PERU
Analyst
Alfredo Thorne
Former Minister of Economy and FinanceDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Is this President Boluarte’s last dance? Economy grew sluggishly in Q2; PEN/USD appreciation justifies one 25 bp rate cut in the next nine months
PERU · Report · 15 Jul 2025
In this report we offer an update on Peru’s political, economic and market developments. We first discuss politics and the likelihood of President Dina Boluarte’s facing a successful impeachment before her term ends on July 28th, 2026. Although we continue to ascribe a 45% probability to Boluarte...
Political focus shifts to elections; real GDP growth forecast trimmed; local bond prices expected to slide in H2
PERU · Forecast · 17 Jun 2025
In this forecast, we examine prospects for the July 2026 general elections, and how the economy is likely to respond. In the first section, we focus on the electoral calendar and the candidates, and try to predict the winner of the presidency. It is too early for our analysis to be anything other...
Will President Boluarte be impeached? Economy booms in Q1 2025, but will slow in H2; BCRP to stand pat in 2025; Congress set to approve another pension fund withdrawal
PERU · Report · 20 May 2025
Politics took center stage in Peru in May. This report analyzes the key issues. In the first section, we discuss the Cabinet crisis, and whether it constitutes a preamble for the impeachment of President Dina Boluarte, whose governance has become fragile. Next, we discuss the robust 4.7% real GDP...
Peru: Cabinet crisis
PERU · In Brief · 14 May 2025
Under pressure from Congress, last night President Dina Boluarte sacked two ministers, the highly respected Finance Minister, José Salardi, and the Interior Minister, Julio Diaz. Apparently, she was looking for support from political groups to avoid an impeachment of her loyal Prime Minister Gust...
Impeachment risk for President Boluarte rises; we expect slowdown to 2.3% in H2; global risks led Central Bank to extend its policy rate pause
PERU · Report · 15 Apr 2025
In this report, we discuss the risk of President Dina Boluarte facing impeachment in the final year of her presidential term; we then discuss recent economic performance, and argue that the economy will decelerate to 2.3% in H2; and finally we discuss the drivers that led the Board of the Banco C...
Political risks rise; growth forecast trimmed; fiscal deficit cut to 2.5% of GDP; Central Bank bends toward global risks
PERU · Report · 18 Mar 2025
In this forecast report we cover three topics. First, we discuss the political situation, and argue that risks will rise starting on April 12th, when the 2026 electoral campaign begins. During this period, President Dina Boluarte will become vulnerable to impeachment, and we project the odds of i...
Election campaign heats up; economy grew 3.2% in 2024; new finance minister appointed; BCRP extends pause
PERU · Report · 18 Feb 2025 · 1 response
In this report, we discuss indications that the election campaign will be brought forward; improved economic performance, resulting in real GDP advancing 4.9% in December and 3.3% in full-year 2024; the appointment of José Salardi as Economy and Finance Minister; and the decision by the BCRP’s Bo...
Perú: Cabinet Reshuffle
PERU · In Brief · 01 Feb 2025 · 1 response
Last night, President Boluarte reshuffled her Cabinet and changed three ministers: Minister of Finance, José Arista; Minister of Social Inclusion, Julio Demartini; and Women and Vulnerable Population, Teresa Hernández. For weeks have been rumors of a reshuffle, and most anticipated that Interior ...
2026 elections rising to the fore; economy accelerated at end-2024; BCRP to end its easing cycle
PERU · Report · 21 Jan 2025
We discuss three topics in this report. First, we argue that politics is changing gears, with the focus turning to the 2026 election campaign. Second, we discuss economic performance. We suggest that, although the economy accelerated through November, economic cooling began in December, and we ex...