Country Insights

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​Fiscal excesses, monetary uncertainties
TURKEY - In Brief 22 Jul 2018
We take a quick look at last week’s June budget data and preview the upcoming MPC meeting. Recall that we put our Weekly Update on holiday, and will issue a political update on Monday.June BudgetThe Central Government budget ran a TL25.6 billion overall, and TL2...

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Revelation of massive corruption in the Judiciary
PERU - In Brief 20 Jul 2018
The ongoing revelations of widespread corruption within Peru's justice system has ushered a major political crisis that has produced wide popular anger, and is likely to result in a major shake up within three key institutions: The Judiciary, the Attorney Genera...

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The South African Reserve Bank keeps the repo rate unchanged at 6.5%
SOUTH AFRICA - Report 19 Jul 2018
The Reserve Bank today decided to leave the country’s benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6.5%, which means the prime interest rate also remains at 10%. Yesterday we reported that CPI inflation accelerated from 4.4% y/y in May 2018 to 4.6% y/y in June large...

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Will fading Ramaphoria compromise South Africa’s growth recovery?
SOUTH AFRICA - Forecast 18 Jul 2018
Summary and Assumptions • South Africa’s growth: Real GDP contracted markedly in the first quarter of 2018 following a surprise 3.1% increase in the fourth quarter of 2017 and GDP growth above 2% for three consecutive quarters (since quarter 2 2017). Although t...

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Full Employment Declines in Q2
ECUADOR - In Brief 18 Jul 2018
President Moreno will be sending his veto to the recently approved economic law today. In the meanwhile, INEC published the latest employment information that shows a decline in the quality and number of jobs between Q2 2017 and Q2 2018.In fact, 161,689 full-tim...

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The forint is to stay weak on a sustained basis
HUNGARY - Forecast 18 Jul 2018
The temporarily but substantially depreciating trend of the forint, which started in May, collapsed spontaneously in early July, without the MNB doing anything material to stabilize the currency, except for stopping its usual market interventions against the HUF...

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Issuance of Global Bonds for USD 1.3 bn reveals a drastic change in financing strategy
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - In Brief 17 Jul 2018
Last week the Dominican Republic placed bonds with 10 years to maturity in the international market for USD 1.3 bn at 6%. It was a surprise because that issuance put the total amount placed in the year at USD 3.122 bn, USD 1.022 bn above the indicative ceiling s...

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Economics: Economic challenges for the new administration
MEXICO - Report 16 Jul 2018
International conditions could affect the viability of the economic program that Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s government hopes to begin implementing as soon as it takes office December 1, especially considering the extent to which the last two presidential admi...

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Politics: Presidencialismo à la AMLO
MEXICO - Report 16 Jul 2018
It may be too soon to fully grasp the dimensions of how profoundly the sweeping electoral victory of Andrés Manuel López Obrador and his coalition will transform the political life of Mexico, but we can be sure it will bring major changes in the way power is wi...

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How far can the PT go without Lula and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 16 Jul 2018
Party conventions to select candidates and define coalitions ahead of the October elections begin on Friday, July 20. At least three candidacies will be made official by Sunday: Ciro Gomes (PDT), Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) and Jair Bolsonaro (PSL). With Michel Teme...

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Worse international conditions alongside domestic disarray
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 16 Jul 2018
The Central Bank long warned that the benefits of a favorable international situation were masking the damage caused by the absence of fiscal reforms, especially of the pension system. The fiscal reform efforts are stalled and now the international conditions ha...

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Inflation enters the target range, but BoI expected to be patient
ISRAEL - Report 16 Jul 2018
June's CPI (0.1% m/m, 1.3% y/y) surprised on the upside on higher food and housing prices. Inflation is set to accelerate to 1.7% y/y in July-August, while core inflation remains much lower, posing a dilemma for the Bank of Israel. The MPC is more likely to rema...

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Starting low
RUSSIA POLITICS - Report 16 Jul 2018
Putin’s approval rates have been negatively impacted by the pension system reform discussion that started shortly after the new government was formed. A proposal to increase the retirement age precipitated a sharp negative reaction among the general public. Alth...

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18 July prevented me from writing a monthly
TURKEY - In Brief 15 Jul 2018
GlobalSource Partners Turkey team has sent its Weekly Reporton vacation until end of August and canceled its joint Monthly, not because we ran out oftopics to cover, but because the fast pace of events require more frequent and narrowly-focused analysis. As far ...

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New structures, old challenges
TURKEY - Report 15 Jul 2018
The new economy czar Mr. Albayrak made his first remarks on the economy, which were encouraging, but lacked specificity. Needless to say, delivery and implementation will be the key, which, to say the least, is an extremely challenging mission to fulfill under t...