INDIA
Analyst
Radhika Pandey
Senior Fellow, National Institute for Public Finance and PolicyDatabank
Recent Country Insights
The puzzles of the exchange rate and monetary policy
INDIA · Report · 10 Mar 2023
RBI has defended an exchange rate of about 82 or 83 rupees to the dollar in recent weeks. This interest rate defence involves raising the short rate. The third outcome that RBI is managing is the long rate: in its capacity as the debt manager for the government, it has held down the long rate...
The outlook for private investment
INDIA · Report · 09 Mar 2023
During the pandemic, at first, the biggest firms fared rather well, and this was reflected in the earnings growth of listed companies. There are two problems with this post-pandemic growth. First, this was a case of the biggest firms’ gaining share, which could only happen for a limited period of...
What we can learn from the Adani story
INDIA · Report · 10 Feb 2023
When investment faltered from 2011 onwards, some felt that there was a "deals rather than rules" solution to the problem. Perhaps the state could foster a small set of private "national champion" firms that would play a leadership role in investment. Through these firms, there could be a new rena...
The monetary policy and exchange rate situation
INDIA · Report · 27 Dec 2022
Conditions on the INR market have changed; RBI now seems to be preventing an INR appreciation. Conditions on inflation have also changed: there has been a sharp decline in month-on-month price gains. When the Fed raises rates in coming months, there will now be a conflict at RBI. The exchange...
Greater sanity at the end of a startup tech boom
INDIA · Report · 14 Nov 2022
India went through a dramatic period with the success of technology startups backed by venture capital. At its peak this phenomenon induced a significant impact upon the labor market and was starting to reshape the behavior of established financial and non-financial firms. The bloom is off this r...
The monetary policy and exchange rate situation
INDIA · Report · 30 Sep 2022
The export boom of 2020 and 2021 came to a halt in early 2022. Discounted crude oil from Russia has helped keep down the cost of importing crude oil. Inflation that exceeds the target of 4% remains a problem. Rupee depreciation will pass through into a small increase in inflation. The trailing P/...
Reading economics in chess
INDIA · Report · 06 Sep 2022
Indians have done well in chess for a long time. In September 2022, 11 of the top 50 teenagers were from India. This underlines the upper tail capabilities in India in the eyes of global decision makers. The rebranding of India was shaped by the comic strip Dilbert’s “Asok” character in the 19...
The INR at 80
INDIA · Report · 25 Jul 2022
Recent statements by the RBI Governor have clarified the commitment of RBI to defending the exchange rate. Round numbers such as 65, 70, 75, 80, etc. seem to be places where the RBI takes a stand. USD/INR volatility is lower for the last Rs.1 or Rs.2 prior to the round number, and then volatility...
The short-term and medium-term outlook for export-led growth
INDIA · Report · 21 Jul 2022
During the pandemic, Developed Markets consumers supported the world economy by buying more goods, and there was a great export boom in India. This export boom is likely to subside, given the combination of DM fiscal policy normalization, monetary tightening, and DM consumers' rotating away from ...