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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Economic growth continues but politics have become even more fragmented
POLAND · Report · 27 Feb 2026

Poland entered 2026 with a favorable near-term macro mix. GDP growth strengthened through 2025, inflation fell back toward the NBP target band, and the 2025 fiscal outcome surprised on the upside. Yet this improvement coincided with deepening political and institutional friction that can constrai...

Short-term strength – but watch out for challenge ahead
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 27 Feb 2026

Costa Rica’s February 1 elections showed that voters favored continuity, as Laura Fernández, presidential candidate of the party aligned with President Rodrigo Chaves, won the race. The implications for the economic outlook will be analyzed in these and subsequent reports. The complexity of turbu...

Sinking popularity
ECUADOR · Report · 27 Feb 2026

When Daniel Noboa launched the referendum in April 2024, his popularity was approximately 75%—the highest among any previous presidents. He maintained a good profile during the first months of his second mandate in 2025 but started to face the problems of a fractured and divided country by the su...

Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments - Weekly report, February 27, 2026
ISRAEL · Report · 27 Feb 2026

This week’s data pointed to a gradually moderating economy, with softer momentum toward the end of 2025, particularly in high-tech and industry. Revenue and industrial data show some deceleration, while the Bank of Israel’s activity index still signals expansion at the start of 2026. Meanwhile, t...

The INSS CPI approved access to Lula’s son’s confidential banking information, the STF resumes adjudication of the payroll tax relief case, and Congress is expected to vote on the public security PEC next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Feb 2026

The government suffered another political setback: the INSS Joint Parliamentary Inquiry Committee (CPMI) approved access to confidential bank, telephone, and tax information of the president’s son, Fábio Luís Lula da Silva, known as "Lulinha". The session was marked by clashes between government ...

Navigating oil and FX volatility - Slide presentation and webinar replay
KAZAKHSTAN · Presentation · 27 Feb 2026

How will tax reform impact Kazakhstan's economy and budget? What trends in currencies are impacting the tenge amid an evolving global landscape? Will the Central Bank's monetary policy be effective at controlling interest rates? What's ahead for the country's macroeconomic prospects in 2026? ...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Armenia—is the diamond trade making a comeback?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 27 Feb 2026

I have over the last couple of years liked to compare the economic performance of Armenia and Georgia. My pithy conclusion has been that the soaring GDP growth that averaged 10 percent annually in 2022 and 2023 in both countries reflected similar underlying reasons related to the favorable effect...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 26 Feb 2026

Feb 13 World Bank: The Bank is ready to provide financing up to $1bln per year for projects in Kazakhstan in 2026-2031. National railways: IPO of Kazakhstan Railways may take place in May. KMG: The company increased oil and gas condensate production by 10% in 2025. US Embassy: The US is working w...

More than meets the eye
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Feb 2026

Although the presumed increase in productivity associated with the application of AI is often quoted as reason for a more aggressive stance regarding the definition of US interest rates, there are forces operating in the opposite direction. In particular, as shown both theoretically and empirical...

Budget 2026: from fiscal strain to stabilization and consolidation through growth rather than taxation
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 26 Feb 2026

Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana tabled Budget 2026 in an environment marked by cautious macroeconomic stabilization, ongoing fiscal consolidation, and a more complex political landscape under the Government of National Unity (GNU). Whereas Budget 2025 was shaped by political disagreement and th...

A recent poll reinforced the polarization between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, the administration is now focusing on approving the 6x1 PEC, and the Senate approved new guidelines for the petrochemicals sector
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Feb 2026

An Atlas poll released yesterday, February 25, showed the consolidation of a polarized scenario between President Lula (PT) and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) in the presidential race. In first-round simulations, Lula appears, depending on the scenario, with between 43% and 47% of intended votes....

The Central Bank keeps the monetary policy rate unchanged in March 2026
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 25 Feb 2026

The monetary policy rate will remain at 5.25% per year, according to the Central Bank's decision adopted today. The rate on the permanent liquidity expansion facility (1-day repos) remains at 5.75% per year, while the rate on remunerated deposits (overnight) continues at 4.50% per year. The Centr...

Panama, the U.S., and China: ports as a geopolitical linchpin
PANAMA · Report · 25 Feb 2026

Panama’s takeover of the Balboa and Cristóbal seaports operations marks a geopolitical inflection point in which the ports—more than the Canal itself—have become a strategic lever in U.S.-China competition. Following last week’s Supreme Court ruling that declared unconstitutional the legal framew...

Will Chancellor Merz’s visit change EU policies towards China?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 25 Feb 2026

Special points to highlight in this report: - Economic data releases in China early in the year are usually not comparable because the very important Spring Festival comes at different times in January and February every year. In addition, in a bid to boost consumption, Beijing decreed that t...

The House approved the Redata Bill and the Anti-Gang Bill, the STF will review the injunction issued by Justice Dino on public-sector salaries, and government leaders met yesterday to discuss the salary “perks” issue
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Feb 2026

The Lower House approved yesterday, February 24, the Redata bill (PL 278/26), which establishes a Special Tax Regime for Data Center Services. The measure reduces the tax burden on the deployment and modernization chain of data processing centers in the country. The House also approved the Anti-G...

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