GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Fiscal consolidation is not advancing toward its targets: through September, public sector borrowing requirements (PSBR) totaled MXN 959 billion (up 3% in real terms), and the primary balance plunged from a MXN 190 billion surplus to just MXN 4 billion. Budgetary revenue fell -2.8% in real annual...

Riding the oil wave

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Nov 2026

The trade surplus should exceed USD 85 billion in 2026 and in 2027, supported by rising exports and imports contained by the slowdown in activity. A significant part of this result comes from oil, favored by higher prices. Regarding remaining exports the effect of US tariffs has been relatively s...

Lula delivered a national address to reaffirm his commitment to fiscal responsibility, he will travel to Turkey today for COP31, and discussions continue on congressional succession

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Nov 2026

President Lula delivered his first nationally televised address since his reelection yesterday (Nov. 8), prioritizing his commitment to the social agenda. He pledged to eliminate taxes on basic food staples and implement fare-free public transportation. He also defended fiscal responsibility and ...

Politics: 2027 gubernatorial elections—a tougher road for Morena than expected

MEXICO · Report · 09 Nov 2026

Next year's elections will determine the type of majority Morena holds in the Chamber of Deputies—absolute or qualified—and also whether the 4T expands or loses territorial control in the governorships and municipal presidencies at stake ahead of the 2030 presidential contest. The outcome also ma...

Police at the Tribunal, a partial truce at the NBP and a warning from S&P, as the MPC turns hawkish

POLAND · In Brief · 09 Nov 2026 · 1 response

Summary CPI inflation fell to 3.5% y-o-y in October, from 4.1% in September, below the 3.7% consensus. The return of the fuel relief cut pump prices by almost 10% in one month, and our estimate of core inflation eased to about 3.0%. The MPC kept the reference rate at 3.75% on November 4, but its ...

Further good news on industry and retail sales in September

HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Nov 2026

Industrial output grew 0.9% mom, 7.8% yoy in September, the latter following +8.6% yoy in August. Thus output growth accelerated to 6.9% yoy in Q3 from 3.6% yoy in Q2, and it reached 4% yoy in January-September. The fixed base chart below (December 2010 = 100) shows a pretty good-looking upswing ...

In dire straits

TURKEY · Report · 08 Nov 2026

The fears of the political analyst regarding sudden early elections, i.e., sometime in 2027, have faded, as Erdogan’s unofficial spokesperson insisted on 16 April 2028, while CHP leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu walked back from his promise of unconditional support for any date. Yet, we are still follo...

GULF WEEKLY: Midterms reshape the war outlook, Saudi deficit expands, ADNOC signs LNG deals

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 Nov 2026 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The stronger-than-expected Democratic midterm victory raised pressure on Trump to end the Iran war. * The sharp fall in oil to $94 on Wed suggested the market was hopeful, but it has partly rebounded. * Escalation concern...

Property hasn't reached a bottom — timber and China's economy

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 06 Nov 2026

A spike in demand for timber imports in August raised questions among some funds that China’s property market had reached a bottom. After months of steady YoY declines, August log and sawnwood imports rose 9 percent. However, fundamental property and import data suggests the import increases were...

Political update – November 6, 2026: New paths open for Eisenkot, but forming a government remains a long way off

ISRAEL · Report · 06 Nov 2026

Following the October 27 elections, Eisenkot is expected to receive the mandate to form a government, backed by recommendations from 67 Knesset members but without a clear coalition majority. Lieberman’s willingness to negotiate with ultra-Orthodox parties has opened a new avenue, although he is ...

Justice Dino scheduled a conciliation hearing on the 6x1 work schedule, Lula will deliver a national address to reaffirm his commitment to fiscal responsibility, and the CAE will discuss the CBS rate set by the TCU

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Nov 2026

Supreme Federal Court (STF) Justice Flávio Dino scheduled a conciliation hearing for next Tuesday (Nov. 10) to discuss the implementation of the new workweek following the end of the 6x1 schedule. Dino is the reporting justice in the cases filed this week by the national commerce and industry con...

Chile’s generational funds reform - Slide presentation and webinar replay

CHILE · Presentation · 06 Nov 2026

What is changing in Chile’s pension fund system and how will it impact market dynamics? How will the transition to generational funds reshape institutional demand for fixed income and currency hedging over time? What are the implications for the depth and liquidity of Chile’s domestic capital mar...

Czechia: the hike lands, December does not

CZECHIA · In Brief · 06 Nov 2026

By Artur Radziwill and Jan Hagemejer The Bank Board raised the two-week repo rate by 25 basis points to 4.00 percent on 5 November, the call we set out at our webinar on 30 October. We expect 4.00 percent to hold on 17 December. The margin is the news The vote was four to three. We had expected t...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Hawk talk, no walk?

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 06 Nov 2026

I employ a LLM to look at and analyze 167 rates decisions in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan since Jan 2023. I first score each policy statement on three parameters, including inflation assessment, inflation risks and policy guidance, and then combine all state...

You talk the talk; do you walk the walk?

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Nov 2026

As expected, Copom unanimously decided to keep the target for the Selic rate at 13.75% per year. Consistent with the decision, there are several elements with a clearly more hawkish tone regarding the assessment of the situation. At the same time, however, these elements are softened by the re...