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The MNB and the EPP: the status quo remains in both areas
HUNGARY - In Brief 21 Nov 2019
Following unsuccessful attempts to break out on both sides, the forint seems to have settled down in the EURHUF 330-335 trading range again. From the point of view of fundamental analysis, this seems to be a logical development.One recent event in this respect was Q3's better-than-expected growth...

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Another round of elections appears increasingly likely
ISRAEL - In Brief 21 Nov 2019
The head of Blue and White (Gantz) announced that he has failed to form a coalition in the 28 days allotted to him, following a similar period in which Netanyahu tried to form a government.We now go to a 21-day period in which anyone can try to form a coalition, but this will require the approval...

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Russia returns 3 Ukrainian naval boats
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 20 Nov 2019
On November 18 Russia handed back 3 Ukrainian naval vessels which were seized a year ago. The 24 Ukrainian sailors were arrested when the boats were seized remain in custody. The return of the vessels is a confidence building measure as part of the peace process.

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GOVERNMENT SUBMITS NEW TAX REFORM
ECUADOR - In Brief 20 Nov 2019
Minister Martinez will be submitting today a new tax reform much leaner than the failed bill of last week. The new bill needs to have different proposals to be considered as new piece of legislation and be treated as urgent and be in effect next year. This reform if approved will help the governm...

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Land reform in Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 20 Nov 2019
A bill is going through the Rada (Ukrainian Parliament) that would speed up land reform. There is a seven year minimum term for the lease of farm land. The government is trying to abolish this limit. There are restrictions on the sale of 41 million hectares. In 2001 a law was passed which banned ...

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Essential CIS Politics: November 2019
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - Report 19 Nov 2019
• The Ukrainian conflict is de-escalating but peace is far from assured. • The Russia-Africa Summit was a major success for Russia, which is expanding its influence on that continent. • In Central Asia a common energy market has been agreed but this idea is still in the embryonic stage. • Arme...

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Russian PMC struggling in Mozambique
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 19 Nov 2019
In September 2019 200 men from the Russian Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner arrived in Mozambique. They are paid up to USD 3 000 per month which is much cheaper than other PMCs who bid for the job of assisting Mozambique defeat Islamic State. Islamic State is threatening the northern Cabo De...

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Economics: Mixed credit market signals in 3Q19
MEXICO - Report 18 Nov 2019
The economic slowdown has partially discouraged businesses from taking out loans or tapping into other financing sources in Mexico, but demand for consumer credit remains strong while mortgages and other housing-related credit grew slightly. We observed the private sector making more debt pl...

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The “Alliance for Brazil” marks a restructuring of Brazil’s party system and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 18 Nov 2019
Arrests after a higher court conviction will be a point of discussion in the Lower House and Senate. Wednesday is the deadline for the presentation of amendments to MP #905/19, which deals with labor contracts. The Senate will vote on the Parallel Pension Proposal. On Thursday, the First National...

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Politics: Dismantling checks and balances
MEXICO - Report 18 Nov 2019
President López Obrador continues to make significant progress in concentrating power in the presidency to the detriment of all other political institutions. By steadily re-engineering and re-staffing the entire institutional infrastructure, the administration is eliminating any potential restrai...

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Head of the President Office complains about the IMF negotiations
UKRAINE - In Brief 18 Nov 2019
Local web-site The Бабель wrote about an ‘off the record’ meeting of Andriy Bohdan, the Chief of Staff of the President Office with foreign and local journalists on November 15. Journalists of The Бабель did not participate at the meeting but had a talk with those who were invited. Allegedly at t...

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The old story repeats itself again
HUNGARY - Report 18 Nov 2019
By now, readers may have become somewhat bored by reading all the repeated claims by forecasters that the economy is now genuinely set to lose its growth momentum, after a period of heavy resistance to the weak European business cycle. Sharing the consensus view, we still believe that sooner or l...

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Yandex ownership is changing
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 18 Nov 2019
United Russia Deputy Anton Gorelkin put forward a bill to restrict foreign ownership of internet companies. A Public Interest Foundation (PIF) will be set up with the authority to forbid the sale of 10% of Yandex's voting shares or economic interests to any party. There will be a board of 11 cont...

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Indigenous groups stronger, Moreno weaker
ECUADOR - Forecast 18 Nov 2019 1 response
Despite a large national consensus regarding the complicity of the indigenous groups in the violent riots of last October, there is no doubt that they emerged stronger from the protests while Moreno and the government are now weaker than before. Democracy, if we believe is there one in Ecuador, e...

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Soft core inflation and weak underlying growth support a rate cut
ISRAEL - Report 18 Nov 2019
Although headline GDP growth was robust, GDP growth excluding inventories actually contracted in Q319. The quarter witnessed a contraction of exports, investment in capital goods, and non-durable consumption per capita. We think that both the latest CPI and GDP data support a rate cut of 0.15% on...

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Monitoring the pace of recovery
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 18 Nov 2019
There are no doubts that the economy has been rebounding, influenced by rising household consumption and growth of the service sector. The most recent monthly indicators point to continued growth in the third quarter, mainly led by household consumption, in turn driven by a combination of persist...

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​Gulf weekly: Kuwait’s government resigns and Aramco downsizes IPO
GULF COUNTRIES - Report 18 Nov 2019
The Gulf Weekly is intended as a skimmable summary of key developments, overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Key headlines include: * Aramco has scaled back its IPO to 1.5% at a $1.6-1.7trn on weak foreign demand. * Kuwait’s government resigned, amidst signs of a rift be...

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Belarus argues with Russia over warplanes
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 18 Nov 2019
On November 15 President Lukashenko of Belarus complained that Russia was charging an extortionate amount for military aircraft. He threatened to end a common border that the two had established. Su-30 SM fighters are being purchased by Belarus. According to Belarus they were offered the planes f...

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​No Christmas cheer on the horizon
TURKEY - Report 17 Nov 2019
After a very brief period of confusion, senior US Senators began to repeat sanctions threats if S-400 anti-missile systems are activated. Ankara’s official position is that they will be made operational, but the dropping of any reference to a deadline can be viewed as a slim hope that the process...

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Normandy format meeting agreed on Dec 9
UKRAINE - In Brief 16 Nov 2019
Yesterday, on November 15, President Office informed that meeting under Normandy format (France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine) will do happen on December 9. Over the last few months President Zelenskiy has been striving to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss potential ways of de-escal...