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The U.S. has decided to designate the CV and PCC as terrorist organizations, Lula will hold a cabinet meeting on Wednesday, and Thursday is a federal holiday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 May 2026

The week appeared headed toward a major victory for the government with the Lower House’s approval of the proposal to eliminate Brazil’s 6x1 work schedule. However, that development was overshadowed by the U.S. government's decision to designate Comando Vermelho (CV) and Primeiro Comando da Capit...

Weekly report, May 29, 2026: Bank of Israel cuts rates, the shekel strengthens further, and the U.S.-Iran deal is still being negotiated
ISRAEL · Report · 29 May 2026

Key developments and outlook: - Negotiations between the United States and Iran continued this week, although President Trump stated that “there is no agreement at the moment” and that the U.S. remains dissatisfied with the talks. - According to reports, the agreement will include restricti...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Armenia after an opposition victory—Georgia 2.0?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 29 May 2026

The parliamentary elections on Jun 7th are increasingly being viewed by market participants as tantamount to reaching a fork in the road. A win by Nikol Pashinyan and his Civil Contract party would reinforce the current westward drift and preserve the positive momentum already visible in Armenian...

Don’t count Cepeda out yet
COLOMBIA · Report · 29 May 2026

Election Day is finally upon us. You hear talk about presidential candidates and voting strategies everywhere, peppered with the latest polling results. As we approach the moment of truth – the first round of voting is on May 31 -- we are slightly more optimistic about the electoral outcome: Left...

Listed company performance appears resilient in turbulent times
INDIA · Report · 29 May 2026

Understanding the Indian macroeconomy necessitates high-frequency, robust data, particularly given the recent onset of the conflict in West Asia and the persisting effects of the 2025 US tariff regime. Traditional aggregate statistics suffer from measurement lags, but corporate earnings releases ...

Middle East war effects come home to roost
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 May 2026

In Costa Rica, the Central Bank’s May 2026 Monetary Policy Report confirms a dual-speed economy. The special regime slowed in Q1 2026 as 2025’s front-loading of U.S.-bound orders faded, while the definitive regime remained weak, despite a construction-led lift from the electoral cycle. Manufactur...

Justice Nunes Marques has given the PGR twenty days to issue an opinion on Bolsonaro’s request for a criminal review, the House approved the end of the 6x1 work schedule, and Lula leads in the latest presidential polls
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 May 2026

Justice Kassio Nunes Marques has given the Office of the Prosecutor General (PGR) twenty days to issue an opinion on former President Jair Bolsonaro’s request for a criminal review of the 27-year-and-three-month prison sentence imposed on him in the criminal case related to the attempted coup d’é...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 28 May 2026

Recent windfalls from oil exports have kept the USD/RUB near the 70 mark over the past two weeks. The market expects the ruble-denominated equivalent of FX purchases for the National Wealth Fund to rise in June to R250-300 bln from R110 bln in May, which could weaken the ruble by 2-3%. In the lon...

Flávio Bolsonaro met with Donald Trump yesterday, the Special Committee is expected to vote on the rapporteur’s report on the 6x1 work schedule, and the Senate may analyze a bill on special uses for the Pre-Salt Social Fund
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 May 2026

Yesterday, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro met with U.S. President Donald Trump. According to Flávio, he told Trump that, if elected, Brazil would have an allied government, and that once elected, he would negotiate agreements that could benefit companies from both countries. Among other objectives, Flá...

Economics: Mexico's economic environment is deteriorating on multiple fronts
MEXICO · Report · 26 May 2026

The US-Iran conflict has driven Brent crude prices 54% above their 2025 historical average, generating inflationary pressures and threatening to slow global growth by between -0.7% and -1.3% in 2026, according to IMF projections. Mexico enters this adverse international environment from a positio...

The rapporteur of the 6x1 work schedule proposal presented his report, the Special Committee on the MEI revenue cap increase continues discussions, and the government is focused on approving the proposal quickly
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 May 2026

Federal Deputy Leo Prates (Republicanos-BA), rapporteur of the proposal to end the 6-on-1-off work schedule, presented his report yesterday before the Special Committee discussing the matter. The goal is to vote on the proposal in committee on Wednesday and subsequently move it to the Lower House...

No change from the MNB and Moody's, difficult talks with EU continue, and further steps are made towards democracy
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 May 2026

Really a lot is happening in these days. Today, the MNB kept the base rate unchanged at 6.25%. The Council discussed a hold and a rate cut scenario, Mr. Varga said after the meeting, and there was (were?) also vote(s?) supporting a rate reduction as well. Positives observed by the Council include...

Politics: 4T balance sheet — a deteriorating outlook
MEXICO · Report · 26 May 2026

Claudia Sheinbaum's government has been largely consumed by managing the difficult legacy inherited from López Obrador. This legacy includes a stagnant and indebted economy, a public security crisis rooted in the "hugs, not bullets" policy toward organized crime, an authoritarian-leaning politica...

On the wrong side
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 May 2026

At the beginning of the month, the federal government announced Novo Desenrola Brasil, a program aimed at household debt restructuring through discounts and lower interest rates. The program, however, is not isolated and is now part of a broader set of measures intended to stimulate consumption t...

Questions after Flávio's setback and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 May 2026

This will be a decisive week for the vote on the 6x1 work schedule proposal. Following the presentation of the rapporteur’s opinion, the expectation is that the text will be submitted to the Special Committee and then to the floor of the Lower House. Bills related to rural debt are also on the ag...

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