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GULF WEEKLY: Oman upgraded, rates cut, SABIC quits Duqm project, STC advances in Yemen
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 12 Dec 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The GCC mirrored the US -25bp cut; policy rates now range from 3.5% (Kuwait) to 4.5% (Bahrain). * Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi are pitching in $25bn to Paramount’s bid for Warner Bros. * Saudi non-oil GDP growth of 4...

Motta has been criticized for not terminating the mandates of some representatives, the Sentencing bill may be put to a vote, and next week is the last week of legislative activity before the recess
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Dec 2025

The President of the Lower House, Hugo Motta (Republicanos–PB), has come under criticism from both allies and opposition lawmakers over how the proceedings involving the possible removal of mandates have been handled. Next week will be marked by intense political negotiations in Brasília. It will...

Upcoming webinar - Chile election briefing: The next administration
CHILE · Report · 12 Dec 2025

Date: 15 Dec 2025 Time: 10:00 AM Eastern Time After the election of Chile's next president, what do the results reveal about the electorate? Which goals will the incoming administration prioritize? What challenges are ahead for the president-elect? Join us for the final installment of our ...

2026 CCA Outlook: The spotlight sharpens—and it lands on Yerevan
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Forecast · 12 Dec 2025

Without a doubt, the key political economy event in the Caucasus and Central Asia next year is the upcoming Parliamentary vote in Armenia next Jun. The elections are, of course, interesting not only for the academics and analytics of them, but also for their geo-economic and geopolitical implica...

Budget revenues under pressure as the ruble remains too strong
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Dec 2025

The Ministry of Finance announced that in 11M25, total federal budget revenues hit R32.9 trln, up 0.7% y-o-y. Oil and gas revenues dropped 22.4% to just R8.0 trln, while non-O&G revenues rose 11.3% to R24.9 trln. The government had initially forecast R10.9 trln in O&G revenues for the year but no...

NBU still holds rate at 15.5% with devaluation in focus
UKRAINE · In Brief · 12 Dec 2025

Despite easing consumer inflation, the NBU Board again left the prime rate unchanged at 15.5%, for the sixth time in a row. The NBU states explicitly that the stability of the national currency and the attractiveness of hryvnia-denominated financial instruments remain its priorities. In November,...

Economic blockade instead of invasion?
VENEZUELA · Report · 12 Dec 2025

The seizure of the sanctioned tanker Skipper heralds the possibility of a military-backed economic blockade aimed at achieving regime change in Venezuela through economic suffocation rather than military intervention. According to various sources, the Skipper was carrying 1.1 million barrels o...

Webinar replay - Latin America in 2026: Inflation, policy and politics in a shifting global landscape
COLOMBIA · Report · 12 Dec 2025

Going into 2026, what is the economic outlook for the key Latin American economies of Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico? How will the persistence of above-target inflation in the region be addressed? What is ahead for monetary policy and central banks? Is LatAm positioned well for a reve...

The Trillion Peso March: mass action, political maneuvering, and the imperative of evidence-based unity
PHILIPPINES · Report · 12 Dec 2025

The Philippines is experiencing a surge of public mobilization against corruption, especially over alleged irregularities in flood control projects. While many rallies have focused on institutional reform and evidence-based accountability, a recent event pushing for President Marcos’s resignation...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 11 Dec 2025

Nov 27 National pipeline company: KazTransOil net profit (IFRS) increased by 24% y-o-y in 9M25. Nov 28 NBK: The Bank left the base rate unchanged at 18%. NBK: The Bank has no intentions to reduce the base rate until the end of 1H26. NBK: The Bank has revised the forecast of economic growth in Kaz...

Turning point or tightening?
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 11 Dec 2025

Venezuela is entering a new cycle of high macroeconomic uncertainty, caught between increasingly tight sanctions and narrowing room for policy maneuver. This report projects economic performance for 2025–2027 under the assumption that the current sanctions regime will remain in place, while recog...

President Viktor Orbán?
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Dec 2025

It looks like the forint market did not like today's Bloomberg article about PM Orbán's possible attempt to strengthen the currently pretty much powerless position of the President of the Republic, planning to take over that position before the election. We think that the presentation of the news...

Justice Gilmar partially reversed his decision on the impeachment law, the Senate approved the proposal reducing the work week, and the Senate also approved the Anti-Gang bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Dec 2025

Supreme Federal Court (STF) Justice Gilmar Mendes decided yesterday to partially reverse his own injunction that had suspended portions of the law governing the impeachment of public officials. Yesterday, the Senate’s Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ) approved a proposed constitutional ame...

Copy & paste
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Dec 2025

BCB’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) kept, as widely expected, the target for the benchmark Selic rate at 15% per year, but the policy rate was not the only element that remained unchanged after the meeting. The statement released immediately after the decision—which anticipates some of the...

Aggressive cut, fuzzy statement
TURKEY · Report · 11 Dec 2025 · 1 response

The CBRT/MPC cut the policy rate by 150 bps to 38% at the last meeting of the year (see chart). While the move is sort of “in line with expectations”, it is probably fair to say that it certainly is “deeper than hoped for” by a good majority of analysts, including this author. Put differently, th...

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