GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

The moment Trump’s Air Force 1 landed in Ankara, where he was personally welcomed by Erdogan, Trump began heaping praise on the latter, which continued before and after the summit press comments. It is certain that the troubled Turko-American relationship made a clean break with its past, with re...

Explaining the Differences Between MECON’s Financing Program, Released Yesterday, and My Own Estimates Published Last Week

ARGENTINA · In Brief · 07 Jul 2026

As expected, the government yesterday released its financing program for 2026 and 2027 in response to strong market demand. While the announcement has helped assuage investor concerns about the administration’s ability to service debt maturing this year and next, it leaves some important question...

Losing Crimea would end Putin’s regime, so new escalation likely

UKRAINE · Report · 07 Jul 2026

Ukraine's drone-based logistical blockade of Crimea is proving effective, while still in its early stages of scaling, backed by tens of billions of dollars in EU funding. Unlike Kherson in 2022, when Washington restrained Ukraine from destroying the encircled Russian grouping, external limits on ...

Flávio Bolsonaro will participate in the USTR public hearing, Motta will meet with the FPA to discuss the rural debt renegotiation bill, and the president of the CNI requested predictability for the Selective Tax under tax reform

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Jul 2026

Today, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) will participate in a public hearing in the United States to discuss the proposed additional 25% tariff on Brazilian products. The son of former President Jair Bolsonaro is expected to speak for five minutes. Today, Speaker of the House Hugo Motta (Republic...

Economics: Banxico faces high uncertainty amid still-uncontrolled core inflation and the Fed rate outlook

MEXICO · Report · 07 Jul 2026

Banxico's Governing Board unanimously held the reference rate at 6.5% at its last monetary policy meeting, closing out an easing cycle that had accumulated a 475-basis-point reduction since March 2024. The pace of cuts had been rapid, and the pause comes at a time when core inflation remains abov...

Oops! Inflation was down again in June

HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Jul 2026

The headline rate of CPI-inflation fell marginally in June, to 1.7% yoy from the previous month’s 1.8%, defying analyst and MNB expectations of a small rise, to 1.9-2%. It looks lüke the strong forint is indeed very powerful, whereas normalising energy prices and the global food price cycle are a...

Weekly report, July 6, 2026: Bank of Israel cuts rates and upgrades the macro outlook

ISRAEL · Report · 06 Jul 2026

The Bank of Israel lowered its policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.50%, in line with our expectations and market pricing. This follows previous rate cuts in December 2025, January 2026 and May 2026, bringing cumulative easing to 100bp over the past seven months. The tone has become somewhat le...

A reduced "fiscal time bomb" agenda and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Jul 2026

The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) is holding a public hearing on Monday and Tuesday to hear testimony from American and Brazilian organizations regarding its investigation into Brazilian trade practices that the U.S. considers "unreasonable". Meanwhile, President of the ...

2026 ELECTIONS: The Candidates

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Jul 2026

Opinion polls on voter preferences regarding presidential candidates continue to reflect a frozen scenario between the two extremes - Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro - with the lead oscillating according to the news flow. At the moment, after the revelations of Flavio's involvement with Daniel Vorcaro,...

Russian macro: economic dichotomy hampers growth

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 06 Jul 2026

In our previous reports, we mentioned that some officially announced data appeared odd amid slowing economic growth. While there’s no doubt about the general trends — the overall economy seems unhealthy, even if some sectors are doing relatively well — the constant revision of inconsistent statis...

Hugo Motta will meet with representatives of the FPA to discuss rural debt, the Senate may vote on the minimum freight rate policy proposal, and the USTR will hold public hearings on Brazil’s trade practices

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Jul 2026

Hugo Motta, President of the House, will meet on Tuesday (July 7) with representatives of the Parliamentary Agricultural Front (FPA) to discuss the proposal addressing rural debt (Bill No. 5,122/23). The economic team opposes the bill, which has already been approved by the Senate, due to its fis...

The Philippines reclassified as an upper-middle-income country: a milestone, not the destination

PHILIPPINES · Report · 06 Jul 2026

The World Bank's reclassification of the Philippines as an upper-middle-income country marks an important achievement in the country's economic journey and recognizes its resilience and sustained macroeconomic progress. Yet the greater challenge lies not in attaining a higher income classificatio...

Omnibus closer to approval, but further from working its magic

CHILE · Report · 06 Jul 2026

Recent data points to further weakness in domestic activity. Mining and manufacturing explained most of the contraction, but the pace of expansion remained weak, even when these sectors are excluded. Consumption-related indicators were somewhat more resilient. The picture is increasingly gloomy, ...

Poland outlook: inflation on target, demand still fragile, and "hospitalgate" adds political risk

POLAND · Report · 06 Jul 2026

We assess Poland’s short-term macroeconomic outlook and the emerging political risks surrounding the governing coalition. Inflation fell back to the NBP target in June 2026, mainly due to declining food prices, while core inflation remained broadly stable, indicating that domestic demand pressure...

Politics: Mexico's 2027 midterm elections: early maneuvering, internal tensions, and a fragmented opposition

MEXICO · Report · 06 Jul 2026

With eleven months to go before Mexico's midterm elections — in which 500 congressional seats, 17 governorships, and nearly two thousand municipal presidencies are at stake — Morena has already launched its candidate selection process, months ahead of what the law permits. Exploiting a strategy r...