RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 08 Dec 2019

On December 4 Germany expelled two Russian diplomats. Germany suspects the diplomats assisted in the assassination of a Georgian citizen Zemilkhan Khangoshvili in Germany. A Russian has been charged with Khangoshvili's murder. Khangoshvili had been labeled a terrorist by Russia. Under Russian law...

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 08 Dec 2019

On December 6 the US announced that a US drone was shot down in Libya recently was destroyed by the Russian Army. This will raise tension between the United States and Russia. The US wants the wreckage back but the Russian Government denies all involvement and says it has no idea where the wrecka...

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 08 Dec 2019

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Aramco raised $25.6bn in its IPO, but foreign investors (mainly Gulf SWF) only provided $2bn. * Qatar’s Emir was invited to the Gulf Summit in Ri...

HUNGARY - In Brief 08 Dec 2019

The November CPI-infation data is expected on Tuesday, December 10. In essence, the yoy headline rate is set to rise significantly on a fuel-price-related base effect, but no policy reaction whatsoever is likely to come from the MNB.More specifically, we expect the yoy headline rate to jump to 3....

UKRAINE - In Brief 08 Dec 2019

An unexpectedly excellent news came yesterday from Ms. Kristalina Georgieva, the Managing Director of the IMF. The decision was apparently made after a telephone call with President Zelenskyi. Volodymyr Zelenskyi, most likely, told to the Managing Director something what the IMF mission did not h...

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 07 Dec 2019

On December 6 Russia agreed to reduce oil production in conjunction with OPEC . A meeting took place at Vienna. The 24 OPEC members produce 50% of the world's oil. Russia is not part of OPEC + and generally goes along with OPEC decisions. OPEC decided on a production reduction. The aim is to rais...

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 07 Dec 2019

On December 1 Putin signed a law that obliges all phones, computers etc... manufactured in Russia to have Russian made software and apps. This law was not made in concert with business. It takes effect July 1 2020. The apps to be pre-installed are not named.The Presidential Administration likely ...

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 07 Dec 2019

On December 2 the Ukrainian Parliament (Rada) voted to end the state monopoly on the production of liquor. This law was a hangover from the Soviet era. The law also provides for the total liberalization of alcohol exports.The state liquor company Ukrspirit is due to be privatized. It has 41 facto...

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - Report 06 Dec 2019

Real income suddenly surged by 3.3% y/y in Q3. We haven’t seen such high income growth rates in six years. High real income growth has only been seen in periods of robust economic growth, or during periods of public sector pension and social benefits indexation. Neither occurred in Q3 2019. So th...

COLOMBIA - Report 06 Dec 2019

The fate of the government’s tax reform proposal was, up until the beginning of the last week of November, a big unknown. It seems however, the worst part is over. During an infrastructure congress in Cartagena on November 21st, Finance Minister Alberto Carrasquilla spoke optimistically about...

CHINA ADVISORY - Report 06 Dec 2019

Three economists in July published a paper at the Kiehl Institute in Germany arguing that China’s international lending is understated by a significant margin. The authors, Carmen Reinhart, Sebastian Horn, and Christoph Trebesch, arrive at a figure of US$4.6 trillion, which includes holdings of s...

PHILIPPINES - In Brief 05 Dec 2019

On Tuesday, Manila’s business elites found themselves at the receiving end of President Duterte’s latest tirade. The cause? A ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in Singapore for government to pay Manila Water, one of the metropolis’s two water concessionaires, P7.39 billion (~$145 milli...

SOUTH AFRICA - Report 05 Dec 2019

Today the South African Reserve Bank released the latest current account data that shows the country’s current account deficit narrowed in the third quarter of 2019 - falling from R208.7 billion during the second quarter of 2019 to R190.3 billion in the third quarter, a narrowing of R18.3 billion...

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 05 Dec 2019

On December 2 the first gas flowed through the Power of Siberia Pipeline. This supplies LNG from Russia to China. The 3 000 km long pipeline is operated by Gazprom the Russian State gas company. The China National Petroleum Corporation is the partner on the Chinese side. In 2014 the two countries...

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 05 Dec 2019

On December 5 Russia kicked out a Bulgarian diplomat in reprisal for Bulgaria refusing a visa to a Russian defense attache. In October Bulgaria expelled a Russian diplomat for 'activities incompatible with diplomatic status' which is a euphemism for spying. Russia is Bulgaria's main energy suppli...