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Essential CIS Politics: May 16 - June 1, 2026
CIS POLITICS · Report · 01 Jun 2026

Major headlines: - The EU continues to inch closer to diplomatic engagement with Russia, publicly discussing appointing a special envoy to this end. - Formal peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine remain seemingly stalled, with no publicly announced negotiations held. Russi...

Moving forward without certainty
VENEZUELA · Report · 01 Jun 2026

The Delcy Rodríguez government is moving ahead with calculated pragmatism: freeing prisoners, reopening public space, and attracting oil investment, while keeping the instruments of political control intact—the Attorney General’s Office, the courts, and the repressive legal framework—and favoring...

South Africa’s economic outlook: resilience amid rising global uncertainty
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 01 Jun 2026

South African growth: South Africa’s economic growth in 2025 accelerated from 2024’s anemic growth. However, relative to forecasts at the start of 2025, GDP growth still surprised on the downside—once again. The South African National Treasury had forecast 2025 GDP to expand by 1.4% during Budget...

Stagnation in the first quarter
TURKEY · Report · 01 Jun 2026

The Turkish economy grew by 2.5%, y/y, in the first quarter of 2026, lower than market expectations (2.7%) and the 3.4% growth recorded in the previous quarter. Sequentially, i.e., on a quarter-on-quarter basis, growth continued to lose momentum visibly, barely moving in the quarter (0.13%, q/q),...

The federal holiday on Thursday will reduce activity in Congress, the Senate President will meet with party leaders to discuss the voting schedule for the 6x1 PEC, and Lula will hold a cabinet meeting on Wednesday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Jun 2026

Congress will operate on a reduced schedule this week due to the Corpus Christi holiday on June 4. On Tuesday (June 2), Senate President Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP) will meet with party leaders to discuss the legislative timetable for the constitutional amendment proposal (PEC) that would end the ...

Russian macro: The 4M26 industrial statistics suggests economic growth remains subdued
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Jun 2026

Rosstat announced that in 4M26, industrial output rose 0.7% y-o-y, up from 0.3% in the first quarter, with April alone posting a 1.9% y-o-y increase. Seasonally adjusted figures showed a 0.3% m-o-m gain in April. Mining was up 0.5% y-o-y in 4M26, while manufacturing grew by 3.2%. Monthly producti...

Inflation gradually slows but remains elevated
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 01 Jun 2026

According to the Bureau of National Statistics, in May, annual inflation eased to 10.4% from 10.6% in April, while monthly inflation slowed to 0.7% from 0.8%. Despite this moderation, inflation remains high, with the NBK keeping the base rate steady at 18.0%. Even the stronger tenge, which apprec...

A hard day's start
CHILE · Report · 01 Jun 2026

We maintain our 1.5% GDP growth forecast for 2026, with risks still tilted to the downside. The latest activity data point to an unfavorable turn, and national accounts came in weaker than suggested by the IMACEC. Some of the weaknesses reflect one-time supply side events, but these do not fully ...

ELECTIONS IN COLOMBIA: THE FIRST ROUND WAS A HARSH BLOW FOR THE GOVERNMENT AND ITS CANDIDATE
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 31 May 2026

Today, Colombia held its first round elections to choose President for the Constitutional period 2026-2030. Without hesitation, the big news about this election day was the win of the hard-right, outsider candidate Abelardo De La Espriella (ABDLE), with more 670.000 votes above the government’s c...

Mayhem @CHP: some thoughts
TURKEY · Report · 31 May 2026

As we had announced last Sunday, there will not be a weekly report today because Turkey was on holiday during much of last week. But politics was not, as the two CHP leaders – now dubbed by the local media “appointed” (Kemal Kilicdaroglu) vs “elected” (yet now ousted, Ozgur Ozel) – continued to b...

€16.4bn of EU funds to Hungary now conditionally unblocked
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 May 2026 · 1 response

This was announced at a press conference held by Mme von der Leyen and PM Magyar on Friday, May 29. Of the total amount, €12.9bn represents grants and a further €3.5bn represents low-cost loans. Prior to this announcement, a total of €17.6bn was known as being blocked, so not all, but most of the...

High consumption, low productivity: the Central Bank’s dilemma
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 29 May 2026

GDP grew in line with expectations, 1.1%, far stronger than observed during the second half of 2025, when the economy remained stagnant. From the supply perspective, the highlights were once again agriculture and the mineral extraction to which we can also add construction. Although we include th...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil eases on deal hopes, rating agencies affirm four states, Qatar Q1 deficit at 5% of GDP
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 29 May 2026

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil fell to $91 as hopes grew for an Iran deal; Trump said a “final determination” will happen today. * This followed a week when Iranian leaders held talks in Qatar, but the US and Iran exchanged fire. * Lebanon could be...

The U.S. has decided to designate the CV and PCC as terrorist organizations, Lula will hold a cabinet meeting on Wednesday, and Thursday is a federal holiday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 May 2026

The week appeared headed toward a major victory for the government with the Lower House’s approval of the proposal to eliminate Brazil’s 6x1 work schedule. However, that development was overshadowed by the U.S. government's decision to designate Comando Vermelho (CV) and Primeiro Comando da Capit...

Weekly report, May 29, 2026: Bank of Israel cuts rates, the shekel strengthens further, and the U.S.-Iran deal is still being negotiated
ISRAEL · Report · 29 May 2026

Key developments and outlook: - Negotiations between the United States and Iran continued this week, although President Trump stated that “there is no agreement at the moment” and that the U.S. remains dissatisfied with the talks. - According to reports, the agreement will include restricti...

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