GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

In our Quarterly I argued forcefully that early elections will not take place before March-April 2028, while still stick to my baseline, a recent statement by CHP’s court appointed chairperson Kemal Kilicdaroglu is certain to stoke a second round of heated debate about the timing of early electio...

Weekly Report - October 26, 2026: Israel heads to the polls; Bank of Israel signals a pause in rate cuts; economic growth remains strong but uneven

ISRAEL · Report · 26 Oct 2026

Israel heads to the October 27 elections amid uncertainty over the outcome and renewed threats of military escalation. The final polls give Netanyahu's bloc around 50 seats, compared with approximately 69 for the Zionist opposition and Arab parties combined. However, political deadlock remains a ...

Expensive and Inefficient

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Oct 2026

General government expenditure in Brazil, excluding interest and transfers, amounts to 18.3% of GDP, above the median for both emerging economies and Latin American countries. Yet the return on this spending is low. Basic public services, such as education, healthcare and public security, fall sh...

Pashinyan's sweeping victory in local vote may encourage him to pursue snap Parliamentary elections

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 26 Oct 2026

Over the weekend, Armenia held partial local elections, where the ruling Civil Contract enjoyed a sweeping victory. The October 25 vote did not represent nationwide municipal elections as 21 out of a total of 64 municipalities went to the polls. In 19 of them voters elected local councils and in ...

Economics: Services drive the economy in the third quarter, but without improvement in employment and at an uneven pace by sector

MEXICO · Report · 26 Oct 2026

The economy is growing at relatively high rates in the third quarter of 2026, at close to 3.5% year over year according to the IGAE, but the momentum is narrower than the headline suggests. Services, which account for about two thirds of GDP, are the main driver (3.9%), ahead of industry, whose r...

Street mobilization explains Lula's unprecedented comeback and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Oct 2026

With the presidential election decided, the Lula administration is beginning negotiations over the composition of the new government. In Congress, party leaders are resuming talks on pending issues, including the 2027 Federal Budget, the Public Security Constitutional Amendment, and other matters...

Politics: Water—another crisis in the making

MEXICO · Report · 26 Oct 2026

Mexico faces a water problem that the recent protests in Guadalajara at the beginning of October have merely brought to the surface. Three droughts in fifteen years and three supply crises in the country’s three largest cities, Monterrey in 2022, Mexico City in 2024 and Guadalajara in 2026, share...

Economic rescue bill is a tall order

COLOMBIA · Report · 26 Oct 2026 · 1 response

2027 won’t be an easy economic year for Colombia. The country will face great monetary, fiscal, environmental (El Niño) and social challenges. Let us hope that the government does not add one more challenge. The first half of every Colombian presidential term defines the tone and theme of the ...

Lula was reelected to a fourth term, Flávio has not conceded defeat, and Congress is expected to resume voting on a backlog of pending measures

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Oct 2026

President Lula (PT) was reelected yesterday (Oct. 25) to a fourth term. According to the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), Lula won 51.79% of the valid votes, or 64.3 million votes, compared with 48.21% for Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), who received 59.8 million. Flávio has not conceded defeat. He...

Netanyahu warns of banking sanctions and proposes an unrealistic cryptocurrency solution

ISRAEL · In Brief · 26 Oct 2026

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned on Friday that Israel could face international economic sanctions, including restrictions on its banking system. In a bizarre statement during an interview with Israel's Economy Channel, Netanyahu suggested that cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology c...

Forecasting in a witch’s cauldron

TURKEY · Forecast · 25 Oct 2026

The context is eerie and highly fluid, as the fund scandal --or “Fonzi” as it is colloquially called-- shows no sign of abating, which makes forecasting ever more difficult even by Turkish standards. We try anyway. We expect economic activity to continue to stagnate, as growth ends the year at 2....

GULF WEEKLY: Oil rises on US strike threat, Kuwait issues bonds, UAE leads UN Sec'y General race

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 23 Oct 2026

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The US and Israel are reportedly considering renewed strikes on Iran after the midterms. * Iran threatened it would respond with attacks on Gulf infrastructure. Brent crude has risen to $114. * The Houthis tightened their...

Ahead of the 30 October Webinar: Budget Passed, Consolidation in Doubt, November Hike

CZECHIA · In Brief · 23 Oct 2026

By Artur Radziwill and Jan Hagemejer There will be plenty to discuss at our launch webinar on 30 October, following the municipal and Senate elections and yesterday's critical budget vote, and ahead of the central bank's rate decision on 5 November. The 2027 budget cleared its first reading late ...

Flávio Bolsonaro’s lead in the runoff has been narrowing, both campaigns signed a waiver at the TSE to disclose their confidential records, and the runoff will be held this Sunday, October 25

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Oct 2026

The three polls released yesterday (October 22) all point in the same direction: Flávio remains numerically ahead in every poll, but his lead has been narrowing, while Lula’s rejection rate has declined. This is an election that will be decided by the details: turnout, undecided voters, and perfo...

Pre-election political update - October 23, 2026: Eisenkot gains momentum but remains short of 61 seats; markets expected to react modestly

ISRAEL · Report · 23 Oct 2026

The latest polls show growing momentum for Eisenkot's bloc, but neither Zionist bloc is projected to reach the 61 seats needed to form a government without including Arab parties in the coalition. Our analysis of previous elections suggests that pre-election polls have been relatively accurate in...