RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 17 Jan 2022

On January 13 the country paid its gas debt to Gazprom for gas bought in December 2021. Moldova is the second poorest country in Europe. It has trouble paying for gas as world prices are sky high.In October 2021 there was a state of emergency over gas prices. The country started buying gas from E...

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 17 Jan 2022

On January 14 the former deadly foes met at Moscow. They have agreed to a further round of talks. The date and venue are not yet set. Both have said there are no preconditions. Russia was happy to host talks. Armenia is heavily reliant on Russian largesse. Russia does not want to see a diminution...

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 17 Jan 2022

Petro Poroshenko returned on January 17. The treason charge is because he allegedly coal deals with pro-Moscow rebels. He says the charge is politically motivated. Hundreds of well wishers greeted him. Poroshenko said that Ukraine must stand up to Russia.Prosecutors are seeking an arrest warrant ...

GULF COUNTRIES - In Brief 17 Jan 2022

Preliminary indications suggest that fires in Abu Dhabi, which killed three people at a fuel depot and disrupted the airport, were caused by drones. The Houthi rebels in Yemen have claimed responsibility. The market impact so far has been relatively muted but could become more significant if ther...

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 17 Jan 2022

On January 15 two sons in law of the Leader of the Nation lost their positions. Kairat Sharipbayev was head of QazaqGas. He is married to Darigha Nazarbayeva - the eldest daughter of the Leader of the Nation. Dimash Dosanov was in the KazTranOil. Timur Kulibaev (another son in law) has been remov...

TURKEY - Forecast 16 Jan 2022 1 response

We deviate a little from our quarterly report format in this round because of the extremely uncertain context, sharing some preliminary thoughts and qualitative scenarios for 2022 instead. The ongoing “experiment” around the New Economic Model (NEM), which is unsustainable, in our view -- beca...

ISRAEL - In Brief 16 Jan 2022

Inflation surprises on the upsideo Inflation in December increased by 0.3% m/m (expectations were for 0.1%), and 2.8% y/y. Core inflation increased by 2.7%.o Inflation surprises were mostly broad-based, with housing rental prices accelerating to 3.3% y/y (from 2.9% last month).o We expect inflati...

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 14 Jan 2022

​A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Covid cases rose by two-thirds to new records, although deaths remain low. * Oil rose to $85, close to its highest since 2014, despite a resolution to Libya’s production outage and hints of progress in Iran nuclear talks ...

HUNGARY - In Brief 14 Jan 2022

Forecasts by private sector analysts (with a median value of 7.1% yoy) and by the MNB (6.9% yoy given in the Q4 inflation report of late December) were defeated again by the actual 7.4% yoy headline rate of CPI-inflation in December, as reported today. This was the same number as in November, whi...

TURKEY - Report 14 Jan 2022

​​Cut through the uncertainty and understand what's ahead for Turkey in 2022. Visit our events calendar to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada discussing Turkey’s macro and political outlook.

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 14 Jan 2022

The Russian economy is waking up after a long New Year holiday break in a volatile environment caused by geopolitical noise. Compared to December 31, the Russian 10Y OFZ yields jumped by around 100 bps on January 14. The Russian ruble nearly attained almost the R/$ 77 benchmark on January 5, ahea...

BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 14 Jan 2022

Bolsonaro’s decision undoubtedly strengthens the power of the PP party in relation to the budget issue and reduces the centrality of the decision of the Ministry of the Economy. However, the decision makes sense; the Chief of Staff is part of the Budget Board, which deals with issues related to t...

ISRAEL - In Brief 14 Jan 2022 1 response

December’s CPI surprises on the upside Following two months of downward inflation surprises, inflation in December reached 0.3% m/m (expectations were for 0.1%) and 2.8% y/y (up from 2.4% last month).Food prices surprised on the upside, increasing by 0.5% m/m and 3.5% y/y. Rental prices (OER) inc...

JAMAICA AND THE BAHAMAS - Report 14 Jan 2022

Last week, Thursday evening on January 6, Jamaica’s Minister of Health Christopher Tufton held an emergency press conference to mark Jamaica’s highest ever number of new daily Covid cases, at 1120, as of January 5, combined with one of our highest ever positivity rates, at 46.8% (the average for ...

ARGENTINA - In Brief 13 Jan 2022 1 response

Consumer price inflation in December was 3,8% up from 2,5% in November and the prospects for January are still worse. The monetary base has been expanding at 12% per month since the beginning of December. The Central bank has increased the interest rate and the pace of adjustment of the official ...

BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 13 Jan 2022

The meeting of the National Committee of Secretaries of Finance (Comsefaz) is scheduled for 3 p.m. The freeze was instituted in October last year amid a scenario of successive increases in fuel prices and is valid until January 31. The Minister of the Economy, Paulo Guedes, should meet with the p...

VENEZUELA - Report 13 Jan 2022

Please see the amendments to Table 2 at the end of this report. Venezuela’s first hyperinflation cycle has ended. In December 2021, inflation slowed to an average monthly rate of 19 percent and an annual rate of 686 percent. The policy framework that brought hyperinflation to a halt lasted ...

ISRAEL - In Brief 13 Jan 2022

Export growth remains strong in Q4 Manufacturing exports expanded by 13% saar in Q4 following growth of 25% in Q3. Export growth was concentrated in computer components, pharmaceuticals and defense industries. Manufacturing exports increased by 15% in all of 2021. In Q4, imports of raw materials ...

HUNGARY - In Brief 13 Jan 2022

The weekly deposit tender is held by the MNB today. The fixed interest rate for the tender was set at 4% again, unchanged from last week. Looking at the forint's position at EURHUF 355, the lack of any further rate hike this time is genuinely unsurprising. Indeed, the forint has appreciated sharp...

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 12 Jan 2022

On January 12 the talks on Ukraine did not reach an agreement. NATO refused to rule out NATO membership. Both sides agreed to continue negotiating.Moscow wanted limits on the numbers of NATO troops deployed in Eastern Europe. NATO has not agreed to such a measure since the Cold War. Russia is off...