GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The most serious clashes since April happened after Iran attacked ships, including a Qatari LNG carrier and a Saudi oil tanker. * Trump declared that the MoU is “over”, but Qatari mediators are back in Iran today trying to...

The Gecex approved the temporary maintenance of the 12% Export Tax on crude oil, next week will be the final week of legislative activity before the recess, and the U.S. will decide whether to implement the 25% tariff

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Jul 2026

At a meeting held yesterday (July 9), the Executive Management Committee of the Chamber of Foreign Trade (Gecex) approved the temporary maintenance of the 12% Export Tax rate on crude oil. According to the committee, the measure was adopted in response to the deterioration of the international en...

Further progress in EU relations, and a major power test is coming next week.

HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Jul 2026

The EU Commission has been reported today as having approved Hungary's accession to the European Public Prosecutor's Office (EPPO). EPPO will have the right to investigate local wrongdoings related to the use of EU funds, continuously from now on and retroactively going back to June 2021, when it...

Federal budget revenue collection improved in June but not enough

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 10 Jul 2026

The Ministry of Finance released preliminary federal budget execution data for 1H26, showing non-oil-and-gas revenues jumping m-o-m by about one-third, largely due to some taxes being paid quarterly. Still, such a sharp m-o-m rise seemed unusual, as it’s often much more moderate. While this could...

Geopolitical tailwinds lift Armenia’s external accounts

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 10 Jul 2026

While Kyrgyzstan reported its full-year 2025 BoP data only last week, the rest of the CCA region already released their external accounts for the first quarter of 2026 over the course of the past week. I generally prefer to comment on them in a single post, but this time around I have decided to ...

Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Jul 2026

The FX market stayed volatile, with intraday swings of three to four rubles. Despite ongoing sell-offs in the securities market, the ruble gained slightly thanks to strong export earnings inflows. Adding to that, the CBR nearly halted its “mirroring” operations, i.e., buying hard currency, given ...

The period for party conventions begins on July 20, the war between the U.S. and Iran has once again increased oil prices, and the Central Bank faces uncertainty regarding interest rates

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Jul 2026

The period for party conventions begins on July 20. The main parties with presidential candidates have already scheduled the dates of their respective conventions. Flavio Bolsonaro is expected to choose a female running mate with the aim of reducing his resistance among female voters. The war bet...

Flávio Bolsonaro defended Pix in the USTR public hearing, there is still no agreement on the rural debt renegotiation bill, and two new presidential polls should be published today

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Jul 2026

At a public hearing held yesterday at the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) defended suspending the proposed surcharge on Brazilian products and maintaining Pix. There is still no agreement between the government and Congress on the proposal...

Trump – Erdogan summit: A clean break, but not necessarily a break-through

TURKEY · In Brief · 07 Jul 2026

The moment Trump’s Air Force 1 landed in Ankara, where he was personally welcomed by Erdogan, Trump began heaping praise on the latter, which continued before and after the summit press comments. It is certain that the troubled Turko-American relationship made a clean break with its past, with re...

Explaining the Differences Between MECON’s Financing Program, Released Yesterday, and My Own Estimates Published Last Week

ARGENTINA · In Brief · 07 Jul 2026

As expected, the government yesterday released its financing program for 2026 and 2027 in response to strong market demand. While the announcement has helped assuage investor concerns about the administration’s ability to service debt maturing this year and next, it leaves some important question...

Losing Crimea would end Putin’s regime, so new escalation likely

UKRAINE · Report · 07 Jul 2026

Ukraine's drone-based logistical blockade of Crimea is proving effective, while still in its early stages of scaling, backed by tens of billions of dollars in EU funding. Unlike Kherson in 2022, when Washington restrained Ukraine from destroying the encircled Russian grouping, external limits on ...

Flávio Bolsonaro will participate in the USTR public hearing, Motta will meet with the FPA to discuss the rural debt renegotiation bill, and the president of the CNI requested predictability for the Selective Tax under tax reform

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Jul 2026

Today, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) will participate in a public hearing in the United States to discuss the proposed additional 25% tariff on Brazilian products. The son of former President Jair Bolsonaro is expected to speak for five minutes. Today, Speaker of the House Hugo Motta (Republic...

Economics: Banxico faces high uncertainty amid still-uncontrolled core inflation and the Fed rate outlook

MEXICO · Report · 07 Jul 2026 · 1 response

Banxico's Governing Board unanimously held the reference rate at 6.5% at its last monetary policy meeting, closing out an easing cycle that had accumulated a 475-basis-point reduction since March 2024. The pace of cuts had been rapid, and the pause comes at a time when core inflation remains abov...

Oops! Inflation was down again in June

HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Jul 2026

The headline rate of CPI-inflation fell marginally in June, to 1.7% yoy from the previous month’s 1.8%, defying analyst and MNB expectations of a small rise, to 1.9-2%. It looks lüke the strong forint is indeed very powerful, whereas normalising energy prices and the global food price cycle are a...

Weekly report, July 6, 2026: Bank of Israel cuts rates and upgrades the macro outlook

ISRAEL · Report · 06 Jul 2026

The Bank of Israel lowered its policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.50%, in line with our expectations and market pricing. This follows previous rate cuts in December 2025, January 2026 and May 2026, bringing cumulative easing to 100bp over the past seven months. The tone has become somewhat le...