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An economy on farm support
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Mar 2026

There were no surprises this time: GDP growth in the fourth quarter of last year reached 0.1%, slightly above the previous quarter (0.0%, revised from 0.1%), bringing growth in 2025 to 2.3%, compared to 3.4% in 2024. Domestic demand, the main driver of aggregate demand expansion in 2024, showe...

Lula said he might visit the U.S. this month, Lula should meet today with Alckmin and Haddad to discuss the São Paulo gubernatorial race, and the House approved the bill that allows pharmacies in supermarkets
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Mar 2026

Last week, President Lula announced that he might visit the United States during the week of March 15. Following the attacks on Iran, however, there are doubts about that schedule. The conflict between the United States and Iran has become part of the presidential race. Flavio Bolsonaro said the ...

February inflation: not much new or unexpected
TURKEY · Report · 03 Mar 2026

Consumer prices rose by 3% in February, broadly in line with expectations, with the 12-month rate rising to 31.5% from 30.7% in January. Producer prices rose by 2.4% in the month, which meant a modest increase also in the 12-month PPI inflation rate -- to 27.6%, from 27.2% in January. The main...

Economics: US Supreme Court ruling on tariffs—implications for Mexico
MEXICO · Report · 03 Mar 2026

The recent imposition of 15% across-the-board tariffs by President Trump in response to the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling invalidating prior specific tariffs does not affect Mexico as products entering under the USMCA remain exempt, as they previously were from reciprocal tariffs. Consequently, Mex...

Stagflation deepens: Can Argentina find a way out in 2026?
ARGENTINA · Report · 03 Mar 2026

According to the September–October 2025 Survey of Political Satisfaction and Public Opinion conducted by Universidad San Andrés, low wages and limited employment opportunities have become the primary concerns among respondents. Inflation now ranks lower, alongside insecurity, poverty and perceive...

Reporting from under the bus: first estimate of the extra energy cost
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Mar 2026

A few weeks ago, PM Orbán was sincerely hoping that President Trump would spend the first day of March by hopping on AF1 and flying to Budapest, to promote the case of his true friend and loyal ally in the latter's fight for reelection. However, he was thrown under the bus instead, receiving shar...

The second Israel-Iran war: the risks of a prolonged confrontation
ISRAEL · In Brief · 03 Mar 2026

After three days of war, several key facts are beginning to emerge: The Israeli-U.S. opening move appears to be a significant operational success. The combination of prior intelligence and highly precise strikes by both countries resulted in the targeted killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and...

Iran War Day 3: Oil and gas facilities struck, Iran downplays strikes on GCC, US clarifies imminent threat claim
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 02 Mar 2026

This update is going out as Monday comes to a close in the US and the GCC and Iran begin Tuesday morning. US-Iran developments The US says it has struck 1,250 targets so far, including all 11 ships. The Institute for the Study of War's daily updates provide a good analysis of the targeting within...

Politics: The death of “El Mencho” reshapes the Mexican security landscape
MEXICO · Report · 02 Mar 2026

On Sunday, February 22, 2026, the Mexican Army carried out a well-planned operation in Tapalpa, Jalisco (130 km from Guadalajara), with support from US intelligence (JITF-CC), to capture Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, alias "El Mencho," leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG). The kingpin...

The PT goes on the offensive and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Mar 2026

The Lower House may vote on the Public Security constitutional amendment proposal (PEC). In the economy, attention turns to the release of Brazil’s 2025 GDP. On March 6, the party-switching window will open, allowing members of Congress to change parties without risking the loss of their mandates...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Mar 2026

February, an even shorter month due to the Carnival holidays, was marked by heightened tension among the three branches of government, with no indication that the worst is over − meaning more uncertainty and political risks lie ahead. The main source of turbulence stems not only from the progress...

Essential CIS Politics: February 18-March 2, 2026
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 02 Mar 2026

- US-Israeli strikes on Iran pose a major geopolitical challenge to Russia, approximately one year after losing Assad’s Syria. - Belarus calls up reserves in “concealed mobilization”. - UK holds a major summit with Central Asian countries and signs a critical minerals agreement with Kaza...

Activity ends 2025 on a weak note
TURKEY · Report · 02 Mar 2026

The Turkish economy grew by 3.4%, y/y, in the final quarter of 2025, slightly below expectations of 3.6%, and down from 3.8% in Q3. In calendar- and seasonally-adjusted terms, economic activity seems to have lost quite a bit of momentum sequentially, rising at a modest 0.4%, q/q, which, incidenta...

The right’s demonstration drew a smaller crowd than those before Bolsonaro was imprisoned, the House may vote on the Public Security PEC on Wednesday, and the party-switching window opens on Friday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Mar 2026

The demonstration organized by right-wing groups on Sunday (March 1) in several state capitals, dubbed “Wake Up, Brazil,” drew lower turnout compared with rallies held when former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) was not serving his sentence. The largest crowd was recorded on Avenida Paulista in São...

Shadow over Ararat: Strikes on Iran reveal Armenia's strategic vulnerability
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 02 Mar 2026

The aftershocks of the latest round of missile strikes in Iran have been quick to reverberate across the South Caucasus, raising fresh questions about the security, trade routes, and economic resiliency of Armenia. Instability on Armenia’s southern border could rapidly evolve into a structural ch...

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