GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

“Unfair and unwarranted”. That is how Vice President Geraldo Alckmin described the U.S. government’s decision to impose a 25% tariff on Brazilian exports. According to the vice president, the administration is preparing a program to support the affected sectors. Alckmin also said the government c...

June CPI remains unchanged; annual inflation declines to 1.6%

ISRAEL · In Brief · 17 Jul 2026

Israel's June CPI was unchanged (0.0% m/m), in line with our forecast and slightly above the market consensus of a 0.1% decline. Annual inflation slowed to 1.6%, its lowest level in five years and well below the midpoint of the Bank of Israel's target range. The main downside came from seasonal f...

Essential CIS Politics: July 1-16, 2026

CIS POLITICS · Report · 16 Jul 2026

Key headlines: * Ukraine War update: Russian President Vladimir Putin declared full control of Luhansk Oblast and claimed major advances, although verified data showed Russia had gained about 2,000 square kilometers since January. Ukrainian drone strikes hit over 100 Russian vessels in the Se...

The U.S. decided to impose the 25% tariff on Brazilian exports, Flávio Bolsonaro’s presidential candidacy faces several setbacks, and Justice Dino demanded that all political parties report on their congressional funds

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Jul 2026

As expected, the United States confirmed a 25% tariff on Brazilian exports. The measure has quickly become politicized, and President Lula is expected to use it as a campaign issue by placing responsibility on Flávio Bolsonaro. Another setback for Flávio Bolsonaro came from the latest Genial/Quae...

The first trade deficit in years

INDONESIA · Report · 16 Jul 2026

Indonesia's economy during June and the first part of July 2026 was marked by the announcement of the country's first trade deficit (for May) in years and a weakening exchange rate. The trade deficit was mostly due to a decline in exports, while imports also fell M/M, but at a slower rate. Me...

Remittance riches shore up Tajikistan’s external accounts

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 16 Jul 2026

Tajikistan external story is probably the simplest as the BoP is heavily dominated by remittances from Russia. Tajikistan is the last in the short series on the external accounts of the CCA economies, and it is arguably the most straightforward of all. It has been posting CA surpluses since mid-2...

Zelensky's decision to remove Fedorov sparks fury: street protest announced

UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 Jul 2026

As speculation over the removal of the Svyrydenko Cabinet built through the week, the consensus among Kyiv insiders converged to the point that the real target of the whole maneuver was to remove Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov. The wider cabinet reshuffle, among other things, allowed for addre...

The Senate approved the Freight MP, it also approved a PEC on special retirement rules for community health workers, and the U.S. should decide today whether to impose the 25% tariff on Brazilian exports

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Jul 2026

Yesterday, the Senate approved the provisional measure (MP) changing the rules governing minimum road freight rates, but without the proposed monthly minimum wage of R$5,000 for truck drivers. The text now goes to the president for sanction. The Senate also approved a proposed constitutional amen...

Economic growth remains steady

KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 15 Jul 2026

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that the short-term indicator, which tracks monthly aggregate economic activity across industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, trade, and communications, grew by 5.1% y-o-y in 1H26, up from 4.3% y-o-y in 5M26. The Bureau also released detail...

Fujimori named president-elect; El Niño shock and external drivers buffet the economy; Velarde confirmed as Central Bank governor for five more years

PERU · Forecast · 15 Jul 2026

In our first forecast report since Peruvians elected Keiko Fujimori (KF) as their next president, we first discuss the election process and the decision by the Jurado Nacional de Elecciones (JNE, the national electoral panel) to confirm her as president-elect, and outline the main challenges she’...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary

KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 15 Jul 2026

Jul 2 Energy Ministry: Russia has not requested fuel supplies, including humanitarian aid. Alatau City Bank: The bank has decided to return KZT 125.3 bln ($261.4 mln) of state aid to the government ahead of schedule. President: Mobile operator VEON, a multinational telecommunication and digital s...

Uzbekistan's BoP suffers the pinch of gold, albeit with a caveat

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 15 Jul 2026

The CA deficit has widened significantly on lack of gold exports. Uzbekistan had enjoyed a stream of steadily improving external accounts over 2024/2025 as the CA deficit narrowed from the peak of 8.0 percent of GDP in 1Q24 (on a 12mma basis) to the trough of only 1.9 percent of GDP in 3Q25 (Grap...

The Freight MP may be put to a vote today in the Senate, truck drivers called for a strike yesterday but participation was limited, and Justice Moraes suspended Flávio Bolsonaro’s visitation rights to his father’s house

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Jul 2026

The government leader in the National Congress, Senator Randolfe Rodrigues (PT-AP), said yesterday that the Freight MP (Provisional Measure 1,343/26) will be ready for a floor vote today (July 14). Leaders of independent truck drivers called for a strike starting at midnight on Monday in support ...

Georgia is riding an FX wave to its smallest current-account deficit ever

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 14 Jul 2026

Georgia's external story has its own defining characteristics, centered around the steady inflow of foreign exchange in the face of complex political relations with the West. The CA registered a deficit of US$356.0mn in 1Q26 on the back of the US$631.1mn deficit posted in 1Q25 and the US$482.5mn ...

Weekly report, July 13, 2026: June CPI in focus; inflation to ease to 1.7%; fiscal data surprise to the upside

ISRAEL · Report · 13 Jul 2026

Key headlines: - The June CPI will be published on Wednesday. We expect inflation to remain unchanged on the month (0.0% m/m), thus lowering annual inflation to around 1.7%, supported by lower fuel prices and the earlier appreciation of the shekel. - We expect one additional 25bp Bank of Is...