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After meeting with President Lula (PT) on Wednesday (June 24), Senator Jaques Wagner (PT-BA) announced that he will step down as the government's leader in the Senate. Wagner's departure had been expected and comes as no surprise. Former First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) posted a video statement...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Opposition cross-pollination in the South Caucasus—Armenia and Georgia exchanging lessons from the political battlefield

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 25 Jun 2026

Two key events have taken place in the Armenian and Georgian political fields these days. In the former, I see no surprises coming from tomorrow's Constitutional Court decision on the validity of the elections as the Court will rubber stamp Pashinyan's victory. The really interesting debate th...

Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 25 Jun 2026

In recent weeks, the ruble shifted from the USD/RUB 70-72 range seen at the end of May and earlier this month to USD/RUB 74-76. This healthy correction came amid expectations and the actual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, oil prices fell, with Brent dropping from $95/bbl at the st...

BSP extends regulatory relief to banks amid the Middle East conflict: a new dimension of Central Banking?

PHILIPPINES · Report · 24 Jun 2026

In providing a temporary regulatory relief to the banks, this Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas' (BSP) regulatory response represents a departure from the conventional approach adopted by most regional central banks by combining monetary policy with targeted prudential and supervisory relief for banks...

Flávio Bolsonaro stated that he will travel to the U.S. to advocate against the 25% tariffs, Operation Mirage will investigate Brazil’s National Financial System, and the STF will hear cases on digital platform employment

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Jun 2026

Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) stated yesterday that he will travel to the United States to advocate, on July 6, against the imposition of tariffs on Brazilian companies by the U.S. government. Flávio is expected to argue for the suspension of the proposed 25% tariff on Brazilian products and to d...

The impact of the Iran and Ukraine Wars on the CIS - Slide presentation and webinar replay

CIS POLITICS · Presentation · 24 Jun 2026

How have countries in the CIS region reacted to the Iran War? Why has Russia's support for Iran been so limited? Will Kazakhstan adopt a more active role in the region as a middle power? Is Armenia's pivot towards the US accelerating due to the war in Iran? How is Azerbaijan managing the Iranian ...

Trade imbalances have moved to the center of discussion

CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 24 Jun 2026

Special points to highlight in this report: - May’s data releases show the same pattern as has every monthly data release this year, including the continued deterioration in the demand side of the economy. Growth in industrial output was slightly down in May and year to date, while growth in ...

Oil tailwind switches course

VENEZUELA · Report · 23 Jun 2026 · 1 response

The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has changed our outlook. The extraordinary oil windfall that sustained foreign exchange inflows during the first half of 2026 is starting to move in reverse, prompting us to revise our inflation and depreciation forecasts upward for the second half of this ye...

Tomorrow never comes

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 23 Jun 2026

There were expectations that the Copom Minutes would help explain the evident gaps present in the statement released after last week’s meeting. There was no shortage of effort in this direction, but the results were not the best. Recapping, both in the statement itself and even more clearly in...

The PT is concerned about the investigation into Senator Jaques Wagner, the latest poll shows a majority of respondents have a negative view of the Lula administration, and Flávio Bolsonaro participated in the CNI event

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Jun 2026

The possible departure of Senate Government Leader Jaques Wagner (PT-BA) was discussed yesterday by President Lula’s campaign inner circle. Targeted by a Federal Police operation related to the Master case, the PT is concerned about the potential impact on Lula’s reelection campaign. An Ipsos/Ipe...

Economics: A weak labor market in the January–May 2026 period

MEXICO · Report · 22 Jun 2026

Mexico's labor market in the first four months of 2026 reflects the broader weakness of the economy. Total employment grew just 1.2% year on year in April, with growth concentrated almost entirely in the informal sector (up 2.0%), while formal employment contracted slightly (-0.1%). This marks th...

The Master Case reaches the PT and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Jun 2026

A slow week is expected, with reduced activity in the National Congress. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva may decide the future of Senate Government Leader Jaques Wagner (PT-BA). The Supreme Federal Court will hear cases involving the employment relationship between drivers and delivery worker...

More of the same

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Jun 2026

Public debt remains on an upward trajectory, and, given the current fiscal policy, we see no signs of reversal. Stabilizing it requires a substantial primary surplus, far removed from the deficit the government is expected to deliver this year and next. To keep debt to GDP constant over the long ...

CBR cuts the key rate by 25 bps, sees risks of rising inflation

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 22 Jun 2026

The Central Bank of Russia cut the base rate by 25 bps to 14.25%, noting that while disinflation continues, it’s been uneven, with the latest weekly inflation reading above May’s weekly average. As of June 16, MTD inflation reached 0.38%, pushing YTD inflation to 3.68%. In May and April, monthly ...

A slow week in Brasília, the investigation into Senator Jaques Wagner continues, and five new presidential polls should be published

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Jun 2026

This will be a slow week in Brasília, with reduced activity in the National Congress, due to the São João festivities and Brazil's World Cup match on Wednesday (June 24). President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) is scheduled to meet this week with Senator Jaques Wagner (PT-BA), the government's l...