Country Analysts

Leonid Grigoriev
Former Deputy Finance Minister
Marcel Salikhov
Director - Institute of Energy and Finance

In The News


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Recent Country Insights

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Not as bad as you may think
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - Forecast 21 Dec 2018
Executive Summary 2018 was moderately successful for the Russian economy. Despite a new round of the US sanctions in April 2018 and lower oil prices in 4Q18, GDP is set to grow 1.6% in 2018. The current strategy of the Government outlined by the presidential May decrees is to increase taxation wh...

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Energy forecast: Higher investment despite OPEC+ cut
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - Forecast 20 Dec 2018
Executive Summary Oil and gas has long been a workhorse for the Russian economy. That’s why, before making a traditional year-end economic forecast for the subsequent year, we make an explicit forecast for the Russian oil and gas sector. Current trends in oil and gas have a major influence on the...

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Expect CBR to stay on hold tomorrow
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 13 Dec 2018
Tomorrow will be the last meeting of the CBR´s Board of Directors this year. The meeting will be accompanied with the update of macroeconomic forecasts. At the moment there is no general consensus one the decision. Some expect CBR to stay on hold. Others call for a 25 bp hike, to 7.75%. RUONIA fu...

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October inflation data decreases probability of a rate hike in December
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 09 Nov 2018
This week Rosstat published October CPI data. Headline inflation for the month was +0.4% m-o-m (+3.5% y-o-y). Food prices increased +0.6 m-o-m% (+2.8% y-o-y), mainly due to increase in prices for meat (+1.2% m-o-m) and cereals (+1.5% m-o-m). Rather surprisingly there was continued deflation in ve...

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CBR’s meeting: +25 bp; FX purchases for Minfin will be postponed till 2019
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 14 Sep 2018
CBR decided to increase the key rate by 25 b.p. on today's meeting. The move was already priced in by the markets so monetary authorities basically had no other option but to deliver. General sentiment of the press-conference was pretty hawkish as Governor Nabiullina was trying to show that centr...

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Lean years ahead
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - Forecast 04 Sep 2018
Executive SummaryThe Russian economy stabilized in 2017-2018, but isn’t on track for sustainable high growth. The positive impact of higher oil prices is being tempered by a new round of already-introduced and expected sanctions. Dubious domestic structural policy is another negative factor. The ...

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Fears of new sanctions, Turkey and ‘Belousov list’ put pressure on RUB
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 15 Aug 2018
RUB lost almost 5% last week based on fear of new US sanctions and negative EM sentiment. On August 2 a bipartisan group of U.S. senators has introduced a package of measures designed to protect "The Defending American Security from Kremlin Aggression Act of 2018 " (DASKAA). The bill proposes a l...

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Changes in the fiscal policy in 2019-21: Minfin’s view
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 15 Jul 2018
Ministry of Finance published its traditional draft version of “Main directions of the fiscal policy of 2019-2021” (ONBP). The documents sets general overview of fiscal policy measures in the next three years. It also contains estimates of effects of changes in the policy. The general conclusion ...

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The World Cup 2018: How much optimism is justified?
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - Report 03 Jul 2018
Executive Summary Russia is hosting the football World Cup these days and doing it pretty well, according to everyone. In this report we estimate the costs and benefits for the Russian economy associated with the World Cup. The headline cost figure is $13 bln, which is close to the 2014 Brazil co...