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Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 26 Feb 2026

Feb 13 World Bank: The Bank is ready to provide financing up to $1bln per year for projects in Kazakhstan in 2026-2031. National railways: IPO of Kazakhstan Railways may take place in May. KMG: The company increased oil and gas condensate production by 10% in 2025. US Embassy: The US is working w...

More than meets the eye
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Feb 2026

Although the presumed increase in productivity associated with the application of AI is often quoted as reason for a more aggressive stance regarding the definition of US interest rates, there are forces operating in the opposite direction. In particular, as shown both theoretically and empirical...

Budget 2026: from fiscal strain to stabilization and consolidation through growth rather than taxation
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 26 Feb 2026

Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana tabled Budget 2026 in an environment marked by cautious macroeconomic stabilization, ongoing fiscal consolidation, and a more complex political landscape under the Government of National Unity (GNU). Whereas Budget 2025 was shaped by political disagreement and th...

A recent poll reinforced the polarization between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, the administration is now focusing on approving the 6x1 PEC, and the Senate approved new guidelines for the petrochemicals sector
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Feb 2026

An Atlas poll released yesterday, February 25, showed the consolidation of a polarized scenario between President Lula (PT) and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) in the presidential race. In first-round simulations, Lula appears, depending on the scenario, with between 43% and 47% of intended votes....

The Central Bank keeps the monetary policy rate unchanged in March 2026
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 25 Feb 2026

The monetary policy rate will remain at 5.25% per year, according to the Central Bank's decision adopted today. The rate on the permanent liquidity expansion facility (1-day repos) remains at 5.75% per year, while the rate on remunerated deposits (overnight) continues at 4.50% per year. The Centr...

Panama, the U.S., and China: ports as a geopolitical linchpin
PANAMA · Report · 25 Feb 2026

Panama’s takeover of the Balboa and Cristóbal seaports operations marks a geopolitical inflection point in which the ports—more than the Canal itself—have become a strategic lever in U.S.-China competition. Following last week’s Supreme Court ruling that declared unconstitutional the legal framew...

Will Chancellor Merz’s visit change EU policies towards China?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 25 Feb 2026

Special points to highlight in this report: - Economic data releases in China early in the year are usually not comparable because the very important Spring Festival comes at different times in January and February every year. In addition, in a bid to boost consumption, Beijing decreed that t...

The House approved the Redata Bill and the Anti-Gang Bill, the STF will review the injunction issued by Justice Dino on public-sector salaries, and government leaders met yesterday to discuss the salary “perks” issue
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Feb 2026

The Lower House approved yesterday, February 24, the Redata bill (PL 278/26), which establishes a Special Tax Regime for Data Center Services. The measure reduces the tax burden on the deployment and modernization chain of data processing centers in the country. The House also approved the Anti-G...

Upcoming Webinar - Kazakhstan: Navigating oil and FX volatility
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 25 Feb 2026

Date: 26 Feb 2026 Time: 10:00 AM Eastern Time How will tax reform impact Kazakhstan's economy and budget? What trends in currencies are impacting the tenge amid an evolving global landscape? Will the Central Bank's monetary policy be effective at controlling interest rates? What's ahead for t...

The kindness of strangers
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 25 Feb 2026

The Brazilian real continued its appreciation at the beginning of the year, strengthening 5.6% through the first half of February. The dollar fell below BRL 5.20/USD, reaching its lowest level since mid-2024. We believe, however, that this appreciation of the real is not grounded in an improvemen...

Results of the military operation to arrest Nemesio Oseguera, "El Mencho," Leader of the CJNG
MEXICO · In Brief · 24 Feb 2026

Initial notes on its implications On Sunday, February 22, Mexican armed forces carried out an operation to apprehend Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, alias “El Mencho,” the leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG)—Mexico’s most powerful and far-reaching criminal organization, heavily engaged...

The MNB base rate has been cut by 25 bps to 6.25% today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Feb 2026

For the first time since September 2024, the MNB base rate was reduced by 25 bps at today's monthly rate-setting meeting. The interest rate corridor around the base rate was kept at +/-1%-point. The decision corresponded to broad expectation, as regards analyst views and market pricing. There app...

Kazakhstan macro: Tax reform—January budget execution statistics signal caution
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 24 Feb 2026 · 1 response

The January budget execution statistics published last week sent mixed signals, suggesting that the outcome of tax reforms orchestrated by the Kazakh government remains muted. This doesn’t mean that the reform will be unsuccessful, but it could fall short of expectations. The key element of the t...

The Chile-US Cable Spat
CHILE · In Brief · 24 Feb 2026

Chile-US relations were struck a firm blow last week when the United States revoked the visas of Chilean Transport and Telecommunications Minister Juan Carlos Muñoz and two other officials, accusing them of actions that could “compromise critical telecommunications infrastructure” and undermine r...

The Anti-Gang Bill should be put to a vote, the president of the CCJC should announce the rapporteur of the 6x1 PEC, and the two leading presidential candidates are facing headwinds
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Feb 2026

The Anti-Gang Bill, which establishes the Legal Framework for Combating Organized Crime, is currently blocking the House agenda and could be voted on this Tuesday. If approved, it will be sent to President Lula for sanction. The president of the Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJC), Congress...

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