PHILIPPINES
Analyst
Diwa Guinigundo
Former Central Bank Deputy GovernorDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Trumping monetary policy: time for BSP to tighten
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 21 Apr 2026
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) faces a clear policy imperative: shift decisively to tightening. The evidence is no longer ambiguous— inflationary pressures are broadening, deepening, and becoming more persistent. We therefore believe that the BSP will initiate tightening monetary policy in...
Stagflation is no longer a risk—it is now a policy test
PHILIPPINES · Report · 07 Apr 2026
The Philippines is entering a more dangerous phase of inflation, with March 2026 data confirming a shift from temporary supply shocks to a broader, more persistent inflation cycle. Rising oil prices, food costs, and early signs of second-round effects are pushing inflation beyond target, while ex...
Declaration of Energy Emergency: Boon or bane?
PHILIPPINES · Report · 30 Mar 2026
In response to the March 2026 Middle East conflict and subsequent 70% surge in global oil prices, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. issued Executive Order No. 110, declaring a state of national energy emergency. The Order activates the UPLIFT framework, a "whole-of-government" strategy designed to s...
Monetary policy: Wake-up call to Malacañang and Congress
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 23 Feb 2026 · 1 response
Last week, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) reduced its policy rate by another 25 basis points, extending its easing cycle amid slowing growth and inflation that remains within the 2%–4% target band. On paper, the move is well supported by macroeconomic conditions. Yet the decision also high...
RP–China dispute on the West Philippine Sea: the fourth crack between Marcos and Duterte
PHILIPPINES · Report · 18 Feb 2026
The collapse of the UniTeam alliance between President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Vice President Sara Duterte has unfolded through a series of political fractures — from disagreements over international legal cooperation, to constitutional reform maneuvering, to impeachment battles. Yet these earli...
Impeaching the nation’s two highest officials: accountability, dynastic competition and the governance stakes for the Philippines
PHILIPPINES · Report · 11 Feb 2026
The simultaneous impeachment controversies involving the Philippine President and Vice President reflect more than constitutional procedure — they reveal a struggle over succession, institutional credibility, and democratic maturity. While impeachment is designed to enforce accountability, its de...
Policy response to slumping business sentiment
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 19 Jan 2026
Amid declining confidence in the business community—reflected in various opinion polls following the flood control scandals—the Philippine government’s economic managers convened around 300 top business leaders on Friday, January 16, 2026. The meeting sought to reassure investors of the governmen...
October FDI Inflows Signal Heightened Policy and Governance Risks
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 13 Jan 2026
Foreign direct investment (FDI) net inflows to the Philippines declined by 40 percent year on year in October 2025, falling to USD 642 million from USD 1.1 billion in October 2024. While inflows were higher than in the preceding three months, suggesting some short-term stabilization, the annual c...
Growth slowdown exposes labor market vulnerabilities
PHILIPPINES · Report · 13 Jan 2026
The November 2025 Labor Force Survey points to increasing labor market vulnerability amid slowing economic growth. Unemployment rose to 4.4 percent from 3.2 percent a year earlier, employment growth weakened, labor force participation declined, and underemployment remained elevated—signaling not ...