Country Insights

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Pent-up demand impacts inflation, while rental prices moderate
ISRAEL - In Brief 18 Apr 2021
Highlights of the weekly macro review: Inflation in March surprises slightly on the upside The CPI in March reached 0.6% m/m and 0.2% y/y. We (and the market) had expected 0.5% m/m. Pent-up demand was felt on domestic vacation prices (9.7% m/m) and cultural events and parties (3.7%). This was off...

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It was sort of a dull week, for a change
TURKEY - Report 18 Apr 2021
Domestic politics are utterly boring for investors and multinational businesses, and suicidally depressive for those who make a living covering them. The never-changing fact of life is the steady decline in poll ratings of AKP+MHP, attended by ever-less effective attempts to spin the agenda to im...

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A second wave of Covid-19 in India
INDIA - In Brief 18 Apr 2021
Through 2020, sero-prevalence data was showing a large-scale spread of the disease within India. Alongside this, a large surge of Covid-19 related death was not visible. The analysis of excess deaths data showed that the fingerprints of Covid-19 in death -- male, elderly, co-morbidities, urban --...

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Czechs kick out 18 Russian diplomats
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 18 Apr 2021
On April 17 Prague declared the Russian diplomats PNG on the basis that they were committin espionage. It is suspeted that they caused an explosion in 2014 at an ammunition warehouse. 2 people were killed in the blast.The government acknowledged the move would seriously hamper relations with Russ...

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Economic recovery underway, amid higher inflation
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - Forecast 16 Apr 2021
For the first time since the start of the pandemic, the Dominican Republic in February showed positive y/y growth, of 1.1%, which offset the -1.8% contraction seen in January. Accumulated growth in January-February 2021, compared to the same period in 2020, was -0.3%. The expansion, mainly in con...

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​GULF WEEKLY: Aramco sells pipelines, US-UAE arms deal approved, Kuwaiti former PM detained
GULF COUNTRIES - Report 16 Apr 2021
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The IMF sees the fiscal breakevens improving relative to 2019 in all bar Kuwait and Bahrain. * It forecasts a surprisingly wide range of oil and non-oil recoveries across the region. * Israeli sabotage overshadowed US-Ira...

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The STF confirmed Minister Fachin's decision and annulled the convictions against former President Lula
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 16 Apr 2021
The Supreme Federal Court (STF) confirmed Minister Edson Fachin’s decision and annulled the convictions against former President Lula, maintaining his eligibility. Lula should remain eligible unless he is convicted in another case before the deadline for the election’s candidate registration on A...

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Weak retail sales & construction data in February
HUNGARY - In Brief 16 Apr 2021
Retail sales fell by a rather weak 5.2% yoy in February, following -2% yoy in the previous month. To a great extent, this was a lockdown / 3rd wave impact, i.e. greatly Covid-related. Even though the government tightened Covid restrictions only from March 8, the 3rd wave of the epidemic was steep...

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Impact assessment of US sanctions on Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 16 Apr 2021
On April 15 the US announced a new raft of sanctions. Biden also suggested meeting Putin in person. Moscow is spinning the suggestion as a win for them. The US said sanctions were due to malevolent cyberactivity, corruption, the poisoning of Navalny with a chemical weapon and the broader attack o...

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Poland declares 3 Russian diplomats PNG and UK summons ambassador
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 16 Apr 2021
On April 15 the Poles expelled Russian diplomats on the basis that they have committed hostile acts against Poland. Warsaw also declared its solidarity with the USA.In the United Kingdom the Russian Ambassador was summoned to be dressed down over alleged malign activity.

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Russia claims much more of the Arctic
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 16 Apr 2021
On March 31 Russia put a claim to the UN that more areas of the continental shelf belong to Russia. This includes the Gakkel Ridge, the Lomonosov Ridge and the Canadian Basin. Russia's claims now encroach on areas long claimed by Canada and Denmark.The US estimates that 13% of the world's undisco...

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Russian economy: More sanctions, more resilience
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - Report 15 Apr 2021
It appears almost certain that, after the US administration sanctioned the OFZ market, more sanctions will be imposed later this year, and in the years to come, as both sides, i. e., the West and Russia, will be keen to continue playing the same game for years, and even longer. Therefore, mountin...

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Azerbaijan seeks to use wind power
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 15 Apr 2021
On April 14 Baku signed a MOU with the International Finance Corporation. The IFC will help to fund offshore wind farms in Azerbaijan. The World Bank is also involved.It is estimated that Azerbaijan has a maximum potential of 157 GW for fixed bottom wind capture and 122 GW for floating wind capture.

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​Industrial production to grow fast this year
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 15 Apr 2021
Rosstat reported that even though the mining segment remained under pressure due to the OPEC+ deal and in 1Q21 contracted by 7.3% y-o-y, in March contraction was not so deep as the extraction of gas, coal, and metal ores were up y-o-y. Starting from May, y-o-y growth in the mining segment will tu...

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Prime rate goes up to 7.5%, the NBU signals preference to keep this level till 2022
UKRAINE - In Brief 15 Apr 2021
As expected, the NBU Board increased the prime rate by 1.0 ppt up to 7.5% amid a substantial inflation speed up to 8.5% y/y in March. The NBU revised its inflation forecast up to 8% for 2021 from 7%, estimated previously. Also the Bank worsened GDP forecast down to +3.8% from +4.2%, estimated pre...