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Current account was historically strong in 3Q21
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 11 Oct 2021
The Central bank reported that in 3Q21, the current account widened to a historical record of $40.8bn, which was almost half of its entire 9M21 value ($82.2 bn). Previously the strongest ever current account was recorded in 1Q18 ($39.0 bn) and 1Q08 ($38.0 bn). Usually, imports are low early in th...

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Government's tax reform proposal leaked to the press aims to raise revenues by 2.35% GDP in 2022 and 1.79% in 2025
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - In Brief 11 Oct 2021 2 responses
A document from the Dominican government has been leaked to the press outlining the purposes of the tax reform that is expected to be formally disclosed in the next few days, and that so far has not been confirmed or denied by official bodies. In this document, the Dominican government lays down ...

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The fiscal deficit continues to contract rapidly
ISRAEL - In Brief 11 Oct 2021
The fiscal deficit continued to contract sharply in September, reaching 6.8% GDP (adjusted for the shift in the Jewish holidays) from 8% in August. Tax revenues are up nearly 30% in January-September, due to capital gains taxation on hi-tech exits, real-estate purchase taxation, and strong PC dem...

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​Inflation concerns
PHILIPPINES - In Brief 11 Oct 2021
In a September Pulse Asia survey[1] published last week, “controlling inflation” emerged as the most urgent national concern, significantly ahead of “controlling the spread of covid-19.” Government’s approval score for handling inflation dropped 26 percentage points compared with survey results i...

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Government bond purchases by BoI to come to an end on robust outlook
ISRAEL - In Brief 10 Oct 2021
The BoI sounds increasingly optimistic BoI expects growth to reach 7% this year and 5.5% in 2022. The cumulative growth forecast (12.9%) is 1% higher than previous forecast. Broad unemployment is expected to reach 5.2% in Q422 from present 7.9%. Inflation to reach 2.5% in 2021 and 1.6% in 2022. T...

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It’s getting quite ugly here
TURKEY - Report 10 Oct 2021
Recent polls herald significant drops in the approval ratings of the President Erdogan and his AKP-MHP alliance. Erdogan and his ally Bahceli seem unable to adopt new economic policies to reverse the decline. With the opposition organizing better each day and uniting around common causes, it now ...

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Russian inflation rises fast
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 09 Oct 2021
On October 7 data were released about inflation showing it reached 7.4% per annum in September 2021 according to Rosstat, the state statistical agency. This is the highest inflation since 2016, which was itself a fairly heavy year for inflation. Inflation is worse than anticipated. It was 6.7% in...

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Peru: President Castillo reshuffles his Cabinet
PERU - In Brief 08 Oct 2021
On Tuesday night, October 5, President Castillo, dismissed his controversial Prime Minister Mr. Guido Bellido and reshuffled his Cabinet. Overall the message is positive. Mr. Bellido was a highly controversial individual and many times undercut President Castillo. The latest was the nomination of...

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GULF WEEKLY: S&P positive on Oman, Saudi PMI at 7-year high, IPO boom continues
GULF COUNTRIES - Report 08 Oct 2021 1 response
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil surged to $83 as OPEC+ held steady, and LNG is equivalent to oil at over $300. * In the latest signs of regional de-escalation Qatar’s foreign minister visited Abu Dhabi, an Emirati official talked positive on Turkey, ...

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The railroads legal framework was approved in the Senate, the rapporteur of the court-ordered payments PEC submitted his report on the text in the House, and former President Lula will give an interview this morning
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 08 Oct 2021
Deputy Hugo Motta, the rapporteur of the court-ordered payments PEC, withdrew the possibility of paying in installments. The vote on the text was scheduled for October 19. The Plenary of the House approved the summoning of Paulo Guedes to provide an explanation on the offshore issue. Next week wi...

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Inflation picture turned even more ugly in September
HUNGARY - In Brief 08 Oct 2021
CPI-inflation for September was reported as 0.2% mom, 5.5% yoy this morning, the yoy headline rate rising to a 9-year peak level, quite sharply up from 4.9% in August. Core inflation also rose markedly, to 4% yoy from the previous month's 3.6% yoy. Analysts expected 5.4% yoy and the MNB, in its l...

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Stormy start of October: Pandora Papers and the dismissal of the Parliament Speaker
UKRAINE - In Brief 07 Oct 2021
The start of October appeared to be rather stormy for Ukrainian elites. The Pandora Papers as well as the removal of Parliament Speaker Dmytro Razumkov from his post have changed a lot on the Ukrainian political landscape. I do not expect immediate consequences from both events. However, in the m...

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Governor Yaron sounded very optimistic today, sees possibility of higher rates one year from now
ISRAEL - In Brief 07 Oct 2021
Very optimistic tone from the BoIThe rate hold decision came as no surprise but the general tone was very optimistic with much stronger GPD growth forecasted this year (7% instead of 5.5% previous forecast) and remaining robust in 2022 (5.5%). Yaron sees the possibility of a rate hike one year fr...

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Sérgio Moro’s presidential candidacy may be announced next week, former President Lula will give a press conference this Friday, and Dep. Hugo Motta should submit his report on the court-ordered payments PEC today
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 07 Oct 2021
Sérgio Moro's candidacy will add yet another possible candidate, further favoring the polarization between Bolsonaro and Lula. Lula’s goal with the press conference is to gain space in the media. The court-ordered payments PEC will likely receive a request for review of the text, and the vote in ...

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OFZ: manageable near-term issuance target, ambitious long-term plan
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - Report 07 Oct 2021
Russia’s Finance Ministry released its tactical (for 4Q21) and strategic (for 2022-24) borrowing plans last week. The former looks quite moderate (R505 bln), while the latter remains ambitious (R3.6 trln annually). Nevertheless, the cash position of the government is still comfortable, which allo...

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Turkey and Azerbaijan hold joint military exercises
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 07 Oct 2021
On October 5 a three-day drill began. It is called "Unshakable Brotherhood". The two countries speak virtually the same language. The drills are taking place in the Nakhchivan Exclave. This area borders Turkey, Armenia and Iran. It involves drones, tanks and planes, as well as ground troops. They...

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Populist policy to keep inflation elevated over the next months
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 07 Oct 2021
According to Rosstat, inflation in September reached 0.60% m-o-m - inflation YTD, and y-o-y reached 5.32% and 7.4%. Inflation in seven days ending October 4 was at 0.26%. Out of it, 0.15%, Rosstat allocated to the first four days of October. In September, prices started to grow across the board, ...

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​UAE: $4bn federal bonds issued; prospectus sheds some light on the federation and Sharjah
GULF COUNTRIES - Report 06 Oct 2021 1 response
The $4bn issuance was slightly larger than initially indicated, pricing close to Abu Dhabi as expected. It was largely opportunistic as the federal government rarely runs a deficit and even this year it's unlikely to be much more than -$1bn, with most of the bond proceeds going into the investmen...

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Good fiscal data, combined with a cooling economy
HUNGARY - In Brief 06 Oct 2021
We have got somewhat mixed feelings, having seen the most recent macro data releases.On the one hand, the general government deficit by Eurostat's ESA-2010 methodology, i.e. the main policy indicator on fiscal balance, was an excellent 4.2% of GDP in H1, 0.5%-point below the corresponding data fo...

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Sen. Roberto Rocha submitted his report on the Tax Reform, Paulo Guedes and Roberto Campos Neto may have to appear before Congress regarding their offshore accounts, and Arthur Lira will vote on a proposal that changes the calculation of fuel prices
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 06 Oct 2021
Senator Roberto Rocha’s report provides for the creation of a dual Value Added Tax (VAT). One part creates the CBS tax and the other, the IBS tax. The Senate approved the new railroad legal framework. The text will now go to the House for further analysis. The Committee on Work, Administration an...