Country Insights

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RusHydro debuts Eurobond
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 18 Nov 2018
On 15 November RusHydro debuted the largest ever Russian Eurobond denominated in Renminbi to date. The issuance was for 3 year bonds worth USD 216 million (in Yuan). This is the very first time that a Russian company has issued a Eurobond for offshore investors ...

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The troubles of diplomacy
RUSSIA POLITICS - Report 16 Nov 2018
The US intention to withdraw from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty has caused a certain level of anxiety in Moscow as it may potentially lead to a new round in the arms race. However, there is also some optimism among Russia’s elite because disarmame...

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Macroeconomic policy is at crossroads
HUNGARY - Report 16 Nov 2018
GDP growth remained markedly more robust than expected in Q3 2018, due to strength of the non-government services sector. Rapid growth was also supported by construction activity, whereas industrial output was held back by car manufacturing and the weakening cyc...

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Does monetary policy work?
CHINA ADVISORY - Report 16 Nov 2018
Does Chinese monetary policy work? If the central bank changes interest rates, does the market react? Or are interest rates irrelevant and only fiscal policy – direct intervention – effective? These questions are essential to understand the effectiveness of i...

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Stress in NBFCs and real estate companies
INDIA - Report 16 Nov 2018
We review the stages of the slow-moving crisis in Indian finance. At present, NBFCs are facing a stress test. We analyze the small subset of listed NBFCs and identify the firms that have fared the best and worst since the date of the IL&FS default. We also ident...

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Kazakh Bank to IPO on LSE
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 15 Nov 2018
Kaspi Bank announced on November 9 that it will launch an IPO next year, listing shares on the London Stock Exchange. Kaspi is one of Kazakhstan's most profitable banks. It has made a profit of over USD 200 million so far this year. The announcement came on the ...

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Policy rates hiked anew
PHILIPPINES - In Brief 15 Nov 2018
Citing the need to be proactive in managing the many external and domestic risks, the Monetary Board today raised its policy rates by 25bp, bringing the overnight RRP rate to 4.75%, a cumulative 175bp increase year to date. Even as it continued to tighten policy...

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A new census portrays a very different country
COLOMBIA - Report 14 Nov 2018
Preliminary 2018 census results delivered many surprises, most posing severe challenges for future economic and social policies. First, there are 45.5 million people living in Colombia, not the 50 million many had been projecting for years. Among major public po...

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Q3 GDP was stronger than expected
HUNGARY - In Brief 14 Nov 2018
GDP growth in Q3 was reported by the KSH at an unadjusted 4.8% yoy, just slightly down from 4.9% yoy in Q2, and substantially stronger than the 4.3% yoy analyst expectation (which we were in agreement with). This means 4.7% yoy cumulative growth for the first th...

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Economics: Pemex and the state of the industry
MEXICO - Report 13 Nov 2018
The recovery in international oil prices bolstered Pemex’s sales and short-term financial situation in the third quarter, but its operating results leave much to be desired. The company’s oil production continues to plummet owing to deep cuts to Pemex’s explo...

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Politics: The challenge of Central American caravans
MEXICO - Report 13 Nov 2018
The Central American caravans of recent weeks have had much more of a political impact than past efforts by migrants in the region to collectively enter and in many cases cross Mexican territory, especially given the way US President Donald Trump made it his foc...

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Russia opposes oil production cut
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 13 Nov 2018
On 12 November President Putin announced that he does not want Russian consumers to be hurt by an oil price rise.On 11 November OPEC met in Abu Dhabi. There was a spirited debate about an oil production cut. The aim would be to raise prices. Iran and Saudi Arabi...

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Cash, just in time for elections
UKRAINE - Report 13 Nov 2018
The situation in Ukraine has been intense in recent weeks. Residential gas prices have finally been raised by 23.5%, and the IMF immediately announced a staff-level agreement on a new 14-month Standby arrangement—a credit line worth up to $3.9 billion. This posi...

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Q3 GDP data tomorrow: moderate slowdown is expected
HUNGARY - In Brief 13 Nov 2018's analyst poll expects a moderate slowdown for Q3 GDP, to an unadjusted 4.3% yoy growth rate in real terms, after 4.9% yoy in Q2. We agree with that consensus: preliminary and partial data are indeed hinting at some moderate deceleration for the thi...

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Strong growth prospects, but politics could hamper business confidence
PERU - Forecast 12 Nov 2018
Strong recovery in H1 was mainly due to a favorable base effect, after the H1 2017 slowdown caused by the El Niño disasters. Though we expect growth of just 2.5% in Q3, growth should speed up in Q4, taking into account the start of the fishing season, and strong...