GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * A Houthi strike on Riyadh airport killed 13, and they also hit Aramco’s HQ in Dhahran. * The Houthis tightened their encirclement of Taiz, Yemen’s third-largest city, and held on to most of the coast. * 12 ships were stru...

The moment of truth is coming

HUNGARY · Forecast · 16 Oct 2026

At present, all eyes seem to be focused on the upcoming budget plan for 2027 and the macro roadmap for 2027-2030, all set to become publicly known next week. Investors will likely see a substantial reduction of the deficit target for next year, but they should not expect a miracle in that regard....

The latest poll shows the race is statistically tied, Lula was interviewed on Jornal Nacional last night, and today Congress will enact the 6x1 proposal

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Oct 2026

Ten days before the runoff, the Datafolha poll released last night (Oct. 15) shows Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) with 51% of valid votes, compared with 49% for Lula (PT). With a two-point margin of error, the race is statistically tied. A week ago, the gap was four points: 52% to 48%. In his interview wi...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: From tech boom to lasting wealth—Armenia vs Georgia

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 16 Oct 2026

The Georgian press enthusiastically reported last week almost US$850mn in ICT export revenues in the first half of the year. This has prompted me to evaluate whether the post-2022 ICT boom has generated lasting gains in GDP, jobs, income and FX earnings, and whether Georgia or Armenia is better p...

Tax revenues behind the overly ambitious plan as economic growth moderated

KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 16 Oct 2026

Recently released economic and budget execution data show that growth remains steady, though slower than in 2025. The Bureau of National Statistics reports that the short-term indicator - a monthly measure of activity across industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, trade, and communic...

September inflation remained low, but the Bank of Israel is likely to keep rates unchanged through year-end

ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Oct 2026

Israel's September CPI declined by 0.5% m/m, below market expectations of a 0.2%–0.4% decline and our forecast of a 0.4% decline. Annual inflation increased slightly from 1.5% in August to 1.6%, mainly due to base effects, while core inflation edged up from 1.3% to 1.4%. Despite these increases, ...

Essential CIS Politics: October 2-15

CIS POLITICS · Report · 15 Oct 2026

Key topics: * The frontline was fluid over the last two weeks, with Russia making gains in Sumy and Kharkiv and encircling Dobropole, while Ukraine advanced near Lyman and south of Pokrovskoe. Russia ended with a net territorial gain of roughly 170 square kilometers amid reported manpower sho...

Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 15 Oct 2026

The sentiment on the local financial markets improved after Mr. Trump announced the “diesel deal” last Friday. Many investors hope that it could be the first step to resume peace negotiations. As a result, bond and equity prices went up. However, the fixed income market saw a limited bounce effec...

The Senate approved the 6x1 proposal, the House approved an increase in the annual revenue threshold for MEIs, and both candidates confirmed they will attend the presidential debate on Sunday

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Oct 2026

The Senate approved the end of the 6x1 work schedule yesterday. The proposal passed in two rounds of voting, both by the same margin: 75 votes in favor and only one against. Senator Hamilton Mourão cast the sole dissenting vote. The Lower House approved, by 461 votes to 4, an increase in the reve...

Kazakhstan macro: Retail sales growth looks steady in 9M26 despite puzzling statistics

KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 14 Oct 2026

Recent publications from the Bureau of National Statistics indicated that in 1H26 GDP grew by 4.1% y-o-y, both on the production side and by end-use. According to official reports, total consumption rose y-o-y by 2.1% in 1H26, with household consumption up 2.0%, suggesting slightly faster growth ...

Why no bazooka stimulus in China?

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 14 Oct 2026

China is continuing to stimulate the economy. But it is using more creative ways to fund growth. Two of the major policy efforts are a new infrastructure program called the "Six Networks", and a targeted increase in bank lending. While it is too early to call if these programs are a sign of panic...

Lula continues efforts to reverse Flávio’s advantage in the election, the government moved forward with efforts to approve the 6x1 proposal, and Lula is expected to issue a letter to evangelical Christians

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Oct 2026

The government continues to pull out all the stops in an effort to reverse the advantage Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) held over Lula in the first round. As a reminder, the gap between the two candidates was 1.87 percentage points of the valid vote. The government has also moved forward with efforts to a...

Economics: Household Spending Survey (ENG) 2025 provides significant findings on health spending and financial outlays

MEXICO · Report · 14 Oct 2026

The ENG 2025 follows household spending day by day over a full year in 28,668 households. It revives the role of the former ENGASTO and addresses the seasonal bias of the ENIGH, which is conducted over only a few months. Its estimates exceed those of the ENIGH by 21.5%, probably because the daily...

IMF raises Israel's 2026 growth forecast to 4.5%

ISRAEL · In Brief · 13 Oct 2026

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its growth forecast for Israel to 4.5% in 2026, up from 3.5% previously. The upward revision appears reasonable given the strong rebound in GDP in the second quarter, where the economy expanded by 15.9% annualized, and given positive economic indic...

Stability: Work in progress

VENEZUELA · Forecast · 13 Oct 2026

Three shocks have shaped 2026. The January 3 rupture unlocked higher oil revenues under U.S. oversight. War in the Middle East drove oil prices higher. And the June 24 earthquakes killed more than 6,500 people and caused an estimated $14.8 billion in losses. The economy is more stable than it was...