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Fitch Ratings' outlook on their BBB sovereign rating went from Stable to Negative yesterday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Dec 2025

Fitch Ratings held the H2 review of their Hungary sovereign rating yesterday, also ending the late-in-the-year review season for the Top-3 rating agencies as regards 2025. The agency affirmed the government's BBB rating, but changed the outlook to Negative from Stable on this occasion:Fitch attri...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi budget, PMIs rise, UAE Q3 surplus, Bahrain’s CDS spreads spike
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 05 Dec 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+’s capacity audit will mainly be done by US firm D&M, bar sanctioned countries. * The budgeted Saudi spending cuts are mainly in capex and use of goods and services. * The finance minister reaffirmed an openness to ...

No property bailouts in China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 05 Dec 2025

Ever since property prices began to collapse in 2021 following Beijing’s draconian Three Red Lines policy limiting bank loans in 2020, the markets have been expecting a central government bailout of the property market. Instead, we have seen drips and drabs of help, mostly for individual projects...

Congress approved the Budget Guidelines Bill, the House will discuss creating a committee on Tax Reform, and discussions continue on the impeachment procedure for Supreme Court justices
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Dec 2025

Congress completed yesterday the approval of the 2026 Budget Guidelines Bill (PLDO), which now includes a schedule for the payment of parliamentary amendments — a key demand from lawmakers ahead of next year’s elections. In the Lower House, President Hugo Motta (Republicanos–PB) is expected to me...

Nov CCA highlights: Armenia/Georgia keep policy rates unchanged, while Kyrgyzstan hikes and Tajikistan eases, Azerbaijan looks to ramp up oil/gas production from 2029, Georgia/Uzbekistan see sovereign outlook improvements
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 05 Dec 2025

For a while, I have skipped the more mundane monthly publication of the key economic/political/geopolitical events in the CCA as more pressing writing issues have kept my pen occupied. The Nov summary rectifies this lapse, and, for the first time, adds Kyrgyzstan to the rest of the usually covere...

Economic performance looked better in October, with more challenges ahead amid appreciating ruble
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 05 Dec 2025

Recently published statistics indicated that October saw a kind of a moderate upturn as the short-term indicator grew by 2.9% y-o-y that month. The 10M25 tally grew by 1.1% (up from 0.9% in 9M25). This kind of moderate improvement was widespread across key segments of the economy. We previously m...

South Africa’s current account deficit declines in Q3-2025
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 04 Dec 2025

Current account data released by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) today indicates that, in the third quarter of 2025, the deficit on South Africa’s current account narrowed from R72.2 billion in the second quarter to R57 billion. Relative to GDP, the current account deficit narrowed from 1% ...

Easy does it
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Dec 2025

Brazil’s GDP grew 0.1% in the third quarter, slightly below median forecasts (0.2%). While household consumption also increased 0.1%, both government consumption (1.3%) and investment (0.9%) performed better, resulting in a 0.4% increase in domestic demand—which accelerated compared to the second...

Justice Gilmar’s decision has raised tensions between the branches of government, the STF reviews the Eletrobras case, and the truckers’ strike should be timid
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Dec 2025

A new clash between the Supreme Federal Court (STF) and Congress has heightened institutional tensions. Justice Gilmar Mendes, in a single-justice decision, ruled that only the Prosecutor General may file criminal charges against an STF justice. He also determined that the impeachment of a justic...

A reform blitz? Separating the signal from the noise
INDIA · Report · 04 Dec 2025

In recent months, the union government has reformed the Goods and Services Tax (GST), operationalized the long-awaited Labor Codes, set the date for the implementation of the Digital Personal Data Protection (DPDP) Rules, and rescinded several Quality Control Orders (QCOs). This flurry of activit...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 03 Dec 2025

The key event on the fixed income market was the placement of the debut OFZs nominated in CNY. Two tranches were issued with maturity in 2029 and 2033 totaling CNY20 bln. According to Minfin, the main purpose of this exercise was the refinancing of Russia-25 Sovereign Eurobonds, which matured on ...

Russian macro: Watch the exchange rate—nothing else matters (so far)
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Dec 2025

Over a decade ago, when the oil price bounced back after the 2008 crisis and remained above $100/bbl for some time after, the Russian economy grew fast enough (4.0% in 2012, for instance). Economic growth was also fueled by rapidly expanding household credit, while an overly strong ruble caused i...

Hungary's supply of Russian crude oil is not affected by recent Ukrainian hit at the Druzhba pipeline
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Dec 2025

On December 1, Ukraine hit the Druzhba oil pipeline system once again, causing an explosion and another break in the continuity of oil shipments. Subsequently, reports like the following one have appeared in the media:However, this does not appear to be correct. As widely known, Druzhba indeed tr...

The Planalto Palace has secured more time for Messias’s confirmation hearing, the Senate approved the bill that taxes fintechs, and the House approved the environmental licensing bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Dec 2025

The government’s maneuver worked, and the Planalto Palace secured more time for Jorge Messias’s confirmation hearing for the Supreme Federal Court (STF). Initially, the president of Congress, Davi Alcolumbre (União–AP), had scheduled the hearing for December 10. But because President Lula did not...

Some good, some not-so-good news
TURKEY · Report · 03 Dec 2025

Monthly consumer price inflation surprised to the downside in November, coming in at around 0.9%, m/m, compared with a consensus forecast of around 1.3% (including ours). The 12-month CPI inflation thus declined notably to 31.1%, from 32.9% in October. Producer price inflation was also subdued in...

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