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The USTR proposed imposing a 25% tariff on all imports from Brazil, Alcolumbre should meet with party leaders to discuss the 6x1 proposal, and São Paulo’s Civil Police launched an investigation into a suspected scheme
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Jun 2026

Yesterday evening, the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) proposed imposing a 25% tariff on all imports from Brazil, except for goods classified as being subject to "national security tariffs". According to the document released late at night, the measure is justified by a series of actions, polici...

Upcoming webinar: Armenia elections - outlook and implications
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 02 Jun 2026

Date: 3 Jun 2026 | Time: 10:00 AM EDT Can Nikol Pashinyan retain power after the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh? Can the opposition unite behind a single credible challenger? Could Armenia face another period of instability if the result is disputed? Join us for our live Zoom webinar featuring Globa...

Kast’s State of the Union: Fiscal Stress
CHILE · In Brief · 02 Jun 2026

Three months into office, President José Antonio Kast’s first June 1 “State of the Union” should have been a victory lap. Instead, it was an attempt to reset the government’s political narrative. The speech clarified the administration’s priorities on security, fiscal correction, and growth. It a...

High-tech sector continues to drive shekel strength and economic growth
ISRAEL · In Brief · 01 Jun 2026

If we seek to understand the sources of the substantial foreign-currency inflows into Israel and the factors underlying the exceptional appreciation of the shekel, the recently published data on high-tech services exports and capital raised by Israeli start-up companies provide an important part ...

Economics: Data published during May confirm the economy remains weak, with higher risks ahead
MEXICO · Report · 01 Jun 2026

Economic indicators published in May reflect a Mexican economy cooling in the first quarter of the year, weighed down by weakness in domestic demand. The economy entered 2026 on a weak footing, with GDP growth virtually flat at 0.2% YoY in the first quarter, suffering from contractions in the pr...

Lula's electoral strategy and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Jun 2026

Congress is expected to have a light schedule this week due to the Corpus Christi holiday. On Friday, the United States' designation of the Comando Vermelho (CV) and Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) as terrorist organizations officially takes effect. President Lula will convene his cabinet on We...

'Fidesz-puppets' to be sacked in about a month, PM Magyar claims
HUNGARY · In Brief · 01 Jun 2026

On May 31, the deadline set by PM Magyar for eight constitutionally independent top public officials to step down voluntarily expired. They include the President of the Republic, the Prosecutor General and the heads of the Constitutional Court, the Supreme Court, the National Bureau for the Judic...

Peru: Keiko Fujimori keeps the lead in the runoff
PERU · In Brief · 01 Jun 2026 · 1 response

Yesterday was the last day for publishing opinion polls on the runoff between Keiko Fujimori (KF) from Fuerza Popular, and Roberto Sánchez (RS) from Juntos por el Perú, due on Sunday June 7th. In addition, last night was the last debate between the two candidates.  Three polls were published on S...

Politics: The quality of public services is in clear decline according to an INEGI survey
MEXICO · Report · 01 Jun 2026

Mexico's municipal governments are failing to deliver the basic public services their citizens need. Satisfaction rates remain below 52% for all services except garbage collection, and have fallen further between 2023 and 2025. Roads and streets are the worst-performing services — fewer than 30% ...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Jun 2026

Weak governments, captured by group interests and incapable of confronting financial innovations — such as cryptocurrencies and fintechs — with proper regulation, have fostered the widespread growth of organized crime in Brazil and Latin America. The new phase, initiated after the “blackout” in p...

Essential CIS Politics: May 16 - June 1, 2026
CIS POLITICS · Report · 01 Jun 2026

Major headlines: - The EU continues to inch closer to diplomatic engagement with Russia, publicly discussing appointing a special envoy to this end. - Formal peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine remain seemingly stalled, with no publicly announced negotiations held. Russi...

Moving forward without certainty
VENEZUELA · Report · 01 Jun 2026

The Delcy Rodríguez government is moving ahead with calculated pragmatism: freeing prisoners, reopening public space, and attracting oil investment, while keeping the instruments of political control intact—the Attorney General’s Office, the courts, and the repressive legal framework—and favoring...

South Africa’s economic outlook: resilience amid rising global uncertainty
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 01 Jun 2026

South African growth: South Africa’s economic growth in 2025 accelerated from 2024’s anemic growth. However, relative to forecasts at the start of 2025, GDP growth still surprised on the downside—once again. The South African National Treasury had forecast 2025 GDP to expand by 1.4% during Budget...

Stagnation in the first quarter
TURKEY · Report · 01 Jun 2026

The Turkish economy grew by 2.5%, y/y, in the first quarter of 2026, lower than market expectations (2.7%) and the 3.4% growth recorded in the previous quarter. Sequentially, i.e., on a quarter-on-quarter basis, growth continued to lose momentum visibly, barely moving in the quarter (0.13%, q/q),...

The federal holiday on Thursday will reduce activity in Congress, the Senate President will meet with party leaders to discuss the voting schedule for the 6x1 PEC, and Lula will hold a cabinet meeting on Wednesday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Jun 2026

Congress will operate on a reduced schedule this week due to the Corpus Christi holiday on June 4. On Tuesday (June 2), Senate President Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP) will meet with party leaders to discuss the legislative timetable for the constitutional amendment proposal (PEC) that would end the ...

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