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Riots in Uzbekistan leave at least 18 dead
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 04 Jul 2022
On July 4 the government announced the death toll in the Karakalpakstan Region. The government proposed a constitutional amendment which would have removed the region's right to declare independence. The unrest is the most serious outbreak of unrest since Mirziyoyev became president in 2016. Diso...

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A hawkish message from the BoI
ISRAEL - In Brief 04 Jul 2022
Rates up 0.5%, with a clear hawkish tone Today’s rate hike of 0.5% to 1.25% came as no surprise, but the monetary statement and Governor Yaron’s press conference was clearly hawkish. The MPC sees robust growth (“activity at a high level”), a tight labor market (“at full employment environment”), ...

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Russia takes Lysychansk
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 04 Jul 2022
On July 3 Ukraine confirmed that it had withdrawn from the eastern city. This is the first city that Russia has taken faster than Western pundits predicted. The city is on the west bank of Severidonetski River and on high ground. It had been thought that Ukraine could hold it for weeks as they di...

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Inflation approaches 80%
TURKEY - In Brief 04 Jul 2022
Consumer prices rose by 5%, m/m, in June, broadly in line with the market consensus, with the 12-month rate thus rising further to 78.6% from 73.5% in May -- the highest level since September 1998. Producer prices also rose sharply by 6.8% in the month, taking the 12-month PPI-rate to 138.3% from...

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Uzbekistan's proposed constitutional changes spark unrest
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 04 Jul 2022
On July 3 the president suddenly scrapped a plan to take away Karakalpakstan's right to secede. The autonomous republic is home to an indigenous minority. They only became part of Uzbekistan in 1936. There were large scale protests forcing the move. Protestors tried to occupy public buildings. On...

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Economic Minister Martín Guzman´s resignation forces Alberto Fernandez hand
ARGENTINA - In Brief 04 Jul 2022
Saturday’s resignation of Economic Minister Martín Guzman (MG), which he made public through his personal Twitter account, rather than the official communication channels, took the political spectrum by surprise. Although since last year´s mid-term elections, and in particular since the IMF agree...

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Calmer politics, slower economy
TURKEY - Report 03 Jul 2022
President Erdogan confused everyone with his performance during and after the NATO Summit. He first conceded to Swedish and Finnish accession in return for vague promises of help with Turkey’s war against terror, topped by support from the Biden administration for the delayed F-16 sale. He later ...

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0.5% hike expected today; markets will follow the BoI macro forecast closely
ISRAEL - In Brief 03 Jul 2022
Macro factors support more aggressive tightening:  Core inflation accelerated to 3.65% y/y in May from 3.4%.  Inflation expectations one year ahead in the bond market are over 4%.  Economic growth appears fairly steady, with private consumption expanding (credit card purchases up 6% saar in Ma...

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Ukraine bombs Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 03 Jul 2022
On July 3 explosions in Belgorod killed 3 people. 50 buildings were destroyed or damage. The city is 40 km from Ukraine. Ukraine has not claimed or denied being behind the attack. Russia claimed to have shot down 2 Ukrainian drones.Lysyschansk, Ukraine remains the vortex of the war. Russian Force...

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Wall on Belarus-Polish Border
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 02 Jul 2022
On July 1 Poland announced it had completed the steel wall. The aim of the wall is to stop illegal immigrant crossing into Poland and therefore the EU. Belarus previously sent illegal immigrants to EU countries to punish them for sanctions.Th 186 km border is tense. Belarus is an ally of Poland. ...

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Missile strike kills 21 civilians in Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 02 Jul 2022
On July 1 a missile hit an apartment block in Odessa Region. Russia denied being behind the attack. The missiles were launched from planes flying over the Black Sea. Germany condemned the attacks as cruel.Zelensky said that the EU should admit Ukraine to full membership quickly. North Macedonia h...

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The South African bond market is once again under stress after a good start in 2022
SOUTH AFRICA - Report 01 Jul 2022
As market volatility has intensified globally on the back of a myriad of headwinds including elevated inflation rates that have led to a normalizing of policy rates sooner and at more accelerated rates than markets initially anticipated, the South African bond market, too, is experiencing increas...

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Russian auto industry imploding
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 01 Jul 2022
In May 2022 car production was down 97% YoY. That is according to the Russian statistical agency. Auto manufacturing declined at the beginning of the war but it has taken several months for the impact of sanctions to be felt. Sanctions means that Russia cannot access vital components. Moreover, a...

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Essential CIS Politics: July 2022
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - Report 01 Jul 2022
* Russia has taken Severodonetsk after weeks of bombardment. * The EU gives Ukraine and Moldova candidate status. * Ukraine admits its situation is difficult as deaths mount. * Kazakhstan changed its constitution, stripping Nazarbayev of his title. * EU continues to tighten sanct...

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GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ kicks the can, Saudi provides liquidity for banks, Tahnoun visits Doha
GULF COUNTRIES - Report 01 Jul 2022
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ didn’t announce September allocations, and Macron worried about Saudi and UAE capacity. * US-Iran nuclear talks in Doha apparently made no progress but should reconvene in a few weeks. * Coronavirus infections have ...

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Bulgaria expels 70 Russian diplomats
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 01 Jul 2022
On June 30 Sofia expelled them for activity incompatible with diplomatic status. The Russian Ambassador has not been expelled despite her openly insulting the Bulgarian Government as ''Western lackeys.'' Moscow has reacted angrily. It has threatened to close its embassy in Bulgaria. Bad relations...

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Russian sovereign debt: The market becomes local
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - Report 01 Jul 2022
International holders didn’t receive interest payments on two issues of Sovereign Eurobonds by the expiration of the grace period despite all the efforts of the Finance Ministry, and the event of default was finally observed. However, Russian authorities are trying to deliver payments to investor...

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Webinar Replay: Peru – Castillo walks a tightrope as the economy struggles
PERU - Report 01 Jul 2022
Will Castillo stay in government? How deep is the economic deceleration? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Alfredo Thorne discussing Peru's ongoing political crisis and its impact on the country's economic outlook.

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A new increase in the monetary policy rate
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - In Brief 01 Jul 2022
Yesterday, the Central Bank decided an increase of 75 basic points in the monetary policy rate. The rate of the permanent facility for liquidity expansion (1-day Repos) increases from 7.00% to 7.75% per year and the interest-bearing deposit rate (Overnight) from 6.00% to 6.75% per year. This is t...

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The Senate approved the PEC on Fuels, next week is the penultimate week of legislative activity, and former President Lula and Geraldo Alckmin will meet with Fiesp businessmen next week
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 01 Jul 2022
To guarantee approval, the rapporteur of the PEC on Fuels, Senator Fernando Bezerra, had to make some compromises. Bezerra included a R$ 200 gasoline voucher per month for taxi drivers, at a cost of R$ 2 billion, and the allocation of R$ 500 million to the Alimenta Brasil program. Next week will ...