Country Analysts

Romeo Bernardo
Former Deputy Finance Minister
Christine Tang
Former Economist, Central Bank

In The News


Click here to access the latest Macroeconomic Databank

Recent Country Insights

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Hike, cut or hold?
PHILIPPINES - In Brief 08 Jan 2019
The inflation outlook has become much more benign following price declines over the last two months. We now expect the headline rate to fall back within target (2-4%) this quarter, averaging 2.9% for the full year. The significant adjustment in our inflation forecast since December (3.9%) also co...

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December inflation drops
PHILIPPINES - In Brief 04 Jan 2019 1 response
The headline inflation rate fell sharply to 5.1 percent from 6.0 percent in November, with the price level falling for the second straight month. Similarly, core inflation eased to 4.7 percent in December from 5.1 percent in the previous month, indicating diminishing second round impacts.The lowe...

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No budget for 2019… yet
PHILIPPINES - In Brief 04 Jan 2019
2018 ended with congress failing to pass the executive’s proposed 2019 national budget, the result of an apparent spat between the two co-equal branches of government. The disagreement started back in mid-2018 on the technical issue of the executive’s proposed “cash” vs. previous years’ “obligati...

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Year end note
PHILIPPINES - Report 21 Dec 2018
Inflation surprises may have topped headlines in 2018 but as cost pressures subside, we leave readers with what we think is the more enduring economic story going forward, summarized in this chart: CHART 1 The chart shows: Widening current account deficit, which is expected to exceed 2% of GDP st...

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Inflation slows down in November
PHILIPPINES - In Brief 05 Dec 2018
Headline inflation eased to 6.0 percent year-on-year in November from 6.7 percent in October, falling near the lower end of the BSP’s forecast range of 5.8-6.6 percent for the month. This is due largely to slower price increases in selected food items namely rice, meat, fish, fruits, and vegetabl...

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Good, not great
PHILIPPINES - Forecast 23 Nov 2018
Executive Summary Local moods have soured over the past several months on strong external headwinds, i.e., the triple whammy of US monetary tightening, surging oil prices and an escalating US-China trade war, and a collection of weaker economic data, including lower GDP growth and higher inflatio...

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Policy rates hiked anew
PHILIPPINES - In Brief 15 Nov 2018
Citing the need to be proactive in managing the many external and domestic risks, the Monetary Board today raised its policy rates by 25bp, bringing the overnight RRP rate to 4.75%, a cumulative 175bp increase year to date. Even as it continued to tighten policy, it presented inflation forecasts ...

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GDP growth slides anew
PHILIPPINES - In Brief 08 Nov 2018
After the disappointment in the previous quarter, today’s news that 3Q18 GDP slowed to 6.1%, a shade below the median analysts’ forecast, was less of a surprise. The pattern of growth was similar to the earlier quarters, i.e., robust domestic demand that was offset by higher net imports. However,...

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Inflation momentum slows
PHILIPPINES - In Brief 06 Nov 2018
Headline inflation was unchanged at 6.7% year-on-year in October, reflecting slowing inflation momentum with the month-on-month rate decelerating to 0.3% from 0.9% in the previous month. The easing of price pressures may be traced largely to steady food prices even as prices of non-food items, ti...