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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Surprisingly robust, as remittances lead the way
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 19 Dec 2025

With Costa Rica less than two months away from the February 1 presidential and congressional elections, government candidate Laura Fernández continues to lead in the polls. But given the high proportion of undecided voters, it is still unclear whether the election will be decided in the first rou...

GULF WEEKLY: UAE non-oil growth soars, MGX buys into TikTok, IMF visits Kuwait, Oman-India CEPA signed
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 19 Dec 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude fell below $60 for the first time in nearly five years, despite the US blockade of Venezuela. * China’s foreign minister, visiting Saudi Arabia and the UAE, called for progress on an FTA with the GCC. * Saudi ...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: The Carnegie Paradox; After the surge, CCA currencies move from boom to balance
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 19 Dec 2025

It may only be natural to have my last TOPIC OF THE WEEK for the year attempt a kind of philosophical diversion into, and analysis of, a recent Carnegie Endowment post titled "Passions over Ararat. Why is Pashinyan trying to change the Armenian national identity?" I zoomed in on this piece for a ...

The Joint Budget Committee should vote on the 2026 Budget, Congress should recess today and return on February 2, and the Mercosur-EU agreement may be signed next year
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Dec 2025

Today, the Joint Budget Committee is expected to vote on the 2026 Budget Bill (PLOA 2026). The meeting was originally scheduled for yesterday, but the budget rapporteur, Representative Isnaldo Bulhões (MDB-AL), requested additional time to adjust the budget text. After approval by the committee, ...

Don’t be fooled
COLOMBIA · Report · 19 Dec 2025

The Petro administration will surely trumpet new CARF announcements outlining better-than-expected 2025 fiscal results. The 2025 national central government deficit will be below the 7.6% we and a substantial group of analysts and investors were expecting, and closer to 6.2%. Net NCG debt also im...

Good news on growth and prices, while the ACP increases transfers to the Treasury
PANAMA · Report · 19 Dec 2025 · 1 response

The third-quarter GDP figure published this wekk (3.9%) exceeded our expectations and raises the possibility of full-year growth close to 4.0%, above our 3.6% estimate. Over the first three quarters, cumulative GDP growth reached 4.2%, driven by the same sectors that led the third quarter: transp...

Revenue flow remains uneven across different levels of the consolidated budget
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 19 Dec 2025

The Ministry of Finance released 11M25 budget execution data for various levels of the consolidated budget, including extra-budgetary funds. The consolidated budget showed a surplus of KZT2.5 trillion, compared to the government’s full-year 2025 deficit target of over KZT4.8 trln. Local budgets c...

No news is not always good news
ECUADOR · Report · 18 Dec 2025

Over a month has passed since the political defeat of President Daniel Noboa in the referendum, and there is a sense of a leadership void. This political setback was followed by a series of changes in the president’s cabinet and a 30-day trip that took him to the United States, the Arab Emirates,...

In the final stretch
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Dec 2025

The tone of the Copom Minutes, released yesterday, was somewhat more upbeat in its assessment of the prospective inflation scenario than that conveyed in the Statement following the meeting, but, even so, without elements that would allow us to affirm, as we had come to believe, that the beginnin...

Is 390 the current officially preferred EURHUF rate?
HUNGARY · In Brief · 18 Dec 2025

You know, it is a pretty common disease among analysts to see reason even where there is none. So, maybe we have just fallen prey to this pandemic this time. However, there may be still a story, a sort of conscious calculation to manage the EURHUF exchange rate, behind what we have seen most late...

The Senate approved the Sentencing Bill, Congress should vote on the Federal Budget on Friday, and the Minister of Tourism stepped down from his position
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Dec 2025

The Senate floor approved yesterday the Sentencing Bill (PL 2,162/23), which reduces the sentences of those convicted for the January 8, 2023 attacks. The bill now moves to presidential consideration. Congress will hold a joint session on Friday morning, December 19, to vote on the 2026 Annual B...

Implications of the oil logistics paralysis
VENEZUELA · Report · 18 Dec 2025

Loading and unloading operations have continued after the seizure of the Skipper and Trump's announcement of a blockade on sanctioned vessels. Available information is disperse and diverse. It includes ships that chose to return without reaching Venezuela, others that began unloading diluents...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 18 Dec 2025

The Russian FX market has seen moderate volatility over the past two weeks. The CBR’s decision to lift limits on outgoing hard currency transfers by individuals from Russia and “friendly” countries has had little effect on the exchange rate. Still, easing capital controls could help the ruble wea...

Labor market remains tight despite post-war normalization
ISRAEL · In Brief · 17 Dec 2025

Labor market remains tight despite post-war normalization Labor-market indicators continue to point to a tight labor market that may sustain wage pressures and slow the pace of interest-rate cuts, even after the ceasefire. Two new releases this week suggest that labor demand remains strong, while...

The election race has become tighter
HUNGARY · Report · 17 Dec 2025

Tisza’s lead in the opinion polls has narrowed somewhat over the past month. This was not so much because Tisza might have lost momentum in its campaign, as it has just completed a successful primary vote to select MP candidates and is moving forward towards releasing a policy program by January....

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