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GULF WEEKLY: MBS’s art of the deal in DC, UAE airlines order 322 planes, Oman’s deficit narrows, UN authorizes Gaza plan
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 21 Nov 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude dropped to $62, its lowest in a month, amid a renewed US effort for a Ukraine deal. * Stellantis is considering car manufacturing in KSA. FDI licenses increased by 84% y/y in Q3. * MBS’s visit to the US was se...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Local ballot, national message—what Vagharshapat says about Armenia's 2026 Parliamentary Elections
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 21 Nov 2025

This week I complete my trilogy on the political and geopolitical backdrop in the South Caucasus by looking at the results from the important local elections in Armenia's Vagharshapat (the 5th largest city in the country). I use the results to test my early-month theory (and projection) about how...

Changing positions in the MNB and the Monetary Council should not have any impact on monetary policy
HUNGARY · In Brief · 21 Nov 2025

Today's news is the sudden resignation of Barnabás Virág, vice governor of the MNB, who is to be replaced by Péter Benő Banai, currently senior advisor to Governor Varga, and formerly the secretary of state responsible for the government budget in Mr. Varga's Finance Ministry, and for a limited p...

The South African Reserve Bank ends the year with a 25 bps interest rate cut
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 20 Nov 2025

The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) opted to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points from 7% to 6.75% during its final meeting of the year. This follows a pause in policy normalization during the MPC’s meeting in September. As a result, the prime l...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 20 Nov 2025

Despite a new package of sanctions, which included restrictions on operations with the two oil majors, the impact of the FX market is limited, and in the past two weeks the ruble remained stable. Some changes are likely starting from 2026, when the CBR plans to decrease its regular daily FX sales...

Inflation expectations remain anchored at the 2% range; activity softens ahead of MPC decision
ISRAEL · In Brief · 20 Nov 2025

The Bank of Israel published its latest update on inflation expectations yesterday, showing that short-term expectations remain low, around the 2% range, close to the midpoint of the Bank’s target. One-year expectations from the capital market averaged 1.9%, while the average 12-month projection ...

November 2025 Peru slide deck: Economic and political situation
PERU · Presentation · 19 Nov 2025

Read Alfredo Thorne's slide presentation on key topics affecting Peru including: - The political scenario under Boluarte’s impeachment and the presidential elections. - Growth outlook: continues to improve. - Road to a failed state—Dina’s legacy? - What is needed to achieve the Modern State...

The Federal Police operation involving Banco Master is reverberating across Brasília, the Lower House approved the Anti-Gang Bill, and the Senate approved the bill limiting tax offsets
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Nov 2025

The Federal Police operation involving Banco Master reverberated across Brasília. Political connections of the bank’s controllers are being scrutinized, especially by government allies. Opposition governors Ibaneis Rocha (MDB–DF) and Cláudio Castro (Rio de Janeiro) faced pressure over operations ...

Webinar replay - China's five-year plan and its shifting economic landscape
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 19 Nov 2025

What challenges will China face in the execution of its five-year plan? Can China maintain its position in the global trade conflict? As Beijing clamps down on the manufacturing industry, what support will the government provide to different sectors? Visit our calendar page to watch the rep...

What does GDP growth (and investment growth) mean in China?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 19 Nov 2025

Special points to highlight in this report: - Little good news came out of October’s data release. Growth in value-added industrial production was down. Retail sales growth was also down, and remained lower than growth in industrial production for both October and 2025 year to date. - Wha...

Unprecedented corruption scandal opens the gate for major reshuffle of top echelons
UKRAINE · In Brief · 19 Nov 2025

The huge corruption scandal within the narrow circle of President Volodymyr Zelenskiy (referred to as Mindichgate after Timur Mindich, the central figure of the scandal and Zelenskiy’s business partner) is a major upheaval for both Ukraine’s domestic politics and its international standing amid t...

Chile's Economists: a first tentative dance
CHILE · In Brief · 18 Nov 2025

Some media outlets have reported that a group of economists who had supported Evelyn Matthei’s presidential campaign have already signed on to the Kast bandwagon. The reality is somewhat more tentative. However, talks are underway. A meeting was held on Tuesday morning between Kast’s economic adv...

Economic slowdown and tax tensions frame the 2026 budget debate
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 18 Nov 2025

Economic conditions in the Dominican Republic softened further in September, with growth slowing across nearly all major sectors. The adverse effects of Hurricane Melissa, including disruptions to agricultural production and temporary business closures, helped drive food prices higher. Headline i...

The STF published the decision that denied Bolsonaro’s appeals, the House may vote on the Anti-Gang Bill, and the rapporteur of the Sentencing Bill is finalizing his report so that it can be discussed in the leaders' meeting
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Nov 2025

The Supreme Federal Court (STF) published on Monday night, November 17, the decision that denied the appeals of former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) and six other convicts from the crucial core of the coup plot. With the publication of the judgment, the deadline opens for the defenses to file new...

Webinar replay - Chile election briefing: After the general elections
CHILE · Report · 18 Nov 2025

Were there any surprises in the results of Chile's congressional and presidential elections? Have Chilean voters become polarized? What challenges and opportunities do the presidential candidates face to consolidate support and appeal to voters? Will their strategies shift to the center? What are...

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