GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

The external backdrop was complicated by two important developments that affected short-term interest rates and, more importantly, long-term rates. First, the continuation of the conflict in the Persian Gulf, far more persistent than expected. Although it is in the economic interest of both si...

Economics: The 2027 Economic Package shows the same public finance trends and problems as 2018-2026

MEXICO · Report · 14 Sep 2026

The 2027 Economic Package presented by the SHCP on September 8 implies that public finances will likely continue along the same trajectory they have followed since 2018. In that regard, it is worth recalling that tax revenue grew steadily thanks to more aggressive income tax enforcement and lower...

Weekly report, September 14, 2026: August CPI in focus, fiscal position remains strong, political deadlock persists

ISRAEL · Report · 14 Sep 2026

The main focus this week is the August CPI, which we expect to rise by 0.8% m/m, lifting annual inflation to around 1.7%. A higher-than-expected reading, particularly above 0.8%-0.9%, together with higher oil prices and increased geopolitical uncertainty, could shift the Bank of Israel’s relative...

Politics: Morena's legislative agenda for the new legislative period — between U.S. demands and electoral strategy

MEXICO · Report · 14 Sep 2026

The congressional session that opened on September 1 clearly reflects the Sheinbaum government's dual agenda ahead of the 2027 midterm and gubernatorial elections. Of the 31 items originally proposed by Morena's legislators, the Office of the Legal Counsel to the Presidency narrowed the agenda to...

Economic growth looks stable in August as domestic demand remains strong

KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 14 Sep 2026

The Bureau of National Statistics has begun releasing monthly economic data for August, showing that growth is gradually picking up. Retail trade rose by 4.5% y-o-y in 8M26, with August alone posting a 6.3% increase. In 7M26 and 1H26, growth stood at 4.1% and 3.8% respectively, marking a steady a...

A difficult runoff for Lula and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Sep 2026

The Supreme Federal Court (STF) will decide whether to investigate Justice Alexandre de Moraes based on a Federal Police report pointing to an alleged connection between him and former banker Daniel Vorcaro, who is currently in custody. On the economic front, attention will focus on the Central B...

NABEP: Washington and Caracas’ oil bet

VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Sep 2026

The U.S.-Venezuela agreement centered on North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP) seeks to turn the revival of Venezuela’s oil industry into a quick political success for both governments. President Trump’s political objectives are the main driver and cornerstone of the agreement: it could ...

The STF will hold a session next week on whether to investigate Justice Moraes, the Central Bank is expected to reduce the interest rate to 13.75%, and 11 polls will be published this week

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Sep 2026

The Supreme Federal Court (STF) will begin deliberations tomorrow morning, Tuesday (Sep. 15), on whether to open an investigation into Justice Alexandre de Moraes based on a Federal Police report pointing to an alleged connection between the justice and former banker Daniel Vorcaro, who is curren...

August CPI in focus as higher oil prices increase inflation risks

ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Sep 2026

The Israeli economy was largely idle on Sunday for Rosh Hashanah (financial markets are always closed on Sundays), while the external environment deteriorated over the holiday period. Houthi advances near Bab el-Mandeb and attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz p...

Read my lips, says our politics man

TURKEY · Report · 13 Sep 2026

Early elections has become the number one topic of Turkish social media pundits, which is finding some support among market participants, too. Turkey will hold early elections, but no earlier than 2Q2028, our politics author maintains. The first essay thus explains why arranging early elections i...

Q2 GDP beats Q1, but H2 outlook darkens as air strikes intensify

UKRAINE · In Brief · 13 Sep 2026

Ukraine's GDP growth accelerated to 0.4% y/y in Q2 2026, according to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine — revised down from the preliminary estimate of +0.6% y/y. This follows a 0.6% y/y contraction in Q1 2026. The improvement was driven mainly by a smaller negative contribution from net ex...

GULF WEEKLY: Houthis capture Bab al-Mandeb, Saudi oil production falls, Qatar’s deficit spikes and Fitch applies a negative outlook

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 11 Sep 2026 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * US-Iran clashes intensified, including the US sinking or disabling 8 Iranian tankers and Iran striking several tankers and other vessels. * The Houthis made a dramatic advance, capturing the west coast of Yemen to the Bab ...

Shake-up at the Central Bank

INDONESIA · Report · 11 Sep 2026

The Central Bank of Indonesia experienced a major shake-up. Former Bank Indonesia Governor, Perry Warjiyo, who made a serious effort to be independent, at last had to submit his resignation letter to the President. He was replaced by his Senior Deputy Governor Destry Damayanti. Aida S. Budiman, f...

Flávio Bolsonaro is numerically ahead of Lula in the latest polls on the runoff, the STF will hold a session next week on whether to investigate Justice Moraes, and the Central Bank is expected to reduce the interest rate to 13.75% next week

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Sep 2026

Two polls released yesterday, one by PoderData and another by AtlasIntel, showed Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) numerically ahead of Lula in hypothetical runoff matchups. In the PoderData poll, the result is 47% to 45%. In the AtlasIntel poll, it is 46.4% to 46.2%. The main focus next week will be the Sup...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Too hot to handle? Mapping overheating risks in Eurasia

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 11 Sep 2026

Evaluating the medium-term government programs in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan has brought into sharper focus the very high growth rates in these economies, with neighboring Kyrgyzstan comfortably beating even those ambitious 7-8% plus growth projections. A question that I have posed for myself in r...