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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Economic performance looks increasingly unimpressive
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 28 Aug 2025

According to Rosstat, the output of the five basic sectors, a monthly proxy for overall economic activity, grew y-o-y by just 0.2% in July and 0.9% in the first seven months of 2025, indicating a rapid slowdown. Industrial production increased by 0.7% in July and 0.8% in 7M25, though July marked ...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 28 Aug 2025

Demand for OFZ has declined recently as many investors are taking profits, with long-term yields falling below 14% and further drops appearing uncertain, even with a potential 200 bps rate cut by the CBR in September. Market participants are also cautious about additional supply from Minfin due t...

Which way will the Constitutional Court go?
COLOMBIA · Report · 28 Aug 2025

This is a pivotal moment for the composition of Colombia’s Constitutional Court. Justice José Fernando Reyes, aligned with the “defense of institutions” bloc, will soon resign, leaving a critical vacancy. To fill it, the Supreme Court has nominated Patricia Balanta, Carlos Camargo and Jaime Humbe...

Questions I've been frequently asked since my last report
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 28 Aug 2025

Here are my answers to the main questions market participants have been asking me as the midterm election approaches. What do the polls say about President Milei's chance of winning the midterm election? Current polls position Javier Milei's La Libertad Avanza (LLA) as the favorite for the Octobe...

Motta said the income tax bill has good momentum for approval, the government is working to ensure the compensatory measures remain in the bill, and the Senate approved the bill to combat the “adultization” of children online
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Aug 2025

The President of the Lower House, Hugo Motta (Republicanos–PB), stated that the report from the special committee that debated income tax exemption for those earning up to R$ 5,000 will reach the floor with strong momentum for approval. The government is working to ensure that the compensatory me...

Israel slows bond issuance in September, but fiscal risks point to higher borrowing ahead
ISRAEL · In Brief · 27 Aug 2025

The government’s monthly issuance plan for September 2025 is to raise NIS 11.0 billion in tradable bonds on the local capital market in four weekly tenders, averaging NIS 2.75 billion per week. This marks a slower pace than in previous months: In July, issuance totaled NIS 12.37 billion, after a ...

Motta placed two PECs on the plenary agenda yesterday, the CPMI into the INSS approved requests to summon former presidents of the INSS, and VP Alckmin will meet with the president of Mexico tomorrow
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Aug 2025

After meeting with party leaders yesterday, Lower House President Hugo Motta (Republicanos-PB) placed two constitutional amendment proposals (PECs) on the plenary agenda: one ends privileged jurisdiction (foro privilegiado) and the other is the so-called “Immunities PEC". Yesterday, the Joint Par...

Adjusting to challenges
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 27 Aug 2025

Guatemala experienced relative macroeconomic stability in H1 2025, despite rising global uncertainty from new U.S. tariffs, migration policy shifts and geopolitical risks. President Bernardo Arévalo has sought to strengthen institutional legitimacy and to advance an ambitious reform agenda focuse...

Elections, Congress and the Peru-Colombia territorial conflict; we forecast 2.2% growth in H2 2025; BCRP stands pat in August, but expected to cut 25 bp in September
PERU · Report · 27 Aug 2025

In this report, we cover three topics: political risks in the run-up to the general elections; assessment of the state of the economy following the strong June 2025 GDP performance; and our expectation that the Board of the Banco Central de Reserva del Perú will cut its policy rate by 25 bp at it...

Mind the calm, not the gap
CHILE · Report · 26 Aug 2025

In June the IMACEC was up 3.1% y/y, but that figure overstates momentum: much of the improvement reflects base effects and one-offs. Underlying consumption trends remain closer to stagnation than expansion. Business sentiment is still stuck in pessimistic territory, consistent with the slow pace ...

Business as usual: no policy change at today's monthly Monetary Council meeting
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Aug 2025

The MNB base rate and the interest rate corridor have been kept unchanged, at 6.5% and 5.5-7.5%, respectively, and the Council saw no reason to change its forward guidance either. This outcome was in conformity with the MNB's previous communication and analyst expectations alike. In Portfolio.hu'...

Motta schedules for next week the beginning of a debate on administrative reform, the INSS CPMI begins work today, and Lula will hold a cabinet meeting today to discuss the US tariff hike
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Aug 2025

Yesterday, Lower House President Hugo Motta (Republicanos-PB) announced that a General Committee meeting will be held on the House floor next Wednesday (September 3) to debate administrative reform. Meanwhile, the INSS CPMI will launch its work today with votes on dozens of requests to summon thr...

The government reveals its macroeconomic projections and medium-term budget figures
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 26 Aug 2025

The Kazakh government has announced the approval of the medium-term macroeconomic forecast and key budget figures. GDP is expected to grow by 5.4% in 2026, with average annual growth from 2026-2028 projected at 5.3%, indicating a slight slowdown after 2026. These figures seem reasonable given the...

Economics: Considerable reduction in multidimensional poverty in 2024 due to an increase in labor income
MEXICO · Report · 26 Aug 2025

The National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) published the results of the 2024 Multidimensional Poverty measurement. This is the first time Inegi has been in charge of the report, following the dissolution of Coneval, which had been responsible for calculating multidimensional pover...

Politics: Highly questioned Judicial Reform validation—prelude to a more opaque election model?
MEXICO · Report · 25 Aug 2025

The June 2 Judicial Election was questioned from the word go. It was criticized as a logistical nightmare with voters having to decide between hundreds of unknown candidates, with severely restricted limits on campaigning, and perhaps most importantly, the danger that the public electing the judi...

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