Evgeny Gavrilenkov
Former Investment Bank Chief Economist
Alexander Kudrin
Former Investment Bank Head of Research

Recent Country Insights

Solid budgetary performance in 2M23
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 27 Mar 2023

Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Finance reported that in 2M23, the country’s consolidated budget was in surplus equal to KZT695 bn, i.e., slightly above $1.5bn. This budget incorporates the Republican and local budgets, the National Fund, and state social funds (net of mutual transfers). Revenues of the...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 24 Mar 2023

Mar 13 S&P: Oil production in Kazakhstan in Feb amounted to 1.55 mbd, while the country quota within the OPEC+ deal, was 1.63 mbd S&P: The agency confirmed credit ratings of Samruk-Kazyna (BBB-) and its subsidiaries KEGOC (BB+), KMG (BB+), KazTransOil (BB+), and KTZ (BB), the outlook has been cha...

Kazakhstan macro: economic growth to remain stable in 2023
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 22 Mar 2023

Two weeks ago, the National Bank of Kazakhstan published its bi-monthly monetary policy report and enclosed its updated macroeconomic forecast for 2023 and beyond. Apart from the usual baseline scenario, the regulator considered two others, the “optimistic” and the “pessimistic” scenarios. From t...

Economy keeps expanding in February, still unevenly
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 15 Mar 2023

Kazakhstan’s Bureau of National Statistics reported that in 2M23, the short-term indicator that captures aggregate economic activity industry, agriculture, construction, trade, transport, and communications grew by 4.0% y-o-y. Industrial output increased by 1.6% y-o-y (by 0.5% in the mining segme...

Kazakhstan macro: inflation to remain elevated in 2023, leaving limited room for base rate cuts
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 13 Mar 2023

Kazakhstan’s National Bank recently released its updated macroeconomic forecast and it expects the country’s economy can expand within the 3.5% to 4.5% range in 2023. The regulator expects the same rates for GDP growth in 2024 and 2025, quoting it as an equilibrium growth trajectory for Kazakhsta...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 09 Mar 2023

Feb 24 KazTransOil: Kazakhstan has started transporting oil to export it to Germany Feb 25 Foreign Ministry: Kazakhstan welcomes China's position on the political settlement of the Ukrainian crisis and supports a peaceful solution to this problem based on the principles of the UN Charter. Feb 27 ...

Inflation in Kazakhstan remains elevated, albeit with no signs of acceleration
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 07 Mar 2023

According to the Bureau of National Statistics, inflation m-o-m in February was 1.3%, i.e., much higher than in February 2022 (0.8% m-o-m). As a result, y-o-y inflation in February moved to 21.3% (from 20.7% a month ago), while the 6M moving average monthly inflation stayed at 1.4%, i.e., almost ...

Kazakhstan macro: strong inflow of tax revenues in the republican budget hints the economy is in good shape
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 27 Feb 2023

According to the Bureau of National Statistics the short-term indicator that takes into account economic activity in six main sectors (industry, agriculture, construction, transport, trade, and communications) grew by 5.0% y-o-y in January. These sectors represent around 60% of GDP. At the same t...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 23 Feb 2023

Feb 10 NBK: Easing monetary policy in Kazakhstan in the current conditions is impractical said NBK Chairman Mr. Pirmatov Kazakhstan Temir Zholy (KTZ): The company and the Arab Abu Dhabi Ports Group discussed the creation of trade hubs in the Kazakh cities of Astana, Alma-Ata and Aktobe Feb 13 KMG...

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