Country Insights

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Important snippets on today's national holiday
HUNGARY - Note 23 Oct 2017
Today is a national holiday in Hungary, the anniversary of the 1956 revolution and uprising against the Soviet rule. Markets are closed, but life goes on, as usual. Some recent and upcoming events may be important for investors, so let us look at them just brief...

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Political and Economic Update
TURKEY - Weekly Trends 22 Oct 2017
Sundays have become synonymous with the word “crisis” in Turkey. We start with unconfirmedand not too credible news of the U.S. State Department getting ready to levy fines on some Turkish banks for violating Iranian sanctions, which might disturb markets on Mon...

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Trying to Please Both God and The Devil
ECUADOR - Quarterly Outlook 20 Oct 2017
President Lenín Moreno’s position on the razor's edge is evidenced by his contradictory and mild decision making on important political and economic issues. The new economic program launched recently by Ministry of Finance Carlos de la Torre is no exception. ...

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J&F’s future is in jeopardy
BRAZIL POLITICS - Market Brief 20 Oct 2017
A serious threat looms over the future of JBS, the largest meat producer in the world and a company controlled by the J&F group. The rescission of the plea bargain deal secured by Joesley Batista, a partner in the company, and Ricardo Saud, a high-ranking execut...

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Is the monetary bet going sour?
ARGENTINA - Monthly Report 20 Oct 2017
Much of market’s attention will be focused on this Sunday’s midterm elections and the likely political implications of the reshuffling in Congress, in particular, the new political balance ahead of the 2018 budget approval or the announced labor and tax reform. ...

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Chavismo’s electoral machinery in action
VENEZUELA - Market Brief 20 Oct 2017
The unexpected outcome of the 15 October elections shows that Maduro’s government worked hard to raise chavismo’s political-electoral machinery to a new level and managed to have its base turn out almost entirely (30 percent of the voters) while at the same time...

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Political protests: authorities play for time
UKRAINE - Note 20 Oct 2017
My personal opinion – healthcare reform was a sacrifice to prevent revision of political rules of the game. When reformers had been celebrating approval of healthcare legislation, the authorities tried to derail process of implementing political demands. Firstly...

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Healthcare reform approved
UKRAINE - Note 20 Oct 2017
Yesterday, on October 19 parliament finally approved long-awaited healthcare reform. Frankly, I was skeptical about chances of this badly needed measure but probably protests on the streets sped up the process. Virtually, the reform has been curtailed for some c...

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ABS and Deleveraging in China
CHINA ADVISORY - Special Report 19 Oct 2017
• Explosion in ABS. By the end of September, there were 1,129 ABS securities with an outstanding balance of Rmb1.5trn. Encouraged by government policies, we estimate ABS will grow by double digits through 2020. • Fiscal “Band-aid.” The central government has re...

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Fidesz' Main Opposition Is Non-Inflationary Growth
HUNGARY - Quarterly Outlook 18 Oct 2017
Six months ahead of the next regular parliamentary election, the governing Fidesz-KDNP alliance remains on course towards an easy victory, with better-than-equal chances for a constitutional majority in the National Assembly. Amidst conditions of rapid wage and ...

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Comments on Xi Jinping’s Speech at the Party Congress
CHINA FINANCIAL - Market Brief 18 Oct 2017 1 response
​For all the ink that will be spilled on it I think there was nothing in today’s speech by Xi Jinping that is likely to cause anyone to change his mind about China's economic prospects, nor was there ever likely to be. This was meant to be a political speech and...

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President Zuma and His 12th Nuclear Cabinet Reshuffle
SOUTH AFRICA - Note 18 Oct 2017
Yesterday, in a fairly uncermonious manner, and uncharacteristically during day time, President Zuma introduced his 12th Cabinet reshuffle in 8 years. Mostly, he re-arranged his ministers' portfolios, even some who were appointed a mere 6 months back were moved ...

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Political Protests: Interim Results
UKRAINE - Note 18 Oct 2017
Political protests on October 17 have impressed the authorities. The downtown of the city was flooded with police and military. And it looks like police exceeded the number of protesters. The very action was predominantly peaceful except for few minor clashes. R...

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Kirkuk reverts to Baghdad, Kurds in disarray
TURKEY - Note 16 Oct 2017
The disputed Iraqi city of Kirkuk rapidly fell to Iraqi Army, as Kurdish peshmerga forces withdrew after putting up symbolic resistance. It appears that divisions between deceased national hero Mr. Talabani’s Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) tacitly cooperatin...

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Big Political Action might Reveal Authorities’ Intentions
UKRAINE - Note 16 Oct 2017
Tomorrow, on October 17 there will be a big political action (demonstration) in support of reforms. At least it was advertised as a big one. In fact it will be a critical day for those who still are struggling for changes at the country. Reformation zeal has fad...