GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Copom rightly expresses discomfort with the rise in long-term inflation expectations in response to the oil shock, whose effects should dissipate before affecting inflation at more distant horizons. We argue in this report that this pattern results from the Central Bank’s stance since 2021, marke...

Kazakhstan macro: Economic growth moderates in the aftermath of last year’s overheating

KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 14 May 2026

Recent economic statistics show that Kazakhstan’s economy resumed growing after the sharp drop in January caused by the oil export disruption due to the damage at the CPC sea oil terminal. However, January’s shock will still have some impact on overall growth in 2026, which will be slower than la...

Topic of the week: May 2026 CCA Slide deck - fresh views reflecting Iran developments

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 14 May 2026

This is a mid-quarter edition of the quarterly slide deck for the Caucasus and Central Asia, comprising a 209-slide detailed description of the economic status quo in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. It covers various topics, including growth, economic structur...

Flávio sought financial support from Vorcaro to make a film about his father, Viana filed a request to create a CPMI into Banco Master, and government allies intend to file a complaint against Flávio in the Senate Ethics Council

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 May 2026

The news that Flavio Bolsonaro sought financial support from former banker Daniel Vorcaro to make a film about former President Jair Bolsonaro caught the political world by surprise and represents a major setback for the senator’s campaign at this stage. The issue is expected to impact polling nu...

Target up, forecast up, band out

TURKEY · Report · 14 May 2026

In today’s much-anticipated Inflation Report, the second of the year, the CBRT raised the interim target to 24% from 16%, the yearend inflation forecast to 26% (from 18%, midpoint) and discontinued the practice of providing a forecast band around its midpoint forecast, the latter because of excep...

Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 May 2026

About a week ago, the Ministry of Finance announced that from May 8 to June 4 it would allocate R110 billion from oil-and-gas revenues to buy FX and gold on the domestic market, in line with the fiscal rule. The Government had originally planned to return to the market in July, but moved the date...

Israel moves closer to early elections; election date expected next week

ISRAEL · In Brief · 13 May 2026

Coalition Whip Ofir Katz submitted a bill on Wednesday to dissolve the 25th Knesset, joined by the heads of all coalition factions, after ultra-Orthodox parties announced, they would work to bring down the government. The announcement reflects growing frustration among ultra-Orthodox parties over...

Disinflation continues, exchange rate gap becomes entrenched

VENEZUELA · Report · 13 May 2026

Monthly inflation fell to 10.6 percent in April from 13.1 percent in March thanks to stronger oil revenues. Central bank forex sales rose, the market rate fell, the pace of official exchange rate depreciation slowed, and the exchange rate gap narrowed. Moreover, April brought an easing of sanctio...

Tariffs on gold, silver, platinum

INDIA · Report · 13 May 2026

The Indian macroeconomy is navigating a dual external shock originating from the Persian Gulf: a contraction in export demand alongside a pronounced escalation in petroleum import costs. The optimal macroeconomic adjustment to these terms-of-trade frictions operates through the price mechanism, s...

Lula is focused on measures aimed at improving his approval ratings, the Public Security PEC is expected to move forward next week, and debate over ending the 6x1 work schedule continues according to the timeline

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 May 2026

President Lula remains firmly focused on measures aimed at improving his approval ratings. Yesterday, two new initiatives were announced. The federal government launched the “Brazil Against Organized Crime” program. Lula also signed a provisional measure eliminating the so-called “clothing tax,” ...

Upcoming Webinar - Iran War and Turkey's macro outlook: What changed?

TURKEY · Report · 13 May 2026

Date: 14 May 2026 Time: 10:00 AM Eastern Time What impact will the war in Iran have on Turkey's economic outlook? Will the conflict create short-term economic pain but potentially lead to long-term gains? What is the trajectory of monetary policy, and how is the CBRT positioning itself? How e...

The macroeconomic adjustment to the 2026 external shock

INDIA · Report · 13 May 2026

The Iran conflict was a terms-of-trade shock to the Indian economy: to energy prices and to the export of goods, services and expatriate labor to Persian Gulf. The macroeconomic vulnerability in India is located in the institutional reluctance to permit price-clearing mechanisms to operate, to de...

Dr. Carter is going home tonight (and some other timely updates)

HUNGARY · In Brief · 13 May 2026

Dr. Carter (see picture below) is a fictional character from the once world famous television series ER (Emergency Room), of course, arguably the favourite of that show among the Hungarian audience. What makes mentioning him timely today is that Hungary has also had its own ER series over the pas...

South African President tripped by the "Farmgate Saga",- with his back against the ropes , fighting for political survival

SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 12 May 2026

On May 8th the Constitutional Court, the highest court in the land, issued a rare verdict instructing the Parliament to commence an inquiry into the conduct of the President by establishing an Impeachment Committee based on the findings of the 2022 Phala Phala Report produced by Parliament's Inde...

Justice Marques will assume the presidency of the TSE, Durigan expects the bill authorizing the government to use oil revenues to be voted on this week, and Ciro Gomes said he will not be running for President

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 May 2026

Justice Kassio Nunes Marques officially assumes the presidency of Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE) today. He will lead the court during the 2026–2028 term and will therefore preside over this year’s elections. Yesterday, Finance Minister Dario Durigan stated that he expects the complementa...