GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

The CBRT/MPC left the policy rate unchanged at 37%, 300 bps below the funding rate, broadly as expected. There was no material change in the statement other than a more explicit reference to demand weakness.

Lula has expanded his lead over Flávio Bolsonaro in the polls, the Senate CCJ approved the PEC on the financial autonomy of the Central Bank, and the House approved a bill that would lead to free urban public transportation

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Jun 2026

The Genial/Quaest poll released yesterday showed that President Lula (PT) has expanded his lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) to ten percentage points in the first-round simulation (39% to 29%). In May, the gap stood at six points (39% to 33%). One issue that advanced in the Senate despite r...

Kazakhstan macro: high oil prices and the tax reform support budget revenues in 5M26

KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 11 Jun 2026

The Ministry of Finance announced that in 5M26, total revenues of the republican budget reached nearly KZT9.3 trln, or 40.5% of the annual plan. While this looks solid overall, tax revenues of KZT7.3 trln fell slightly short in our view, hitting 38.3% of the yearly target. The Ministry of Finance...

Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Jun 2026

The FX market saw sharp swings in early June, with the exchange rate dropping nearly 5% after the Finance Ministry announced it was boosting hard currency purchases under the fiscal rule from R110 bln in May to R208 bln in June. The ruble’s slide didn’t last long though, as it regained most of it...

How does MEPCO work? A brief guide to understanding how fuel prices are stabilized

CHILE · Report · 10 Jun 2026

The Fuel Price Stabilization Mechanism (MEPCO), as its name suggests, is a mechanism that seeks to smooth sharp changes in consumer fuel prices. In principle, it does not seek to eliminate increases or declines, but rather to ensure that they reach the market gradually. Its main objective is t...

Seeking stability with no takeoff in sight

ARGENTINA · Report · 10 Jun 2026

The debate surrounding Argentina's outlook increasingly revolves around a simple but consequential issue. Can the economy recover before inflation reaches truly low levels, or must inflation fall further before a meaningful recovery can occur? A weaker peso risks reigniting inflation. A stable p...

Budget deficit remains stable in May despite the war; stronger tax revenues support fiscal outlook

ISRAEL · In Brief · 10 Jun 2026

Israel's fiscal deficit remained broadly unchanged in May at 3.8% of GDP (more precisely, 3.75%), equivalent to approximately NIS 81 billion. The monthly deficit in May totaled NIS 8.3 billion, broadly similar to the deficit recorded in May 2025. Overall, the fiscal data remain favorable for the ...

The TSE began discussions on whether the AtlasIntel poll violated Brazil’s electoral legislation, Alcolumbre met with José Guimarães regarding the 6x1 proposal, and the House may vote on the fuel tax offset bill

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Jun 2026

The Superior Electoral Court (TSE) began deliberating yesterday on whether to uphold the individual decision issued by the Court’s president, Justice Kassio Nunes Marques, who on Monday (June 8) ordered the removal of content and suspended the publication of a poll conducted by AtlasIntel. Senate...

Likely base rate cut in June, further major progress towards meeting conditions for EU funds

HUNGARY · Report · 10 Jun 2026

Our regular readers are most probably fully aware that we have long been hesitating to join the rapidly increasing camp of macro analysts who predict an early reduction of the MNB base rate. However, yesterday's release of the CPI-inflation data for May has changed our view in this regard. Analys...

Mindanao Earthquake: A Humanitarian Crisis and a Test of Governance

PHILIPPINES · Report · 10 Jun 2026

Every year, the Philippines confronts major natural disasters, from typhoons and floods to volcanic eruptions and earthquakes. Yet 2026 has proven particularly devastating. On the morning of June 8, a powerful magnitude 7.8 earthquake struck offshore near Sarangani Province, making it one of the ...

Likely base rate cut in June, further major progress towards meeting conditions for EU funds

HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Jun 2026

Our regular Readers are most probably fully aware that we have been hesitating for long to join the rapidly increasing camp of macro analysts who predict an early reduction of the MNB base rate. However, yesterday's release of the CPI-inflation data for May has changed our view in this regard. An...

Fujimori to become the next president

PERU · Report · 09 Jun 2026

We are the final leg of Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales (ONPE, the office responsible for organizing the election) vote counting and the odds of Keiko Fujimori becoming the next president has increased.

The Mencken theorem

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Jun 2026 · 2 responses

The persistence of high interest rates has led to proposals to raise Brazil’s inflation target, currently set at 3%. It is argued that, due to inflation inertia, still a legacy of the hyperinflationary period, the Central Bank faces difficulties in reducing the Selic rate. This idea is mistaken. ...

South Africa records its sixth consecutive quarterly growth in Q1-2026

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 09 Jun 2026

Real quarterly GDP increased by 0.5% q/q in the first quarter of 2026, following an expansion of 0.4% q/q during the fourth quarter of 2025. This, meanwhile, represents the sixth consecutive positive quarterly growth rate. The latest GDP print indicates that the South African economy maintained i...

Another turn in the war: disrupted Russian frontline logistics and blockade of the land corridor to occupied Crimea

UKRAINE · Report · 09 Jun 2026

The war has taken another turn, and this time clearly in Ukraine's favor. Ukrainian forces have expanded their medium-range drone strike capabilities to the point where this instrument of war is now affecting the battlefield strategically. By May, it was unmistakable that Ukrainian forces had in ...