GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

September showed that monetary restraint can contain exchange rate pressures even as the official supply of foreign currency declines. Monthly inflation slid to 8.4 percent from 8.9 percent in August, as slower public spending growth and tighter monetary conditions curbed demand for dollars and n...

The limits of disinflation and the challenge of growth with one year to the 2027 presidential election

ARGENTINA · Report · 20 Oct 2026

With one year remaining until the presidential election on October 24, 2027, and roughly ten months until the mandatory primary elections (PASO) that will define party candidates, the window to reverse the modest results of the economic program—in terms of activity and inflation—is narrow. The go...

Another rate hike? The case for 50 basis points

PHILIPPINES · Report · 20 Oct 2026

The Philippine economy faces a difficult policy dilemma as inflationary pressures intensify even as economic activity remains weak. Headline inflation has accelerated, while core inflation has risen from 2.4% in the first nine months of 2025 to 3.8% in the same period of 2026, suggesting that pri...

Polls show Flávio Bolsonaro has a slight advantage ahead of the runoff, activities in Congress will be limited this week, and the government will rely on executive action

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Oct 2026

Six days before the runoff, polls released yesterday (Oct. 19) show Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) ahead, although the race has tightened compared with the immediate aftermath of the first round. Flávio continues to hold a slight edge, but the election remains open. Rejection rates for both candidates are...

Politics moves to the forefront; economy to decelerate in Q4 2026; BCRP to stand pat in 2027

PERU · Forecast · 20 Oct 2026

In this forecast report, we discuss the new political environment, Peru’s economic performance amid the El Niño weather shock and our interest rate forecasts. In politics, the focus has turned to congressional approval of the government’s request for delegated legislative faculties, as well as ...

Weekly Report - October 19, 2026: Election polls point to a dead heat between the two blocs; inflation surprises to the downside; BoI expected to hold rates

ISRAEL · Report · 19 Oct 2026

With Israel's October 27 election just eight days away, polls continue to point to a political deadlock, with neither bloc securing a majority. Opposition parties are preparing to advance legislation through the Knesset after the vote, hoping to attract another party to a new coalition or trigger...

Good news for today: fiscal deficit target set at 4.9% GDP, retail margin caps will be lifted

HUNGARY · In Brief · 19 Oct 2026

PM Magyar presented the Tisza's 2027 government budget in a two-hour parliamentary speech this afternoon, which he himself previewed the other day as one of his most important public appearances so far.Starting with the main point, the deficit target has been set at 4.9% of GDP, following the ame...

The final stretch and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Oct 2026

This is the final week of campaigning ahead of the runoff election on October 25. On Friday, October 23, TV Globo will host a debate featuring Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro. A series of voting intention polls are expected to be released throughout the week. The Senate may vote on the constitutional a...

The political cycle inversion exacts its (steep) price

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 19 Oct 2026

Lula faces an unfavorable scenario in his bid for re-election. The economy is slowing down, despite the enormous stimuli, and inflation remains high, while billions are spent by the government to artificially contain fuel prices. Polls show Flávio Bolsonaro in a narrow lead, which could be larger...

Flávio Bolsonaro performed slightly better than Lula in yesterday’s debate, this is the final week of campaigning before the runoff on Sunday, and the Senate may vote on the Public Security PEC

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Oct 2026

In yesterday’s debate (Oct. 18) on TV Bandeirantes, the first of the runoff, Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) performed slightly better than Lula (PT). He successfully steered the confrontation toward public security, corruption, and food prices—issues that are priorities for voters and areas of vulnerabili...

Chinese GDP grew 4.5% in Q3

CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 19 Oct 2026

Special points to highlight in this report: * China’s record-breaking trade surplus reflects weak domestic demand, not export strength. While many analysts are describing China as having a two-track economy, with a strong export sector and weak domestic demand, this is not the right way to de...

State capability, crisis fire-fighting and judicial checks in Indian finance

INDIA · Report · 19 Oct 2026

India enacted a formal bankruptcy process for non-financial firms on May 28, 2016. Resolution of financial firms was not solved after the withdrawal of the Financial Resolution and Deposit Insurance Bill on August 7, 2018. Without codified rules, financial distress is managed through administrati...

Politics: Rebellion in the health system confirms a crisis in public health services

MEXICO · Report · 19 Oct 2026

The health system’s crisis has erupted through union mobilization. On October 13, IMSS workers protested in 37 cities across 25 states over low wages, long shifts, unstable contracts, run-down facilities, and shortages of equipment and medicines. Two days later, the more than 400,000 unionized wo...

Economics: The progress and outlook for the Infrastructure Investment Plan for Development with Well-being

MEXICO · Report · 19 Oct 2026

The Infrastructure Investment Plan for Development with Well-being projects spending of 5.6 trillion pesos between 2026 and 2030, including an additional 722 billion pesos this year. That is close to 2% of GDP and is directed mainly at energy. However, its financing is in doubt: public revenue in...

A most critical MPC on deck

TURKEY · Report · 18 Oct 2026

President Erdogan proclaimed an end to the fund crisis, as judicial operations against CHP-run municipalities and MPs stepped up. Also, Turkey’s leading pro-opposition broadcaster Halk TV was taken over by the SDIF. Is this the rallying call of Erdogan’s final assault against the opposition nexu...