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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

No new tax reform proposal will be forthcoming
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 21 Oct 2024

This afternoon, President Abinader indicated that there is no new proposal for fiscal reform. The government will make all the necessary budget adjustments. He also assured that the government will continue with the implementation of the Fiscal Responsibility Law and the application of the fiscal...

Anticipated spending cuts, municipal election runoff preview and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Oct 2024

The highlight in the National Congress is the presentation of the schedule for the regulation of the Tax Reform in the Senate’s Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ). This is the last week of campaigning before the municipal election runoff. On Sunday, October 27, 52 cities will choose their m...

Economics: Economic and political regime change modifies the balance of risks in the medium-to-long term
MEXICO · Report · 21 Oct 2024

Amid a wave of fresh constitutional reforms, some already approved and others progressing at a fast clip, the arrival of the new president and Federal Congress marks a shift in the country's economic-political regime—a shift that defines a balance of risks and opportunities that are quite differe...

Not So Fast
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 21 Oct 2024

After robust growth early in the year, economic activity shows some signs of slowing down in high-frequency data, largely due, we believe, to changes in fiscal policy dynamics. The first half of the year was marked by a fast expansion of public spending, which has cooled off more recently. The la...

IMF Fifth Review: Reform Targets Grow More Demanding
UKRAINE · In Brief · 21 Oct 2024

On Friday, October 18, the IMF reported on the fifth review of the EFF arrangement for Ukraine and announced a $1.1 billion disbursement channeled to Ukraine's budget. The tone of the press release was very positive, highlighting that the authorities met all end-June quantitative performance crit...

How long can consumer savings last?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 21 Oct 2024

China is hoping a short-term stimulus package will revive the economy. The rumored size of a package keeps growing. Although a large stimulus package has not taken place, the impact of the slowing economy on ordinary citizens has been reduced due to the size of savings deposits in the banks and g...

Another slow week in Congress, the runoff of the municipal elections will be held on Sunday, and Senator Braga should present the work schedule for the Tax Reform regulation bill this week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Oct 2024

This will be another slow week in Congress due to the municipal elections. Next Sunday (October 27), voters in 52 cities with a population above 200,000 residents will hold the runoff of the municipal elections. Once the runoff concludes, the National Congress, which has been in an informal reces...

Politics: Governability risks on multiple fronts
MEXICO · Report · 21 Oct 2024

With Claudia Sheinbaum in office less than three weeks, analysts, as well as political, economic, and social actors, are raising questions on the challenges the new government faces in terms of guaranteeing governability. In this week’s edition of the Political Outlook we highlight 28 risks in th...

Inflation moderation reduces the likelihood of a rate hike
ISRAEL · Report · 21 Oct 2024

1. September’s low CPI print reduces the likelihood of a rate hike in the coming months. 2. The shekel appreciated sharply on Friday following the Sinwar assassination, but a ceasefire could be elusive. 3. Trade data point to both export and import expansion in Q324, but growth in Q424 wil...

Kind reminder: the MNB is likely to hold the base rate at tomorrow's rate-setting meeting
HUNGARY · In Brief · 21 Oct 2024

The Monetary Council is set to hold its monthly rate-setting meeting tomorrow. With EURHUF at 402, as we are writing this note, a rate cut is highly unlikely this time.This morning, Portfolio.hu published the results of its regular analyst poll. All twelve respondents expect that the Council will...

Low inflation print reduces the likelihood of tightening in coming months
ISRAEL · In Brief · 20 Oct 2024

Geopolitics: The death of Sinwar, the Hamas leader, was greeted with some cautious optimism regarding a possible cease-fire. Israel continues its ground offensive in Northern Gaza and into Southern Lebanon. Missiles and drones from Hezbollah continue to be fired into Israel at a high intensity ca...

U-Turn in politics, IMF reality check in economics
TURKEY · Report · 20 Oct 2024

In October, Turkish politics witnessed a startling change of course, as Messrs. Bahceli and Erdogan extended an olive branch to DEM, a party which represents the majority of the Kurdish constituency. DEM and its predecessors were for years treated as pariahs by the Republican Alliance. Ostensibly...

President Abinader to withdraw the Fiscal Modernization Bill from the National Congress
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 19 Oct 2024 · 3 responses

After facing strong criticism from various sectors of Dominican society, President Luis Abinader has announced that he will withdraw the Fiscal Modernization Bill from the National Congress. He stated that this decision was made because the legislative initiative lacked public support and did not...

Growth forecast revised down significantly
HUNGARY · Forecast · 18 Oct 2024

In this quarterly update, we are revising our GDP forecast downward by a significant amount, following similar recent moves by other forecasters but taking a somewhat more pessimistic view than most of the other forecasts we know (Table 1). We are doing so on account of the continued, and current...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil drops, Kuwait’s non-oil growth rises, Hamas's leader killed
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 18 Oct 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude dipped as low as $72 on reduced concerns that Israel might strike Iranian oil facilities, and amidst indicators of weaker demand in China. * The first EU-GCC summit was held in Brussels, with participants inclu...

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