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Putin wants to be rid of foreign tech as Russia's war slows.
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 21 May 2022
On May 20 Putin said that Russia needs technological sovereignty. Russian missiles usually use Western electronics. Civilian vehicles often rely on Western components. The lack of Western components is going to prove a significant headache for Russian military and civilian manufacturing. Russia c...

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GULF WEEKLY: Qatar and US delegations visit UAE, Oman considers gas pipeline IPO, Hezbollah loses majority
GULF COUNTRIES - Report 20 May 2022
​A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent touched $115 as Russian oil output fell -by 9% in April but is displacing Iranian exports to China. * The EU launched a strategic plan for engaging with the GCC. * Saudi Arabia achieved a 6% of GDP fiscal surplus in ...

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The quality of Chinese growth is deteriorating
CHINA FINANCIAL - Report 20 May 2022
Special points to highlight in this issue: * This week’s data release by the National Bureau of Statistics was expected to be bad, but in fact was worse than expected. For me the most worrying number is the 8.2 percentage-point gap between April’s year-on-year decline in retail sales and the ...

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Webinar Replay: Is India on track for a robust recovery?
INDIA - Report 20 May 2022
Get insight into India's macro outlook for 2022 and the potential for an economic recovery. Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring economist Dr. Ajay Shah discussing India's recovery and the state of the Indian economy.

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Guedes said that he would likely continue in the government if Bolsonaro is re-elected, the energy and fuel tariffs remain an issue, and the government publishes the income and expenditure report today
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 20 May 2022
This was the first time Paulo Guedes admitted to the possibility of staying in the government. President Jair Bolsonaro had already stated that the relationship between the two is still very good and that, if he would like, Guedes would continue in a possible second term. The president of the Hou...

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Pandemic statistics update - May 20, 2022
CHINA ADVISORY - Report 20 May 2022
Xi Jinping’s lockdown policies are facing increasing opposition. Videos have been posted online about protests at Peking University, where the children of the elite attend university. The open confrontation, in both Beijing and Shanghai, is surprising but the harsh measures are clearly causing si...

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A 50-basis point increase in the repo rate by the South African Reserve Bank
SOUTH AFRICA - Report 19 May 2022
The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) has once again announced that it is hiking the benchmark interest rate, by 50 basis points – its largest since the beginning of 2016. This was following this week’s conclusion of its Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) third meeting of the year. The repo rate t...

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The TCU approved the privatization of Eletrobras, the third-way alliance decided to appoint Senator Simone Tebet as its presidential candidate, and President Bolsonaro calls for the impeachment of Minister Alexandre de Moraes
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 19 May 2022
The government is racing against time to privatize Eletrobras before the election. The goal is for it to take place in June. The matter may still be taken to court — and the opposition certainly will do this. The leaderships of the third way parties will meet separately on Tuesday, May 24, to dec...

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Monetary Board increases policy rates by 25bp
PHILIPPINES - In Brief 19 May 2022
Following rising domestic inflation and inflation expectations, firmer recovery in domestic demand and a more hawkish US Fed stance, the policy making body of the BSP decided today to raise its set of policy rates by 25bp. This will bring the overnight reverse repurchase rate (RRP), which has bee...

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Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 19 May 2022
So far, the EU has failed to introduce the sixth package of sanctions, which was supposed to include some kind or embargo on Russian oil and oil-refined products. At the same time, the Western countries continue to discuss some other restrictions on energy imports from Russia (such as imposing sp...

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​GDP was up by 3.5% y-o-y in 1Q22 – better than expected
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 19 May 2022
Rosstat reported that the Russian GDP was up by 3.5% in 1Q22, which was not too bad a result given that in March the economy was already affected by the "special military operation". Therefore, the fact that the most recent forecast by the Economics Ministry, published a couple of days ago, was l...

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Protests in Armenia threaten PM
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 18 May 2022
On May 17 over 400 people were arrested for a demonstration in Yerevan that obstructed streets. They were demanding that Prime Minister Pashinian resign. The city center was in gridlock due to the protestors obstructing traffic. Since May 1 there has been a concerted effort to force Pashinian fro...

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Russian macro: drafting the budget for 2023 and beyond
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - Report 18 May 2022
As Russia continues its journey to an unknown future, while the country’s economy has to undergo a kind of counter-transformation, i.e., from an open-market-oriented version toward a more closed one, the government has started to shape the 2023-2025 rolling budget. Such planning assumes a baselin...

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The TCU resumes judgment of the privatization of Eletrobras, the third-way alliance will meet to discuss the poll results that may help the bloc select its presidential candidate, and the public servants’ salary issue continues
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 18 May 2022
The trial in the TCU was interrupted by a request for a review by Minister Vital do Rego. According to the statements made in the last session of the TCU on the matter, the probability is for the process to be approved. But there may be some caveats. There is no consensus in the third-way allianc...

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Moscow hosts summit of its allies
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 18 May 2022
On May 16 Putin hosted the president of five member states of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). CSTO members are Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. It marked the 30th anniversary of the foundation of the CSTO. The meeting was scheduled months ago.Putin is k...