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BCRD keeps its policy rate at 5.25% per year and projects economic growth between 3.5% and 4.0% in 2026
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 31 Mar 2026

In light of the increased global uncertainty associated with the escalation of the war in the Middle East, the Central Bank decided to keep the policy interest rate unchanged at 5.25% per year. The rate on the permanent liquidity expansion facility (1-day repos) remains at 5.75%, while the rate o...

Essential CIS Politics: March 17-31, 2026
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 31 Mar 2026

Headlines: - Russia begins a spring offensive as Ukraine launches one of its largest strikes yet on Russian oil export infrastructure. - Russia sends a new ultimatum to Ukraine: withdraw from Donbass in two months. - Russia secures a USD 25 bn arms deal with India, as India doubles purcha...

Asymmetric exchange rate flexibility as a path out of stagnation
ARGENTINA · Report · 31 Mar 2026

For Argentina to break out of its current stagnation without triggering a sustained increase in inflation, it needs to adopt an asymmetrically floating exchange rate regime. Asymmetric floating implies allowing the peso to depreciate when demand for dollars rises, while intervening to accumulate ...

Economics: The figures published in March show a slowdown in economic activity and upward pressure on inflation
MEXICO · Report · 31 Mar 2026

Mexico’s March figures reveal a slowdown in economic activity after the optimism sparked by the uptick in growth at the end of 2025. In the fourth quarter of 2025, demand strengthened thanks to a rebound in private consumption and robust export performance, although investment continued to contra...

The PSD selected Governor Caiado as its presidential candidate, President Lula will hold a cabinet meeting, and today is the deadline for Lula to sign into law the bill that increases paternity leave to 20 days by 2029
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 Mar 2026

The PSD has announced Ronaldo Caiado as its candidate for president. Today, Caiado is expected to resign as governor of Goiás. Today, President Lula (PT) will meet with his cabinet. During the meeting, the administration will conduct a review of the Lula III government with the aim of aligning it...

Kazakhstan macro: budget revenues to outperform this year, prompting a possible rise in expenditure
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 31 Mar 2026

We mentioned previously that the republican and local budgets performed well in 2M26, with the former posting a small deficit of about KZT0.1 trln in 2M26, while the full-year deficit was targeted at KZT4.6 trln. This deficit appeared low, not least because expenditures lagged given that about KZ...

Politics: Government-business relationship—the schizophrenia
MEXICO · Report · 30 Mar 2026

Claudia Sheinbaum faces the challenge of turning private investment into a reality to ensure the sustainability of the 4T project, which requires solid and growing public finances to maintain social programs and fund the public works that symbolize the government. The problem stems from the deep ...

BoI holds rates at 4% with a hawkish tone; growth forecasts downgraded; 2026 budget passes with unrealistic assumptions
ISRAEL · In Brief · 30 Mar 2026

Bank of Israel leaves the policy rate at 4%, with a somewhat hawkish statement The Bank of Israel left the policy rate unchanged at 4.0%, in line with expectations, but we felt that the wording of the statement was clearly hawkish. The bank emphasized, as expected, the increase in geopolitical un...

Still betting on an opposition win
COLOMBIA · Report · 30 Mar 2026 · 1 response

The congressional election results are the main source of worry for the political opposition camp in the presidential race. We analyze the percentage increase in votes cast for President Gustavo Petro’s Pacto Histórico candidates in the main cities, responsible for 41% of votes in Colombia. The i...

Popularity vs. elections and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Mar 2026

The pace of work in Brasília will be reduced due to the holiday (Good Friday). It will still be a busy week, with governors stepping down, cabinet reshuffles, and party affiliations. The party-switching window ends on April 3. The deadline for mandatory resignations is April 4. The government may...

Bad moon rising
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 30 Mar 2026

The conflict in the Middle East has significantly altered the balance of risks for inflation; at the same time, the revision of BCB’s forecasts appears insufficient given the current scenario. Upside risks have intensified asymmetrically relative to downside risks. In addition, oil prices are alr...

Managed calm
VENEZUELA · Report · 30 Mar 2026

It is becoming clear that the Trump administration’s primary objective for Venezuela is geopolitical stability. Stabilization is advancing, although not necessarily as a prelude to democratization. What is emerging is a mutually convenient arrangement between Washington and Rodríguez that could b...

There will be reduced activity in Brasília this week due to the holiday, the party-switching window closes on Friday, and the mandatory resignation period ends on Saturday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Mar 2026

The week will see reduced activity in Brasília due to the holiday (Good Friday), with no significant deliberations expected in the plenary sessions of the Lower House or the Senate. Two key dates this week stand out in the electoral calendar. The party-switching window closes on Friday, April 3. ...

Declaration of Energy Emergency: Boon or bane?
PHILIPPINES · Report · 30 Mar 2026

In response to the March 2026 Middle East conflict and subsequent 70% surge in global oil prices, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. issued Executive Order No. 110, declaring a state of national energy emergency. The Order activates the UPLIFT framework, a "whole-of-government" strategy designed to s...

Iran War Days 28–30: Houthis enter the war and Iran strikes aluminum smelters
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 29 Mar 2026

Highlights There was no confirmation of mooted US-Iran peace talks in Pakistan, but growing talk of a ground offensive, as US marines arrived in the region. Yemen’s Houthis entered the war, firing ballistic missiles. Iran destroyed US plans at a Saudi airbase and attacked aluminum smelters in the...

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