GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

The persistence of high interest rates has led to proposals to raise Brazil’s inflation target, currently set at 3%. It is argued that, due to inflation inertia, still a legacy of the hyperinflationary period, the Central Bank faces difficulties in reducing the Selic rate. This idea is mistaken. ...

Peru: Fujimori to become the next president

PERU · In Brief · 09 Jun 2026

We are the final leg of Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales (ONPE, the office responsible for organizing the election) vote counting and the odds of Keiko Fujimori becoming the next president has increased. At the time we are sending this InBrief, she was trailing behind Roberto Sánchez by 2...

South Africa records its sixth consecutive quarterly growth in Q1-2026

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 09 Jun 2026

Real quarterly GDP increased by 0.5% q/q in the first quarter of 2026, following an expansion of 0.4% q/q during the fourth quarter of 2025. This, meanwhile, represents the sixth consecutive positive quarterly growth rate. The latest GDP print indicates that the South African economy maintained i...

Another turn in the war: disrupted Russian frontline logistics and blockade of the land corridor to occupied Crimea

UKRAINE · Report · 09 Jun 2026

The war has taken another turn, and this time clearly in Ukraine's favor. Ukrainian forces have expanded their medium-range drone strike capabilities to the point where this instrument of war is now affecting the battlefield strategically. By May, it was unmistakable that Ukrainian forces had in ...

Alcolumbre will meet with party leaders today to discuss the 6x1 PEC, the House may vote on the fuel tax exemptions bill, and the TSE will discuss whether an AtlasIntel poll violated Brazil’s electoral legislation

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Jun 2026

Today’s main focus is the meeting between Senate President Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP) and party leaders to discuss the procedure for the constitutional amendment proposal (PEC) that would end Brazil’s 6x1 work schedule. The issue is considered a priority for the government. A meeting of Lower Hou...

Elections and outlook for next administration - Webinar replay

PERU · Report · 09 Jun 2026

Watch the replay of our webinar featuring Alfredo Thorne discussing what the election results mean for Peru's outlook, the next administration's priorities, and the challenges that will face it

Economics: Mexican automotive sector faces high uncertainty ahead of USMCA renegotiation process

MEXICO · Report · 09 Jun 2026

The first formal round of negotiations for the USMCA review took place on May 28 and 29 in Mexico City. According to various official statements and declarations, a significant portion of the agenda focused on automotive sector rules of origin and the current tariff applied to non-U.S. content in...

Theft and waste of public money: another source of fiscal adjustment

HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Jun 2026

The following story is published here to demonstrate that EU money is not the only, and perhaps not even the main, possible source of fiscal adjustment in Hungary, and to contribute to the explanation of why the Tisza government is not starting its operation by raising taxes and/or reducing spend...

Mindanao Earthquake: A Humanitarian Crisis and a Test of Governance

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 09 Jun 2026

Every year, the Philippines confronts major natural disasters, from typhoons and floods to volcanic eruptions and earthquakes. Yet 2026 has proven particularly devastating. On the morning of June 8, a powerful magnitude 7.8 earthquake struck offshore near Sarangani Province, making it one of the ...

Consequences of the new tariffs on the presidential race and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Jun 2026

Senate President Davi Alcolumbre is expected to meet with party leaders to discuss the legislative path of the proposal to end Brazil’s 6x1 work schedule. The Senate’s Economic Affairs Committee is set to review the constitutional amendment granting financial autonomy to the Central Bank. A new G...

Politics: The Mexico-U.S. relations crisis and its implications for governance

MEXICO · Report · 08 Jun 2026

President Sheinbaum has chosen confrontation over cooperation, refusing U.S. extradition requests for ten Sinaloa officials — including a sitting governor, senator, and mayor — and framing her decision as a defense of national sovereignty. Her position, reinforced by AMLO's public backing, refra...

Weekly report, June 8, 2026: Bank of Israel signals faster rate cuts, shekel reverses course, elections likely in October, Iran-Israel tensions escalate again

ISRAEL · Report · 08 Jun 2026

Key developments and outlook: - The war between Iran and Israel resumed following an Iranian attack on northern Israel and an Israeli response targeting sites in Iran. The United States is attempting to contain the conflict in order to preserve momentum in the negotiations with Iran. - Isra...

Of mountains and mice

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Jun 2026

A new round of U.S. tariffs on Brazilian products, if implemented, should have only a modest macroeconomic effect. We estimate that the measures would reduce Brazilian exports by between US$0.8 billion and US$2.8 billion, a small amount compared with the approximately US$360 billion exported annu...

Alcolumbre should meet this week with party leaders to discuss the 6x1 PEC, the House may vote this week on the fuel tax exemptions bill, and the STF should continue the trial on the Civil Rights Framework for the Internet

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Jun 2026

A meeting is expected this week between Senate President Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP) and party leaders to discuss the legislative path of the constitutional amendment proposal (PEC) that would end Brazil’s 6x1 work schedule. The Lower House is expected to attempt a vote this week on Complementary ...

Armenian election results take an odd turn

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 08 Jun 2026

In a rather odd development, the Central Election Commission announced changes in the results previously reported on its website. Trying to explain the changes would only spoil interpretation, so I take the liberty of simply citing CEC Chairman verbatim: "You have all seen the figures published o...