Country Analysts

Leonid Grigoriev
Former Deputy Finance Minister
Marcel Salikhov
Director - Institute of Energy and Finance

In The News


Click here to access the latest Macroeconomic Databank

Recent Country Insights

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New US sanctions: not as bad as was feared
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 05 Aug 2019
OFAC issued clarifications on sanctions against the Russian Federation, which were announced last week. In our opinion, the explanations indicate that the direct effect of the imposed sanctions will be negligible.First, the ban applies only to sovereign debt and does not include the debt of state...

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CBR expectedly cut the key rate by 25 b.p. to 7.25%
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 26 Jul 2019
At today's meeting, CBR cut the rate by 25 b.p., as it was expected. Inflation is slowing and CBR expects to reach 4% target in early 2020. Main factors attributing to the rapid decline in inflation are weak consumer demand, strengthening of the RUB, lower prices for fruits and vegetables. At the...

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June inflation falls below 5%; monthly inflation is close to zero
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 08 Jul 2019
Rosstat published today June 2019 CPI data. As was expected from weekly estimates, June inflation was close to zero on a monthly basis (+0.04% m-o-m) while annual inflation fell from 5.1% y-o-y in May to 4.7% y-o-y. The main reason for the rapid decrease in inflation last month was food prices dy...

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CBR hints further easing in 2019; 1Q GDP growth is confirmed at +0.5% y-o-y
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 18 Jun 2019
After the widely expected 25 bp cut last week CBR directly hinted at another 1-2 cuts by year-end. So by 2Q20/3Q20 “normalization” of monetary policy is achievable (around 6.5% for the key rate). We think that another 25 bp cut is already possible at the next (July 26) meeting. Figure 1. Key mone...

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Slump persists in Q2
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - Report 04 Jun 2019
Preliminary April 2019 monthly data published last week by Rosstat shows that the Russian economy continued to be somewhat depressed in Q2, after a weak Q1 (+0.5% GDP y/y). Based on our GDP nowcast model, we expect some rebound in Q2, to 0.6%-0.8% y/y. We think some one-time factors led to such l...

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Inflation and weak economy may force CBR to cut early
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - Forecast 22 Apr 2019
1Q19 data shows that Russian economy slowed down considerably after surprise pick-up in 4Q18. GDP growth was probably below 1% y-o-y, according to our GDP nowcast. Weaker industrial production and weak household demand weigh on the economy. At the same time inflation quickly is fading out a...

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Oil & gas forecast: increase in oil production in 2019, lower pipeline gas exports
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - Report 17 Apr 2019
Before the release of macroeconomic forecast we publish an update of the oil & gas sector forecast due to its critical relevance for the economy. In 1Q19 oil production increased by another 3.4% y-o-y despite December 2018 OPEC+ agreement. Russian oil production increased by 1.7% in 2018 while...

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Budget rule and FX interventions
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - Report 15 Apr 2019
​Since November 2014 CBR abandoned its mechanism of regular FX interventions and RUB technically became free floating currency. But de facto CBR/Government have maintained instruments to influence local FX market besides traditional interest rate policy. Current operations of CBR on FX market ...

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New sanctions: how serious it can be?
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - Report 15 Feb 2019
On February 13, 2019 five US senators from both parties introduced a bill (S.482) of new sanctions on Russia. It is an updated version of the DASKA bill of last year with some new measures proposed. Given current political agenda in the US it is highly likely that some version of the bill will...

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