstan macro: the widening current account surplus to keep the tenge strong this year

KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 21 Sep 2026 · 1 response

With oil prices hovering around $100/bbl and future trends still uncertain, oil-producing countries have enjoyed extra revenues despite various disruptions to exports. Kazakhstan is one such country, with reduced oil production due to export issues via the CPC, its main oil export route. Still, w...

Yellow alert

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 21 Sep 2026

The most recent activity indicators confirm the persistence of the slowdown that began in the second quarter. The intensity of this movement is surprising given the volume of stimulus to activity in an election year. The new measures effectiveness loss is partly explained by the accumulation of s...

Lula continues to shift focus away from the STF crisis with government programs, he will speak at the UN General Assembly tomorrow, and the PGR may analyze Paulo Gonet’s relationship with Vorcaro

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Sep 2026

President Lula, weakened by corruption allegations and also by the crisis surrounding the Supreme Federal Court (STF), is trying to shift the political agenda. Last week, he announced an increase in Bolsa Família benefits. He is currently in the United States, where he has several engagements in ...

Transfers, scandals, reserves, etc.

TURKEY · Report · 20 Sep 2026

There is still almost a year and a half to the earliest date for elections, our politics author maintains, but President Erdogan has already begun planning. With constitutional talks potentially delayed to early 2027, because PKK is not laying down arms, his only viable path to re-eligibility is ...

China’s dismal fiscal position

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 18 Sep 2026

There is much talk in China these days about a K-shaped economy. Technology is growing rapidly while traditional manufacturing and other parts of the economy are declining. A technology investor from China told me he views this differently. China has an “i”-shaped economy, with technology as the ...

Anti-corruption efforts shifted to a higher gear

HUNGARY · In Brief · 18 Sep 2026

The draft budget for 2027 will be presented to the Fiscal Council, from which point it can be regarded as publicly known, on October 17, PM Magyar said today. For the average citizen, that plan will include good news and bad news alike, but possibly more bad than good, given the conflict between ...

NBU takes another tightening step, raising key policy rate to 16% amid rising inflation pressure

UKRAINE · In Brief · 18 Sep 2026

The NBU Board made one more tightening step, raising the key policy rate by 0.5 pp to 16%, effective from September 18. Inflation accelerated to 8.1% y/y in August, slightly exceeding the NBU forecast, while higher-than-expected fuel prices amid the escalation in the Middle East and intensified R...

Justice Fachin postponed the analysis of the case involving Justice Mendonça, the government announced an increase in Bolsa Família benefits, and Lula will attend the UN General Assembly next week

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Sep 2026

As expected, Supreme Federal Court (STF) Chief Justice Edson Fachin postponed consideration of the case that would assess Justice André Mendonça’s conduct as rapporteur in the Master and INSS cases. Against the backdrop of continued deterioration in the president’s approval ratings, the governmen...

Political update– September 18, 2026: Netanyahu bloc improves, but no clear path to 61

ISRAEL · Report · 18 Sep 2026

Recent polls show a modest improvement in Netanyahu’s bloc, but neither side currently has a clear path to a 61-seat majority. The shift reflects both a more efficient distribution of votes within the right-wing bloc and some movement at the margins between the two blocs. Winter appears to be att...

GULF WEEKLY: GCC-Iran meeting postponed, Saudi pipeline offline, Bahrain’s FX reserves fall

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 18 Sep 2026 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent touched $109 midweek as details emerged about damage to Saudi Arabia’s bypass pipeline. * It might return to half flow quickly, but some estimates suggest 6-8 weeks to reach full capacity. * The Houthis held onto th...

Kazakhstan macro: Budget statistics confirm economic growth remains stable

KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 18 Sep 2026

Recent economic data shows that Kazakhstan’s growth rate has steadied at around 5.0%, easing on a y-o-y basis, partly due to a base effect after an unusual growth surge in 2025 that lasted until August last year. In the first eight months of 2025, the short-term indicator, tracking the activity i...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Armenia’s export stress test: shock, adaptation or diversion?

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 18 Sep 2026

I had earlier poked fun at Nikol Pashinyan's statement that "If peppers are spoiling, I'll pay for those peppers. If roses are spoiling, I'll pay for them, too." It represented an emotionally-charged outburst that was tied to the restrictions imposed by Russia on a number of Armenian exports in M...