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The government announced a new set of measures to curb rising fuel prices, an MP should establish a subsidy of R$850 per ton of imported LPG, and a decree was issued to eliminate PIS/Cofins taxes on aviation fuel
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Apr 2026

The federal government announced yesterday a new set of measures to curb rising fuel prices driven by the war in Iran. The main initiative is the establishment of a diesel subsidy, applicable to both imported fuel and domestically produced output. To mitigate the impact on vulnerable households, ...

Stagflation is no longer a risk—it is now a policy test
PHILIPPINES · Report · 07 Apr 2026

The Philippines is entering a more dangerous phase of inflation, with March 2026 data confirming a shift from temporary supply shocks to a broader, more persistent inflation cycle. Rising oil prices, food costs, and early signs of second-round effects are pushing inflation beyond target, while ex...

Bahamas calls election while Jamaica survives Melissa with financial credibility intact
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 07 Apr 2026

The Bahamas Prime Minister Philip “Brave” Davis has announced that Parliament will be dissolved on Wednesday, April 8 with writs of election to be issued the following day for a May 12 election. In his statement, the Prime Minister said: “As we move through this election season, I ask every B...

Better at fighting; worse at governing
UKRAINE · Report · 07 Apr 2026

Ukraine’s improved “middle-strike” capability is emerging as one of the more important battlefield shifts of the current phase of the war. What initially looked like another round of optimistic reporting is increasingly supported by the gap between Russia’s still-high assault intensity and its ne...

Rejection weighs more heavily on Lula and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Apr 2026

President Lula may sign a provisional measure on diesel subsidies, along with support measures for the aviation sector. The government may also submit a proposal to Congress to end the 6x1 work schedule. With the nomination of Jorge Messias to the Supreme Federal Court, the government is resuming...

Vance visit, explosives near Turk Stream not to have any significant impact on election chances
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Apr 2026

President Trump not having the time in these days, it is Vice President Vance who is set to come to Budapest, to promote PM Orbán's election chances, for a two-day visit beginning tomorrow. No one knows what else could happen at his talks with the Hungarian government, but it is a widespread view...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Apr 2026

SURPRISES IN THE ELECTORAL LANDSCAPE AND THE SUPREME COURT UNDER SCRUTINY The deadline for officeholders to step down from their positions and of the party-switching window accelerated the definition of presidential candidacies for the October election, bringing a new development with the pote...

Peru: Fujimori and Alvarez lead in the polls
PERU · In Brief · 06 Apr 2026

Last night pollsters released their latest poll and Keiko Fujimori from Fuerza Popular kept their lead in most polls. Surprising was the run of Carlos Álvarez from Pais para todos, a well known right-wing comedian and he overtook Rafael López Aliaga from Renovation Popular as the second runner.  ...

Lula is expected to issue a subsidy for imported diesel, the Executive Office may submit a bill on the 6x1 work schedule, and the Organized Crime CPI may hear from Galipolo and Campos Neto
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Apr 2026

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) is expected this week to issue a provisional measure creating a subsidy for imported diesel in an effort to mitigate price increases amid the conflict between the United States and Iran. The Executive Branch may also send Congress a bill proposing the elim...

China rebalancing and the Iran War
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 06 Apr 2026

China’s official policy statements stress the importance of rebalancing the economy from industry to consumption—a point stressed by most foreign economists as a key transition. During the 15th Five-Year Plan meeting in March, Premier Li Qiang urged that "industrial upgrading should be driven by ...

Macroeconomic adjustments to the energy shock: the exchange rate and the bond market
INDIA · Report · 06 Apr 2026

The macroeconomic adjustment to the 2026 energy price shock has been complicated by the authorities’ preference for a heavily managed exchange rate. Following the geopolitical escalation involving Iran, India’s terms of trade have suffered, dictating a textbook real depreciation. While the USD/IN...

Past week review and week ahead: macroeconomic and geopolitical developments - Weekly report, April 6, 2026
ISRAEL · Report · 06 Apr 2026

Last week was short due to the Passover holiday, with the main focus on the Bank of Israel's decision to keep rates unchanged at 4.0%. The rate announcement maintains a somewhat hawkish tone due to war and inflation risks. BoI growth forecasts for 2026 were revised down to around 3.8%, although a...

The year of our regression
TURKEY · Report · 05 Apr 2026

The year 2026 is likely to go down in the annals of history as “the Year of Our Regression”, when the Iran War first halted and then began to reverse all progress made in healing the wounds of the Covid-19 pandemic. The war is unlikely to end before June or thereabouts, the politics author believ...

GULF WEEKLY: Smelters and tankers struck, Fitch puts Qatar and RAK on RWN, Qatar and Dubai stimulus packages
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 Apr 2026

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Hopes for peace talks receded, and Trump's statements imply escalation, then unilateral withdrawal. * Attacks on the GCC included Bahrain and UAE aluminum plants, UAE gas, a refinery and power plants in Kuwait and oil tank...

Better than expected headline, tough road ahead
TURKEY · Report · 03 Apr 2026

Consumer prices rose by a somewhat lower than expected 1.9% in March, with the 12-month rate declining to just under 31%, from 31.5% in February. Monthly PPI inflation was 2.3% in March, leading to a modest increase in the 12-month PPI rate to 28.1%, up from 27.6% in the previous month. Benign fo...

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