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Moreno aims at recovering his public image
ECUADOR - Report 24 May 2018
An encouraging and positive President Moreno gave his first report to the Nation as is customary after the first year in office. The change in style from his predecessor was evident and consistent in every section of his speech and brought hope on the economic p...

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Interest rate cuts aborted as pressure on inflation mounts
SOUTH AFRICA - Report 24 May 2018
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank today voted to keep the bench mark interest rate at 6.5%. This was following its decision to cut rates by 25 basis points in March 2018 (their second rate cut since a succession of increases s...

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Truckers’ strike
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 24 May 2018
The government is going through a very delicate moment, perhaps one of the worst since Michel Temer became president. Even during the explosion of the JBS crisis, the government at least had a solid majority in Congress. Today, the government’s dealings with t...

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Muddle-through, it is
TURKEY - In Brief 24 May 2018
I am writing this note to augment Dr. Murat Ucer’s commentary on CBRT action, titled “CBRT Finally Acts, Avoids the Worst – For Now”.Our audience should recall, that Murat and I have now focused our combined energies on forecasting two variables: Can Turkey surv...

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Nobody won
VENEZUELA - In Brief 23 May 2018
Maduro’s victory on 20 May didn’t convince anyone, neither at home nor abroad. New U.S. sanctions and Lima Group pressures limit further the government’s room to maneuver. It’s too soon to tell whether Maduro strengthened his grip on chavismo after his 20 May vi...

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Reaching the inflexion point?
PERU - Report 23 May 2018
President Martín Vizcarra’s cabinet presented its plan to Congress, and won the body’s necessary vote of confidence, 94-19. The leftist parties dissented, but Keiko Fujimori’s Fuerza Popular party, which controls 50% of Congress, responded positively. Though som...

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​CBRT Finally Acts, Avoids the Worst – For Now
TURKEY - In Brief 23 May 2018
At an emergency interim meeting held this evening in Ankara, the CBRT’s Monetary Policy Committee raised the Late Liquidity Window (LLW) rate – which has been the de facto policy rate -- by 300 bps to 16.5%, from 13.5%, leaving all other rates unchanged (Graph 1...

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Ideology and somnolence
COLOMBIA - Report 23 May 2018
Our forecast for the Sunday, May 27, first-round presidential election is that the most likely pair to advance to the second round is Duque-Petro, to which we assign a probability of 55%. The second most likely is Duque-Vargas (35% probability), and the third is...

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LAST MINUTE: CBRT capitulates, hikes rates
TURKEY - In Brief 23 May 2018
CBRT MPC just finished an extrordinary meeting, announcing a 300 basis point hike to the ceiling of the Late Liquidity Windom financing rate. Our team will issue a detailed post-mortem after consultations, but needless to say this action validates to some extent...

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The first half of the game is almost over
CHILE - Report 23 May 2018
The Monthly Index of Economic Activity delivered some good news in March – even though its growth was strongly favored by the low comparison base in mining. And business confidence was positive for the fourth consecutive month. Industrial production continued to...

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Monetary Council meeting: Laissez faire, laissez passer
HUNGARY - In Brief 22 May 2018
Whatever central bank action the most recent depreciation of the forint vis-a-vis the euro could require, the Monetary Council did or said almost exactly nothing at today's rate-setting meeting. The Council essentially said that both its interest rates and its o...

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Polls reveal a record number of undecided, blank and null votes and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 21 May 2018
Three new polls on the presidential succession may be released tomorrow, May 22. Also on Tuesday, PT governors discuss the presidential succession with Party President Gleisi Hoffmann. Tomorrow, the MDB presents a preliminary version of the document "Encontro c...

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Politics: How one less candidate affects the race
MEXICO - Report 21 May 2018
With her campaign deeply in debt and lacking any hope of attracting major funding sources, Margarita Zavala announced May 16 that she was bowing out of the presidential race and leaving her supporters to follow their conscience in deciding how to vote this summe...

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Economics: Data load for plans to tackle poverty
MEXICO - Report 21 May 2018
According to Coneval’s latest evaluation of social policy, multidimensional poverty results have been decidedly mixed over the past decade. The number of people living in poverty has risen by almost 6 million in the past decade in the wake of the 2008 global fin...

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Much ado about nothing
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 21 May 2018
Until recently the low interest rates in the United States and other mature countries – and the other side of the same coin, the low risk aversion – were causing demand for the assets of emerging countries to climb, strengthening their currencies and reducing th...