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Late last night, the Constitutional Court issued a partial approval for Guillermo Lasso's impeachment accepting jugdgement for bribery and rejecting the charge of concussion. This ruling does not make the President's situation any easier. The ball is again in the Assembly's field in this is wha...

Haddad discusses the details of the new fiscal framework, and former President Jair Bolsonaro returns to Brazil after three months in the United States

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Mar 2023

The Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, has a meeting this morning with the President of the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), to present the new fiscal framework. Then, along with the economic team, he will participate in a press conference to discuss the details of the framework. The text wil...

China decoupling and “Altasia”

CHINA · Report · 30 Mar 2023

The economy was still on a recovery track in January-February, but a slow one. Industrial output rose 2.4% y/y, up 1.1 pps from December 2022. The seasonally adjusted m/m growth rate was weak. Investment rose 5.5% y/y, up 0.4 pps from last year, driven mainly by infrastructure investment with a g...

Decent economic performance in February, inflation low in March

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 30 Mar 2023

Rosstat reported that the output of the five basic sectors was down y-o-y by 2.2% in 2M22 and 1.8% in February. The industry was down by 2.0% and 1.7% for the same periods (also y-o-y). Note that February 2023 had fewer working days than February 2022. Hence, seasonally adjusted (by Rosstat) indu...

Russian prisons offer inmates to work in defense industry

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Mar 2023

On March 29 this was reported in the Kommersant newspaper. The prisoners will work for Rostec which is a state owned military manufacturer. The head of Rostec is rumored to be a friend of Putin.The prisoners will not make missiles or aircraft because they do not have the skills. But they can work...

Armenia and Turkey reopen their border

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Mar 2023

On March 24 Armenia said that the land order will open for the first time since 1993. At first only diplomats and people who are neither Turkish nor Armenian will be allowed to cross. Planes can fly over Armenian airspace to Turkey and vice versa. However, there are no direct flights between thes...

The first nickel IPO

INDONESIA · Report · 30 Mar 2023

An Indonesian nickel company, PT Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk, is set for an initial public offering in April 2023. This will be the first Indonesian nickel company to go public, and it will certainly mark a milestone for the Indonesian Stock Exchange ever since the fanfare about the rise of the n...

IAEA chief in Ukraine

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Mar 2023

On March 29 the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) visited Zaporizhzhia. This is the largest nuclear power station in Europe. Russia controls it. The IAEA boss Rafael Grossi met Zelensky on March 27. Grossi has repeatedly warned that Zaporizhzhia could be the scene of a nuclea...

Major foreign grain exporter to stop buying Russian grain

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Mar 2023

On March 29 Cargill Russia announced that on July 1, 2023, it will cease the export of grain. Cargill is a major world agricultural commodity trader. The company has informed the Russian Ministry of Agriculture. Cargill is due to export 2.2 million tons of grains by July 2023. That is 4% of Russi...

The new fiscal framework may be presented this week, and the conflict in Congress regarding provisional measures continues

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Mar 2023

In a nod to Congress, Lula may ask Haddad to present the text of the new fiscal framework again to the president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), and of the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), in addition to party leaders. In other words, the matter will not necessarily be announced this week. It...

Interest rates unchanged, ending off-market sales of FX to energy importers announced today

HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Mar 2023

There was no surprise at today's rate-setting Monetary Council meeting: all interest rates, including the 18% sterilisation rate, the 13% base rate and the 12.5-25% interest rate corridor remained unchanged, as expected (see chart below). Yet an important change of policy was announced: the selli...

Decisive battle over Ukrainian south looms

UKRAINE · Report · 28 Mar 2023

The Russians failed to seize Bakhmut, despite the huge efforts they devoted to taking the town. The goal of Ukrainian forces was to exhaust the Russians as much as possible before the spring counter-offensive started. Sitting in defense in Bakhmut was a good position for the Ukrainian Army to cau...

Russia prepares new mobilization

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Mar 2023

Russia and the foreign media have reported since March 18 increasing signs of a call-up of military-aged men. In Udmurtia Region the Governor went on TV to convince people that no one will be conscripted but he asked men to volunteer ''to defend the Fatherland.'' In 2022 the conscription and the ...

Lasso's Situation Gets More Complicated

ECUADOR · In Brief · 27 Mar 2023

As expected, the Assembly submitted to the Constitutional Court the petition to initiate an impeachment of President Lasso. This petition is based on the report presented by an ad-hoc legislative commission dominated by the opposition, in which Lasso was accused virtually of everything the Const...

A lull in the storm

ISRAEL · In Brief · 27 Mar 2023

Netanyahu announced on March 26 that the legislation (second and third Parliamentary votes) geared towards changing the judicial system will be postponed until the summer Parliament session in order to try to reach a broadly acceptable compromise. The opposition generally supported this move (alt...