KAZAKHSTAN
Analyst
Evgeny Gavrilenkov
Former Investment Bank Chief EconomistRecent Country Insights
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 24 Dec 2025
Dec 11 Energy Ministry: Currently Kazakhstan does not see an alternative to CPC for oil supplies, but will develop additional routes in the future. Energy Ministry: Attacks on the CPC have led to losses in Kazakhstan's oil production of about 480K tons, but the plan for 2025 will be fulfilled. De...
Kazakhstan macro: Tax reform to make intra-budgetary transactions less distortive
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 22 Dec 2025
Recent budget execution statistics show the economy is in good shape, with local tax collection continuing to outperform. Mid-year, the initial 2025 target was revised upward, and by November tax revenues had hit 94.4% of that revised goal. Local budgets, which also get transfers from the republi...
Revenue flow remains uneven across different levels of the consolidated budget
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 19 Dec 2025
The Ministry of Finance released 11M25 budget execution data for various levels of the consolidated budget, including extra-budgetary funds. The consolidated budget showed a surplus of KZT2.5 trillion, compared to the government’s full-year 2025 deficit target of over KZT4.8 trln. Local budgets c...
Economic growth remained strong in November
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 16 Dec 2025
Recent monthly updates from the Bureau of National Statistics show that economic growth in November stayed strong, matching the pace of previous months. The short-term indicator, a monthly proxy for economic activity, grew by 9.1% y-o-y in 11M25, the same rate recorded in 9M25 and 8M25. Transport...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 11 Dec 2025
Nov 27 National pipeline company: KazTransOil net profit (IFRS) increased by 24% y-o-y in 9M25. Nov 28 NBK: The Bank left the base rate unchanged at 18%. NBK: The Bank has no intentions to reduce the base rate until the end of 1H26. NBK: The Bank has revised the forecast of economic growth in Kaz...
Kazakhstan macro: Exchange rate and inflation to remain key variables to watch amid the forthcoming tax reform
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 28 Nov 2025
The Kazakh parliament recently approved the updated government’s macroeconomic forecast for 2026-2028 after the final polishing of next year’s republican budget. The official forecast assumes GDP to grow by 5.4%, which is only slightly higher than the expected average annual growth for the next t...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 27 Nov 2025
Nov 15 KMG: The company and Uzbekneftegaz (Uzbekistan) signed an agreement on the Zharkyn oil exploration project in Mangystau region. President: Kazakhstan intends to increase the volume of transit of Russian gas to Uzbekistan. Nov 16 President: Mr. Tokayev welcomes Azerbaijan's accession to reg...
Republican budget tax revenues remain well behind the plan in 10M25
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 25 Nov 2025
The Ministry of Finance has not yet published a full set of budgetary statistics for 10M25 and at the time of writing this note just released a brief note with several key republican budget numbers. According to the published text, total revenues (including tax revenues, non-tax revenues, incomes...
Industrial production growth numbers remain high in 10M25, deceleration likely in 2026
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 17 Nov 2025
According to a recent publication by the Bureau of National Statistics, industrial production grew by 7.3% y-o-y in 10M25 (slightly down from 7.4% in 9M25). In October alone industrial production was up by 7.1% pointing to a gradual, albeit natural, deceleration. As usual, the official m-o-m do n...