Country Insights

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Kuczynski likely to be ousted
PERU - In Brief 21 Mar 2018
Yesterday's revelations of attempts to change votes to avoid the president's impeachment on the part of dissident members of the Fuerza Popular party has all but decided that he will be ousted tomorrow. During a press conference, the spokesman for Fuerza Popular...

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Presidential succession: Context and perspectives
MEXICO - Presentation 21 Mar 2018
The presidential election will take place in the context of a political crisis, with government approval at historic lows. The results of the election remain uncertain, and risks remain high.

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More positive economic metrics out of South Africa as the deficit on the current account narrows to 2.5% of GDP in 2017
SOUTH AFRICA - Report 20 Mar 2018
Following the notable widening in the seasonally adjusted and annualized trade surplus to R92 billion during the third quarter of 2017, the trade balance narrowed to (a still substantial) R74 billion in the last quarter of 2017 as reported by the SA Reserve Bank...

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Economics: No clear consensus on inflation
MEXICO - Report 20 Mar 2018
Inflation in Mexico has proven to be more stubborn this year than monetary authorities had earlier projected, and additional pressures are looming. Higher prices for LP gas, some produce, and certain goods have been especially apparent in recent inflation report...

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Politics: Security system struggles
MEXICO - Report 19 Mar 2018
The decision by Jalisco state and federal authorities to sequester all members of the Tlaquepaque police force and directly assume control over public security in the municipality was immediately viewed through a partisan lens in a state where the PRI governor h...

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The gubernatorial races and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 19 Mar 2018
On the economic agenda, we highlight the release of the GDP preview for January and the Central Bank’s decision on the benchmark interest rate. Former President Lula begins another caravan throughout the South region on March 19, closing in Curitiba (PR) on Marc...

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Putin 4.0: Any changes?
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - Report 19 Mar 2018
In the March 18, 2018 presidential election, Vladimir Putin scored a strong victory, with 76.69% of the vote and a 67.5% turnout, according to preliminary results. As expected, Communist P. Grudinin came second, with 11.77% of the vote. We see the strong vic...

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Can the expansion of consumption guarantee 3% GDP growth?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 19 Mar 2018
The growth of household consumption, spurred by monetary policy, has been the driving force behind the recovery. However, the previous quarter witnessed a substantial deceleration, and if one takes real retail sales as a bellwether of consumption (which, as reit...

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Rapid growth and moderate inflation
HUNGARY - Report 19 Mar 2018
The odds for the April parliamentary election have become slightly more even since a candidate supported by all opposition parties won against Fidesz in an interim local election held in late February. This event has increased the willingness of opposition parti...

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What are the signs regarding “true” growth in 2018?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 19 Mar 2018
Our projection for economic growth of 3% in 2018 implicitly rests on a significant acceleration of the quarterly GDP growth rates – from 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2017 to 1.1% per quarter this year. The latest data indicate that GDP only expanded by 0.5% in ...

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Ant Financial’s aggressive strategy
CHINA ADVISORY - Report 19 Mar 2018
Ant Financial operates through two businesses, Ant Credit Pay, which is a “virtual” credit card customers use to buy goods through Alibaba’s online platforms, and Ant Cash Now, which provides loans in cash issued directly to users who pay in installments with in...

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Early elections?
TURKEY - Report 18 Mar 2018
Early Sunday morning Turkish commandos entered the center of Afrin to join what we think will be a bloody urban warfare. Since we are not war correspondents, there is not much to write about Afrin, except expressing a hope for minimal casualties. Instead, we ...

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2018–2019 forecast: Hyperinflation, recession, and default
VENEZUELA - Forecast 14 Mar 2018 1 response
Our outlook for 2018–2019 has the economy crumbling and hyperinflation worsening under Maduro’s policies. GDP shrinks by a quarter over two years, and inflation easily reaches six digits by 2019. Real wages and interest rates plunge to unprecedented depths. Oil ...

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Mexico’s economy in 2018: Moderate deceleration alongside financial volatility
MEXICO - Presentation 14 Mar 2018
The year 2018 includes a growth slowdown, financial volatility and growing uncertainty into the election. Mexico faces three main economic risks, two of them since 2017...

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South Africa's credit rating on the mend
SOUTH AFRICA - In Brief 14 Mar 2018 1 response
Quarter One of 2018 has been a turning point for South Africa's political economy outlook. Despite all predictions to the contrary, Jacob Zuma is no longer the president, and the shift to President Ramaphosa has been relatively smooth. The cloud of desperation h...