RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 19 Jan 2019

The Bank of Russia announced on 9 January that in June it dumped USD 101 Billion in holdings. Reserves have been shifted to USD 44 Billion worth of RMB, USD 44 Billion worth of EUR and USD 21 Billion worth of JPY. This reduces exposure to US sanctions.

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - Report 18 Jan 2019

RUSSIA:US withdrawal from Syria presents opportunities and problems for RussiaTrump announced that the US is withdrawing troops from Syria. This is welcome news in Russia since the Americans sometimes bombed Russia's Syrian allies. On the other hand American help against ISIS was sometimes useful...

HUNGARY - Forecast 18 Jan 2019

In our new quarterly forecast, we do not take into account the possible negative impacts of major international economic, financial or political debacles such as e.g. a potential no-deal Brexit on 29 March. Even though the British parliament’s NO vote to the government’s Brexit proposal a few day...

UKRAINE - Forecast 18 Jan 2019

Ukraine’s economy was clearly experiencing a healthy recovery in 2018. GDP sped up to +3.2% y/y, from +2.5% y/y in 2017. Inflation slowed to +9.8% ytd from +13.7%. The hryvnia remained largely stable, losing a negligible 2.2% on average through the year, and even strengthening in the last days of...

SOUTH AFRICA - Report 17 Jan 2019

Today the South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee completed its first of six meetings to be held in 2019 to decide the country’s interest rate path. In line with market expectations, the MPC decided to leave the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6.75%, hence the prime rate also ...

CHILE - Report 17 Jan 2019

Executive Summary Economic activity varied greatly from half to half in 2018, with H1 growth running at 5%, and signs of recovery in machinery and investment. But H2 saw deceleration, with activity and consumption growth slowing in Q3.Today the economy seems to be growing at 3%, and we expect 201...

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 17 Jan 2019

On 15 January Prime Minister Medvedev announced that the government will probably introduce a regulatory guillotine in Russia. In the next two years outdated business regulations will be repealed. Regulations found to be unnecessary will be scrapped and business is elated. Overregulation stymies ...

INDIA - Report 17 Jan 2019

The best measure of business cycle conditions in India is the coincident indicator, which is a linear combination of well-measured underlying indicators. The coincident indicator deteriorated slightly in Oct-Dec 2018, to +2.68% above trend.The leading indicator gives us a sense of how the coincid...

MEXICO - Report 16 Jan 2019

Can the recently-passed 2019 Budget deliver fiscal results consistent with public sector debt stability? How will AMLO's policies and outlook impact the country's oil industry and its potential to bolster government revenue and economic activity? How will AMLO fund his top priorities, and how wil...

HUNGARY - In Brief 16 Jan 2019

Speaking at the Euromoney conference in Vienna, MNB vice governor Nagy said that in case their 'core inflation adjusted for the impact of changes in indirect taxes' indicator reaches or exceeds 3% yoy, the MNB will conclude that inflation has reached the Bank's medium-term target on a sustainable...

SOUTH AFRICA - Report 16 Jan 2019

The African National Congress (ANC), the governing party in South Africa since the beginning of democracy in 1994, has delivered its election manifesto for the upcoming country’s general elections to be held during May of this year. By all accounts, these are likely to be the toughest elections t...

TURKEY - In Brief 16 Jan 2019 2 responses

In line with the consensus, the CBRT’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) kept the policy rate (one-week repo rate) at 24% (simple) today. Recall that this is the third consecutive meeting that the Bank left rates unchanged, since it had raised the policy rate by 625 bps on September 13th (see chart...

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 16 Jan 2019

The President of Zimbabwe visited Moscow on 14 January. He met executives of Alrosa which controls 25% of the world's diamonds. Sergei Ivanov heads Alrosa and is Putin's former chief of staff. Finance Minister Siluanov is also on its board. Zimbabwe desperately needs trade due to its fuel shortag...

TURKEY - In Brief 15 Jan 2019 1 response

The ebb and tide of the bromance between presidents Erdogan and Trump ought to be subject of inquiry for Hollywood screen writers and psychologists, but as a humble political commentator, I’m compelled to focus only on the very boring angle of Syria, which is one of the most pressing points of te...

HUNGARY - In Brief 15 Jan 2019

The headline rate of CPI-inflation fell to 2.7% yoy in December from 3.1% yoy in the previous month, in line with consensus expectation. So far the good news...The bad one is that there was more in the total monthly drop of the CPI (by 0.3%) caused by fuel prices (-6.9%) than we expected, whereas...

BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 14 Jan 2019

Executive Summary The Ministry of the Economy is expected to present the Pension Reform proposal to President Bolsonaro. The idea is to send it to Congress in February. Bolsonaro meets with the President of Argentina, Mauricio Macri. On Thursday, the Central Bank releases the GDP preview (IBC-Br)...

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 14 Jan 2019

Overview During the election campaign, Bolsonaro avoided talking about economic issues, alleging lack of knowledge of the subject. He stated that the questions should be put to Paulo Guedes. However, after assuming office, he provoked some unnecessary and costly clashes by revealing his intention...

ECUADOR - Report 14 Jan 2019

President Moreno has given preferential attention to the reconstruction of democratic institutions, achieving important even if insufficient outcomes. However, restoration of the macroeconomic and fiscal equilibrium still evidences weaknesses in its conceptual and practical development. A lack of...

MEXICO - Report 14 Jan 2019

Economic outlookMacroeconomic risk conditions during 2017 and 2018The Mexican economy experienced conditions of notable uncertainty and risk during 2017 and 2018, largely in response to developments internationally and the complicated evolution of Nafta modernization trade talks between Mexico, t...

HUNGARY - In Brief 14 Jan 2019

Tomorrow at 9am BUD time, the KSH is scheduled to publish its consumer price data for December. Analysts contributing to Portfolio.hu's poll expect another sharp drop by the headline rate, to 2.7% yoy from November's 3.1%yoy, and we agree with that forecast. In our own spreadsheet, this result wo...