CENTRAL AMERICA
Analysts
Fernando Naranjo
Former Finance Minister
Felix Delgado
Former General Manager, Central BankDatabank
Recent Country Insights
Guatemala confronts a less dynamic year.
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 24 Mar 2023
Guatemala´s economy faced several challenges in 2022, such as high domestic inflation, less favorable external conditions and high interest rates. The economy nonetheless recorded strong growth, good external accounts and stability in fiscal figures and in the financial sector. Guatemala´s econom...
Next challenge: tackling structural problems.
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Feb 2023 · 1 response
Costa Rica is expected to maintain discipline in public finances under the fiscal rule implemented in the 2018 legislation, although shielding the fiscal advances to reinforce medium and long-term sustainability is important. Public policies are a next step in addressing several lagged social and...
Political and economic prospects mixed.
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 31 Jan 2023
Costa Rica’s exchange rate in 2022 experienced one of the most volatile periods of its history. After a currency depreciation of 9% during H1, the colon appreciated 14.3% from July to the end of 2022. Daily volatility rose significantly, recording a standard deviation of ₡20 compared to ₡10 a yea...
Bearing up
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 22 Dec 2022
Costa Rica’s economic performance has been affected by negative external conditions, but results in some areas looking better than expected. Short-term economic activity indicators suggest that real growth this year could be around 4% y/y, vs. the low 3.3% of our July revised forecast. The nature...
Growth moderating, with inflation trend mixed
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Nov 2022
El Salvador’s economic evolution continues along the lines we forecast in our outlook revision of September 2022. Inflation is still high, but slowly descending. Economic activity estimated by the Central Bank’s monthly index has decelerated from the highs of H1 2021, and stopped falling in H2 20...
Growth and inflation trends mixed
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Oct 2022
The Costa Rican economy is evolving better than expected, despite the adverse external conditions. Recent reversal signals in the downward trend of economic activity during H1 2022 suggest that real GDP growth could be higher than projected. The main driver relates to FTZ exports, including a new...
Growth outlook mixed, amid fiscal woes
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Sep 2022
El Salvador’s post-pandemic economic rebound was robust in 2021, but was truncated by adverse international factors, mainly the global economic consequences of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as well as persisting distortions on global supply chains. Consequently, economic growth this and next year ...
President Nayib Bukele of El Salvador announced running for reelection
CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 16 Sep 2022
by Fernando Naranjo and Felix Delgado El Salvador President Nayib Bukele announced on Thursday his intention to run again for president in 2024, despite the country’s Constitution prohibiting serving consecutive presidential terms. The announcement was made on public television and social media a...
Facing weaker global growth and confidence
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 26 Aug 2022
Guatemala’s economy will grow steadily in the next 18 months, but at a slower pace than in the previous forecast. International conditions have changed drastically since March 2022. There are no signs of recession or stagnation. We do not expect economic activity to overperform in coming months. ...