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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank May 5 -
Brazil Economics databank May 18
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Central America databank Apr 28
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Chile databank Apr 30
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank May 6
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Dominican Republic databank May 14
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Ecuador databank May 22
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Gulf Countries databank May 22
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Hungary databank May 21
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India databank Jun 26
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Mexico databank Apr 30
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Panama databank Mar 6
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Peru databank Apr 30
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Philippines databank May 8
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Poland databank Mar 24
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Russia Economics databank May 18
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South Africa databank May 8
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Turkey databank May 11
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Ukraine databank Mar 9
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Venezuela databank May 7
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR: ARMENIA ELECTIONS - OUTLOOK AND IMPLICATIONS...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Economics: Mexico's economic environment is deteriorating on multiple fronts
MEXICO · Report · 26 May 2026
The US-Iran conflict has driven Brent crude prices 54% above their 2025 historical average, generating inflationary pressures and threatening to slow global growth by between -0.7% and -1.3% in 2026, according to IMF projections. Mexico enters this adverse international environment from a positio...
The rapporteur of the 6x1 work schedule proposal presented his report, the Special Committee on the MEI revenue cap increase continues discussions, and the government is focused on approving the proposal quickly
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 May 2026
Federal Deputy Leo Prates (Republicanos-BA), rapporteur of the proposal to end the 6-on-1-off work schedule, presented his report yesterday before the Special Committee discussing the matter. The goal is to vote on the proposal in committee on Wednesday and subsequently move it to the Lower House...
No change from the MNB and Moody's, difficult talks with EU continue, and further steps are made towards democracy
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 May 2026
Really a lot is happening in these days. Today, the MNB kept the base rate unchanged at 6.25%. The Council discussed a hold and a rate cut scenario, Mr. Varga said after the meeting, and there was (were?) also vote(s?) supporting a rate reduction as well. Positives observed by the Council include...
Politics: 4T balance sheet — a deteriorating outlook
MEXICO · Report · 26 May 2026
Claudia Sheinbaum's government has been largely consumed by managing the difficult legacy inherited from López Obrador. This legacy includes a stagnant and indebted economy, a public security crisis rooted in the "hugs, not bullets" policy toward organized crime, an authoritarian-leaning politica...
On the wrong side
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 May 2026
At the beginning of the month, the federal government announced Novo Desenrola Brasil, a program aimed at household debt restructuring through discounts and lower interest rates. The program, however, is not isolated and is now part of a broader set of measures intended to stimulate consumption t...
Questions after Flávio's setback and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 May 2026
This will be a decisive week for the vote on the 6x1 work schedule proposal. Following the presentation of the rapporteur’s opinion, the expectation is that the text will be submitted to the Special Committee and then to the floor of the Lower House. Bills related to rural debt are also on the ag...
The name of the rose
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 May 2026
We recently published a report in which we argued that inertia in inflation expectations results, at least in part, from the Central Bank's own policy stance. By adopting a strategy that favors the slow convergence of inflation to the target, that is, over a period longer than the so-called "rele...
The Bank of Israel cuts interest rate by 25 basis points, maintains hawkish tone
ISRAEL · In Brief · 25 May 2026
The Bank of Israel yesterday lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%, following previous rate cuts in December 2025 and January 2026. The move was widely expected by the markets and most forecasters. The chart shows the Bank of Israel’s policy rate, which was reduced in De...
Under pressure
TURKEY · Report · 24 May 2026 · 3 responses
With the stroke of a gavel, CHP was returned to former chairman Kemal Kilicdarolgu, triggering a bitter and legally murky leadership battle. The politics author nevertheless thinks court-deposed chairman Ozgur Ozel has the upper hand, and if he loses the legal battle for the soul of the party, re...
GULF WEEKLY: Qatar steps in to mediate, UK-GCC FTA signed, Oman records small Q1 deficit
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 22 May 2026
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Trump paused assault plans as Qatar and other Gulf states stepped in to mediate with Iran. * This came after Iran formally launched its “Persian Gulf Strait Authority” to administer transits. * A drone launched from Iraq ...
Good news for the Canal and the country, progress on copper and news on public finances
PANAMA · Report · 22 May 2026
The selection of Ilya Espino de Marotta, currently Deputy Administrator and Chief Sustainability Officer of the Panama Canal Authority (ACP), as the Canal’s next Administrator is good news for institutional continuity, technical credibility and the execution of the agency's medium-term investment...
The Ministry of Finance is finalizing the framework for the Desenrola program, the House should vote on the 6x1 work schedule next week, and results of four presidential polls may be released today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 May 2026
Finance Minister Dario Durigan said yesterday that the Ministry is finalizing the “framework” for a new version of the Desenrola program aimed at consumers who remain current on their payments but face a risk of indebtedness. The Lower House’s final debate and vote on the proposed constitutional ...
Bank of Israel rate decision on Monday in focus amid Iran tensions and stronger shekel
ISRAEL · In Brief · 22 May 2026
The Bank of Israel will announce its interest-rate decision on Monday. Financial markets are currently pricing in around a 60% probability of a rate cut. The case for a rate cut is evident and is supported by the relatively moderate inflation environment (1.9% y-o-y, with core inflation at 1.5%)...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: London trip notes
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 22 May 2026
I visited clients in London this week to discuss Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, and I briefly summarize my impressions in this report. Countries can be most usefully arranged in three distinctive groups depending on client interest. Most attention was devoted...
A fraught atmosphere
ECUADOR · Report · 21 May 2026
Since November 2023, President Daniel Noboa has made twenty changes in his ministerial cabinet. The Ministry of the Interior and the Ministry of Health have been the areas of greater rotation, at six ministers each. Immediately after his defeat last November in the public referendum, Noboa change...