PERU
Analyst
Alfredo Thorne
Former Minister of Economy and FinanceDatabank
Recent Country Insights
Boluarte survives; focus shifts to the economy; BCRP to cut rates in April
PERU · Report · 21 Mar 2023 · 1 response
In this report, we focus on our new forecasts. We first discuss how long President Dina Boluarte is likely to remain in power; then assess whether the Peruvian economy has fallen into recession; and, finally discuss our outlook for policy rate management by the Banco Central de Reserva del Perú (...
A political impasse; economy falls into recession; BCRP to start cutting rates in Q2
PERU · Report · 14 Feb 2023 · 2 responses
In this analysis we focus on the current political impasse, and its consequences for economic performance and monetary policy. With gridlock in Congress and the body’s related inability to approve early elections, public pressure may play a greater role. We argue that there are four possible outc...
Boluarte’s struggle for legitimacy; protests in the south hit the economy
PERU · Report · 17 Jan 2023
In this report, we focus on the repercussions of the recent public protests for the political landscape and the economy. We start by asking ourselves how new President Dina Boluarte can gain legitimacy in order to remain in power. While we argue that the government has all the resources necessary...
Political system at a crossroads
PERU · Forecast · 20 Dec 2022 · 1 response
In this report, we offer our quarterly forecasts. We first discuss the unstable political situation, and explore the different scenarios that could play out following the ousting of former president Pedro Castillo. Then we discuss our macroeconomic forecasts. Since the risks are high, we introduc...
Peru Political Crisis - What's Next?
PERU · Report · 09 Dec 2022 · 2 responses
Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring GlobalSource Partners' Peru Analyst Alfredo Thorne as he discusses the ousting of Pedro Castillo as President after his attempt to dissolve Congress and what's next for Peru under newly sworn-in President Dina Boluarte.
Peru: Castillo is ousted
PERU · In Brief · 07 Dec 2022 · 2 responses
A few minutes ago Congress voted former president Castillo impeachment and was approved by 101 votes, more than the two-thirds needed (87 votes). This followed Mr. Castillo decision a few minutes before mid-day to shut down Congress, restrict rights, impose curfew from 10pm to 4am, and called a C...
Peru: Castillo at the edge
PERU · In Brief · 02 Dec 2022
Yesterday was a bad day for President Pedro Castillo and the odds that he is ousted in the next six months are high. For once, Congress approved the third impeachment motion with 73 votes in favor, 32 against and 6 abstentions. Although Congress needs 87 votes to oust him, the opposition believes...
Congress vs. Castillo—who sacks whom?
PERU · Report · 22 Nov 2022
In this report, we try to answer three key questions: What will happen to the presidency of Pedro Castillo? Is the economy transitioning to a new normal growth rate? And when will the Central Bank end its tightening cycle? We argue that the confrontation between President Pedro Castillo and th...
Castillo’s last dance; real GDP slows to 1.5% in H2; BCRP projected to end hiking cycle at 7.5%
PERU · Report · 18 Oct 2022 · 1 response
In this report, we focus on three key topics. First, we discuss the implications for President Pedro Castillo of the decision by the Ministerio Público Fiscalía de la Nación to submit to Congress a constitutional complaint against Castillo for “leading a criminal organization.” Second, we argue t...