GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

By Artur Radziwill and Jan HagemejerThis note follows our in-briefs of the past fortnight and the discussion at the webinar, and is written after reviewing the minutes of the 5 November meeting and the autumn Monetary Policy Report, both published today. Its purpose is to set out at more length w...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil production rebounds, Oman’s surplus widens while Qatar’s deficit grows, Abu Dhabi records GCC’s highest inflation

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 13 Nov 2026

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Iran fired drones at Bahrain for the first time since September, in response to several US strikes. * Qatar’s PM met with Trump for mediation. Vance is reportedly considering direct talks with Rezaei. * The Houthis have r...

The fiscal plan looks positive for investors

HUNGARY · Report · 13 Nov 2026

The key story of the past few weeks has been the presentation of the government’s budget plan for 2027, with a macroeconomic framework running through 2030. This plan includes an ambitious reduction of the deficit ratio as soon as next year, and a similarly ambitious income policy that focuses he...

Political update - November 13, 2026: The Eisenkot-led change bloc controls the Knesset, Netanyahu remains in power. A new government is still far off

ISRAEL · Report · 13 Nov 2026

The new Knesset was sworn in this week, creating an unusual situation: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remains at the head of the caretaker government, while the change bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot controls a parliamentary majority of 67 seats. Even though a new government has yet to be formed, th...

Better than expectation

INDONESIA · Report · 13 Nov 2026

Economists had forecast a slower expansion for Q3 2026, with the rate of growth of Indonesia's economy at 5.2% Y/Y. However, the result came in beyond expectations, at 5.47%. The growth spike was primarily driven by the manufacturing sector, which expanded by 5.87%. This growth rate was very much...

The Senate approved the government’s fiscal adjustment package, Justice Dino issued a preliminary injunction regarding the end of the 6x1 workweek, and Lula returns on Monday following COP31 and the ASEAN summit

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Nov 2026

Yesterday (Nov. 12), the Senate approved the main text of the government’s fiscal adjustment package by 45 votes to 31. Four amendments remain to be considered. Senate President Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP) scheduled the continuation of the vote for next Tuesday. Yesterday afternoon (Nov. 12), Supr...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Armenia — Can politics break the dram’s stride?

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 13 Nov 2026

One could be forgiven for not knowing that the Armenian dram has been the second-best-performing EM currency globally in the last decade, trailing only another potentially obscure candidate, the Albanian lek. Even if the better part of that dram appreciation occurred around the 2022 episode of ac...

Implications of the US midterms for the GCC

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 12 Nov 2026

An analysis of what the Democratic sweep of Congress in the November 3 midterms means for the Gulf. * A resounding result. The Democrats took both chambers of Congress on Nov 3 with as many as 56 Senate seats and around 260 in the House, the largest midterm margin since 1974. The new Congress ...

Kazakhstan macro: Economic statistics still look puzzling

KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 12 Nov 2026

Recent economic data shows a gradual slowdown in Kazakhstan’s growth, which seems natural y-o-y after last year’s remarkable surge in the second half. While some easing was anticipated, the extra drag on GDP from disrupted oil exports this year was harder to foresee. Even so, the forecast of arou...

A bit too sanguine, a bit too soon

TURKEY · Report · 12 Nov 2026

The CBRT released its fourth and final Inflation Report of the year today. The Bank raised its end-2026 inflation forecast from 28% in the previous report --and 28.4% in the Medium-Term Program (MTP)-- to 29.5%. As we’ve expected, the CBRT also brought its inflation forecasts for 2027 and 2028 in...

The Senate floor should vote on the fiscal adjustment package, the Finance Ministry stated that Tax Reform will remain on schedule, and the crisis at the Federal Police regarding the Banco Master case continues

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Nov 2026

The Senate floor is expected to vote today on Complementary Bill (PLP) 299/2026. The bill was introduced by Jaques Wagner and is being reported by Eduardo Braga, who is also the rapporteur for the 2027 Budget. The fiscal adjustment proposal allows the government to impose spending freezes aimed a...

Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Nov 2026

The ruble slipped slightly at the start of November following Minfin’s announcement to ramp up hard currency purchases for the National Wealth Fund under the fiscal rule. Authorities plan to spend R15.6 bln in November (the highest since 2026), compared to R12.7 bln in October. These operations c...

Four shocks and a funeral

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Nov 2026

The Minutes of last week´s Copom meeting reinforces the mismatch between the diagnosis of the inflation outlook and the monetary policy reaction, which was already present in the statement released back then. Anticipating the conclusion, even though BCB correctly perceives the deterioration of th...

The government postponed the decree ending the 6x1 work schedule, Justice Edson Fachin closed the fake news investigation yesterday, and Kassab said PSD support for the government depends on fiscal adjustment

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Nov 2026

The government has postponed until next week the decree regulating the end of the six-days-on, one-day-off (6x1) work schedule. The text was expected to be issued yesterday (Nov. 9), but President Lula, who traveled to Turkey for the UN Climate Change Conference (COP31), wants to sign it at a cer...

CPI-inflation up in October, largely in line with expectation

HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Nov 2026 · 1 response

The headline rate was 0.4% mom, 2% yoy, the latter up from 1.6% yoy in September. Core inflation rose to 2.1% yoy, non-fuel inflation ascended to 1.6% yoy, both up two decimal points from their readings in the previous month. Fuel prices rose by 3% mom, 11.3% yoy, up 9% over the past two months, ...