ISRAEL
Analyst
Sani Ziv
UN Economic ConsultantRecent Country Insights
Israel slows bond issuance in September, but fiscal risks point to higher borrowing ahead
ISRAEL · In Brief · 27 Aug 2025
The government’s monthly issuance plan for September 2025 is to raise NIS 11.0 billion in tradable bonds on the local capital market in four weekly tenders, averaging NIS 2.75 billion per week. This marks a slower pace than in previous months: In July, issuance totaled NIS 12.37 billion, after a ...
Bank of Israel holds rates; future easing less likely as Gaza operation gets underway
ISRAEL · In Brief · 20 Aug 2025
As we expected, the Bank of Israel kept the benchmark rate unchanged at 4.5% yesterday, for the 13th consecutive meeting. The tone was cautious and hawkish, with emphasis on inflation risks, geopolitical uncertainty, and a tight labor market. The bank also mentioned signs of a rapid recovery afte...
Bank of Israel expected to hold rates tomorrow; window for Q4 easing exists
ISRAEL · In Brief · 19 Aug 2025
The Bank of Israel is expected to announce its key policy rate decision tomorrow (Wednesday, August 20). We do not expect a rate cut at this meeting. Why wait: Headline inflation has eased but remains above the 3% upper bound. The BoI continues to warn of labor-supply-driven price pressures, incl...
Sharp drop in GDP in Q2 not only due to the war with Iran; Gaza war poses growth risks ahead
ISRAEL · In Brief · 18 Aug 2025 · 1 response
Preliminary data for Q2 GDP show an annualized contraction of about 3.5%. The decline reflects the impact of the Israel-Iran war at the end of the quarter, which led to a partial shutdown of the economy in the last two weeks of June. Compared to a year earlier, GDP increased by 1.6%, but relative...
July print analysis: housing and seasonality pushed inflation up; the shekel offset some of the pressure
ISRAEL · In Brief · 18 Aug 2025
July’s CPI rose 0.4% m/m in line with our expectations, leaving headline inflation at 3.1% y/y, still slightly above the target range of the central bank (1%-3%). The print was a classic summer seasonal mix: Airfares increased 11% and domestic holidays 6.6%, both pushing up the index, while cloth...
July CPI preview: inflation to remain above target, Gaza operation endangers rate-cut prospects
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Aug 2025
Tomorrow (Friday) we will get July’s CPI print, and we will be watching it closely. We expect a 0.3%-0.4% monthly increase, which would keep annual inflation at around 3.1%, still above the Bank of Israel’s 1%-3% target range. July is typically a low-to-moderate CPI month, with an average monthly...
Israel’s July fiscal data: deficit narrows, but risks rise from Gaza takeover plan
ISRAEL · In Brief · 11 Aug 2025
The Ministry of Finance reported a fiscal deficit of NIS 4.7 billion ($1.4 billion) in July, with the trailing 12-month deficit narrowing to 4.8% of GDP from 5% in June. The budget deficit peaked at 8.5% of GDP in September 2024. Tax revenues in July totaled NIS 46.4 billion and reached NIS 306 b...
Foreigners were the dominant segment supporting shekel appreciation in Q2
ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 Aug 2025
The Israeli shekel appreciated significantly in Q2 2025, gaining approximately 9.3% against the US dollar and 1.5% against the euro, driven by improved investor sentiment following Operation “Am KeLavi” and broad-based dollar weakness in global markets. The shekel also strengthened by 6% in effec...
Israeli geopolitics: August 2025—dangerous stalemates on all fronts
ISRAEL · Report · 05 Aug 2025
Key takeaways from this report: Gaza ceasefire talks remain stalled: Negotiations between Israel and Hamas have collapsed over core disputes, including the extent of Israeli withdrawal, a commitment to ending the war, and the scope of prisoner exchanges. Efforts by mediators continue, but no b...