Country Insights

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El Salvador: An Unfortunate Step Backward
CENTRAL AMERICA - Monthly Report 26 Apr 2017
El Salvador has taken a step backward in its efforts to improve economic conditions. What we consider an unfortunate government decision – the announcement that it has been forced to miss payments on pension certificates – has created unnecessary turmoil, with unwan ...

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Economics: Public Finance Challenges Grow
MEXICO - Weekly Trends 26 Apr 2017
In late March of this year, Banco de México’s Board of Governors signed off on the audited financial statements for the close of 2016. The main takeaway from the announcement – although also notable was the record increase in the central bank’s operating surplus to ...

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Politics: A State of Systemic Corruption
MEXICO - Weekly Trends 26 Apr 2017
Mexico may be no stranger to the scourge of corruption, but it certainly had no precedent for the parade of state governors arrested, charged, and otherwise denounced for acts of corruption just in the past two weeks. Although the arrests were confined to two fugiti ...

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MPC: Tighter, Yet Still Behind
TURKEY - Market Brief 26 Apr 2017
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) raised the Late Liquidity Window (LLW) rate by a further 50 bps today to 12.25%, atop last meeting’s (March 16, 2017) 75 bps hike, while keeping all other short-term rates unchanged (see chart). The consensus was “tilted toward” n ...

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Secret service conducts a search at one of the largest local investment bank
UKRAINE - Note 26 Apr 2017
Secret service of Ukraine conducted a search in Dragon capital, one of the largest local investment banks – this news broke the headlines today. Press-service of Dragon capital reported that secret service was looking for unlicensed soft at the computers of the inve ...

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Turkey’s ”European vocation” in jeopardy
TURKEY - Note 26 Apr 2017
Last year, European Parliament passed a non-binding resolution to suspend Turkey’s accession negotiations with EU. Yesterday, The Parliamentary Assembly of European Council (PAEC) reduced Turkey’s membership to “monitoring” status, citing the State of Emergency and ...

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Week of April 24
BRAZIL POLITICS - Weekly Trends 24 Apr 2017
The general workers’ strike scheduled for Friday is expected to see significant support and bring chaos to cities throughout the country. The Lower House may conclude voting on states’ debt. Labor Reform is also on the voting agenda. The Special Committee on Pension ...

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Inflation Continues Falling
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Market Brief 24 Apr 2017
For the first time since January 2010, inflation accumulated over the preceding 12 months is now below the target, and all signs are that the deceleration process will continue in the coming months. The recession is nearing its end, but the tendency will be for very ...

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Can Moreno Govern a Divided Country?
ECUADOR - Quarterly Outlook 24 Apr 2017 1 response
President-elect Lenín Moreno refused all invitations to debate during the two months of campaigning – as he was probably self-conscious about his nonetheless-evident weaknesses. After a complicated and almost violent campaign that ended with a recount of close to 1 ...

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Time for a Strong Macro Stimulus
PERU - Note 23 Apr 2017
After a disappointing GDP growth in February (0.7% y/y), leading indicators suggest a much worse performance for March – the monthly impact of El Niño phenomenon at its peak. A negative growth rate for that month is expected, and we would not be surprised to see GDP ...

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Political and Economic Update
TURKEY - Weekly Trends 23 Apr 2017 1 response
We begin by laying out the evidence about the fairness of the referendum voting. From a legal viewpoint, the High Election Council ruling to count the unstamped ballot slips weakened voter security and made it difficult to detect fraud. On the other hand, there is n ...

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Another failed attempt to arrest ‘big fish’
UKRAINE - Note 23 Apr 2017
Last Thursday, on April 20th National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) put under detention another well-known rent-seeker Mykola Martynenko. Martynenko is the purse of ‘People’s front’ party led by ex-prime minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk. He was arrested under suspicion of ...

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Time to Move On
INDONESIA - Monthly Report 21 Apr 2017
The gubernatorial election in Jakarta was accomplished peacefully. Police backed by the Army did a great job in defusing the mobilization of people from outside Jakarta who would have liked to oversee the election and indirectly might have intervened in the polling ...

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Lula’s electoral potential increases, the PSDB leads rejection and opens field for outsider candidates
BRAZIL POLITICS - Market Brief 20 Apr 2017 1 response
​Ibope released a poll to measure the electoral potential of possible pre-candidates in the 2018 presidential race. The poll was conducted on April 7-11, before the release of the content of the Odebrecht plea bargain deals. ...

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OK given to an agreement between Odebretch and the Office of the General Attorney
In what can be interpreted as a victory for the government, yesterday a judge approved the terms of an agreement between Odebretch and the Office of the General Attorney through which the firm accepts to cooperate with the investigation on kickbacks on infrastructur ...