PERU
Analyst
Alfredo Thorne
Former Minister of Economy and FinanceDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Impeachment risk for President Boluarte rises; we expect slowdown to 2.3% in H2; global risks led Central Bank to extend its policy rate pause
PERU · Report · 15 Apr 2025
In this report, we discuss the risk of President Dina Boluarte facing impeachment in the final year of her presidential term; we then discuss recent economic performance, and argue that the economy will decelerate to 2.3% in H2; and finally we discuss the drivers that led the Board of the Banco C...
Political risks rise; growth forecast trimmed; fiscal deficit cut to 2.5% of GDP; Central Bank bends toward global risks
PERU · Report · 18 Mar 2025
In this forecast report we cover three topics. First, we discuss the political situation, and argue that risks will rise starting on April 12th, when the 2026 electoral campaign begins. During this period, President Dina Boluarte will become vulnerable to impeachment, and we project the odds of i...
Election campaign heats up; economy grew 3.2% in 2024; new finance minister appointed; BCRP extends pause
PERU · Report · 18 Feb 2025 · 1 response
In this report, we discuss indications that the election campaign will be brought forward; improved economic performance, resulting in real GDP advancing 4.9% in December and 3.3% in full-year 2024; the appointment of José Salardi as Economy and Finance Minister; and the decision by the BCRP’s Bo...
Perú: Cabinet Reshuffle
PERU · In Brief · 01 Feb 2025 · 1 response
Last night, President Boluarte reshuffled her Cabinet and changed three ministers: Minister of Finance, José Arista; Minister of Social Inclusion, Julio Demartini; and Women and Vulnerable Population, Teresa Hernández. For weeks have been rumors of a reshuffle, and most anticipated that Interior ...
2026 elections rising to the fore; economy accelerated at end-2024; BCRP to end its easing cycle
PERU · Report · 21 Jan 2025
We discuss three topics in this report. First, we argue that politics is changing gears, with the focus turning to the 2026 election campaign. Second, we discuss economic performance. We suggest that, although the economy accelerated through November, economic cooling began in December, and we ex...
Boluarte risks impeachment; growth likely to slow in 2025, with less policy stimulus
PERU · Report · 17 Dec 2024
In this forecast report, we cover three topics. First, we discuss possible political scenarios; then we discuss our 2025 forecasts for the economy, government finances and the balance of payments; and finally we discuss our market forecasts. Our forecasts generally project greater risk, partly ar...
Can Peru avoid taking sides in the U.S.-China trade war? Economy to outperform in 2024; BCRP to pause in December
PERU · Report · 26 Nov 2024
In this report, we discuss three topics. First, we analyze the impact on Peru of the developing trade war between China and the United States. Second, we discuss Peru’s better-than-expected economic growth (we have revised up our full-year 2024 real GDP growth forecast to 3.1%, but have lowered o...
Internal security to the fore; Congress approves pension reform; BCRP to pause in November
PERU · Report · 22 Oct 2024
We cover three topics in this report. First, we discuss the recent security issues challenging Congress, and President Dina Boluarte. Then we summarize and analyze the new pension fund reform published on September 24th. Finally, we discuss the decision by the Board of the Banco Central de Reserv...
Political crisis rumbles on; growth slows, CA shifts to surplus and fiscal deficit increases; we retain our yearend forecast of PEN3.9:USD1
PERU · Report · 17 Sep 2024 · 1 response
In this report, we discuss our new quarterly forecasts, which are guided by our three scenarios: base, low and high cases. On politics, we remain firm on our base case, wherein President Dina Boluarte stays in power until the end of her term in July 2026. Moreover, we have reduced the probability...