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The Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ) of the Lower House approved the admissibility of two constitutional amendment proposals (PECs) that aim to reduce the workweek in Brazil. In practice, the proposals would eliminate the six-days-on, one-day-off (6x1) schedule. Yesterday, presidential pr...

Kast's Big Beautiful Bill

CHILE · In Brief · 23 Apr 2026

President José Antonio Kast has framed his National Reconstruction Plan as a response to the three crises he claims Chile is facing: economic, political and security. Kast knows that of the three, it is security that has been uppermost in the electorate’s mind. Yet the Plan appears to be centered...

Bulgaria after the elections, Atlanticist but sovereign—the Western/Russian perspective

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 23 Apr 2026

After the landslide victory of Hungary's opposition in a historic election earlier this month, the question many analysts were asking in Brussels was: Who will be Russia's next Orban in the EU?" Just one week later, on April 19, former Bulgarian President Rumen Radev (2017-26) led Progressive Bul...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary

KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 23 Apr 2026

Apr 4 Energy Ministry: Kazakhstan continues to export oil via the CPC system in a regular mode. Apr 9 Parliament: The Senate (upper house) has ratified the agreement with Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan on a possibility of mutual supply of "green" energy. Ministry of Artificial Intelligence and Digital...

Oil flows again through Druzhba towards Hungary; outgoing PM Orbán revoked his effective veto on the EU's €90bn loan to Ukraine

HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 Apr 2026

President Zelenskyy personally announced the other day that Ukraine had completed fixing the now infamous pumping station on the Druzhba oil pipeline, which had been inactive since January 27, due to a missile or drone hit coming from the Russian army. This announcement was followed by technical ...

The energy that comes from oil

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Apr 2026

The real continues on an appreciation trajectory, with performance that stands out relative to developed and emerging peers. The movement reflects higher oil prices, which tend to improve the terms of trade and the country’s external position, combined with strong inflows of foreign capital into ...

Words vs deeds

TURKEY · Report · 22 Apr 2026

The CBRT/MPC left the policy rate unchanged at 37% at today’s meeting, broadly in line with the consensus. The statement notes that the “underlying trend of inflation declined in March” but that “leading indicators suggest a slight increase” in April. It also states that the effects of geopolitic...

The House may vote today on the admissibility of two PECs on the 6x1 work schedule, the STF will review cases challenging the "minimum subsistence level", and today is the deadline for the subsidy for imported diesel

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Apr 2026

Today, the Lower House’s Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJC) is expected to vote on Congressman Paulo Azi’s (União-BA) favorable opinion regarding the admissibility of two constitutional amendment proposals (PECs) addressing the 6-day workweek (6x1 schedule). On today’s agenda at the Suprem...

To what extent was China’s higher-than-expected GDP growth driven by inventory accumulation?

CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 22 Apr 2026

Special points to highlight in this report: - China’s 5.0% GDP growth in Q1 came in above expectations, but the expenditure-side components of GDP growth all came in below expectations. Because the former is the sum of the latter, there seemed to be a discrepancy in the data releases last wee...

Trumping monetary policy: time for BSP to tighten

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 21 Apr 2026

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) faces a clear policy imperative: shift decisively to tightening. The evidence is no longer ambiguous— inflationary pressures are broadening, deepening, and becoming more persistent. We therefore believe that the BSP will initiate tightening monetary policy in...

Kazakhstan macro: GDP growth to moderate this year

KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 21 Apr 2026

According to the Bureau of National Statistics, economic trends looked better in March as the economy continued to recover from the January shock caused by disruptions in oil exports (and accordingly, extraction) due to the damaged CPC oil pipeline terminal. Still, in 1Q26 as a whole, economic g...

Electoral uncertainty persists

PERU · Report · 21 Apr 2026

In this report, we offer an initial assessment of the results of the April 12-13 national elections. We begin by discussing the uncertainty resulting from the tie for second place in the first round of the presidential election, and the difficulties faced by the Oficina Nacional de Procesos Elect...

Geopolitics remain the main driver, shekel strength deepens; inflation under control - Weekly report, April 21, 2026

ISRAEL · Report · 21 Apr 2026

Key developments and outlook - Geopolitics remains the dominant driver: While the recent ceasefires have reduced immediate risks, uncertainty around a potential U.S.-Iran agreement and the fragile ceasefire in Lebanon could lead to another round of fighting in the coming weeks. - For the ...

Tisza is moving forward on all fronts

HUNGARY · In Brief · 21 Apr 2026

The war-hit pumping station of the Druzhba oil pipeline, which has been inactive since January 27, miraculously recovered just a few days after the election in Hungary. There is no connection between the two events, of course. Technical tests have reportedly started today and oil may start to flo...

Legislative-Supreme Court crisis escalates and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Apr 2026

This will be a lighter week due to the Tuesday holiday (Tiradentes Day). President Lula is on an official trip to Europe. A vote is scheduled for Wednesday on the admissibility of constitutional amendments addressing the end of the 6x1 work schedule at the Lower House Constitution and Justice Com...