Country Analysts

Alfredo Thorne
Former Minister of Economy and Finance


Click here to access the latest Macroeconomic Databank

Recent Country Insights

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Castillo struggles to survive; 2022 GDP growth forecast cut to 1.7%
PERU - Report 17 May 2022
President Pedro Castillo has surprised commentators by successfully fending off several attempts to oust him from office. In past reports, we have argued that the opposition in Congress does not have the votes to impeach the president. However, there is another, more subtle, reason why Castillo h...

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Peru: Referendum on a Constitutional Assembly
PERU - In Brief 27 Apr 2022
On Monday and with the approval of the Cabinet, President Pedro Castillo and Prime Minister, Mr. Anibal Torres, submitted to Congress a draft proposal calling for a referendum on a Constitutional Assembly due on October 2nd, and at the time of mid-term State and Municipalities elections. The draf...

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Webinar Replay - Crisis in Peru: President Castillo against the wall
PERU - Report 15 Apr 2022
Gain insights into Peru's political crisis and gauge how the turmoil will impact the country’s political and macro outlook. Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Alfredo Thorne discussing the protests against President Castillo and the likely fallout from the crisis.

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Castillo against the wall; further downside economic risks; Central Bank to deliver two more 50-bp shots
PERU - Report 12 Apr 2022
​Faced with widespread nationwide protests, and after his advisors warned of possible serious disturbances in Lima, President Pedro Castillo delivered an April 5th midnight speech, during which he imposed an immediate 22-hour curfew in Lima and Callao. The demonstrations had begun on March 28th, ...

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Peru: President Castillo against the wall
PERU - In Brief 06 Apr 2022
Last night the political crisis reached a new high point. Although President Castillo had imposed a 22 hours curfew and suspension of individual liberties at midnight on April 5th, people went massively to the streets to protest and ask for his resignation. Protests had started on March 29th when...

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President Castillo faces impeachment; fallout from the Russia-Ukraine war
PERU - Report 18 Mar 2022
Congress on March 8th rejected the no-confidence vote in the cabinet of Prime Minister Aníbal Torres. Although President Pedro Castillo has been in office for less than eight months, this is already his fourth cabinet, and the third to undergo such a vote. The previous cabinet, led by Héctor Vale...

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Castillo’s last try, and the economic impact of the political crisis
PERU - Report 15 Feb 2022
It was not difficult to project that Pedro Castillo’s main challenge as president would be to forge a credible government. Castillo was encouraged by Perú Libre party General Secretary Vladimir Cerrón to run for president, but neither man held high expectations of Castillo succeeding. Close inspe...

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Peru's new Cabinet: First reactions
PERU - In Brief 03 Feb 2022 1 response
On Tuesday night President Castillo took oath to the new Cabinet. Of the 19 members, President Castillo changed 10, including the Prime Minister and Finance Minister. The previous Cabinet reached a crisis point when President Castillo decided not to support his Interior Minister, Mr. Avelino Guil...

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Peru: New political crisis looms
PERU - In Brief 31 Jan 2022
A few minutes ago, Ms. Mirtha Vasquez, the Prime Minister, resigned. This follows last week resignation of interior Minister, Mr. Avelino Guillen on the back of President Castillo decision to support General Gallardo in the police and failing to back his plan to clean up the police. Although the ...

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