ISRAEL
Analyst
Sani Ziv
UN Economic ConsultantRecent Country Insights
Inflation expectations remain anchored at the 2% range; activity softens ahead of MPC decision
ISRAEL · In Brief · 20 Nov 2025
The Bank of Israel published its latest update on inflation expectations yesterday, showing that short-term expectations remain low, around the 2% range, close to the midpoint of the Bank’s target. One-year expectations from the capital market averaged 1.9%, while the average 12-month projection ...
Weekly macroeconomic update, November 17, 2025
ISRAEL · Report · 17 Nov 2025
This week’s market focus centered on two key releases: the October CPI and the Q3 GDP figures. Together, they offer an updated view of the economy’s post-war momentum and inflation environment ahead of the Bank of Israel’s November 24 rate decision. The GDP surged 12.4% (annualized) in Q3 as acti...
Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments – Weekly report, November 12, 2025
ISRAEL · Report · 12 Nov 2025
Geopolitical tensions intensified along Israel’s northern border following massive military strikes against Hezbollah, while Phase-Two ceasefire talks in Gaza show little progress meanwhile. Domestically, the recent leak of classified investigation materials, which led to the dismissal of the Mil...
Deficit edges up to 4.9% of GDP in October; Finance Ministry’s 2026 target of 3.2% seen as overly ambitious
ISRAEL · In Brief · 11 Nov 2025
Fiscal deficit widens to 4.9% of GDP in October The Ministry of Finance reported yesterday a fiscal deficit of NIS 15.3 billion ($4.64 billion) in October, with the trailing 12-month deficit slightly increasing to 4.9% of GDP from 4.7% in September. The budget deficit peaked at 8.5% of GDP in Sep...
Israel Governor signals conditions are ready for a rate cut, provided October CPI and Q3 growth remain moderate
ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 Nov 2025
Bank of Israel Governor Amir Yaron hinted at a possible interest-rate cut ahead of the bank’s November 24 decision. Speaking at a conference on Tuesday, he said the September CPI, which fell by 0.6%, was “a step in the right direction.” Yaron noted that the shekel’s appreciation and the expected ...
Foreign and institutional investors sold FX in Q3, supporting the shekel’s appreciation
ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 Nov 2025
The shekel continued to strengthen in the third quarter, appreciating by 2.0% against the U.S. dollar and 1.9% against the euro, following sharp gains of 9.3% and 1.5% in Q2, respectively. The appreciation reflected a decline in Israel’s risk premium and improved investor sentiment after Operatio...
Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments, forecast update – Weekly report, November 3, 2025
ISRAEL · Forecast · 04 Nov 2025
Israel enters November in a fragile but stabilizing environment. While the ceasefire with Hamas remains largely intact, negotiations toward Phase II of the Gaza arrangement have stalled, leaving uncertainty in the near term over the Gaza front and future regional arrangements. Economic data f...
Israel’s economic conditions in Q3 2025: after Iran, before the ceasefire
ISRAEL · In Brief · 03 Nov 2025
As data for August and September 2025 begin to accumulate, we now have a clearer statistical picture of Israel’s economic performance in the third quarter. The key question we seek to answer is how the Israeli economy responded to the end of the military operation against Iran and whether the rec...
Israel’s labor market remains tight, may keep monetary easing on hold
ISRAEL · In Brief · 29 Oct 2025
Three key indicators released this week confirm that Israel’s labor market remains tight. The number of job vacancies rose slightly in September to 146.9 thousand, the highest level ever recorded, with most of the increase coming from trade and manufacturing sectors. The unemployment rate remaine...