INDIA

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Country Analysts

Ajay Shah
Former Advisor to Finance Ministry; Professor at NIPFP
Ila Patnaik
Former Economic Advisor at the Ministry of Finance

In The News

Databank

Click here to access the latest Macroeconomic Databank

Recent Country Insights

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Business cycle conditions, Oct-Dec 2018
INDIA - Report 17 Jan 2019
The best measure of business cycle conditions in India is the coincident indicator, which is a linear combination of well-measured underlying indicators. The coincident indicator deteriorated slightly in Oct-Dec 2018, to +2.68% above trend.The leading indicator gives us a sense of how the coincid...

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Five major challenges that shook India’s economy in 2018
INDIA - In Brief 03 Jan 2019
As a service to our clients, we are reproducing this Op-Ed by Ila Patnaik, which appeared in ThePrint on December 29, 2018. From GST to RBI to NPAs, both institutions and governance had a turbulent ride. The year 2018 saw significant challenges for the Indian economy. Implementation of the GST, a...

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The RBI governor is likely to find a way to transfer the right amount of money to help the government meet its fiscal targets
INDIA - In Brief 19 Dec 2018
As a service to our clients, we are reproducing this Op-Ed by Ila Patnaik, which appeared in ThePrint on December 19, 2018. The RBI governor is likely to find a way to transfer the right amount of money to help the government meet its fiscal targets At a time when the Narendra Modi government is ...

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State elections and a new Governor
INDIA - Report 11 Dec 2018
Two major developments in India have reduced the recent uncertainty about politics and economics in the country. The first was the counting and announcements of results of state elections in which the ruling BJP lost elections. The Congress party, which had lost the 2014 elections, made a comebac...

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Stress at RBI
INDIA - In Brief 10 Dec 2018
We should see the larger context of Urjit Patel's departure.1. There is significant economic stress. We are at the early stages of recovery from a tough recession that ran from 2012 to 2017. About 40% of the balance sheet of non-financial firms is in stressed firms. Matters are particularly diffi...

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Governor Patel resigns
INDIA - Report 10 Dec 2018
The resignation of RBI Governor Urjit Patel was a surprise after the last RBI board meeting, which is reported to have been quite cordial. While the governor cited personal reasons for his resignation, it is suspected that the forthcoming RBI board meeting on December 14 had agenda items about RB...

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Credit stress in the non-financial firms
INDIA - Report 20 Nov 2018 1 response
We utilize firm data to identify the set of large stressed non-financial firms. We measure the size of balance sheet, borrowing and bank borrowing in these firms relative to the overall non-financial corporate sector. About 60% of the debt outstanding – by banks or by others – is in stressed firm...

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Stress in NBFCs and real estate companies
INDIA - Report 16 Nov 2018
We review the stages of the slow-moving crisis in Indian finance. At present, NBFCs are facing a stress test. We analyze the small subset of listed NBFCs and identify the firms that have fared the best and worst since the date of the IL&FS default. We also identify the firms with the highest and ...

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Macroeconomic conditions in the Jul-Sep quarter
INDIA - In Brief 06 Nov 2018 1 response
GDP measurement in India is unreliable. We have built a `coincident indicator', which is a linear combination of trusted and well-measured series, to help get a sense of business cycle conditions.We are in a position to have an estimate for the Jul-Aug-Sep 2018 quarter: +3.87% above trend. There ...