GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Guatemala’s economy remained resilient in H1 2026, despite weaker global growth, geopolitical tensions and tight financial conditions. Economic activity expanded by 4.4%, supported by private consumption, remittances, financial-sector stability and stronger public investment. Remittance inflows r...

Kazakhstan macro: The tenge remains strong as the current account turns positive and capital flows in

KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 25 Aug 2026

S&P Global Ratings recently upgraded Kazakhstan’s sovereign credit ratings to BBB from BBB- (long-term) and A-2 from A-3 (short-term), recognizing the government’s fiscal reforms and greater resilience to external shocks. The agency noted GDP growth could reach about 5.1% this year — well above i...

Washington decides the course, Caracas negotiates the pace

VENEZUELA · Report · 25 Aug 2026

After the earthquakes, the country returns to a "new normal" under more pressure to accelerate change — though the relevant actors understand "change" quite differently. The negotiating table between the 2015 National Assembly delegation and the Rodríguez government, represented by the 2025 Na...

MNB base rate down by another 25bps today, future path remains uncertain

HUNGARY · In Brief · 25 Aug 2026 · 1 response

Today's 25bps reduction of the MNB base rate, to 5.5%, was exactly as expected, given the MNB's own forecast of late June, and the latest excellent CPI-inflation reading for July. However, the rate reduction 'mini-cycle', as Governor Varga called it two months ago, is now over, and Mr. Varga hims...

The latest poll shows Lula would tie with Flávio Bolsonaro and Caiado in a runoff, Flávio’s campaign filed a complaint with the TSE against Lula, and Justice Dino authorized further investigations into the film “Dark Horse”

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Aug 2026

Yesterday’s release of a Nexus BTG Pactual poll on the presidential election showed President Lula in a statistical tie with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) and former Goiás Governor Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) in potential runoff scenarios. In a hypothetical runoff race against Flávio, Lula has 46%, whil...

In a bit of a hurry

TURKEY · Report · 25 Aug 2026

The CBRT lowered the money market rates (TLREF) to around 37% from around 40%-- more abruptly than we thought. After the dovish signals sent by Governor Fatih Karahan at the recent Inflation Report meeting, this was almost certain to happen, but we thought a more gradual move --to test market sen...

Economics: Macroeconomic scenarios 2026-2030 and their political determinants

MEXICO · Report · 24 Aug 2026

We frame Mexico's macroeconomic outlook for 2026-2030 around four scenarios, the probabilities of which point to a predominantly adverse picture. The most likely scenario (50%) is the inertial one, in which government policy remains largely unchanged: the erosion of the rule of law — reflecte...

Weekly report, August 24, 2026: Nvidia boosts Israel’s GDP growth, rate cut remains a close call, Netanyahu strengthens his grip on Likud

ISRAEL · Report · 24 Aug 2026

New CBS data show a widening gap between Israel’s headline GDP and domestic growth, largely reflecting Nvidia-related production abroad. We have revised our 2026 forecast, with GDP growth at 4.2% and exports rising 10.2%. The weaker domestic picture strengthens the case for monetary easing, but f...

The economy and corruption threaten Lula's lead and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Aug 2026

The government may submit the proposed 2027 federal budget and a provisional measure on the Selective Tax to Congress. On Friday (Aug. 28), free electoral advertising on radio and television begins. Four presidential polls are expected (Nexus, Gerp, Indexa, and PoderData), along with a series of ...

The Half Empty Glass

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Aug 2026

Gross public debt is expected to reach 83% of GDP by year-end, largely due to interest expenses. The real interest rate, however, is also a result of fiscal policy, which has affected the cost of debt at both short and long maturities. The recent increase in long-term international interest rates...

The first presidential debate was held yesterday, free campaign time on TV and radio will begin on Friday, and several new polls will be released throughout the week

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Aug 2026

Yesterday, Band hosted the first debate among the candidates for president of Brazil. Only three candidates participated: Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), Renan Santos (Missão), and Augusto Cury (Avante). Lula is expected to avoid debates during the first round. Free electoral advertising on radio and telev...

In an end to an era, Jamaica changes its Central Bank Governor the week before Jackson Hole in Wyoming

JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 24 Aug 2026

Last week, Dr Brian Langrin succeeded Richard Byles as governor of the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ). Byles’ seven-year term, which began August 19, 2019, concluded on August 18, 2026. If one includes his time as co-chair of the Economic Programme Oversight Committee (EPOC), this marks the end of an era....

Politics: Implications of the U.S. visa revocation for AMLO's son

MEXICO · Report · 24 Aug 2026

The revocation of the U.S. visa of AMLO´s eldest son, known as “Andy”, was a low-cost, secretive, and unexplained administrative measure targeting a man with no formal government role that triggered a political crisis wildly disproportionate to the act itself, exposing deep fractures within Mexic...

Electricity production at Paks nuclear power plant to be restored to full capacity this week

HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Aug 2026

Currently, Paks is producing at nearly three-fourth of its full capacity (see the Chart below). Within the next two days, output is going to be restored to full capacity, according to current plans. Output at the Paks nuclear power plant at 11:53 CEST on August 24, 2026 Source: Portfolio.hu Previ...

GULF WEEKLY: UAE bans trade with Iran, PIF’s profits double, Bahrain’s FX reserves recover

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 21 Aug 2026

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * As the MoU deadline expired, Trump threatened secondary sanctions on countries trading with Iran. * Trump also threatened to bomb Oman in an interview, without details. * Two bulk carriers were hit, and the UAE cut trade ...