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Rosstat reported that output in the five basic sectors - industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, and trade - was up 0.2% y-o-y in 9M26 and 0.7% in September alone. Both figures are unimpressive, though some parts of the economy performed slightly better last month. Industrial output ...

Upcoming webinar - Czechia's outlook: Election results, fiscal constraints and the CNB's next move

CZECHIA · Report · 29 Oct 2026

Date: 30 Oct 2026 Time: 11:00 AM EDT What do the senate and municipal election results mean for Czechia's outlook? With the opposition keeping its veto power in the Senate, how will Babiš pursue his agenda? What's ahead for fiscal policy? How will the central bank handle its upcoming interest...

Flávio Bolsonaro released a letter in which he called himself the “true president-elect of Brazil,” Motta is the favorite to lead the House, and the TCU approved a CBS rate of 11.3% for next year

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Oct 2026

Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ), who was defeated in the second round of the presidential election, arrived in Miami, United States, yesterday (Oct. 28) with his wife and two daughters. In the afternoon, he released a letter in which he described himself as the “true president-elect of Brazil.” ...

Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 29 Oct 2026

The CBR’s decision to keep interest rates steady - while upping its forecast for the average key rate in 2027 by 150 basis point - did little to lift market spirits. The regulator sees pro-inflationary forces as dominant right now, leaving almost no chance for easing monetary policy through the r...

Netanyahu's bloc leads the election results, but political deadlock remains

ISRAEL · In Brief · 29 Oct 2026

Election results According to the latest vote count in Israel's 2026 elections, Netanyahu's bloc holds 53 seats compared with 48 for the Zionist opposition led by Gadi Eisenkot and 19 for the Arab parties. The results are not yet final, as the double-envelope ballots, mainly from soldiers and oth...

Machado’s return is a catalyst

VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Oct 2026

María Corina Machado’s arrival in Venezuela accelerates the process toward a change of government. Organizing elections and the necessary overhaul of the electoral authorities have moved from vague milestones to the center of the conversation, and could give business activity a boost. U.S. pre...

Flávio Bolsonaro left Brazil for the U.S. with his wife and daughters, the Minister of Finance said the government is preparing a legislative change for the fiscal target, and Lula signaled support for Motta and Alcolumbre

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Oct 2026

Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) left Brazil yesterday (Oct. 27) for the United States with his wife and daughters. He had until yesterday morning to surrender his passports, under an order issued by Supreme Federal Court (STF) Justice Alexandre de Moraes as part of an investigation into alleged ...

Slower, but no reason to panic

CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 27 Oct 2026

Costa Rican economic performance is showing warning signs that point toward reduced momentum, suggesting a slower year in 2027, although crisis is not on the horizon. A weak labor market has seen a decline in participation since January 2025, meaning reduced capacity to create jobs, and a threate...

Orbán for UN Secretary-General: is this a joke?

HUNGARY · In Brief · 27 Oct 2026

Well, it sounds like one, but may be it is not. The news comes from a WSJ article published two days ago, and we regard WSJ as way more serious than just inventing fake stories of this kind. Anyway, the article reported about a distinct US push in background diplomacy, to bring together a joint U...

Lula met with the presidents of the Lower House and Senate, the PT’s priority in Congress is to approve the proposal on free transportation, and the PL issued a statement yesterday recognizing the result of the election

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Oct 2026

President Lula (PT) met yesterday (Oct. 26) at the Alvorada Palace with Lower House President Hugo Motta (Republicanos-PB) and Senate President Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP). It was the first meeting among the three since Lula’s reelection. On the legislative agenda, the PT’s priority is to approve ...

Shoppers keep spending, prices keep rising, and the fight over the institutions spreads to the central bank

POLAND · Report · 27 Oct 2026

The economy is still growing at about 3.5% a year. The slowdown in September retail sales comes almost entirely from fuel stations, after the end of the fuel relief in September pushed pump prices up by a third. Sales excluding fuels grew 5.9% y-o-y in September, the fastest this year. Industry a...

Kilicdaroglu makes early elections assist to Erdogan

TURKEY · In Brief · 26 Oct 2026

In our Quarterly I argued forcefully that early elections will not take place before March-April 2028, while still stick to my baseline, a recent statement by CHP’s court appointed chairperson Kemal Kilicdaroglu is certain to stoke a second round of heated debate about the timing of early electio...

Weekly Report - October 26, 2026: Israel heads to the polls; Bank of Israel signals a pause in rate cuts; economic growth remains strong but uneven

ISRAEL · Report · 26 Oct 2026

Israel heads to the October 27 elections amid uncertainty over the outcome and renewed threats of military escalation. The final polls give Netanyahu's bloc around 50 seats, compared with approximately 69 for the Zionist opposition and Arab parties combined. However, political deadlock remains a ...

Expensive and Inefficient

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Oct 2026

General government expenditure in Brazil, excluding interest and transfers, amounts to 18.3% of GDP, above the median for both emerging economies and Latin American countries. Yet the return on this spending is low. Basic public services, such as education, healthcare and public security, fall sh...

Pashinyan's sweeping victory in local vote may encourage him to pursue snap Parliamentary elections

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 26 Oct 2026

Over the weekend, Armenia held partial local elections, where the ruling Civil Contract enjoyed a sweeping victory. The October 25 vote did not represent nationwide municipal elections as 21 out of a total of 64 municipalities went to the polls. In 19 of them voters elected local councils and in ...