PERU
Analyst
Alfredo Thorne
Former Minister of Economy and FinanceDatabanks
Events
Recent Country Insights
Peru: Keiko moves to runoff, second place still tied
PERU · In Brief · 12 Apr 2026
First exit polls were released a few hours ago and at 9pm will be released the first quick count. The message is the Keiko Fujimori form Fuerza Popular moves to the second round with about 16% of the vote. However, the second place is tied between Rafael López Aliaga from right-wing Renovation Po...
Upcoming webinar: Peru first round results - What's next?
PERU · Report · 10 Apr 2026
Date: 13 Apr 2026 Time: 10:00 AM Eastern Time Join us after Peru's first round of elections for a live Zoom webinar featuring GlobalSource Partners' Peru Analyst Alfredo Thorne discussing what the results reveal about Peru’s trajectory and the possible impact on the economy and markets. T...
Peru: Fujimori keeps her lead, second place is tied
PERU · In Brief · 08 Apr 2026
Two more polls have been released since Sunday, one from Ipsos on Tuesday, and another from Datum today. In both polls, Keiko Fujimori from Fuerza Popular leads, and news was that Ricardo Belmont from Obras has taken the second position. Interesting, Datum calculated a simulacrum of the election...
Peru: Fujimori and Alvarez lead in the polls
PERU · In Brief · 06 Apr 2026
Last night pollsters released their latest poll and Keiko Fujimori from Fuerza Popular kept their lead in most polls. Surprising was the run of Carlos Álvarez from Pais para todos, a well known right-wing comedian and he overtook Rafael López Aliaga from Renovation Popular as the second runner. ...
Peru: The left sneaks into the presidential elections
PERU · In Brief · 25 Mar 2026 · 1 response
This morning Ipsos published its March 22nd poll and simulation. This poll was performed before the presidential debates taking place this week. Ipsos is the only pollster that simulates the presidential election using confidential ballots and we believe is the most accurate. The poll shows that ...
Peru: Prime minister resigned
PERU · In Brief · 17 Mar 2026 · 1 response
This afternoon, Prime Minister Denisse Mirelles, adverting a no-confidence vote in Congress tomorrow, decided to resign. We had expected this event and covered in our March forecast essay publish today. A few minutes ago, President José María Balcázar took oath to the new Cabinet led by Luis Arr...
Right-wing candidates take the lead; energy price shock justifies growth forecast cut and inflation forecast hike; we project BCRP policy pause for 2026
PERU · Report · 17 Mar 2026 · 1 response
In this forecast, we review our political scenarios; the impact of supply-price shocks on the economy and inflation; and the likely response by the Board of the Banco Central de Reserva del Perú (the BCRP, Peru’s central bank). Since the end of February, local politics and geopolitics have mo...
Peru: President Jeri to be impeached
PERU · In Brief · 13 Feb 2026
Last night, Congress gathered the necessary support from congress-members to call an extraordinary Congress’ session and discuss President Jeri impeachment. However, Fuerza Popular party and Congress- speaker, Fernando Rospigliosi, from the same party are making it difficult. For once, although 8...
President Jeri risks impeachment; election race heats up; fiscal deficit reached 2.2% of GDP in 2025; PEN/USD appreciation persists
PERU · Report · 10 Feb 2026
We try to answer three key questions in this report: Will Congress impeach President José Jerí? Has the government met its fiscal targets? And is the Banco Central de la República del Perú (BCRP, the central bank) departing from its usual FX intervention policy? In politics, the focus remains...