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Poland may give up its veto on the EU budget, leaving Hungary alone...
HUNGARY - In Brief 03 Dec 2020
...in which case it would be terribly difficult for PM Orbán to maintain the Hungarian veto. Sorry to say, but Hungary is just too small in itself to be important enough to efficiently block such a big project as the 7-year EU budget and the recovery package attached to it.The news comes from Jar...

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Russia’s pandemic-political update: home alone
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - Report 03 Dec 2020
Russia’s epidemiological situation continued to evolve In November in line with previous trends, such as the continuously growing number of new cases per day. What has changed, however, was the fact that the number of people discharged due to recovery grew steadily as well, so that the growth rat...

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Moscow to start vaccination on December 5
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 03 Dec 2020
On December 3 the Mayor of Moscow announced that the vaccination of high risk groups will commence this weekend. The president ordered Sputnik V vaccine to be rolled out across the federation as soon as practicable. Medical staff, teachers, police officers and other frontline public sector worker...

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Ukraine backed by Turkey on Crimea
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 03 Dec 2020
On December 2 the Turkish Foreign Minister said that it agrees that Crimea pertains to Ukraine. The minister said that Turkey would enhance its military relationship with Ukraine. Russia gained control over the Crimean Peninsula in 2014. Only a handful of countries recognize Crimea as Russian.Tur...

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A bad political accident at a critical time; rating agencies are cautious for the time being
HUNGARY - In Brief 03 Dec 2020
Our title for today's note refers to two separate stories, which are closely linked together, though, by the fact that both are relevant in the context of the ongoing EU budget debate culminating just in these days.The first one is about a bad political accident hitting the governing Fidesz party...

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After today’s print, CBRT falls further behind
TURKEY - Report 03 Dec 2020
CPI inflation surprised on the upside by a wide margin in November, coming in at 2.3%, m/m, markedly higher than the market consensus of around 1% (and our slightly higher expectation). Twelve-month CPI inflation rose sharply to 14%, as a result, which is the highest level since September 2019, f...

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​Unemployment rate at 8.7%
PHILIPPINES - In Brief 03 Dec 2020
The statistics bureau today published the October round of its Labor Force Survey showing unemployment rate at 8.7% which compares favorably with July’s 10%. However, delving into the numbers behind the headline rate, we find: The lower unemployment rate was due more to reduced labor force partic...

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Russian oil production was slighly up in November, ahead of OPEC+ meeting; gas production was down to lower European demand
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - In Brief 02 Dec 2020
According to the most recent CDU TEK data, Russian oil production (including gas condensate) was 10 mbd. Oil production slightly inched compared to October 2020 levels (+0.3% m-o-m) was lower 1.3 mbd in than year ago or -11% compared to March 2020.Chart 1. Russian oil production (including gas co...

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Aggregate output in 9M20 contracts moderately, inflation accelerates in November but the peak is near
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 02 Dec 2020
Rosstat reported that weekly inflation during the period ending on November 30 slowed and was at 0.1% (in previous weeks of November it remained at 0.2% w-o-w). It means that monthly inflation was around 0.7% that could have brought annual inflation to 4.4-4.5%. Note that weekly inflation numbers...

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Flattening the fear
PHILIPPINES - Forecast 02 Dec 2020
It is now almost nine months since the Philippines first went into lockdown in response to the Covid-19 pandemic. The resulting economic recession, with GDP expected to contract by 9.5% this year, is proving much more fearsome beyond the continuing health problem. Early hopes of a quick rebound i...

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​Fakhrizadeh killing could speed lifting of sanctions if Iran shows restraint
GULF COUNTRIES - Report 02 Dec 2020
If Iran maintains strategic patience in responding to the killing of its nuclear scientist, despite pressure from hardliners in parliament, the incident should actually increase the urgency of the Biden Administration in quickly restoring the JCPOA, our baseline scenario. However, if there are fu...

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Japan angry at Russian missiles in Kuril Islands
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 02 Dec 2020
On December 2 Tokyo denounced the stationing of S-300 surface to air missiles on islands claimed by Japan but owned by Russia. Moscow announced that the air defense system was on the island on Iturup.Japan lost the islands to the USSR in 1945. Tokyo has always spoken out against Russian military ...

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A Merry Christmas for Russia's billionaires
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 02 Dec 2020
On December 1 Bloomberg revealed that Russian billionaires have gained USD 468 million to their fortunes in 2020. The stock market rally in November really helped this.Of the 22 richest people in Russia: 16 of them gained a total of USD 14 billion and 6 lost a total of USD 13.6 billion. Suleiman ...

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Incoming President of Moldova calls for Russian troops to leave
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 01 Dec 2020
On November 30 Maia Sandu said that Russian troops should leave Transdnistria. Transdnistria is a region of Moldova that broke away in 1991. Russian troops have been there ever since. Moscow says that they are peacekeepers. Moldova says that they are occupiers. Sandu wants unarmed European observ...

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Inflation: warning signs that should be monitored
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 01 Dec 2020
Inflation accelerated at the start of the second half, first led by the rise of food prices, but now the process is more disseminated. The depreciation of the exchange rate, which in 2020 has amounted to a bit over 30%, is the main culprit for this increase of prices, and the depreciation in turn...