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Country Insights

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Deflation and renewed closure likely to support further loosening
ISRAEL - In Brief 21 Sep 2020
Highlights of the Weekly Israel Macro Wrap Up 21.9.20 Inflation surprises on the downside Inflation remained stable m/m in August below market expectations of 0.2% m/m. Inflation in August declined to -0.8% y/y (from -0.6% in July). Core inflation move lower to -0.5% y/y (from -0.4% in July). Eig...

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A date with fate
TURKEY - Report 20 Sep 2020
Going deeply against the grain, we call only for minor sanctions from the EU at the upcoming Leaders’ Summit on September 26th, maintaining our view that short of a Biden Presidency, foreign policy shocks are very likely to be too mild, compared to the domestic political-cum-economic ones. Yet, w...

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Russia keeps interest rate steady
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 19 Sep 2020
On September 18 the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) decided not to cut the interest rate. There have been several successive cuts over the past two years. Inflation increased surprisingly on Q3 2020 and the RUB fell. These moves may have promoted the September 18 decision. The Governor of the CBR sa...

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Belarus strengthens borders
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 19 Sep 2020
On September 17 Lukashenka announced that borders with Poland, Lithuania and Latvia would be closed because of interference with Belarus' affairs. In fact this has not happened. However, the border has been strengthened. It is rumored that Lukashenka's favorite son Nikolai, 16, has been sent to s...

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Uzbek companies transferred
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 18 Sep 2020
On September 18 Ozodlik published an article saying that cabinet sources revealed that six major industrial and energy companies have been transferred to the trust of SFI Management Group. SFI Management Group is owned by Alisher Usmanov who is a Russian-Uzbek oligarch.Usmanov said that the compa...

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Unemployment lines at the INSS are challenging for the government
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 18 Sep 2020
The increase in unemployment lines and the accumulation of lawsuits at the National Institute of Social Security (INSS), a consequence of specialty doctors who refuse to return to in-person work, are putting pressure on the government in the social arena. Today, the Institute of Brazilian Geograp...

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The Russian economy in August: slow recovery continues
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 18 Sep 2020
Rosstat reported that in August, the economic recovery continued across the board, albeit slowly. Most of the indicators looked better y-o-y than in July, especially taking into account that this year August had fewer working days than a year ago. Some previous data have been revised up slightly,...

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Russia approves coronavirus drugs for sale
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 18 Sep 2020
Two Russian manufactured coronavirus drugs have been licensed for sale in drug stores on September 17. Both of them are version of favirpirvir which was originally an anti-flu medicine invented in Japan. The drugs are in pill form. Trials prove that recovery times are speedy. India and China have...

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​GULF WEEKLY: Bahrain normalizes, US upgrades Qatar alliance, Libya to restart oil
GULF COUNTRIES - Report 18 Sep 2020 1 response
A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Bahrain and UAE signed normalization agreements with Israel in Washington. * We do not expect any other Gulf states to follow imminently, for differing reasons. * Coronav...

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The virus has returned for a second wave
HUNGARY - Report 18 Sep 2020
Following the European trend, Covid-19 cases have picked up sharply since late August. Much of this can be blamed on increased virus testing, but that cannot explain a great part of the problem. Indeed, the hit ratio of testing has risen back to the record levels seen in Q2 and continues to rise....

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A self-made perfect storm
ARGENTINA - Report 18 Sep 2020
​A climate of dialogue and cooperation among the main political forces in March allowed the harnessing of support from a large majority of the population, to implement lockdowns that helped dampen the pace of infections and deaths. This early action allowed time to reinforce the health care syst...

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Costa Rica: An ambitious fiscal proposal
CENTRAL AMERICA - Report 18 Sep 2020
The government announced an ambitious proposal to achieve an extended facility agreement with the IMF in order to bring back the debt to a sustainable path. The proposal, which includes the effects of the fiscal reform approved in December 2018, consists of a mix of temporary and permanent action...

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DR launched sovereign bonds
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - In Brief 17 Sep 2020
The Dominican Republic has just launched sovereign bonds equivalent to USD3.8 bn. The total amount is distributed in: 1) USD1.8 bn corresponding to 12-year bonds to yield 4.875%; 2) USD1.7 bn corresponding to bonds maturing in 2060 to yield 6.250%; and 3)DOP17.5 bn, equivalent to USD300 correspon...

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The South African Reserve Bank leaves interest rates unchanged for the first time in 2020
SOUTH AFRICA - Report 17 Sep 2020
Following consecutive interest rate cuts during each meeting since the beginning of 2020 (including during a previously unscheduled meeting in April), the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left the repo rate unchanged today at 3.5%. The last cut in the benchmark ...

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Belarus’s future outlook
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - Report 17 Sep 2020
On August 9 a presidential election was held in Belarus. The Electoral Commission declared that President Lukashenka had won his sixth consecutive election with 80% of the vote. The president has been in office since 1994. The 66-year-old has no intention of resigning. Although Lukashenka is u...