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GULF WEEKLY: Construction powers Dubai GDP surge, Qatar’s deficit widens slightly, Saudi tourism gigaprojects to open soon, Sudani leads fragmented Iraqi election
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 14 Nov 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil is set for a weekly gain as a strike on a Russian export terminal briefly offset supply glut worries. * The IEA reinstated a “business as usual” scenario that would see oil demand growing until 2050. * Saudi Arabia re...

Haddad gave an interview yesterday about the bus fares project, next week should be busy despite the holiday, and Lula is expected to sign the income tax exemption bill on Wednesday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Nov 2025

Finance Minister Fernando Haddad gave an interview to O Estado de S. Paulo. As previously reported, he confirmed that the project to eliminate bus fares will not move forward next year and will only be implemented if it proves fiscally viable. Next week is expected to be busy in Brasília, despite...

Upcoming Webinar - Chile election briefing: After the general elections
CHILE · Report · 14 Nov 2025

Were there any surprises in the results of Chile's congressional and presidential elections? Have Chilean voters become polarized? What challenges and opportunities do the presidential candidates face to consolidate support and appeal to voters? Will their strategies shift to the center? What are...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Georgia is not on my mind
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 14 Nov 2025

I feel compelled to write this note on Georgia given that it has again hit the headlines, with the European Commission's annual enlargement report concluding that the country is a "candidate in name only", as well as the government's lawsuit before the Constitutional Court seeking to ban three ke...

Economic growth steadily remains above expectations
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 14 Nov 2025

The Bureau of National Statistics officially announced that in 9M25 the nation’s GDP grew by 6.3% as key segments performed unexpectedly well. The industry was up y-o-y by 7.3% (with mining delivering faster growth at 9.3% while manufacturing grew by 6.2%). Construction delivered 14.9% y-o-y grow...

Motta postpones vote on Anti-Faction Bill today Nov 18, the Senate approved the reappointment of Paulo Gonet as Prosecutor General, and Alcolumbre announced the Senate’s end-of-year voting schedule
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Nov 2025

After requests from party leaders, House President Hugo Motta (Republicanos–PB) postponed until next Tuesday (Nov 18) the vote on the Anti-Faction Bill (PL 5582/25). He therefore denied the 30-day extension requested by right-wing governors. The Senate floor yesterday approved the reappointment o...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 13 Nov 2025

increased by 3.3% m-o-m in October and reached $60.7 bln (18.6% YTD). President: Kazakhstan and Russia intend to increase trade turnover to $30 bln ($28 bln as of 2024). OPEC+: Kazakhstan reduced oil production by 155K bpd in October as a part of compensation of overproduction. President: Kazakhs...

National Treasury Commits to Staying the Fiscal Course, Introducing a New Inflation Target Amid Global Uncertainty
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 13 Nov 2025

Delivering this year’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS), Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana noted that South Africa, like many other nations, is navigating a period of intensifying global competition and deepening economic and political divisions. The MTBPS, tabled annually during eithe...

USDT, OFAC and inflation
VENEZUELA · Report · 12 Nov 2025 · 1 response

We revise down our exchange rate and inflation forecasts for 2025 and present two scenarios for 2026, depending on whether or not U.S. OFAC sanctions on Venezuela are tightened. For November–December 2025, we assume that USDT supply expansion will continue, market acceptance of such will gradu...

Losing confidence, losing steam
PHILIPPINES · Report · 12 Nov 2025

The Philippine economy slowed sharply in the third quarter of 2025, expanding only 4.0% year-on-year—the weakest growth since 2011 outside the pandemic years—due to weak industrial performance, falling investment, and eroding business confidence amid governance scandals. Services remained the mai...

Lula’s approval ratings fell by two percentage points in a new poll, the House may vote on a public security bill, and the Prosecutor General will have his confirmation hearing in the Senate today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Nov 2025

The Paraná Institute released a new poll yesterday, November 11, assessing President Lula’s (PT) administration. After six months, approval ratings fell by two percentage points, reaching 45.9%. The Lower House may vote today on a public security bill. Rapporteur Congressman Guilherme Derrite pre...

Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments – Weekly report, November 12, 2025
ISRAEL · Report · 12 Nov 2025

Geopolitical tensions intensified along Israel’s northern border following massive military strikes against Hezbollah, while Phase-Two ceasefire talks in Gaza show little progress meanwhile. Domestically, the recent leak of classified investigation materials, which led to the dismissal of the Mil...

GCC Quarterly Chartbook and Economic Review
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 12 Nov 2025 · 1 response

This is the second edition of our quarterly chartbook and economic review, which provides a snapshot of the GCC across 18 slides. It starts with an overview of key themes impacting the region in recent months, particularly oil market trends. There are comparative graphs of some of the key economi...

There and back again
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Nov 2025 · 1 response

The minutes of the Copom meeting maintained a tone similar to that of the statement released last week: more confident regarding the convergence of inflation, yet still cautious enough to avoid prompting market movements that could anticipate the start of the easing cycle.

Federal budget deficit widens
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Nov 2025

With the 2026 budget nearing final approval in the State Duma, the 10M25 federal revenue figures were underwhelming. The Ministry of Finance reported overall revenue growth of just 0.8% compared to 10M24. Oil-and-gas revenues dropped 21.4% y-o-y, while non-O&G revenues rose 11.3%. Total revenues ...

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