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On the short-term altar
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Mar 2026

In response to the increase in international prices of oil and derivatives, although Petrobras had not yet commented on a possible pass-through to domestic prices, the government announced measures to limit a potential impact on the price of diesel. It reduced to zero the PIS-Cofins tax levied...

GULF WEEKLY: Iranian strikes kill in four Gulf states, Brent at $100 despite IEA release, East-West Pipeline nears 7m b/d, Qatalum continues operations
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 13 Mar 2026

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Iran’s attacks on the GCC continued this week, but the cadence seems to have slowed somewhat. * There were fatalities from strikes in Bahrain, Oman, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. * Sites hit included the Ruwais refinery (Abu D...

Next week in focus: February CPI, the 2026 state budget, and the third week of the war
ISRAEL · Report · 13 Mar 2026

Next week we focus on three closely linked developments: the war with Iran as it enters its third week, the February CPI to be released on Sunday, and the progress of the 2026 state budget. We estimate that the February CPI will rise by about 0.1%, still reflecting economic conditions prior to th...

Justice Zanin rejected the request to install a CPI on Banco Master, Haddad is expected to step down as Minister of Finance next week, and the federal government announced a reduction in taxes on diesel fuel
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Mar 2026

Justice Cristiano Zanin of the Supreme Federal Court (STF) rejected a request filed by Congressman Rodrigo Rollemberg (PSB-DF) seeking to compel the creation of a Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry (CPI) to investigate alleged irregularities involving Banco Master and Banco de Brasília (BRB). Des...

Increasing uncertainty
INDONESIA · Report · 13 Mar 2026

Indonesia has recently felt increasing uncertainty in the economy, especially related to government finance. The main reason for this is that the government continues to create new programs, for example, the Free Nutritious Meals program (known as "MBG") and the Red and White Village Cooperative....

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Georgia regains investor interest in 2025
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 13 Mar 2026

This week the Georgian statistical office reported the much awaited full-year (2025) data on FDI. Similar to the tourist numbers I discussed earlier, FDI has been the subject of intense discussion and speculation over the course of the last two years as the government and the opposition have offe...

Kast’s Blast from the Past
CHILE · In Brief · 12 Mar 2026

José Antonio Kast has entered Chile’s presidential palace, becoming the first president since Carlos Ibañez del Camp, who left office in 1958, to make the Moneda palace the presidential residence. The move is meant to be a sign of austerity and offer the promise of hard work. Like much of Kast’s ...

Justice Toffoli recused himself from the request to install a CPI on Banco Master, a new poll on the presidential succession was released, and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro’s candidacy continues to gain momentum
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Mar 2026

Justice Dias Toffoli of the Supreme Federal Court (STF) was randomly assigned to report on a writ of mandamus filed by Congressman Rodrigo Rollemberg (PSB-DF) seeking the installation of a Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry (CPI) to investigate Banco Master. However, Toffoli recused himself from ...

CBRT switches to a wait-and-see mode
TURKEY · Report · 12 Mar 2026

As expected, the CBRT/MPC kept the policy rate (together with the O/N lending and borrowing rates) unchanged today at 37%, stressing heightened geopolitical risks, the deterioration in the risk appetite and higher energy prices. In the statement, the reference to “step size” (regarding the magnit...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 12 Mar 2026

Feb 26 National gas company: QazaqGaz and the Qatari UCC Holding have developed a project design for the construction of a second gas processing plant at Kashagan with an annual capacity of 2.5 bcm. EBRD: The bank upgraded Kazakhstan's 2026 GDP growth forecast from 4.5% to 4.7%. Tengizchevroil: O...

Federal budget in 2M26: revenues lag the plan, spending is far ahead
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Mar 2026

The Ministry of Finance reported that in 2M26, the federal budget deficit reached nearly R3.5 trln, which was very close to the annual target of about R3.8 trln. In nominal total terms, revenues were down by 10.8% y-o-y while expenditures were up by 5.8% y-o-y. Oil-and-gas (O&G) revenues were dow...

Iran War Days 11–12: Iran fires on ships as IEA agrees on oil reserve release
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 11 Mar 2026

Highlights Iran struck two oil tankers near Iraq and three cargo ships near Hormuz, and concerns grew about mines in the Strait. ADNOC shut the 922k b/d Ruwais refinery after a drone strike, and drones hit fuel tanks at Oman’s Salalah port. Aramco said it will soon ramp up the East-West Pipeline ...

Daniel Vorcaro may enter into a plea agreement, members of Congress have submitted a request to install a CPI to investigate the Banco Master case, and Lula’s meeting with Trump has been postponed due to the war in Iran
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Mar 2026

In Brasília, the possibility that Daniel Vorcaro may enter into a plea agreement is increasingly being discussed as a real scenario. The decision by Supreme Federal Court (STF) justice and case rapporteur André Mendonça to relax visitation rules for Vorcaro at the federal penitentiary in Brasília...

Iran war fiscal impact model: Kuwait and Qatar hit hardest, Bahrain may need support
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 11 Mar 2026

This report includes a simple model (which clients can manipulate) to estimate the possible fiscal impact of the war. Kuwait and Qatar face the largest fiscal hits due to their near-total reliance on Hormuz-dependent exports, but both have deep reserve buffers. Kuwait will soon need to shut down ...

Slow but steady: South Africa records its fifth consecutive positive GDP growth rate in Q4-2025
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 11 Mar 2026

Real GDP figures released by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) indicate that South Africa’s economy registered its fifth consecutive quarterly expansion, as it increased by 0.4% q/q in the final quarter of 2025. As in previous quarters, Q4-2025 growth was mainly fueled by strong household consum...

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