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The macroeconomic adjustment to the 2026 external shock
INDIA · Report · 13 May 2026

The Iran conflict was a terms-of-trade shock to the Indian economy: to energy prices and to the export of goods, services and expatriate labor to Persian Gulf. The macroeconomic vulnerability in India is located in the institutional reluctance to permit price-clearing mechanisms to operate, to de...

Dr. Carter is going home tonight (and some other timely updates)
HUNGARY · In Brief · 13 May 2026

Dr. Carter (see picture below) is a fictional character from the once world famous television series ER (Emergency Room), of course, arguably the favourite of that show among the Hungarian audience. What makes mentioning him timely today is that Hungary has also had its own ER series over the pas...

South African President tripped by the "Farmgate Saga",- with his back against the ropes , fighting for political survival
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 12 May 2026

on May 8th the Constitutional Court, the highest court in the land, isssued a rare verdict instructing the Parliament to commence an inquiry into the conduct of the President by establishing an Impeachment Committee based on the findings of the 2022 Phala Phala Report produced by Parliament's Ind...

Justice Marques will assume the presidency of the TSE, Durigan expects the bill authorizing the government to use oil revenues to be voted on this week, and Ciro Gomes said he will not be running for President
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 May 2026

Justice Kassio Nunes Marques officially assumes the presidency of Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE) today. He will lead the court during the 2026–2028 term and will therefore preside over this year’s elections. Yesterday, Finance Minister Dario Durigan stated that he expects the complementa...

Ukraine reaches solid financial ground; finally, a better outlook amid endless war
UKRAINE · Report · 12 May 2026

Ukraine’s near-term outlook has improved materially on financing, but not on peace. Presidential Chief of Staff Kyrylo Budanov’s optimistic comments to Bloomberg about “good progress” in negotiations briefly lifted Ukrainian Eurobonds, yet this looked more like market overreaction than a signal o...

Budget deficit narrows in April on stronger-than-expected tax revenues
ISRAEL · In Brief · 12 May 2026

The budget deficit over the past 12 months narrowed to 3.8% of the GDP in April, down from 4.2% in March and 4.7% in February. The better-than-expected figure was driven by stronger tax revenues, which rose by 5% year-on-year in real terms. Direct and indirect tax revenues both increased by aroun...

The succession chessboard in three key states and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 May 2026

The Special Committee in the Lower House discussing the end of the 6x1 work schedule will hear from Finance Minister Dario Durigan and the head of the Presidential Secretariat-General, Guilherme Boulos. Justice Kassio Nunes Marques will be sworn in as president of the Superior Electoral Court (TS...

Politics: Key legislative takeaways from the Congressional period that ended on April 30
MEXICO · Report · 11 May 2026

The congressional session that concluded on April 30 was one of the least productive in recent memory, despite Morena holding a legislative supermajority. Three bills stood out among the 61 approved across both chambers. The first is the electoral reform. The bill that was ultimately passed bo...

Is Indonesia growing faster?
INDONESIA · Report · 11 May 2026

Indonesia is entering an interesting period. As just released by the Central Board of Statistics, Indonesia's economy grew 5.61% Y/Y in the first quarter of 2026. At a time when the global economy is in the midst of major geopolitical uncertainty, especially due to the US, Israel vs. Iran war, In...

With a little help from my (not so close) friends
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 May 2026

Brazilian trade balance should benefit considerably from the oil shock, given the country’s position as a net exporter of this product. Our projections indicate that the oil trade surplus could approach USD $56 billion in 2026. Moreover, there is a deepening trade relationship with China and the ...

Weekly report, May 11, 2026: Iran rejects ceasefire proposal; Israeli politics heats up, while markets focus on April CPI, the shekel, and the upcoming rate decision
ISRAEL · Report · 11 May 2026

Key developments and outlook: - Iran rejected the U.S. proposal to end the war: Israel assassinated a senior Hezbollah commander in Beirut, while fighting in southern Lebanon and exchanges of fire in the Gulf region continue. A diplomatic settlement appears unlikely in the near term, with the...

The committee on the 6x1 work schedule will hear from the Finance Minister, the rapporteur for the bill on the MEI revenue threshold should present his work plan, and Justice Marques will assume the presidency of the TSE
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 May 2026

The Special Committee in the Lower House discussing the end of the 6x1 work schedule will hold two public hearings this week. On Tuesday (May 12), the committee will hear from Finance Minister Dario Durigan. The rapporteur for Complementary Bill (PLP) No. 108/21, which raises the maximum annual g...

Economics: Poor Q1 public finance figures; Pemex remains a persistent burden
MEXICO · Report · 11 May 2026

In the first quarter of 2026, public finances deteriorated, casting serious doubt on whether a genuine "fiscal consolidation" process is actually underway this year — that is, whether a meaningful reduction in fiscal deficits, and in particular in the Broad Public Sector Borrowing Requirements (P...

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst
TURKEY · Report · 10 May 2026

In domestic politics, there is not much to write home about. President Erdogan seems to have put all urgent domestic policy issues, such as how to get rid of CHP indefinitely on hold, pending the outcome of the Iran War, to which the politics author stubbornly refers to as the Gulf Crisis. This p...

Domestic political risk has fallen markedly: Péter Magyar elected for prime minister today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 May 2026

The newly elected National Assembly held its first session today. Péter Magyar was elected for prime minister, the institutional structure of the new government, meaning the list of ministries, is now approved, and the new government cabinet is expected to be up and running by May 12, Tuesday. Th...

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