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President Lula is attending the G7 meeting in France. Senate President Davi Alcolumbre may refer the proposal to end the 6-on-1 work schedule to the Senate Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ). The rapporteur of the provisional measure on minimum freight rates may present his report to the Jo...

Essential CIS Politics: June 1-15, 2026

CIS POLITICS · Report · 15 Jun 2026

Major headlines: - Armenia parliamentary elections (June 7, 2026): Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party won Armenia’s parliamentary elections with 49.8% of the vote, securing a working majority but missing a constitutional majority. The main opposition gained seats amid Weste...

RRF funds to arrive in late 2026

HUNGARY · Report · 15 Jun 2026

In late May, the new government reached a political agreement with the EU Commission on the conditional release of nearly all of the so-far-blocked EU funds. Further efforts to actually receive the money will focus on the RRF, where an extraordinarily high time pressure remains. Here, conditions ...

Living on borrowed time

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 15 Jun 2026

The economic outlook changed considerably over the second quarter of the year. Much of this, of course, reflected the depth and duration of the geopolitical crisis in the Strait of Hormuz. If the U.S. government expected the Iranian regime to capitulate quickly, particularly after eliminating its...

Lula will attend the G7 Summit in France this week, Alcolumbre is expected to submit the 6x1 workweek PEC to the CCJ, and the STF should hear the criminal case involving Congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Jun 2026

President Lula will attend the G7 Summit in France this week. He is expected to seek a meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump to discuss the tariffs imposed on Brazilian products. This week, Senate President Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP) is expected to refer the proposed constitutional amendment (...

Economics: Development banking in Mexico—a persistent deterioration

MEXICO · Report · 15 Jun 2026

Although development banking is one of the main pillars for achieving the goals of Plan México and the Infrastructure Investment Plan for Development with Wellbeing announced by President Sheinbaum as the strategies to reactivate investment and economic growth, in practice development banking has...

Economic growth moderated but remains stable

KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 15 Jun 2026

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that the short-term indicator, which measures combined economic activity in industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, IT/communications, and trade, grew by 4.3% y-o-y in 5M26, slightly higher than the 4.2% growth in the first four months. In M...

Politics: World Cup—Federal government and Mexico City government under heavy pressure

MEXICO · Report · 15 Jun 2026

Mexico’s hosting of the 2026 World Cup—jointly with the United States and Canada—has placed the Sheinbaum government under intense scrutiny at a moment of mounting social discontent. Multiple aggrieved groups—CNTE teachers, farmers and truckers, mothers searching for disappeared relatives, dismis...

GDP drops 0.6% in Q1 2026, growth outlook remains subdued

UKRAINE · In Brief · 14 Jun 2026

Ukrainian GDP dropped by 0.6% in Q1 2026, according to the updated estimates of the State Statistics Committee of Ukraine. Devastating missile and drone attacks on energy infrastructure through January and February 2026 are behind the GDP drop. On the demand side, the drop is reflected in an 8.0 ...

La nausée

TURKEY · Report · 14 Jun 2026

Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the court-appointed chairman of CHP, seems to be in collusion with President Erdogan, hollowing out the party step by step by ejecting MPs and rank-and-file by disciplinary action. He has no intention to convene a new Grand Convention to pit himself against former chair Ozgur ...

Weekly report, June 12, 2026: fiscal outlook improves; focus shifts to May CPI and emerging U.S.-Iran deal

ISRAEL · Report · 12 Jun 2026

This week's data continued to point to a resilient Israeli economy despite renewed geopolitical uncertainty. Consumer confidence returned to its pre-war level, supporting a gradual recovery in private consumption, while fiscal performance remained stronger than expected. Strong direct-tax revenue...

A surprise rate hike

INDONESIA · Report · 12 Jun 2026

On June 9, 2026, Bank Indonesia announced a benchmark rate hike of 25 basis points to 5.50%. This rate hike was implemented less than a month from the previous rate hike of 50 basis points on May 20, 2026. These actions were taken by Bank Indonesia in the midst of the downward pressure on the Ind...

Government announces pro-growth measures and policies to mitigate effects of international economic crisis

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 12 Jun 2026

After months of consultations with productive sectors and political leaders, the Dominican government announced that it will submit to Congress a bill aimed at increasing government revenues by between DOP 40 billion and DOP 50 billion. These measures, together with the expenditure control act...

The Federal Police rejected a new plea bargain submitted by Vorcaro, Motta appointed Leo Prates as rapporteur for the 6x1 work schedule bill, and the Copom will meet next week to decide on the benchmark interest rate

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Jun 2026

The Federal Police informed the Supreme Federal Court (STF) that it rejected a new plea bargain proposal submitted by Daniel Vorcaro of Banco Master. Authorities concluded that Vorcaro failed to provide new information beyond what had already been uncovered in ongoing investigations and did not i...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil drops on deal hopes, Saudi companies postpone IPOs, Oman oil output up 10%

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 12 Jun 2026

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Trump claimed yet again that an Iran deal is imminent; betting markets see a 50% chance by end-June, and Brent dropped to $86, the lowest since early March. * If there is a breakthrough, with talk of a potential signing th...