Country Analysts

Leonid Grigoriev
Former Deputy Finance Minister
Marcel Salikhov
Director - Institute of Energy and Finance

In The News


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Recent Country Insights

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New sanctions: how serious it can be?
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - Report 15 Feb 2019
On February 13, 2019 five US senators from both parties introduced a bill (S.482) of new sanctions on Russia. It is an updated version of the DASKA bill of last year with some new measures proposed. Given current political agenda in the US it is highly likely that some version of the bill will...

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Moody’s upgrades Russia to investment grade: we expect neutral impact
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 11 Feb 2019
Last Friday Moody’s upgraded its sovereign credit rating Russia from Ba1 to Baa3, a lowest investment grade with stable outlook. Moody's believes that Russia's stability as a sovereign borrower has decreased significantly. FX reserves cover 80% of the external debt which is main rationale for the...

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+2.3% GDP growth in 2018 will not force CBR to hike in February
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 07 Feb 2019
After two previous hikes totaling 50 b.p. we expect CBR to stand still and keep the key rate unchanged on the February 8 meeting. Favorable global financial conditions and relatively high oil prices support decision to stay still. But there are some economic news for CBR to consider. First, Rosst...

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Large revision in construction raises questions about data quality
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 01 Feb 2019
Last week Rosstat published main indicators for December 2018 which can be used to estimate last year results. On paper, it looks good. Industrial production increased 2.9% (+2.1% in 2017). Retail trade grew 2.6% (+1.3% in 2017). Real wages surged 6.8% last year (+2.9%). Based on the December dat...

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Not as bad as you may think
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - Forecast 21 Dec 2018
2018 was moderately successful for the Russian economy. Despite new round of the US sanctions in April 2018 and lower oil prices in 4Q18, GDP is set to grow 1.6% in 2018. The current strategy of the Government outlined by the presidential May decrees is to increase taxation while using these ...

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Energy forecast: Higher investment despite OPEC+ cut
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - Forecast 20 Dec 2018
Oil and gas has long been a workhorse for the Russian economy. That’s why, before making a traditional year-end economic forecast for the subsequent year, we make an explicit forecast for the Russian oil and gas sector. Current trends in oil and gas have a major influence on the domestic economy,...

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Expect CBR to stay on hold tomorrow
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 13 Dec 2018
Tomorrow will be the last meeting of the CBR´s Board of Directors this year. The meeting will be accompanied with the update of macroeconomic forecasts. At the moment there is no general consensus one the decision. Some expect CBR to stay on hold. Others call for a 25 bp hike, to 7.75%. RUONIA fu...

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October inflation data decreases probability of a rate hike in December
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 09 Nov 2018
This week Rosstat published October CPI data. Headline inflation for the month was +0.4% m-o-m (+3.5% y-o-y). Food prices increased +0.6 m-o-m% (+2.8% y-o-y), mainly due to increase in prices for meat (+1.2% m-o-m) and cereals (+1.5% m-o-m). Rather surprisingly there was continued deflation in ve...

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CBR’s meeting: +25 bp; FX purchases for Minfin will be postponed till 2019
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 14 Sep 2018
CBR decided to increase the key rate by 25 b.p. on today's meeting. The move was already priced in by the markets so monetary authorities basically had no other option but to deliver. General sentiment of the press-conference was pretty hawkish as Governor Nabiullina was trying to show that centr...

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