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Justice Fachin’s decision means Lula is eligible to run
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 08 Mar 2021
On Monday, Minister Edson Fachin, of the Federal Supreme Court (STF), decided to annul the convictions of former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the 13th Circuit Court of Curitiba. According to the minister, the cases should be the responsibility of the Federal Justice Court of the Federal...

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Politics: Governability at risk, Part II
MEXICO - Report 08 Mar 2021
The complicated governability equation of the first two years of an administration with a severe governing capacity deficit for solving the country’s most pressing problems shows adverse results for President Andrés Manuel López Obrador and his 4T project that are unlikely to be reversed before h...

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Main messages from the Emergency Amendment and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 08 Mar 2021
All sights are on the vote on the Emergency Amendment in the House. The government is working to conclude the vote this week. Once approved, the government will draft a provisional measure specifically on the stimulus aid payments. The IBGE releases data on unemployment and the IPCA for February....

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Economics: The impact of declining Pemex and CFE
MEXICO - Report 08 Mar 2021
Although Pemex and CFE reported worse results than expected for 2020, no one could really claim to be terribly shocked by the dire state of their income statements and balance sheets. It’s a tragedy that has been in the making for quite some time, but one that raises serious concerns about the fu...

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GDP in 2020 and Some Indications for 2021
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 08 Mar 2021
The deepest of all recessions tracked by the CODACE lasted two quarters and caused GDP in 2020 to contract by 4.1%. On the demand side, the performance of household consumption was fundamental for the recovery that occurred in the third and fourth quarters. The greatest contribution came from the...

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Sound start of vaccinations points to light at the end of the tunnel
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - Report 08 Mar 2021
A series of important events in February gives us indications of what to expect in the near future. First, the vaccination process began on February 16th, and as of March 4th, 304,490 people, or 3.9% of the target population of 7.8 million, had been vaccinated. The goal is to vaccinate at lea...

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The spike in inflation expectations is less justified in Israel
ISRAEL - Report 08 Mar 2021
* Private consumption is set to accelerate as the economy has opened up significantly. * The fiscal deficit reached 12.4% of GDP; we expect a lower deficit of 8.5% by year-end. * Inflation expectations (as reflected in the bond market) have moved higher, but we think the inflation enviro...

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Mediocre numbers for industry and retail sales in January
HUNGARY - In Brief 08 Mar 2021
Industrial output changed by +0.2% mom, -3% yoy on sda basis in January, following a much better +1.4% yoy in Q4 2020. Similarly, retail sales changed by +0.5% mom, -0.9% yoy on sda basis in January, representing no improvement from -0.9% yoy in Q4. All figures are in volume terms, of course. In ...

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The spike in inflation expectations is less justified in Israel
ISRAEL - In Brief 07 Mar 2021
Inflation expectations have increased in Israel (and globally) Yet, Israel has had a very low inflationary environment in recent years. The structural current account surplus will continue to support appreciation. In addition, Israel’s hi-tech service sector will continue to attract inflows. Assu...

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On myths and illusions
TURKEY - Report 07 Mar 2021
The Erdogan government has failed to suppress the raging COVID-19 epidemic or provide adequate financial aid to those who suffer from its consequences. A hasty decision to ease curfews and other social restrictions is backfiring badly, jeopardizing the all-critical summer tourism season. All p...

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Cost of flights in Russia rises dramatically
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 07 Mar 2021
On March 3 Kommersant reporetd the hike in air fares. Russia is open to tourists from certain countries. The average price for a flight from Russia to a domestic destination was USD 212 in March 2021. That is 40% up from what it was just before coronavirus.Tickets to Dubai are 100% up YoY. The sa...

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Kolomoisky designated corrupt by the US
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 06 Mar 2021
On March 5 the United States stated that Ihor Kolomoisky is guilty of significant corruption. He and his close relatives have therefore been banned from entering the United States. It is speculated that the banned list might be extended to cover his associates.The statement against Kolomoisky rel...

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​Covid watch
PHILIPPINES - In Brief 06 Mar 2021
Excitement this week over the rollout of donated Chinese vaccines and arrival of more from Covax has, by the weekend, been doused by reports of rising covid19 infections, with the more transmissible variants of the coronavirus having been detected locally. Yesterday, the health department reporte...

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US imposes sanctions on oligarch Ihor Kolomoyskyy, big political reshuffle is on agenda
UKRAINE - In Brief 05 Mar 2021
Today, on March 5th the Secretary of state Antony J. Blinken announced “the public designation of oligarch and former Ukrainian public official Ihor Kolomoyskyy due to his involvement in significant corruption”. Sanctions were also imposed on members of Ihor Kolomoyskyy’s immediate family. Mr. Bl...

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MTS starts pilot 5G network in Moscow
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 05 Mar 2021
On March 5 Russia's main cellphone carrier began the scheme. It has started 14 hotspots in the city center around tourist attractions and the financial district.Those taking part in the pilot scheme are smartphone owners. They will get ultra HD videos and cloud gaming. Technicians are striving to...

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Flying start for Russian retail giant's IPO
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 05 Mar 2021
On March 5 it was announced that FixPrice's IPO in London has gained USD 2 billion in investment. This exceeded expectations. The IPO is now being increased. This is record breaking for a Russian retail company. It is the greatest Russian listing in the UK since 2007.FixPrice is selling shares at...

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GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ postpones taper, Khashoggi report reverberates, Kuwait forms cabinet
GULF COUNTRIES - Report 05 Mar 2021
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines include: * OPEC+ surprised markets by keeping cuts unchanged for April, including Saudi’s extra 1m b/d. * Iran rejected an EU proposal for talks but there were hints of a softening later in the week after the US withdrew a cr...

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​Inflation rises to 4.7%
PHILIPPINES - In Brief 05 Mar 2021
The headline inflation rate rose again from 4.2% in January to 4.7% in February. However, compared with previous months, inflation momentum weakened significantly with the month-on-month inflation rate slowing to 0.2% from an average of over 1% in the last three months. This is due mainly to stea...

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RUB falls as Western sanctions are expected
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 05 Mar 2021
On March 5 the Russian currency took a hit due to rumors that the UK and US intended to introduce swinging sanctions. The RUB fell 1% and was worth 74.5 to the USD. Bloomberg reported that asset freezes and travel bans could be introduced on billionaires suspected of being close to Putin. Limitat...

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CHILE: ​Another go at pensions?
CHILE - In Brief 04 Mar 2021
Exactly a year after the first case of Covid-19 was confirmed in Chile, some eight months after Congress approved the first 10% withdrawal from private pensions (AFP), and four months after it approved the second withdrawal, President Sebastián Piñera is trying to get ahead of the game by proposi...