Country Analysts

Leonid Grigoriev
Former Deputy Finance Minister
Marcel Salikhov
Director - Institute of Energy and Finance

In The News


Click here to access the latest Macroeconomic Databank

Recent Country Insights

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Russia get the new Government, changes in economic and social positions
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - In Brief 21 Jan 2020
Today President V. Putin and new PM M. Mishustin announced the composition of the new Government. It's the most significant reshuffle of the Government in the last eight years. Some of the ministers are gone, and there are new faces. At the same time we note that most new ministers are relatively...

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Message to the Federal Assembly and the New Prime Minister
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - In Brief 15 Jan 2020
Today turned out to be rich in news from Russia.In the afternoon, President Vladimir Putin addressed the Federal Assembly and proposed a series of reforms. The main initiatives are related to changing the structure of political authority in Russia. For the most part, it is about introducing restr...

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If everything is so good, then why does everything seem so bad?
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - Forecast 23 Dec 2019
2019 was one of the best years for the Russian economy in five years. International reserves rose by $65 billion. The federal budget will turn in a robust surplus, of around 2% GDP. The RUB has appreciated 10% ytd, and the local stock market is at record highs. The CBR cut 150 bps over the year, ...

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Energy forecast: oil & gas production rise in 2020
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - Forecast 19 Dec 2019
Before the release of our macroeconomic forecast, we traditionally publish an update of the oil & gas sector forecast, due to its critical relevance to the Russian economy. Oil & gas remains a backbone of the Russian economy. We expect that in 2020 oil production will grow by 1.1%, after expand...

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CBR cut 25 bp, to 6.25%; we expect a pause next meeting
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - In Brief 16 Dec 2019
CBR’s Board of Directors decided to cut the key rate by 25 bp, to 6.25% and updated its macroeconomic forecast last Friday. It’s the fifth cut in 2019 bringing the total amount of easing this year to 150 bp, from 7.75% to 6.25%. We expect that CBR will take a pause next meeting (February 17, 2020...

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What’s driving the surge in real income?
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - Report 06 Dec 2019
Real income suddenly surged by 3.3% y/y in Q3. We haven’t seen such high income growth rates in six years. High real income growth has only been seen in periods of robust economic growth, or during periods of public sector pension and social benefits indexation. Neither occurred in Q3 2019. So th...

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The government decides to limit NWF spending
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - In Brief 25 Nov 2019 1 response
According to Vedomosti business daily, it seems that the government has finally decided how to use the National Welfare Fund (NWF) next year. The conservative approach has won. There will be no flood of extra spending coming from the NWF. So it’s a win for the Ministry of Finance and CBR if there...

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GDP growth accelerated in 3Q (+1.7% y-o-y; +0.9 in 2Q)
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - In Brief 14 Nov 2019
Rosstat published its first preliminary estimate of 3Q19 GDP growth. According to Rosstat, the GDP increased by 1.7% y-o-y after +0.9% in 2Q19 and +0.5% in 1Q. It’s an acceleration as compared to 1Н19, which was extremely weak (+0.7% y-o-y). But overall economic activity stays relatively weak. We...

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CBR cuts 50 b.p. to 6.5%. Will the be another cut in December?
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - In Brief 25 Oct 2019
CBR cut aggressively 50 bp, to 6.5%, on today’s meeting. The move was widely expected after Elvira Nabiullina hinted 'agressive actions' on October 17 interview to CNBC. CBR also cut its inflation forecast for 2019 from 4.0-4.5% which looked inadequate to a more reasonable 3.2-3.7% range. In 2020...

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