Country Analysts

Leonid Grigoriev
Former Deputy Finance Minister
Marcel Salikhov
Director - Institute of Energy and Finance

In The News


Click here to access the latest Macroeconomic Databank

Recent Country Insights

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CBR’s hike and August CPI imply a key rate higher than 7%
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - In Brief 10 Sep 2021
The CBR continued its tightening cycle and raised the key rate for the fifth time today. This time it was 25 bp, up to 6.75%, against a consensus forecast of +50 bp. While the press release about the decision was relatively dovish, CBR Governor Elvira Nabiullina indicated that the key rate might ...

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July IP data hints economy 'cooling off' in 3q21
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - In Brief 25 Aug 2021
Rosstat started publishing its data only Wednesdays. This brief is a short overview of the data published today. Industrial productionRosstat released July 2021 industrial production data. It's one of the first 'hard numbers' available for 3q21 from the national statistics office. Formally baseli...

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U.S.-German Deal on Nord Stream - 2 is a win for Gazprom
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - In Brief 26 Jul 2021
The agreement between the US and Germany to allow the completion of the Nord Stream-2 (NS2) gas pipeline looks like a victory for the Russian side. The agreement also weakens Ukraine's negotiating position when concluding a new transit agreement for 2024. The US and Germany agree that the America...

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How European CBAM may affect Russian exports
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - Report 24 Jun 2021
We made estimates based on the leaked CBAM regulation on Russia's exports to the EU. We estimate that in 2026 imports worth more than $55 billion could be regulated under CBAM. Annual payments using the indicative values ​​of the carbon intensity set by the EC and the price of GHG emissions at $...

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The Government plans to “freeze” fuel prices
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - In Brief 18 Jun 2021
Vice PM Alexander Novak held a meeting with experts last week where yours truly has also participated. The main topic was a situation on domestic petroleum markets and price increase for fuel in particular. As an outcome, Alexander Novak proposed to repeat an experience of 2018 when the Governmen...

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We expect Russian GDP to increase by +4.5% y/y based on current nowcast estimates
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - In Brief 28 May 2021
Rosstat has finally released industrial production data for April. The published results were very good: + 7.2% y / y in April after + 2.3% y / y in March. Moreover, Rosstat also revised the data for March upwards compared to the previous release. The mining industry increased output by 14.2% com...

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The government may ban gasoline exports
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - In Brief 28 Apr 2021
The government is considering the possibility of a ban on the export of gasoline. The main reasons for the possible export restrictions are related to the anti-inflationary rush of the government, which is trying to limit the growth of consumer prices, including for oil products.Since late 2020 t...

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Russian oil production increased +1.5% m/m in March, gas production surged by 12% y/y
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - In Brief 05 Apr 2021
CDU TEK published its preliminary production data for March. Oil & condensate production was restored by 0.15 mbd, to 10.25 mbd, after a decline in February 2021. Rosneft's results explain almost 2/3 of the monthly increase, but other majors have also shown positive dynamics. Growing external dem...

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Russian oil production fell in February; gas production stabilizes
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - In Brief 03 Mar 2021
According to CDU TEK data, Russian oil production (including gas condensate) 0.6% m-o-m vs +1% growth in January. Output declined despite the potential opportunity to increase it under the January OPEC+ agreement by 65 tbd (thousand barrels/day). Production decreased roughly by about the same amo...

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