GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

The Bank of Israel will announce its interest-rate decision tomorrow. The decision appears finely balanced, although our view remains that the Bank is more likely to wait rather than cut rates. The August CPI is forecast to rise by a relatively high 0.8%, followed by a 0.2% decline in September. ...

Peru: Fujimori to face her first political challenge

PERU · In Brief · 31 Aug 2026

Last Friday, the Fujimori government approved at its Cabinet meeting the delegated legislative faculties request from Congress; and the 2027 budget. Both have to be approved by Congress' lower house where Fujimori's political party, Fuerza Popular (FP), has a minority. According to the latest est...

Electoral considerations drive the Lula-Alcolumbre alliance and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 Aug 2026

Congress will hold a concentrated legislative session this week. The agenda includes several bills and proposals of interest to the government: the elimination of the “small-package tax,” the end of the 6-on/1-off work schedule, critical minerals policy, Redata, and the Public Security Constituti...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 31 Aug 2026

WHAT HAUNTS LULA IS THE DREAM OVER? - Just over one month before the election, the undefined picture is beginning to take shape, albeit still incipiently. Lula, whose government rejection rate is similar to its approval rate, is moving farther away from a fourth term; his best chance would be ...

Net Exports Drive Q2 Growth

TURKEY · Report · 31 Aug 2026

The Turkish economy grew by 2.3% y/y and 1.1% q/q in the second quarter of the year, slightly down and considerably up from the previous quarter, respectively. As usual, we focus on the quarterly (sequential) growth rates here to better gauge the cyclical state of the economy. The strong Q2 grow...

The deadline for RRF (and cohesion funds) conditionality expires today

HUNGARY · In Brief · 31 Aug 2026

At stake is €16.4bn, of which RRF is €10bn, two-thirds in grants and the rest in loans. All conditions are to be met and all utilisation of the RRF needs to be completed by the close of play tonight, or else the RRF funds will be partially or fully lost for Hungary.Earlier today, Minister of Tran...

Politics: Rocha Moya and the conflict at the top of Morena and the 4T as a whole

MEXICO · Report · 31 Aug 2026

Rubén Rocha Moya's abrupt and short-lived return to Sinaloa's governorship, followed within 33 hours by a second, indefinite leave of absence, exposed a serious rift at the top of Morena over who truly controls the movement — Claudia Sheinbaum or her predecessor's inner circle. Rocha Moya's decis...

A week of concentrated legislative effort in Congress, President Lula to have dinner with business leaders and bankers tonight, and five polls should be released this week

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 Aug 2026

This will be a week of concentrated legislative effort in Congress, with several bills of interest to the administration on the agenda, including the repeal of the “small-package tax,” the end of the 6-on/1-off work schedule, critical minerals policy, Redata (tax incentives), and the Public Secur...

Wanted: stronger forward guidance

PHILIPPINES · Report · 31 Aug 2026

The BSP’s 25-basis-point rate hike last Thursday was a step in the right direction, but the market’s reaction suggests that the message may not have been strong enough. The peso weakened further, while the real policy rate remains negative at about -1.2 percent against July inflation of 6.2 perce...

Economics: Mexico's August data shows a rebound in some sectors but it won't translate into lasting growth

MEXICO · Report · 31 Aug 2026

Mexico's economic indicators released in August showed a partial rebound: private consumption grew 2.6% YoY in May and gross fixed investment rose 2.4%, following twenty consecutive months of decline, while June's IGAE advanced 1.7% annually, and revised second-quarter GDP came in with 1.9% annua...

GULF WEEKLY: US sanctions underwhelm, MBS visits France, Bahrain posts weak Q1 GDP

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 28 Aug 2026

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * There were doubts about the effectiveness of new US sanctions on Iran and threats from Iran. * The shift to sanctions and the return of diplomats to US embassies eased the risk of strikes. * Two tankers were hit in Hormuz...

Capital flow difficulties

INDIA · Report · 28 Aug 2026

The Indian macroeconomic landscape has experienced a deceleration in net foreign capital inflows over the past decade. While market commentary frequently highlights nominal quarterly portfolio exits exceeding Rs.1 trillion (USD 11.11 billion), recent empirical work demonstrates that these flows r...

President Lula was interviewed by Jornal Nacional, free electoral advertising on radio and TV begins today and will run through October 1, and next week will be the last week of concentrated legislative activity before the elections

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Aug 2026

President Lula’s (PT) interview on Jornal Nacional was marked by a more cordial tone from journalists César Tralli and Renata Vasconcellos compared with their interviews of the other candidates (Romeu Zema, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos). Nevertheless, Lula struggled during the interview. Free...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Tajikistan's high-octane growth bet

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 28 Aug 2026

Continuing in the vein of my analyses of medium-term frameworks, I follow on the Uzbekistan's 2027-2029 Fiscal Strategy and now dissect the medium-term macroeconomic framework presented by the Tajik government on Jul 29. Without a doubt, it comes across as an ambitious high-growth scenario cente...

South Africa’s economy: stronger fundamentals, tougher headwinds

SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 28 Aug 2026

Summary and assumptions: South Africa’s growth: The South African economy maintained its growth momentum into the start of 2026, extending the recovery that began in 2025. Despite a more challenging global environment, the country's improving macroeconomic fundamentals continued to provide sup...