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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Government advances political inquiry into October 7 as families demand state commission
ISRAEL · In Brief · 22 Dec 2025

Israel’s Ministerial Committee for Legislation approved on Monday a proposed law by MK Ariel Kallner (Likud), backed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, to establish a political, non-state commission of inquiry into the failures surrounding the October 7 attack and the ensuing war. Under the pr...

Politics: The 2025 balance sheet: a concentration of power, the consolidation of the 4T, and main problems unresolved or getting worse
MEXICO · Report · 22 Dec 2025

With the year 2025 drawing to a close and Claudia Sheinbaum’s first year in office under her belt, this week’s edition of the Political Outlook centers on drawing a balance sheet of the past 12 months. The analysis centers on two levels: a general account of the legislative sessions and governme...

Kazakhstan macro: Tax reform to make intra-budgetary transactions less distortive
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 22 Dec 2025

Recent budget execution statistics show the economy is in good shape, with local tax collection continuing to outperform. Mid-year, the initial 2025 target was revised upward, and by November tax revenues had hit 94.4% of that revised goal. Local budgets, which also get transfers from the republi...

Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments – Weekly report, December 22, 2025
ISRAEL · Report · 22 Dec 2025

Data released over the past week support the view that Israel’s economy is transitioning to a more stable growth phase, with activity expanding at an above-trend pace. Inflation surprised to the downside, easing to 2.4% in November, with underlying measures such as services inflation pointing to ...

Russian macro: The economy at the crossroads: uncertainty ahead once again
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 22 Dec 2025

This year is shaping up to deliver some unexpected macroeconomic results, with growth slowing sharply and GDP on track for around 1.0%, compared to 4.3% and 4.1% in the previous year and in 2023. Those stronger figures were largely the result of Rosstat’s substantial revisions to earlier data. Wh...

Why the BSP may need to pause further monetary easing
PHILIPPINES · Report · 22 Dec 2025

The BSP cut policy rates in December 2025 as inflation fell well below target, creating room for easing. However, Governor Eli Remolona has since clarified that further rate cuts are not assured and will depend on incoming data, financial stability risks, and market confidence. While economic ...

Brazilianization of Colombia
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 21 Dec 2025

Should the Central Bank start a new hiking phase for the intervention interest rate? Apparently, this is the prevailing view among many observers of monetary policy. Felipe Campos from Aliaza puts it succinctly: “The pressure is shifting to the Central Bank of Colombia, which is facing this situa...

Surprise surprise
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 21 Dec 2025 · 1 response

Acrimony will probably surface in the next meeting of market creators with Minfin’s Public Credit director. On Friday, December 19th, there was a secretive $6 billion financing operation with an unknown funding source at an interest rate of 13.5%. This caught both the market makers and the market...

An unwarranted emergency
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 21 Dec 2025

During the press conference convened to announce the Central Bank’s Board decision to keep its policy rate unchanged at 9.25%, something quite unusual happened. Once governor Villar read the press statement agreed upon by the board members, finance minister Avila intervened not to comment the gov...

War of attrition with a focus on oil
VENEZUELA · Report · 21 Dec 2025

After four months of naval deployment with no tangible results, Trump’s strategy toward Venezuela has shifted from military posturing to economic strangulation. By announcing a “total blockade” on sanctioned vessels carrying Venezuelan oil, seizing the tanker Skipper on December 10, slapping sanc...

Surprisingly robust, as remittances lead the way
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 19 Dec 2025

With Costa Rica less than two months away from the February 1 presidential and congressional elections, government candidate Laura Fernández continues to lead in the polls. But given the high proportion of undecided voters, it is still unclear whether the election will be decided in the first rou...

GULF WEEKLY: UAE non-oil growth soars, MGX buys into TikTok, IMF visits Kuwait, Oman-India CEPA signed
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 19 Dec 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude fell below $60 for the first time in nearly five years, despite the US blockade of Venezuela. * China’s foreign minister, visiting Saudi Arabia and the UAE, called for progress on an FTA with the GCC. * Saudi ...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: The Carnegie Paradox; After the surge, CCA currencies move from boom to balance
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 19 Dec 2025

It may only be natural to have my last TOPIC OF THE WEEK for the year attempt a kind of philosophical diversion into, and analysis of, a recent Carnegie Endowment post titled "Passions over Ararat. Why is Pashinyan trying to change the Armenian national identity?" I zoomed in on this piece for a ...

The Joint Budget Committee should vote on the 2026 Budget, Congress should recess today and return on February 2, and the Mercosur-EU agreement may be signed next year
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Dec 2025

Today, the Joint Budget Committee is expected to vote on the 2026 Budget Bill (PLOA 2026). The meeting was originally scheduled for yesterday, but the budget rapporteur, Representative Isnaldo Bulhões (MDB-AL), requested additional time to adjust the budget text. After approval by the committee, ...

Don’t be fooled
COLOMBIA · Report · 19 Dec 2025

The Petro administration will surely trumpet new CARF announcements outlining better-than-expected 2025 fiscal results. The 2025 national central government deficit will be below the 7.6% we and a substantial group of analysts and investors were expecting, and closer to 6.2%. Net NCG debt also im...

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