PHILIPPINES
Analyst
Diwa Guinigundo
Former Central Bank Deputy GovernorDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Managing inflation, preserving monetary policy credibility
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 16 Jun 2026
If there is one key implication of inflation slowing from 7.2% in April to 6.8% in May, it is that the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) now has greater flexibility in calibrating monetary policy. The moderation in inflation reduces the urgency for either an off-cycle policy meeting or an aggress...
Mindanao Earthquake: A Humanitarian Crisis and a Test of Governance
PHILIPPINES · Report · 10 Jun 2026
Every year, the Philippines confronts major natural disasters, from typhoons and floods to volcanic eruptions and earthquakes. Yet 2026 has proven particularly devastating. On the morning of June 8, a powerful magnitude 7.8 earthquake struck offshore near Sarangani Province, making it one of the ...
Mindanao Earthquake: A Humanitarian Crisis and a Test of Governance
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 09 Jun 2026
Every year, the Philippines confronts major natural disasters, from typhoons and floods to volcanic eruptions and earthquakes. Yet 2026 has proven particularly devastating. On the morning of June 8, a powerful magnitude 7.8 earthquake struck offshore near Sarangani Province, making it one of the ...
Institutional instability and economic collateral damage
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 02 Jun 2026 · 1 response
Two weeks ago, we argued that if something in the Philippine political system must finally fall into the ravine, it should not be constitutional accountability. It should be the culture of impunity that has long weakened Philippine democracy. Yet recent developments in the Senate suggest the oppo...
The Philippine Senate: Impeaching the culture of impunity
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 15 May 2026
Last May 11, the Philippines’ House of Representatives overwhelmingly voted to impeach Vice President Sara Duterte on allegations involving misuse of confidential funds, unexplained wealth, SALN discrepancies, corruption, and threats against top government officials. The Articles of Impeachment w...
What in the Middle East "ceasefire" did not cease
PHILIPPINES · Report · 05 May 2026
The so-called Middle East “ceasefire” was not a true ceasefire but a fragile and ambiguous pause that failed to resolve underlying geopolitical tensions. While global markets initially reacted with optimism, the relief proved short-lived as oil prices remained elevated and volatility persisted. ...
Trumping monetary policy: time for BSP to tighten
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 21 Apr 2026
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) faces a clear policy imperative: shift decisively to tightening. The evidence is no longer ambiguous— inflationary pressures are broadening, deepening, and becoming more persistent. We therefore believe that the BSP will initiate tightening monetary policy in...
Stagflation is no longer a risk—it is now a policy test
PHILIPPINES · Report · 07 Apr 2026
The Philippines is entering a more dangerous phase of inflation, with March 2026 data confirming a shift from temporary supply shocks to a broader, more persistent inflation cycle. Rising oil prices, food costs, and early signs of second-round effects are pushing inflation beyond target, while ex...
Declaration of Energy Emergency: Boon or bane?
PHILIPPINES · Report · 30 Mar 2026
In response to the March 2026 Middle East conflict and subsequent 70% surge in global oil prices, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. issued Executive Order No. 110, declaring a state of national energy emergency. The Order activates the UPLIFT framework, a "whole-of-government" strategy designed to s...