CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA
Analyst
Ivan Tchakarov
Former Investment Bank Chief EconomistRecent Country Insights
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: The Carnegie Paradox; After the surge, CCA currencies move from boom to balance
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 19 Dec 2025
It may only be natural to have my last TOPIC OF THE WEEK for the year attempt a kind of philosophical diversion into, and analysis of, a recent Carnegie Endowment post titled "Passions over Ararat. Why is Pashinyan trying to change the Armenian national identity?" I zoomed in on this piece for a ...
2026 CCA Outlook: The spotlight sharpens—and it lands on Yerevan
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Forecast · 12 Dec 2025
Without a doubt, the key political economy event in the Caucasus and Central Asia next year is the upcoming Parliamentary vote in Armenia next Jun. The elections are, of course, interesting not only for the academics and analytics of them, but also for their geo-economic and geopolitical implica...
Nov CCA highlights: Armenia/Georgia keep policy rates unchanged, while Kyrgyzstan hikes and Tajikistan eases, Azerbaijan looks to ramp up oil/gas production from 2029, Georgia/Uzbekistan see sovereign outlook improvements
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 05 Dec 2025
For a while, I have skipped the more mundane monthly publication of the key economic/political/geopolitical events in the CCA as more pressing writing issues have kept my pen occupied. The Nov summary rectifies this lapse, and, for the first time, adds Kyrgyzstan to the rest of the usually covere...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Georgia leading, Armenia rising, Azerbaijan stable in South Caucasus Banking Review
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 28 Nov 2025
I just completed a comparative report of the banking sectors and broader business climates of Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan across 17 thematic pillars. My South Caucasus Banking & Investment Review 2025 finds that Georgia is still leading the South Caucasus in banking and investment metrics wi...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Local ballot, national message—what Vagharshapat says about Armenia's 2026 Parliamentary Elections
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 21 Nov 2025
This week I complete my trilogy on the political and geopolitical backdrop in the South Caucasus by looking at the results from the important local elections in Armenia's Vagharshapat (the 5th largest city in the country). I use the results to test my early-month theory (and projection) about how...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Georgia is not on my mind
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 14 Nov 2025
I feel compelled to write this note on Georgia given that it has again hit the headlines, with the European Commission's annual enlargement report concluding that the country is a "candidate in name only", as well as the government's lawsuit before the Constitutional Court seeking to ban three ke...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Who stands to dominate the ballot box in Armenia’s 2026 showdown?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 07 Nov 2025
This year I have spent a considerable amount of time discussing and analyzing the political backdrop in Armenia, including because, with the political cycles over in Azerbaijan and Georgia, it is now Armenia's turn to hold parliamentary elections next Jun. However, in contrast to Georgia, where I...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Rogue E&O bring about fresh EU action on Kyrgyz banks
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 31 Oct 2025
Earlier in the month I argued that one should worry less about the snap Parliamentary vote in Kyrgyzstan and pay more attention to possible fresh sanctions on the economy, chiefly the banking sector. That threat has now materialized, with the EU slapping transaction bans on two Kyrgyz banks. I hy...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Is Uzbekistan poised to close the chapter on fiscal profligacy?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 24 Oct 2025
Wading through the 138 pages of Uzbekistan’s 2026–2028 Fiscal Strategy is a test of endurance, and of language skills, since the document exists only in Uzbek. However, it is very much worth the effort as it provides a glimpse into government's thinking about the fiscal envelope in the next coupl...