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Tough and eerie times
TURKEY · Report · 27 Apr 2025

The 6.2 Richter scale tremor that shook Istanbul but caused very minor damage is a stark reminder that we are sitting on a time bomb. There is consensus among seismologists that Istanbul is due for a 7.2-7.4 quake “sometime in the future”. Of course, the question is when. On exact timing, experts...

GULF WEEKLY: IMF/WB revise down GCC forecasts, Adnoc signs Chinese LNG contracts, S&P puts Bahrain on Negative outlook
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 25 Apr 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Chatter that OPEC+ might accelerate its taper because of Kazakh overproduction weighed on oil. * There were some positive vibes regarding US-Iran talks, which will now involve a technical group. * The IMF and World Bank r...

Mexico Macro Monitor: The Global Indicator of Economic Activity shows very weak annual growth (0.5%) as of February
MEXICO · In Brief · 25 Apr 2025

The Global Indicator of Economic Activity shows very weak annual growth (0.5%) as of February, with a 1.0% monthly increase using seasonally adjusted figures The Global Economic Activity Index (IGAE) continued to show weak annual growth in February 2025 (0.5%), after expanding by 0.2% in January ...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 25 Apr 2025

Financial markets were affected by a couple of the most recent important factors in the past few weeks. First of all, investors were looking at macroeconomic statistics in order to get some clarity about the timing of a forthcoming CBR’s rate cut cycle. Recent statistics point to some deceleratio...

Federico Siqueira is the new Minister of Communications, next week will be quiet due to the Labor Day holiday on May 1, and the União Brasil and PP parties will formalize a party federation on April 29
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Apr 2025

President Lula has sworn in Frederico de Siqueira Filho as the new Minister of Communications. He stepped down as president of Telebras to take the position. Next week is expected to be a quiet one in Congress due to the May 1 Labor Day holiday. On Tuesday, April 29, the president of União Brasil...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: CCA public external debt service appears (mostly) manageable over 2025-26
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 25 Apr 2025

I continue exploring the external side of the CCA economies as the more challenging global backdrop in the wake of Trump's tariffs may add to the already worsening CA dynamics that I discussed earlier in Apr. In this report I examine the public external debt profile and debt service for 2025 and...

How much does Argentina's new economic plan differ from the previous one?
ARGENTINA · Report · 25 Apr 2025

Two weeks into Argentina’s new economic plan, which received strong support from the IMF, we have a clearer picture of what we can and cannot expect from it. Three things stand out. First, it is not the third phase of the same plan, as the government claims, but a new plan that was introduced bec...

Non-interest central government cash deficit down in Q1
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Apr 2025

Two days ago, when we released our new quarterly forecast report, we were still unable to give any breakdown of the Q1 cash balance of the central government, because the respective official data had not been published yet. So we could not present how exactly the annualised cash deficit ratio ros...

Mexico Macro Monitor: Inflation rebounds, Banxico should think twice about relaxing monetary policy in May
MEXICO · In Brief · 24 Apr 2025

Annual inflation in the first half of April rebounded due to increases in both core and non-core inflation, erasing the progress made earlier in the year…●Consumer price inflation in the first half of April rose to an annual rate of 3.96%, approaching December 2024's level of 3.99%.●The core infl...

The President of the INSS was dismissed yesterday, Hugo Motta said the income tax bill has “far greater appeal” than the amnesty bill, and Lula may appoint the president of Telebras as the new Minister of Communications
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Apr 2025

The President of the National Institute of Social Security (INSS), Alessandro Stefanutto, was dismissed yesterday, April 23. He had been suspended from his position earlier that same day by a court ruling that imposed a six-month removal following a joint operation by the Federal Police and the O...

Pulled from the edge of the cliff
ECUADOR · Report · 23 Apr 2025

The victory on April 13, 2025 of President Daniel Noboa over Luisa Gonzalez by approximately 11 points was unexpected by everyone—including the two candidates. At least 54% of Ecuadorians understood the danger of handing the country over to organized crime. The Electoral Council has yet to offici...

Mexico Macro Monitor: In February 2025, sales services stagnated compared to the previous month, though they continued to post a strong year-over-year growth.
MEXICO · In Brief · 23 Apr 2025

In February 2025, revenues (sales) of private non-financial service providers increased by 5.8% compared to the same month last year but remained unchanged from January (seasonally adjusted figures). This suggests that service sales continue to be an important driver of consumption and economic a...

Mexico Macro Monitor: In February 2025, retail sales continued to grow, though at a slower pace compared to January. Meanwhile, wholesale sales kept declining.
MEXICO · In Brief · 23 Apr 2025

In February 2025, retail sales maintained the growth observed in the previous month, albeit at a slower pace: They rose 1.7% year-over-year (compared to 2.7% in January) and 0.2% month-over-month (seasonally adjusted figures). As a result, the first two months of 2025 saw a cumulative annual incr...

Kazakhstan macro: Economic growth reportedly accelerates as tax collection improves
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 23 Apr 2025

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that the short-term indicator (a monthly proxy of combined economic activity in industry, agriculture, construction, trade, transportation/warehousing, and IT/communications) grew by 8.3% y-o-y in 1Q25. In March alone, its y-o-y growth was even higher (9...

Pedro Lucas declined Lula’s ministerial invitation, Lula will formally present the Public Security PEC today, and the Joint Committee on payroll-deductible loans for workers should be installed today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Apr 2025

The leader of União Brasil in the Lower House, Pedro Lucas (MA), has declined President Lula’s invitation to head the Ministry of Communications. Pedro Lucas’s refusal, in a way, weakens Senate President Alcolumbre, who coordinated the proposed reshuffle. Today President Lula will formally presen...

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