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GULF WEEKLY: Oil rises on US-Iran tensions, UAE GDP growth accelerates, Kuwait returns to FATF grey list
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 20 Feb 2026

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude touched $72, a 7-month high, as concerns grow about a potential US-Iran war. * There was “good progress” in Omani-mediated nuclear talks, but the US military buildup continues. * Saudi-UAE tensions persist and...

Russian macro: bumpy road behind, sticky road ahead
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Feb 2026

Rosstat has just released its initial GDP growth estimate for 2025, alongside major revisions to the 2024 figures. It now shows that GDP grew by 4.9% in 2024, up from the previously reported 4.3%, with the first estimate even lower, at 4.1%. So far, only the annual national accounts for 2025 and ...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: The debt implications of upgrading Armenia's nuclear industry
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 20 Feb 2026

Armenia and USA signed this month a joint statement of cooperation on the peaceful use of nuclear energy. The government and newswires have hurried to conclude that the USA would provide US$9bn as part of the deal, which ultimately results in constructing a small modular (nuclear) reactor (SMR). ...

Israel geopolitics and macro - outlook for the week ahead
ISRAEL · In Brief · 20 Feb 2026

Rising war tensions with Iran pressure markets as Gaza peace plan begins to take shape This week was marked by rising tensions with Iran, which translated into growing nervousness in financial markets, ahead of next week’s interest rate decision. Reports of a possible U.S. strike and increased mi...

Peru in 2026: Political risks, elections, and economics - Slide presentation and webinar replay
PERU · Presentation · 19 Feb 2026

What should we anticipate in the aftermath of Congress electing a new Speaker, who will become the next president? What will be the impact of the upcoming elections on April 12? Is the central bank's FX intervention effective? What are the side effects? What is Peru's economic forecast for 2026?...

Kazakhstan Macro: January 2026 statistics look underwhelming, as economic growth in 2025 may have been overstated
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 19 Feb 2026

The Bureau of National Statistics has released its preliminary 2025 quarterly GDP figures, and as usual, only y-o-y growth rates for cumulative periods within the year are available. As we have mentioned before, the initially published numbers have never been revised in the past, so the reported ...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 19 Feb 2026

The CBR caught the market off guard. Most investors expected that the early-year inflation spike would push the regulator to stay cautious and leave rates unchanged in February. Instead, the CBR cut the rate by 50 bps to 15.5%, made dovish remarks, and expressed growing confidence in future cuts....

Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments – Weekly report, February 18, 2026
ISRAEL · Report · 18 Feb 2026

Israel’s economy continues the transition from a war economy to a more post-war period with a moderate growth phase. While activity remains expansionary, momentum is easing, and growth is increasingly export-led, with domestic demand still relatively weak. Geopolitical developments remain a key s...

All eyes are on the election now
HUNGARY · Report · 18 Feb 2026

European gas prices normalized once the roughly three-week period of extraordinary cold weather in January ended. The EU eventually approved its planned diversification away from Russian gas imports, but that did not have any significant market impact, suggesting the availability of sufficient su...

RP–China dispute on the West Philippine Sea: the fourth crack between Marcos and Duterte
PHILIPPINES · Report · 18 Feb 2026

The collapse of the UniTeam alliance between President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Vice President Sara Duterte has unfolded through a series of political fractures — from disagreements over international legal cooperation, to constitutional reform maneuvering, to impeachment battles. Yet these earli...

Inflation under guardianship
VENEZUELA · Report · 18 Feb 2026

Inflation rebounded to 32 percent in January 2026 amid sharp forex volatility, reflecting the market rate surge in the first two weeks of the month. On January 7, the forex gap peaked at 179 percent before closing the month at 39 percent on announcements that outlined a more favorable outlook for...

Economics: Annual core inflation rose in January; it will most likely remain above 4% in 2026
MEXICO · Report · 17 Feb 2026

Consumer inflation stood at 3.79% annually in January 2026, 10 basis points above December 2025 (3.69%) and very similar to the 2025 average, in a clear sign that it is not on a downward trend. The annual increase in prices in January was caused by the core component (as has been the case in rece...

Monetary policy and the fiscal rule under strain
CHILE · Report · 17 Feb 2026

Activity continues sluggish. We therefore maintain our near-term interpretation of stable growth at close to potential, with a modest upside bias from improved sentiment. Business sentiment improved sharply in January 2026. But hard data released at the end of 2025 reinforces our cautious view. I...

Essential CIS Politics: February 1 - February 17, 2026
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 17 Feb 2026

Russia presents US with a USD 12 trillion economic plan. Putin creates an intelligence agency under Rosgvardia, his “personal army”. Zelensky promises elections in exchange for a ceasefire. Russia will ship oil to Cuba, defying a US blockade. Kazakhstan will hold a...

Despite its long-term significance, last week’s passing of the labor reform bill by the Senate failed to impress the market
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 17 Feb 2026

Summary On Thursday of last week, the Senate approved President Milei’s labor reform bill, officially known as Ley de Modernización Laboral, after a marathon debate with 42 votes in favor and 30 against. The approval came amid significant protests outside Congress, where unions and workers clashe...

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