KAZAKHSTAN
Analyst
Evgeny Gavrilenkov
Former Investment Bank Chief EconomistRecent Country Insights
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 25 Mar 2026
Mar 12 Energy Ministry: The Minister instructed to strengthen the protection of strategic facilities in the oil and gas sector KMG: Mr Khasenov, CEO of KMG, called on Tengizchevroil company to bring Tengiz oil field to full capacity as soon as possible Mar 13 Government: Kazakhstan intends to inc...
Tax revenues soar in 2M26 amid VAT reform
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 20 Mar 2026
In 2M26, the republican budget posted a small deficit of about KZT0.9 trln while the full year deficit was targeted at KZT4.6 trln. The 2M26 deficit appeared small, not least because expenditures lagged as about KZT0.9 trln was left unallocated. Hence, in 2M26, expenditures accounted for 14.3% of...
Kazakhstan macro: “Never cared for games they play”
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 16 Mar 2026
On March 3, the National Bank of Kazakhstan decided to keep the base rate unchanged but hinted that it could decline in 2H26. The regulator mentioned that inflationary pressure is easing and referred to decelerating y-o-y inflation (11.7% in February versus 12.2% in January). The NBK pointed to s...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 12 Mar 2026
Feb 26 National gas company: QazaqGaz and the Qatari UCC Holding have developed a project design for the construction of a second gas processing plant at Kashagan with an annual capacity of 2.5 bcm. EBRD: The bank upgraded Kazakhstan's 2026 GDP growth forecast from 4.5% to 4.7%. Tengizchevroil: O...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 26 Feb 2026
Feb 13 World Bank: The Bank is ready to provide financing up to $1bln per year for projects in Kazakhstan in 2026-2031. National railways: IPO of Kazakhstan Railways may take place in May. KMG: The company increased oil and gas condensate production by 10% in 2025. US Embassy: The US is working w...
Kazakhstan macro: Tax reform—January budget execution statistics signal caution
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 24 Feb 2026 · 1 response
The January budget execution statistics published last week sent mixed signals, suggesting that the outcome of tax reforms orchestrated by the Kazakh government remains muted. This doesn’t mean that the reform will be unsuccessful, but it could fall short of expectations. The key element of the t...
Kazakhstan macro: January 2026 statistics look underwhelming, as economic growth in 2025 may have been overstated
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 19 Feb 2026
The Bureau of National Statistics has released its preliminary 2025 quarterly GDP figures, and as usual, only y-o-y growth rates for cumulative periods within the year are available. As we have mentioned before, the initially published numbers have never been revised in the past, so the reported ...
Statistics brings more surprises and looks increasingly volatile
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 17 Feb 2026
The Bureau of National Statistics confirmed earlier statements from authorities, announcing that GDP grew by 6.5% in 2025. While the Bureau describes this as a flash estimate, it’s almost certain to hold given the agency’s track record of never revising historical data. In nominal terms, GDP reac...
Economic statistics could look even more puzzling this year
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 13 Feb 2026
The Bureau of National Statistics has begun releasing January data, and the first reports are as puzzling as ever. With m-o-m data missing for many time series and, in some cases, m-o-m and y-o-y figures showing growing discrepancies, it looks like we can expect more statistical mysteries this ye...