GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The US and Israel are reportedly considering renewed strikes on Iran after the midterms. * Iran threatened it would respond with attacks on Gulf infrastructure. Brent crude has risen to $114. * The Houthis tightened their...

Ahead of the 30 October Webinar: Budget Passed, Consolidation in Doubt, November Hike

CZECHIA · In Brief · 23 Oct 2026

By Artur Radziwill and Jan HagemejerThere will be plenty to discuss at our launch webinar on 30 October, following the municipal and Senate elections and yesterday's critical budget vote, and ahead of the central bank's rate decision on 5 November. The 2027 budget cleared its first reading late o...

Flávio Bolsonaro’s lead in the runoff has been narrowing, both campaigns signed a waiver at the TSE to disclose their confidential records, and the runoff will be held this Sunday, October 25

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Oct 2026

The three polls released yesterday (October 22) all point in the same direction: Flávio remains numerically ahead in every poll, but his lead has been narrowing, while Lula’s rejection rate has declined. This is an election that will be decided by the details: turnout, undecided voters, and perfo...

Pre-election political update - October 23, 2026: Eisenkot gains momentum but remains short of 61 seats; markets expected to react modestly

ISRAEL · Report · 23 Oct 2026

The latest polls show growing momentum for Eisenkot's bloc, but neither Zionist bloc is projected to reach the 61 seats needed to form a government without including Arab parties in the coalition. Our analysis of previous elections suggests that pre-election polls have been relatively accurate in...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: From handshakes to hard cash

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 23 Oct 2026

Marco Rubio’s visit to Uzbekistan and the C5+1 ministerial in Samarkand have brought renewed attention to Central Asia’s efforts to attract Western investment. Yet the economic significance of this opening depends less on the nationality of investors than on the financing, commercial arrangements...

Kazakhstan macro: Budget revenues to rely on the performance of a few key sectors

KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 22 Oct 2026

According to the Bureau of Economic Statistics, Kazakhstan’s economic growth slowed this year, with GDP rising 4.1% y-o-y in 1H26 and the short-term indicator of monthly economic activity up 4.8% y-o-y in 9M26 — both weaker than in 2025. However, given that economic statistics are neither fully a...

MPC cuts the policy rate by 100 bps, signals more to come

TURKEY · Report · 22 Oct 2026

The CBRT/MPC lowered the policy rate (one-week repo rate) 100 bps to 36% today, while also adjusting the O/N lending and borrowing rates by equal amounts, in line with the consensus. In the descriptive part of the statement, the Bank now comes across more confident regarding underlying inflati...

The latest polls continue to show Flávio Bolsonaro with a slight advantage, Lula invited Flávio to join him at the TSE today to disclose their confidential records, and Lula is using the presidency in his favor

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Oct 2026

A Quaest poll released yesterday (Oct. 21) shows a statistical tie with four days to go before the runoff. Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) has 45% of voting intentions, compared with 44% for Lula (PT). Two other polls released yesterday also show Flávio ahead. In the Gerp poll, he has 53% of valid votes, c...

Medium Term Budget Policy Statement showcases fiscal consolidation gaining traction

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 22 Oct 2026

Beyond the infrastructure agenda, the 2026 MTBPS reinforces government's commitment to fiscal consolidation and debt sustainability. The National Treasury confirmed that gross government debt stabilized at 78.4% of GDP in FY2025/26, compared with the 78.9% projected in the February Budget. This r...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary

KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 22 Oct 2026

Oct 8 Finance Ministry: Kazakhstan has earned an Index Watch Positive status after JPMorgan’s 2026 review of its index classification, potentially paving the way for the country’s sovereign bonds to be included in the GBI‑EM index. National nuclear company: The shareholders of Kazatomprom approve...

Panama's earthquake: economic implications and recovery outlook

PANAMA · Report · 22 Oct 2026

Panama’s October 9 earthquake caused significant localized damage, particularly in Los Santos, Herrera and Veraguas. As of October 18, approximately 27,516 people had been reported affected nationwide, with 8,403 homes damaged, including 2,081 classified as total losses. Although aftershocks cont...

Budget blunder

COLOMBIA · In Brief · 21 Oct 2026

Even though Congress approved the 2027 budget before the constitutional deadline (October 20th), a serious procedural mistake was made. The floor of the House approved a proposition that was not considered by the floor of the Senate, a situation that would have required an additional step: delega...

Lula calls on Flávio Bolsonaro to disclose his confidential records, the Federal Police requested more time to investigate Lula’s son, and Lula is expected to sign into the law a bill forgiving debts of MEIs

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Oct 2026

President Lula sharpened his rhetoric in the final stretch of the campaign. Yesterday, Lula said that Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) should only be allowed to take part in the TV Globo debate if he presents a document authorizing the disclosure of his confidential records. The Federal Police (PF) asked th...

An uncertain electoral outlook given Noboa’s hits and misses

ECUADOR · Forecast · 21 Oct 2026

We recognize that President Noboa inherited a complex situation when he assumed his office in 2023. This included an unstable and vulnerable fiscal situation that endangered dollarization and an escalation in violence and organized crime that Ecuador had never before witnessed in its history. ...

No base rate change yesterday, new details revealed on the draft budget

HUNGARY · In Brief · 21 Oct 2026

Yesterday's Monetary Council meeting and Mr. Varga's post-meeting presentation almost became non-events, against the backdrop of the government's simultaneous presentation of the 2027 budget, consisting of an unusually long and detailed parliamentary speech by the Prime Minister two days ago, and...