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Today, the Lower House and the Senate begin a week of concentrated legislative activity. The voting agenda has yet to be finalized. This morning, Institutional Relations Minister José Guimarães and government leaders in Congress will have breakfast with Finance Minister Dario Durigan in an effort...

Mecca Pact: Face-saver or game-changer?

TURKEY · In Brief · 10 Aug 2026

First, my apologies for posting this Market Brief at this Godawful hour, but my humble dwelling in Istanbul turned into a mini-heat sink frying my brains during the day. The heat wave is a nice segway to jump to the Holy City of Mecca, Saudi Arabia, which is also suffering from it and has recentl...

Weekly report, August 10, 2026: Israel's election campaign heats up; the budget "miracle" continues

ISRAEL · Report · 10 Aug 2026

Key points: Israel's election campaign is advancing ahead of the October 27 election. The latest polls continue to show a highly divided political map. The current coalition, led by Likud together with the ultra-Orthodox and right-wing parties, has around 50 seats. The opposition has around 59...

Lula's strategy pays off and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Aug 2026

The National Congress holds its first concentrated legislative session ahead of the elections. Political parties have until August 15 to register their candidates with the Electoral Court. Electoral campaigning begins the following day. Seven polls on presidential voting intentions and the federa...

Contradictory signals

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Aug 2026

Real wage decline in the second quarter comes in the context of an unemployment rate still near historical lows. This behavior of real income was not driven solely by inflation, which did in fact accelerate in the second quarter, but rather by a sharp slowdown in nominal wages. However, with a ti...

Congress will hold a week of concentrated activity this week, House Speaker Motta will meet with party leaders tomorrow to discuss the agenda, and parties have until Sunday to register their candidates

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Aug 2026

This will be a week of concentrated legislative activity in the Lower House and the Senate. Due to the elections, both chambers have decided to hold only two weeks of congressional activity before the first round, scheduled for October 4. House Speaker Hugo Motta (Republicanos-PB) will meet with ...

Politics: Freedom of expression is at risk under a new initiative

MEXICO · Report · 10 Aug 2026

Mexico's government is advancing Telecommunications Regulatory Commission (CRT) guidelines meant to regulate audience rights under Articles 6 and 7 of the Constitution and the 2025 Telecommunications Law, but the initiative has triggered sharp controversy. Critics argue the rules concentrate exce...

Truly impressive: massive budget surplus reported for July

HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Aug 2026

Well, this is quite brutal: the Finance Ministry reported a preliminary HUF523bn cash surplus for the central budget for July, bringing the cumulative seven-month deficit down to HUF2858bn or an annualised 5.4% of GDP: Indeed, the central budget had surpluses in each of the three months since Tis...

Economics: Mexico's public finances, Pemex and the CFE face mounting risks

MEXICO · Report · 10 Aug 2026

The first half of 2026 reveals a fiscal fragility that the federal government has tried to ignore, and even to portray as evidence that public finances are strengthening. The fiscal deficit barely narrowed, while the primary balance collapsed—evidence that a growing share of debt is being contrac...

Lowest inflation for the last ten years, and its policy consequences

HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Aug 2026

The headline rate of CPI-inflation fell to 1.2% yoy in July, from 1.7% yoy in June, the lowest figure seen since November 2016. This was a great surprise, analysts expected 1.5% yoy. Core inflation decreased by less, to 1.9% yoy from the previous month's 2% yoy, but non-fuel inflation was also do...

NBU Inflation Report: a new narrative — weapons production as the growth story

UKRAINE · In Brief · 07 Aug 2026

The NBU has released a new Inflation Report, which marks a significant shift in tone compared to what we've seen from the central bank previously. The first point relates to the worsened inflation outlook already flagged in the NBU's communications following the Board's decision on the key policy...

GULF WEEKLY: US strikes paused, Iran-Oman near Hormuz terms, UAE posts strong Q1 non-oil GDP

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 07 Aug 2026

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Trump called off a major weekend attack on Iran after intervention from MBS and other Gulf states. * The depletion of US missiles and interceptors may also be a factor limiting US attack plans. * Iran and Oman say they ar...

Investigations into Lula’s son and former aide continue, Minister Boulos will meet with unions to discuss the end of the 6x1 work schedule, and Congress will resume activity next week

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Aug 2026

A meeting with the Ministry of Justice and the Office of the Attorney General has been scheduled to discuss the Federal Police’s autonomy to investigate allegations involving fraud at the INSS, Brazil’s social security agency. The issue has generated significant attention because the investigatio...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Pashinyan’s referendum traps—heads he loses, tails he loses more

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 07 Aug 2026

Armenia’s newly elected National Assembly convened this week following the disputed June 7 vote. As expected, the opposition took its seats, perhaps mindful of the limited gains delivered by the Georgian opposition’s parliamentary boycott. Alongside mounting pressure from Russian trade restric...

Lost horizon

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Aug 2026

Once again, there was no surprise in the decision regarding the target for the Selic rate, which, we believe, may be an important part of the current monetary policy problem. The Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) reduced the benchmark interest rate by 0.25 p.p., to 14% per year, and “understands ...