GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

GDP decelerated sharply in H2 2025, and this weakness extended into early 2026. Growth would need to gain significant momentum in the coming months to reach an average of 2% for 2026. In addition to weak data for the first months of the year, the economy is facing a negative income shock from hig...

Tisza won with an extraordinarily strong mandate

HUNGARY · Forecast · 29 Apr 2026

The opposition Tisza party, founded only two years ago, achieved a sweeping victory at the regular parliamentary election held early this month. Actually, it won the strongest mandate seen since the fall of communism in 1990. Tisza now has a comfortable two-thirds supermajority, meaning it can am...

Motta announced the rapporteur of the special committee on the 6x1 work schedule, the CCJ will hold a confirmation hearing today for Messias, and the Central Bank will decide on the benchmark interest rate (Selic)

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Apr 2026

The President of the Lower House, Hugo Motta (Republicanos–PB), announced yesterday that Federal Deputy Leo Prates (Republicanos–BA) will serve as rapporteur of the special committee reviewing the proposed constitutional amendment (PEC) that would end the 6x1 work schedule. The Senate’s Constitut...

Surprisingly resilient

CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Apr 2026

El Salvador’s 2025 economic performance was better than expected, given global economic and geopolitical turbulence. The growth engines were both private and public investment, reflected in the extraordinary construction boom, and in foreign remittances that soared by almost 18% y/y. We also expe...

The base rate remains unchanged, the tenge strengthens more

KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 28 Apr 2026

On April 24, the National Bank of Kazakhstan decided to keep the base rate unchanged at 18% despite inflation decelerating in March. It fell y-o-y to 11.0% and m-o-m to 0.6% (from 11.7% and 1.7% in February). Commenting on the decision, the NBK Chairman praised the consistency of monetary policy ...

Governor Varga did not appear to be pushing for a stronger forint at today's press conference

HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Apr 2026

The Monetary Council held the base rate unchanged at 6.25% today. The Council discussed only the 'hold' proposal, and the vote was unanimous. This was not at all surprising; the more interesting part of the day was Governor Varga's press conference.There will likely be different interpretations o...

Durigan said lower interest rates should be offered to combat household debt, he also highlighted tighter restrictions on betting activities, and the Nexus/BTG poll shows that the presidential race remains polarized

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Apr 2026

Following a meeting with CEOs of financial institutions yesterday, April 27, Finance Minister Dario Durigan said there is a consensus between the ministry and banks to offer lower interest rates under the new program to combat household debt. He projected discounts of up to 90% across categories ...

Change in their own terms

VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Apr 2026

After nearly four months in office, the Rodríguez group has brought gain: stability in the immediate political environment, legal reforms to reshape the business climate for the oil and mining sectors, and progress toward a consensus on labor reform. These gains coexist, however, with persistent ...

Stable disequilibrium

ARGENTINA · Report · 28 Apr 2026

I see Argentina's macroeconomy as trapped in a state of internal and external disequilibrium. On one hand, the output gap is negative, meaning that GDP is running below potential, On the other, the central bank is having trouble accumulating reserves at a high enough speed to convince internatio...

Economics: As inflation persists, expanded price controls loom as a threat

MEXICO · Report · 27 Apr 2026

The overall inflation rate for the first half of April (4.53%) was virtually unchanged from March (4.55%), while core inflation declined by 0.17 percentage points, falling from 4.44% to 4.27%. Although both indicators show a modest reduction, it is worth highlighting that core inflation has been...

Zema gains visibility in clash with Mendes and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Apr 2026

President Lula is expected to deliver a nationwide radio and TV address for Labor Day. There is a possibility of announcing credit-related measures. The Senate will review the nomination of Jorge Messias to the Supreme Federal Court on Wednesday. The Lower House will establish a Special Committee...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Apr 2026

With survival and the October election on the radar, political actors anxiously await the outcome of the plea bargain of Daniel Vorcaro & Cia. If accepted by the Federal Police, Federal Prosecutor’s Office and Supreme Federal Court, it may trigger an earthquake with potential to affect the lives ...

No change in the MNB base rate is expected from tomorrow's monthly rate-setting meeting

HUNGARY · In Brief · 27 Apr 2026

Portfolio.hu, the economic news site that regularly surveys analyst views, is saying that analysts typically do not expect a change in the MNB's 6.25% base rate at the monetary Council's monthly meeting tomorrow. They also added that the majority of the analysts they asked think that a further fo...

The Senate will hold the confirmation hearing for STF nominee Messias on Wednesday, a special committee will be established tomorrow on the 6x1 work schedule, and Friday is a federal holiday

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Apr 2026

The Senate’s Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ) will hold a confirmation hearing on Wednesday, April 29, for Attorney General Jorge Messias, who has been nominated to the Supreme Federal Court (STF). To be approved, Messias must secure a majority vote in the 27-member CCJ. A special committ...

Politics: Changes in Morena and the INE imply costs for the future of Mexican democracy

MEXICO · Report · 27 Apr 2026

Recent weeks have brought significant political changes in Mexico that carry far-reaching implications for both democratic governance and electoral competition. Within Morena, President Claudia Sheinbaum has orchestrated a leadership reshuffle that effectively tightens her grip on the ruling part...