COLOMBIA
Analysts
Juan Carlos Echeverry
Former President of Ecopetrol, Finance Minister
Andrés Escobar Arango
Former Deputy Finance Minister
Mauricio Santa Maria
Former President of ANIF, Planning MinisterDatabanks
Events
Recent Country Insights
A surprising Invamer poll rocks the political landscape
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 01 Dec 2025 · 1 response
After a long period without official polls due to a legal ban, Invamer published on Nov. 30th a surprising poll on the presidential election. The main result is a substantial jump in leftist Iván Cepeda’s vote intention, surpassing right-wing Abelardo de la Espriella, and centrist Sergio Fajardo,...
An unexpected turn of fiscal events
COLOMBIA · Report · 01 Dec 2025 · 1 response
Deterioration in the primary balance is expected to be fully compensated for by lower interest payments, so the new expected NCG deficit number for 2025 should be the same 6.7% of GDP as posted in 2024. In terms of debt, things might be somewhat improving on that end too: due to the effects of de...
The road to darkness
COLOMBIA · Report · 05 Nov 2025 · 3 responses
Witnessing U.S. President Donald Trump accuse President Gustavo Petro of being an “illegal drug trafficker,” and Petro retort that he should help depose Trump, we might wonder – as a former Colombian president did in the early 1960s, at a minister’s suggestion that Colombia declare war on the Uni...
Decertification is deserved – yet unlikely to do much damage
COLOMBIA · Report · 30 Sep 2025 · 3 responses
U.S. President Donald Trump has identified Colombia as a major drug transit or primary illicit drug-producing country, along with the usual suspects, among them Afghanistan, Bolivia, China and Mexico. It’s not surprising that President Gustavo Petro’s policies and military strategy have led Colom...
Which way will the Constitutional Court go?
COLOMBIA · Report · 28 Aug 2025
This is a pivotal moment for the composition of Colombia’s Constitutional Court. Justice José Fernando Reyes, aligned with the “defense of institutions” bloc, will soon resign, leaving a critical vacancy. To fill it, the Supreme Court has nominated Patricia Balanta, Carlos Camargo and Jaime Humbe...
Obstinate Petro risks blowing up public finances
COLOMBIA · Report · 01 Aug 2025 · 1 response
The criminal trial of Álvaro Uribe—the most influential political figure in Colombia in the 21st century—has culminated in a ruling that could redefine the country’s relationship between law and power. After years of legal entanglements rooted in a 2012 complaint initiated by Uribe himself, Judge...
Downgrades and deficits will be Petro’s legacy
COLOMBIA · Report · 03 Jul 2025
Rumors began spreading last month that the government wanted to suspend the fiscal rule, not due to a true macroeconomic emergency, but because of a soaring deficit driven by the government’s expansive fiscal ambitions and flagging revenue performance. The only way out for an administration that...
Webinar replay - Colombia in turmoil
COLOMBIA · Report · 13 Jun 2025
What is driving the current wave of violence in Colombia? What are the likely consequences for governability, reforms and an eventual consultation on labor reform? What are the implications for the presidential race? How will the central bank act in its June meeting? Visit our calendar page to...
Terror, uncertainty, paranoia
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 09 Jun 2025 · 2 responses
It is challenging to interpret the events unfolding in Colombia. There are many antecedents from a distant past that Colombians thought were behind us. Back in the early nineties, many presidential candidates were assassinated in Colombia by the dark forces of narco-trafficking and paramilitarism...