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Moldova struggles to pay for gas
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 17 Jan 2022
On January 13 the country paid its gas debt to Gazprom for gas bought in December 2021. Moldova is the second poorest country in Europe. It has trouble paying for gas as world prices are sky high.In October 2021 there was a state of emergency over gas prices. The country started buying gas from E...

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Armenia and Turkey negotiate normalization
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 17 Jan 2022
On January 14 the former deadly foes met at Moscow. They have agreed to a further round of talks. The date and venue are not yet set. Both have said there are no preconditions. Russia was happy to host talks. Armenia is heavily reliant on Russian largesse. Russia does not want to see a diminution...

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Former Ukrainian President flies home despite treason charges
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 17 Jan 2022
Petro Poroshenko returned on January 17. The treason charge is because he allegedly coal deals with pro-Moscow rebels. He says the charge is politically motivated. Hundreds of well wishers greeted him. Poroshenko said that Ukraine must stand up to Russia.Prosecutors are seeking an arrest warrant ...

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​Apparent Houthi attacks on Abu Dhabi highlights vulnerabilities to drones
GULF COUNTRIES - In Brief 17 Jan 2022
Preliminary indications suggest that fires in Abu Dhabi, which killed three people at a fuel depot and disrupted the airport, were caused by drones. The Houthi rebels in Yemen have claimed responsibility. The market impact so far has been relatively muted but could become more significant if ther...

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More Nazarbayev relatives being removed from posts confirms his loss of power
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 17 Jan 2022
On January 15 two sons in law of the Leader of the Nation lost their positions. Kairat Sharipbayev was head of QazaqGas. He is married to Darigha Nazarbayeva - the eldest daughter of the Leader of the Nation. Dimash Dosanov was in the KazTranOil. Timur Kulibaev (another son in law) has been remov...

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First thoughts on 2022
TURKEY - Forecast 16 Jan 2022 1 response
We deviate a little from our quarterly report format in this round because of the extremely uncertain context, sharing some preliminary thoughts and qualitative scenarios for 2022 instead. The ongoing “experiment” around the New Economic Model (NEM), which is unsustainable, in our view -- beca...

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We expect a rate hike on April 11th
ISRAEL - In Brief 16 Jan 2022
Inflation surprises on the upsideo Inflation in December increased by 0.3% m/m (expectations were for 0.1%), and 2.8% y/y. Core inflation increased by 2.7%.o Inflation surprises were mostly broad-based, with housing rental prices accelerating to 3.3% y/y (from 2.9% last month).o We expect inflati...

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GULF WEEKLY: GCC ministers visit China, pipeline consortium bond disappoints, Qatar Q3 GDP
GULF COUNTRIES - Report 14 Jan 2022
​A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Covid cases rose by two-thirds to new records, although deaths remain low. * Oil rose to $85, close to its highest since 2014, despite a resolution to Libya’s production outage and hints of progress in Iran nuclear talks ...

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Inflation remained at a 14-year peak in December, beating forecasts once again
HUNGARY - In Brief 14 Jan 2022
Forecasts by private sector analysts (with a median value of 7.1% yoy) and by the MNB (6.9% yoy given in the Q4 inflation report of late December) were defeated again by the actual 7.4% yoy headline rate of CPI-inflation in December, as reported today. This was the same number as in November, whi...

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Webinar Replay: Turkey 2022 Outlook Webinar
TURKEY - Report 14 Jan 2022
​​Cut through the uncertainty and understand what's ahead for Turkey in 2022. Visit our events calendar to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada discussing Turkey’s macro and political outlook.

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Market volatility increases as geopolitical noise hit Russia
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 14 Jan 2022
The Russian economy is waking up after a long New Year holiday break in a volatile environment caused by geopolitical noise. Compared to December 31, the Russian 10Y OFZ yields jumped by around 100 bps on January 14. The Russian ruble nearly attained almost the R/$ 77 benchmark on January 5, ahea...

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President Bolsonaro decides that the Office of the Chief of Staff must approve of the management of the public budget, the issue of the public servants’ salary raise continues to cause problems for the government, and another poll will be released today
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 14 Jan 2022
Bolsonaro’s decision undoubtedly strengthens the power of the PP party in relation to the budget issue and reduces the centrality of the decision of the Ministry of the Economy. However, the decision makes sense; the Chief of Staff is part of the Budget Board, which deals with issues related to t...

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High inflation is likely to support a rate hike in April
ISRAEL - In Brief 14 Jan 2022 1 response
December’s CPI surprises on the upside Following two months of downward inflation surprises, inflation in December reached 0.3% m/m (expectations were for 0.1%) and 2.8% y/y (up from 2.4% last month).Food prices surprised on the upside, increasing by 0.5% m/m and 3.5% y/y. Rental prices (OER) inc...

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Omicron rises (in Jamaica)
JAMAICA AND THE BAHAMAS - Report 14 Jan 2022
Last week, Thursday evening on January 6, Jamaica’s Minister of Health Christopher Tufton held an emergency press conference to mark Jamaica’s highest ever number of new daily Covid cases, at 1120, as of January 5, combined with one of our highest ever positivity rates, at 46.8% (the average for ...

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January starts with bad news
ARGENTINA - In Brief 13 Jan 2022 1 response
Consumer price inflation in December was 3,8% up from 2,5% in November and the prospects for January are still worse. The monetary base has been expanding at 12% per month since the beginning of December. The Central bank has increased the interest rate and the pace of adjustment of the official ...

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State finance secretaries meet to discuss whether the freeze on the ICMS tax on fuels should be extended, Paulo Guedes remains against granting salary raises to public servants, and a new poll on the election is expected today
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 13 Jan 2022
The meeting of the National Committee of Secretaries of Finance (Comsefaz) is scheduled for 3 p.m. The freeze was instituted in October last year amid a scenario of successive increases in fuel prices and is valid until January 31. The Minister of the Economy, Paulo Guedes, should meet with the p...

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Oil will be key to defend the bolivar - amendment
VENEZUELA - Report 13 Jan 2022
Please see the amendments to Table 2 at the end of this report. Venezuela’s first hyperinflation cycle has ended. In December 2021, inflation slowed to an average monthly rate of 19 percent and an annual rate of 686 percent. The policy framework that brought hyperinflation to a halt lasted ...

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Export growth remains strong in Q4
ISRAEL - In Brief 13 Jan 2022
Export growth remains strong in Q4 Manufacturing exports expanded by 13% saar in Q4 following growth of 25% in Q3. Export growth was concentrated in computer components, pharmaceuticals and defense industries. Manufacturing exports increased by 15% in all of 2021. In Q4, imports of raw materials ...

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No rate hike today, analysts expect slightly lower CPI-inflation for December
HUNGARY - In Brief 13 Jan 2022
The weekly deposit tender is held by the MNB today. The fixed interest rate for the tender was set at 4% again, unchanged from last week. Looking at the forint's position at EURHUF 355, the lack of any further rate hike this time is genuinely unsurprising. Indeed, the forint has appreciated sharp...

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NATO-Russia talks come to nought
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 12 Jan 2022
On January 12 the talks on Ukraine did not reach an agreement. NATO refused to rule out NATO membership. Both sides agreed to continue negotiating.Moscow wanted limits on the numbers of NATO troops deployed in Eastern Europe. NATO has not agreed to such a measure since the Cold War. Russia is off...