GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

At the end of September, the government released an updated medium-term macroeconomic outlook along with the draft 2027–2029 budget, submitting the necessary documents to the Duma for hearings. Few amendments are expected, and the documents will likely be approved, with only possible minor adjust...

Economics: September indicators—a fragile recovery and narrowing monetary and fiscal room

MEXICO · Report · 05 Oct 2026

September's indicators point to an economy recovering unevenly and exposed on several fronts. Private consumption remain soft, with consumer confidence stuck near historic lows and private investment held back by uncertainty around USMCA and the constitutional reforms recently approved in Mexico....

A break of sorts in a long journey

TURKEY · Report · 05 Oct 2026

CPI inflation was a lower-than-expected 1.8% m/m in September (compared with median expectation of some 2.2%), with annual CPI inflation declining to 29.7% from 31.5% in August, falling below the 30% mark for the first time since December 2021. The surprise seems driven by a sharper than expected...

Upcoming webinar - Brazil elections: Outlook for the runoff

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Oct 2026

Date: 6 Oct 2026 Time: 10:00 AM EDT What does the path to the presidency look like for Brazil's presidential candidates? Which way is the country leaning? Join us for our live Zoom webinar featuring GlobalSource Partners' Brazil Politics Analyst Lucas de Aragao discussing the results of th...

MPC preview: a hold this week, and a November call that fuel relief has made harder

POLAND · In Brief · 05 Oct 2026

The Monetary Policy Council (MPC) decides on Wednesday, October 7, and Governor Glapiński speaks on Thursday at 15:00. We expect the reference rate to stay at 3.75%, where it has been since March. The interesting decision is November, when the Council receives the new NBP projection, and five dev...

Pax Silica: Opportunity, but not a blank check

PHILIPPINES · Report · 05 Oct 2026

Pax Silica presents the Philippines with a significant opportunity to participate more deeply in the emerging global technology and supply-chain architecture, but it should not be approached as a blank check. Legitimate concerns over geopolitical alignment, resource demands, environmental and com...

Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and President Lula head to a runoff on October 25, campaigning begins on Friday and runs through October 23, and five presidential polls are expected to be released this week

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Oct 2026

Senator Flávio Bolsonaro finished ahead of President Lula in the first round of the presidential election. Flávio received 47.03% of the valid votes, compared with 45.16% for President Lula, a difference of just 1.85 percentage points. Campaigning for the runoff begins on Friday (Oct. 9) and will...

Fast politics, slow economy

TURKEY · Report · 04 Oct 2026

President Erdogan belatedly grasped that the fund scandal could cost him a large amount of votes, and decided to bite the bullet and compensate all victims to the tune of TL1 million, max. In the end, all holders of funds with the suspect assets managers will be compensated at the principal value...

Retail margin caps may be lifted quite soon

HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Oct 2026 · 1 response

Two days ago, PM Magyar visited the economically less prosperous north-eastern region of Hungary, on the occasion that the newly established National Asset Recovery and Protection Agency (NVVH) previously took into custody a former economy minister of the Fidesz government in the 2010s, not long ...

GULF WEEKLY: Hormuz transits and East-West flows pick up, Saudi pre-budget statement, Qatar’s GDP contracts by -15%

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 02 Oct 2026

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Ongoing Qatari mediation produced a new proposal but has not yet bridged the US-Iran differences. * Trump has ordered a third aircraft carrier to the region, adding to fears of a post-election escalation. * Oil and LNG Ho...

Globo canceled last night’s presidential debate, TSE Justice Estela Aranha barred the network from showing an empty podium for President Lula, and there was negative backlash surrounding the court decisions

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Oct 2026

After two court decisions interfered with Globo’s presidential debate, combined with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro’s (PL) decision to withdraw from the event, Globo canceled what was expected to be the decisive debate of the election campaign. Superior Electoral Court (TSE) Justice Estela Aranha barre...

Slide presentation - Colombia: Off to a rough start

COLOMBIA · Report · 02 Oct 2026

What are the fiscal challenges facing newly-elected President Abelardo de la Espriella? What are the expectations for Colombia's growth and how will they affect the fiscal situation? What might be the possible impact of a strong El Niño and how could this influence rates? What are the prospects f...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Gold-rich, shock-proof? Testing external buffers across the Caucasus and Central Asia

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 02 Oct 2026

CCA countries have been breaking records in accumulating FX reserves. While Uzbekistan has mostly been on the radar screen given its very large stock of reserves, the rest of the countries have also been setting new highs in building up FX buffers, albeit for different reasons, ranging from remit...

Essential CIS Politics: September 16 - October 1, 2026

CIS POLITICS · Report · 01 Oct 2026

Key topics: -Ukraine retakes Lyman after months of attacks and blunts the northern threat to Slavyansk, while Russia tightens the ring around Dobropole, nibbles at the Kharkov and Sumy pockets, encircles Terovatoe, and opens a winter campaign against power plants, heating systems and the lines...

Economic statistics appeared unimpressive in August

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 01 Oct 2026

Recent monthly economic data from Rosstat suggests that the nation’s growth model, driven by steadily increasing government spending to meet specific needs, is nearing a tipping point that may require changes. The short-term indicator of economic activity - covering industry, agriculture, constru...