RUSSIA ECONOMICS

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Country Analysts

Leonid Grigoriev
Former Deputy Finance Minister
Marcel Salikhov
Director - Institute of Energy and Finance

In The News

Databank

Click here to access the latest Macroeconomic Databank

Recent Country Insights

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Slump persists in Q2
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - Report 04 Jun 2019
Preliminary April 2019 monthly data published last week by Rosstat shows that the Russian economy continued to be somewhat depressed in Q2, after a weak Q1 (+0.5% GDP y/y). Based on our GDP nowcast model, we expect some rebound in Q2, to 0.6%-0.8% y/y. We think some one-time factors led to such l...

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Inflation and weak economy may force CBR to cut early
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - Forecast 22 Apr 2019
1Q19 data shows that Russian economy slowed down considerably after surprise pick-up in 4Q18. GDP growth was probably below 1% y-o-y, according to our GDP nowcast. Weaker industrial production and weak household demand weigh on the economy. At the same time inflation quickly is fading out a...

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Oil & gas forecast: increase in oil production in 2019, lower pipeline gas exports
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - Report 17 Apr 2019
Before the release of macroeconomic forecast we publish an update of the oil & gas sector forecast due to its critical relevance for the economy. In 1Q19 oil production increased by another 3.4% y-o-y despite December 2018 OPEC+ agreement. Russian oil production increased by 1.7% in 2018 while...

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Budget rule and FX interventions
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - Report 15 Apr 2019
​Since November 2014 CBR abandoned its mechanism of regular FX interventions and RUB technically became free floating currency. But de facto CBR/Government have maintained instruments to influence local FX market besides traditional interest rate policy. Current operations of CBR on FX market ...

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New sanctions: how serious it can be?
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - Report 15 Feb 2019
On February 13, 2019 five US senators from both parties introduced a bill (S.482) of new sanctions on Russia. It is an updated version of the DASKA bill of last year with some new measures proposed. Given current political agenda in the US it is highly likely that some version of the bill will...

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Moody’s upgrades Russia to investment grade: we expect neutral impact
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 11 Feb 2019
Last Friday Moody’s upgraded its sovereign credit rating Russia from Ba1 to Baa3, a lowest investment grade with stable outlook. Moody's believes that Russia's stability as a sovereign borrower has decreased significantly. FX reserves cover 80% of the external debt which is main rationale for the...

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+2.3% GDP growth in 2018 will not force CBR to hike in February
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 07 Feb 2019
After two previous hikes totaling 50 b.p. we expect CBR to stand still and keep the key rate unchanged on the February 8 meeting. Favorable global financial conditions and relatively high oil prices support decision to stay still. But there are some economic news for CBR to consider. First, Rosst...

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Large revision in construction raises questions about data quality
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 01 Feb 2019
Last week Rosstat published main indicators for December 2018 which can be used to estimate last year results. On paper, it looks good. Industrial production increased 2.9% (+2.1% in 2017). Retail trade grew 2.6% (+1.3% in 2017). Real wages surged 6.8% last year (+2.9%). Based on the December dat...

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Not as bad as you may think
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - Forecast 21 Dec 2018
2018 was moderately successful for the Russian economy. Despite new round of the US sanctions in April 2018 and lower oil prices in 4Q18, GDP is set to grow 1.6% in 2018. The current strategy of the Government outlined by the presidential May decrees is to increase taxation while using these ...

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