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Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 18 Sep 2025

Sep 4 Oil transportation: Russian Rosneft has reached an agreement with Chinese partners to supply an additional 2.5 million tons of oil via Kazakhstan. Parliament: Kazakhstan's parliament approved a law enabling authorities to monitor suspicious money transfers. National pipeline company: In Aug...

Bolsonaro’s health condition has worsened again, the House may vote on the urgent status of the amnesty bill, and the opposition appointed Congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro as minority leader
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Sep 2025

Former President Jair Bolsonaro’s health condition has worsened again, and he was readmitted to the hospital yesterday. There is no expected date for him to be discharged. His health situation is worrying his allies. Today, the Lower House may vote on the urgent status of the amnesty bill. The la...

Slide presentation: And now for something completely different: Brazil
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Presentation · 17 Sep 2025

Is Brazil’s economy overheating? Wages are increasing well above productivity growth and tariffs imposed by the U.S. create new challenges for exports. Will changes to fiscal and monetary policy be able to address the country's challenges? View the slide presentation from our webinar, "And now f...

Ukraine’s 2026 budget: social spending up, election calculations in play
UKRAINE · In Brief · 17 Sep 2025

The Cabinet submitted the draft 2026 spending plan to parliament on September 15th, in accordance with the Budget Code. Central budget revenues are projected at UAH 2.9 trillion (29.1% of GDP), up by UAH 407.5 billion ($9.8 billion) from the current target. State expenditures are set at UAH 4.8 t...

Inflation resurges
VENEZUELA · Report · 16 Sep 2025

Venezuela has entered a new cycle of accelerating inflation. We revise up our exchange rate and inflation forecasts for the period from September 2025 through December 2026. The bolivar’s defense capacity is weakening on low international oil prices, limitations imposed by oil licenses, and a ...

August print analysis: Housing and seasonality pushed inflation up;
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Sep 2025

August’s CPI rose 0.7% m/m slightly above our expectations for 0.6% rise, bringing headline inflation to 2.9% y/y, slightly below the upper bond of the target range of the central bank (1%-3%). The print was a classic summer seasonal reading: Airfares increased 17% and domestic holidays 12%, both...

Governor Tarcísio requested to visit former President Bolsonaro, the opposition is calling for an inquiry into potential irregularities in Bolsonaro’s sentencing, and Motta will meet with party leaders to set the voting agenda
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Sep 2025

Governor Tarcísio de Freitas canceled his trip to Brasília yesterday. Instead, he requested authorization from the Supreme Federal Court (STF) to visit the former president. That meeting is scheduled for September 29. The opposition is now calling for a Joint Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry (C...

Legal steps after Bolsonaro's conviction and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Sep 2025

This week will continue to reflect the trial of former President Jair Bolsonaro, with his allies pushing for a vote on the amnesty bill. The government, meanwhile, is trying to include in Congress’s agenda an income tax exemption for individuals earning up to R$5,000 per month. In the Senate, the...

The other deficit
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 15 Sep 2025

The balance of payments has been marked by a rapid increase in the current account deficit, while the financial account remains relatively stable. Most of the deterioration in the current account stems from rising imports in a context of demand pressures, but there is also a worsening in some ser...

Politics: Scandal puts massive and new forms of fuel theft back in focus
MEXICO · Report · 15 Sep 2025

A new chapter has opened in the saga of Mexico’s history with massive fuel theft. The issue had been before the public for quite some time, when fuel theft, known as huachicol, was considered to be limited to siphoning off massive quantities of gasoline at Pemex pipelines around the country. But ...

Fast-track executive action
ECUADOR · Report · 15 Sep 2025

President Daniel Noboa cannot be accused of procrastination in the past three months. Since he assumed office last May, he has sent three symbolic bills with the character of economic urgency for approval by the legislature: the National Solidarity Bill, the Intelligence Bill and the Public Integ...

Economics: A first glance at the 2026 Economic Package sent to Congress on September 8
MEXICO · Report · 15 Sep 2025 · 1 response

On Monday, September 8, the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) sent the 2026 Economic Package to Congress. It includes the government’s forecasts for the country’s macroeconomic outlook, as well as proposals of revenue, expenditures, and the public sector fiscal deficit, which includes ...

Kazakhstan macro: looking for 2026 budget challenges
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 15 Sep 2025

Despite the nation’s budget performance appearing stable in 7M27, with high inflation and a weaker tenge boosting revenues tied to the exchange rate, some questions remain about the 2025 and 2026 budgets. The republican budget saw its total revenue grow by 12.4% in 7M26, with tax revenue increasi...

The opposition continues to push for an amnesty bill for Bolsonaro, the government is prioritizing the income tax exemption bill, and the House may vote on the Social Electricity Tariff measure for low-income households
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Sep 2025

Following the conviction by the First Panel of the Supreme Federal Court (STF) of former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) and seven other defendants accused of attempting a coup d’état, the opposition is pushing for consideration of a bill granting amnesty to all those accused. The government’s coal...

Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments – Weekly report, September 15, 2025
ISRAEL · Report · 15 Sep 2025

The focal point last week was Israel’s unprecedented strike in Doha against the Hamas leadership. From Israel’s perspective, the operation fell short of its objective, as senior Hamas figures were apparently not present in the targeted building. The move drew criticism abroad, including from Wash...

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