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The Ministry of Finance is finalizing the framework for the Desenrola program, the House should vote on the 6x1 work schedule next week, and results of four presidential polls may be released today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 May 2026

Finance Minister Dario Durigan said yesterday that the Ministry is finalizing the “framework” for a new version of the Desenrola program aimed at consumers who remain current on their payments but face a risk of indebtedness. The Lower House’s final debate and vote on the proposed constitutional ...

Bank of Israel rate decision on Monday in focus amid Iran tensions and stronger shekel
ISRAEL · In Brief · 22 May 2026

The Bank of Israel will announce its interest-rate decision on Monday. Financial markets are currently pricing in around a 60% probability of a rate cut. The case for a rate cut is evident and is supported by the relatively moderate inflation environment (1.9% y-o-y, with core inflation at 1.5%),...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: London trip notes
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 22 May 2026

I visited clients in London this week to discuss Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, and I briefly summarize my impressions in this report. Countries can be most usefully arranged in three distinctive groups depending on client interest. Most attention was devoted...

A fraught atmosphere
ECUADOR · Report · 21 May 2026

Since November 2023, President Daniel Noboa has made twenty changes in his ministerial cabinet. The Ministry of the Interior and the Ministry of Health have been the areas of greater rotation, at six ministers each. Immediately after his defeat last November in the public referendum, Noboa change...

Trump-Xi summit hides China’s structural weakness
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 21 May 2026

The big relief is nothing bad happened at the Xi and Trump summit May 14 and 15 in Beijing. However, Xi did appear the victor. He made modest but not large commitments to purchase U.S. goods. Trump failed to declare U.S. support for Taiwan, and the president’s overall behavior toward Xi was highl...

Tisza has taken over in a normal way, with no disruptions
HUNGARY · Report · 21 May 2026

Tisza had set up its government cabinet and taken over the administration by early May, which represents record high speed historically. No extraordinary events or disruptions occurred, despite earlier widespread fears that Fidesz could hesitate to transfer power. However, Tisza’s takeover has...

Lula takes the lead in latest poll, the Senate received the report on the PEC that expands the autonomy of the Central Bank, and the debate over the 6x1 work schedule continues
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 May 2026

Another Vox poll on the presidential election was released yesterday. Lula leads both the first- and second-round simulations. In the first round, the president posts 41.5%, while Flavio Bolsonaro has 31.1%. Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) stands at 5.9% and Romeu Zema (Novo) at 4.1%. Yesterday, the Constit...

The Trump-Xi summit did nothing except create breathing space
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 21 May 2026

Special points to highlight in this report: - The Trump-Xi summit last week accomplished nothing substantial except possibly to allow each side an extra 2-3 years in resolving its domestic problems. But because problems in the US economy require the opposite solutions to problems in the Chine...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 21 May 2026

May 8 National Railways: Kazakhstan Temir Zholy (National Railways) plans to place three issues of CNY-denominated bonds totaling CNY 1.79 bln. National gas company: QazaqGaz placed 10Y Eurobonds worth $700 mln at 5.625%. May 11 Turkey: The Turkish President, Mr. Erdogan, will visit Kazakhstan on...

Outlook for the Gulf after 12 weeks of war - Webinar replay and slide presentation
GULF COUNTRIES · Presentation · 20 May 2026

The GCC is experiencing perhaps the greatest crisis since its creation. Can the war's impact on credit continue to be mitigated? How is the war reshaping the GCC's geopolitics? What impact will the UAE's exit from OPEC have? Get insight into the economic impact to date, key risks and how ...

Flávio Bolsonaro visited Vorcaro when he was arrested, Lula continues to try to improve his approval ratings, and the report on the 6x1 work schedule should be submitted next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 May 2026

Yesterday, new information involving Senator Flavio Bolsonaro and former banker Daniel Vorcaro was made public. According to the news outlet Metrópoles, Flavio visited Vorcaro after the former banker’s arrest late last year. Meanwhile, Lula continues to announce measures aimed at improving his ap...

Kast on the Defensive
CHILE · In Brief · 20 May 2026

President José Antonio Kast entered office two months ago with a very clear remit: restore security and regain control of migration. He promised that after years of political volatility, Chile would get order. Perhaps even become boring. Yesterday’s departure of Security Minister Trinidad Steiner...

The first poll since Flávio Bolsonaro’s leaked audio recordings has been published, Lula will launch a program to help finance vehicles, and discussions on the 6x1 work schedule continue
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 May 2026

The first AtlasIntel presidential polling data since the release of audio recordings involving Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) and banker Daniel Vorcaro has just been released. Flávio Bolsonaro dropped six percentage points and now holds 41.8% of voter intentions against President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva...

Presidential run-off set for June 7; real GDP grew only 3.2% in March; fiscal risks balloon in 2026; inflation accelerates to 4%, but BCRP happy with policy pause
PERU · Report · 19 May 2026

We discuss three topics in this report. First, we evaluate the electoral process, and the start of the presidential run-off election between Keiko Fujimori (KF) and Roberto Sánchez (RS) set for June 7. Next, we focus on the economy, and find it has begun a mild deceleration. We made an above-cons...

Economics: Demand-side components (consumption and investment) are consistent with first-quarter GDP stagnation
MEXICO · Report · 19 May 2026

Mexico's economy entered 2026 on a weak footing, with first-quarter GDP virtually stagnant at 0.2% year-on-year growth. While the government has attributed the poor performance primarily to external factors, the data point to significant domestic demand weaknesses running alongside sectoral disru...

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