INDIA
Analyst
Susan Thomas
Council on Financial Sector Competitiveness, Ministry of FinanceDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Tariffs on gold, silver, platinum
INDIA · Report · 13 May 2026
The Indian macroeconomy is navigating a dual external shock originating from the Persian Gulf: a contraction in export demand alongside a pronounced escalation in petroleum import costs. The optimal macroeconomic adjustment to these terms-of-trade frictions operates through the price mechanism, s...
The macroeconomic adjustment to the 2026 external shock
INDIA · Report · 13 May 2026
The Iran conflict was a terms-of-trade shock to the Indian economy: to energy prices and to the export of goods, services and expatriate labor to Persian Gulf. The macroeconomic vulnerability in India is located in the institutional reluctance to permit price-clearing mechanisms to operate, to de...
Debates swirling about five sectors
INDIA · Report · 06 May 2026
We analyze Indian export dynamism beyond traditional low-cost sectors such as business process outsourcing, garment manufacturing, and basic IT services. We examine five emerging industries, the subject of contemporary debates, where private Indian firms may have the ability to achieve global mar...
Transmission of the West Asia petroleum shock through non-price mechanisms
INDIA · Report · 17 Apr 2026
The Iran war is an important shock for the Indian macroeconomy, through prices and quantities of petroleum and petrochemicals. With international crude benchmarks rising by approximately 50 percent, and maritime transit through the Strait of Hormuz fundamentally impaired, India’s access to vital ...
Macroeconomic adjustments to the energy shock: the exchange rate and the bond market
INDIA · Report · 06 Apr 2026
The macroeconomic adjustment to the 2026 energy price shock has been complicated by the authorities’ preference for a heavily managed exchange rate. Following the geopolitical escalation involving Iran, India’s terms of trade have suffered, dictating a textbook real depreciation. While the USD/IN...
Implications of the war in Iran
INDIA · Report · 16 Mar 2026
Indian macroeconomics is facing a multi-faceted external shock, one that requires a large adjustment of the general equilibrium. There is broad agreement on the core vulnerabilities: net reliance on imported hydrocarbons, exposure to Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) export markets, and the integrit...
Interpreting the US trade agreement
INDIA · Report · 09 Feb 2026
The interim trade framework between the United States and India, concluded in early February 2026, is an important moment in New Delhi's strategic calculus. While the agreement de-escalates a threatened trade war—reducing U.S. tariffs on Indian goods from a potential 50 percent aggregate to a uni...
Indian exports to the US under high tariffs
INDIA · Report · 26 Jan 2026
In late 2025, the Indian export sector faced a severe shock: the imposition of a 50-percent tariff by the United States for goods other than drugs or electronics. While early optimism relied on the personal chemistry between Prime Minister Modi and President Trump to mitigate these measures, the ...
Legal risk in India: the Mauritius Treaty and the rule of law
INDIA · Report · 20 Jan 2026
On January 15, 2026, the Supreme Court of India delivered a verdict against Tiger Global, ruling that its Mauritius-based entities were liable for capital gains tax on the 2018 sale of Flipkart shares to Walmart. This decision marks the final end of the residence-based taxation regime that had on...