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UPCOMING WEBINAR: LATAM 2022 OUTLOOK - BRAZIL, CHILE, COLOMBIA, MEXICO...

Country Insights

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Russia grabbing the headlines, but tapering matters more
UKRAINE - Report 30 Nov 2021
Ukraine’s economy is performing below expectations, with a disappointing 2.4% of GDP y/y growth in Q3 despite a historically bumper grain crop. To large extent, this is due to postponed harvesting, and there should be a proper upsurge in agroproduction—and GDP growth—in Q4. Still, good harvests a...

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​Omicron and the Gulf: The hit to oil is fiscally manageable, as are health risks
GULF COUNTRIES - Report 30 Nov 2021
The emergence of yet another worrying Covid variant has raised concerns in the Gulf, as it has globally. No cases have been identified in the region yet, but its international connectivity, including as a hub for travel from Africa, does present vulnerabilities, as has been the case for previous ...

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Another interest rate step from the MNB: the corridor was raised today
HUNGARY - In Brief 30 Nov 2021
In a brief statement today, the MNB said that at today's meeting, which was not one of its monthly rate-setting meetings by the way, the Monetary Council raised the interest rate corridor significantly and made it asymmetrical. The base rate was left unchanged at 2.1%.The new corridor looks like ...

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Well-organized Chavista minority beats disorganized majority opposition
VENEZUELA - Report 30 Nov 2021
As we had forecast, the Maduro coalition took most of the seats under contention despite its having won a minority of the votes: with only 46% of the votes, it obtained 19 of 24 governorships and 205 of 335 mayorships. More important is what these elections tell the opposition about the relative ...

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Growth composition changes in Q3
TURKEY - Report 30 Nov 2021
Economic activity expanded by 7.4%, y/y, in Q3, down from (a heavily base effect-driven) 22% in Q2, while in calendar- and seasonally-adjusted terms, GDP growth quickened to 2.7%, q/q, from 1.5% (revised up from 0.9%) in Q2.

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The Precatórios PEC will be put to a vote in the CCJ, André Mendonça’s confirmation hearing in the CCJ has been scheduled for Wednesday, and President Bolsonaro joins the PL
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 30 Nov 2021
At 9 a.m., the Constitution and Justice Committee of the Senate should vote on the Court-ordered payments (Precatórios) PEC. Changes to the text can still take place through amendments. Rodrigo Pacheco said that if the CCJ concludes voting on the PEC today, the vote in the plenary may take place ...

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Turkmen President puts his son in charge of oil and gas as the country runs short of food
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 30 Nov 2021
The announcement was made on November 25 in the main government newspaper. Serdar Berdymukhamedov is already the deputy prime minister with responsibility for economic affairs. He is in the Turkmen Parliament. His latest appointment is yet another sign that Serdar is his father's heir. Serdar is ...

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Ukraine de-oligarchization
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 30 Nov 2021
On November 24 the cabinet passed a 20-point plan to implement the law on oligarchs. It is also reforming the judicial system. The objective is a diminution of oligarchic influence in politics. The National Security and Defense Council shall create a registry of oligarchs. The National Council on...

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The Tax Reform passed under the authority of the law
ECUADOR - In Brief 29 Nov 2021
Ironically, it was the UNES party that allowed the tax reform to become an effective bill, to be applied next January. The bill passed by the authority of the law without changes since legislators could not reach an agreement either for its approval, its rejection or its archival. Legislators who...

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Economics: November data shows further slowing as the country faces new inflation pressures
MEXICO - Report 29 Nov 2021
In recent months indicators have been reflecting a slowing of economic activity relative to the first half of this year, a scenario we had long incorporated into our GDP estimate for full-year 2021. The news published in November only added to that picture. In many respects economic activity c...

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Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 29 Nov 2021
​The recent discovery of a new Covid variant in Africa, called Omicron, has made hopes and plans for a more relaxed and festive holiday season uncertain. The large number of new mutations seems to indicate an increased dissemination pace, although there is no evidence yet of more severe symptoms....

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Exports keep improving
INDONESIA - Report 29 Nov 2021
As predicted, Indonesia saw a small retreat in its economic growth in Q3 2021. The economy reported an increase of 3.51% from the same period in the previous year. Compared to the previous quarter, the Indonesian economy grew by 1.55%. This is the second positive growth rate for the economy since...

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Moro gains traction as a "third candidate" and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 29 Nov 2021
This will be a hectic week in Brasilia. The Senate will continue to discuss the Precatórios PEC. It will also analyze appointments, including that of André Mendonça for the STF. The STF continues to analyze the constitutionality of the Sanitation Framework. Jair Bolsonaro joins the PL. In the eco...

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Energy shortage in Central Asia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 29 Nov 2021
The five former Soviet republics in the region are facing a paucity of energy in winter. Kazakhstan is the largest in area and Uzbekistan is the largest in population. Only the west of Kazakhstan is contending with an energy shortage although ironically that is the oil and gas rich region.On Octo...

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Politics: Progressive militarization – a risk to democracy
MEXICO - Report 29 Nov 2021
There has been growing concern in Mexico over the increasing role of the military in the country’s political life. While in recent decades the military has been called on to play a role in the fight against drug trafficking, historically the army has been politically neutral and its functions lim...