CENTRAL AMERICA
Analysts
Fernando Naranjo
Former Finance Minister
Felix Delgado
Former General Manager, Central BankDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
High hopes and mixed signals
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Jun 2024
Costa Rica’s political conditions have stayed the same for the past two years, with strained relationships between President Rodrigo Chaves and members of the congressional opposition now adding to Chaves’ renewed criticism of the Comptroller General. Recall that during these past two years the p...
Drop off in growth – and remittances
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 May 2024
In Costa Rica, GDP growth slowdown will continue in the next 18 months. According to the Central Bank’s estimates in its April 30th Monetary Policy Report, GDP growth for 2024 and 2025 will be lower. The latest estimates showed that the economy had a mediocre start during Q1. The latest Monetary ...
Good spots and prospects
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Apr 2024
El Salvador grew faster than expected in 2023 and, under optimistic and somewhat daring assumptions about economic policy decision-making this year, it could maintain those positive economic results during the outlook period. During this second administration of President Nayib Bukele, we expect ...
Webinar Replay - Central America Outlook: Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 05 Apr 2024
Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar on the economic outlook for Costa Rica, El Salvador, and Guatemala. What will fiscal consolidation mean for Costa Rica after its IMF program ends? Will El Salvador agree to a new IMF financing program? Will Guatemala find stability after ...
Growth mixed, but tied to U.S. trends.
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 01 Apr 2024
Guatemala´s economy returned to its long-term potential growth rate in 2023. Despite the political tensions over presidential transition, there were no major disruptions in internal production and income. Real GDP growth reached 3.5% y/y, down from 4.1% a year before. Economic expansion can be ex...
Prospects looking up
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 27 Feb 2024
Understanding Costa Rica’s unexpectedly good 2023 economic performance requires evaluating the main exogenous elements that departed from our basic assumptions for the country’s short-term economic outlook. This is important, primarily to rehearse a suitable forecast scenario. Those elements rela...
Bukele sweeps presidential and congressional elections
CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 05 Feb 2024
by Félix Delgado and Fernando Naranjo According to official figures of the Supreme Electoral Court with 70.25% of electoral records processed, Bukele got 1,662,313 million votes, while the second place Manuel Flores from FMLN only 139,000 votes. Bukele announced his victory with more than 85% of ...
Growth and advantages ahead
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 31 Jan 2024
El Salvador will hold presidential elections on February 4th, with president-on-leave Nayib Bukele a leading contender. Despite strong arguments about the unconstitutionality of his running for another term, Bukele’s candidacy is now a certainty. New members of Congress will also be elected and,...
Bernardo Arevalo was sworn in as president of Guatemala after serious difficulties in the presidential inauguration
CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 15 Jan 2024
Bernardo Arevalo was sworn as president of Guatemala after serious difficulties in the presidential inauguration. On January 15th, Bernardo Arevalo was sworn as president of Guatemala for a four-year period. The delays were a consequence of the declaration of the 23 legislators of the Semilla Par...