RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 23 Sep 2020

Belarus inaugurated Lukashenka for his 6th consecutive term. The ceremony was not announced in advance. Usually the event is trailed and broadcast live on TV.The public was taken by surprise. Small spontaneous protests took place.

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - Report 23 Sep 2020

The Russian ruble remained under pressure for some time, aggravated recently by fears of the COVID-19 pandemic's regaining momentum (both in Russia and Western Europe) and potential new sanctions against Russia. It looks as though sanctions are mounting on Russia permanently, so the pressure on t...

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 23 Sep 2020

On September 22 it was reported that Russian banks increased their gold reserves by 25% in August. Reserves are now 121 tonnes. That is 10% greater than the previous all time high in 2019. Gold reserves are now worth 7.5 billion so said the Central Bank of Russia.The rise in gold reserves could b...

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 23 Sep 2020

The downgrade came amidst an impasse between the government and parliament about financing the large deficit, either through a debt law or by drawing on sovereign wealth. This is part of broader governance challenges that make it nearly impossible to implement fiscal reform. We see a potential sc...

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 23 Sep 2020

On September 21 Aeroflot published data showing that their domestic passenger numbers in August 2020 were almost as high as in August 2019. That was 3.6 million Russia's national airline still has far fewer international passengers than is usual for the time of year. It is 90% down YoY. As border...

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 23 Sep 2020

On September 21 it was announced in the London Stock Exchange that Yandex is purchasing a new Russian bank called Tinkoff. The price is USD 5.5 billion. The agreement has not yet been inked. Tinkoff shareholders have to vote on it.Yandex will buy Tinkoff shares for USD 27.64 apiece. That is a 6% ...

BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 22 Sep 2020

During his opening speech at the United Nations (UN) General Assembly, President Jair Bolsonaro sought to address two issues for which Brazil is highly criticized in the international community: environmental policy and management of the coronavirus pandemic. It was a defensive speech, stating th...

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 22 Sep 2020

The European Court of Justice ruled on September 17 that restrictive measures on Russian hydrocarbons are lawful. These are sanctions in retaliation for Russian actions viz. Ukraine. The ECJ is the supreme court of the European Union. The sanctions have been in place since 2014. EU countries cann...

HUNGARY - In Brief 22 Sep 2020

In the first place, this was present in the revised numbers of the MNB's macro forecast, as today's rate-setting meeting was one to discuss the quarterly inflation report, the details of which will be made available on Thursday this week. The Bank's GDP growth forecast for this year was cut very ...

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Forecast 22 Sep 2020

The quality of a projection depends on the reliability of the indications given by the government about its economic policy bearings. If it respects the spending cap and wins approval of new reforms that strengthen the fiscal anchor, the economic recovery will be facilitated. But the speed of the...

CHINA ADVISORY - Report 22 Sep 2020

There was a softening on the retail side, with slower auto and property sales, and a fall in metro rail activity. Film attendance trended higher for most of the week, which is positive for continued confidence in domestic safety measures. Traffic congestion was higher, as well.

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 22 Sep 2020

On September 21 EU leaders on Brussels were unable to impose sanctions on Belarus due to Cypriot objections. Cyprus is the smallest EU member but all EU members have the right to veto sanctions. Belarussian opposition leader Svitlana Tikhanouskaya called for sanctions. Latvia and Lithuania are ad...

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 22 Sep 2020

On September 20 Moscow announced that flights will be resumed to South Korea, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Belarus from September 27. Citizens and permanent residents of aforementioned countries shall be permitted to enter Russia. These four nations are also accepting Russian citizens. Russia alrea...

CHILE - Report 21 Sep 2020

Economic activity continues to be hit hard by the pandemic, but seems to be recovering faster than expected. In July, the Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMACEC) surprised on the upside. In line with the IMACEC, the gradual recovery in retail sales continued in July, and the result surprised ...

MEXICO - Report 21 Sep 2020

The latest GEA-ISA quarterly survey of opinion among the country’s registered voters recorded a continuing shift toward increasingly negative perceptions of the current state of the country and the extent to which the economic crisis is upending people’s lives six months into the pandemic. Since ...

HUNGARY - In Brief 21 Sep 2020

The are two new pieces of evidence for this. One is the weekend decision to extend the existing mandatory moratorium on the service of bank debt generated before March 2020. As PM Orbán announced on Saturday, the moratorium, which affects 1.6 million individuals and 60k enterprises in the context...

BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 21 Sep 2020

Senator Márcio Bittar (MDB-AC), rapporteur of the budget, may present a proposal creating a social program to replace the emergency aid payments. On Saturday, September 26, electoral advertising begins ahead of the November municipal elections. This week's Talking Points * Evaluation of po...

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - Report 21 Sep 2020

* Russia’s economic recovery has continued slowly but there are energy price worries. * Nord Stream 2 continues, with some calls for Germany to cancel it. * In Belarus the president is holding on and has secured Russian support. * In Ukraine, the ceasefire is at risk.

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 21 Sep 2020

On September 20 Russian Finance Minister Siluanov announced that Belarus will use some of the latest 1.5 billion to repay a debt to Russian state gas company Gazprom. USD 1 billion will be lent to Belarus by the end of December 2020. A further USD 500 million will be lent early in 2021. Belarussi...

ISRAEL - Report 21 Sep 2020

Inflation in August surprised on the downside, with core inflation moving deeper into negative territory (-0.5% y/y). Despite recent indicators of growth acceleration, the renewed closure will clearly reverse this trend. The combination of slowing growth and pronounced deflation support a more ac...