Advanced Filters

Gsp in brief thumbnail
No change in the sovereign credit rating from Fitch and S&P on August 16
HUNGARY - In Brief 18 Aug 2019
Both Fitch Ratings and S&P had a revision date for their BBB/Stable sovereign credit ratings for Hungary on August 16. However, both agencies refrained from changing the ratings on this occasion. S&P did not even pick up the issue, whereas Fitch confirmed its BBB/Stable, saying that Hungary deser...

Gsp in brief thumbnail
​Hernán Lacunza replaces Nicolas Dujovne as Economic Minister
ARGENTINA - In Brief 17 Aug 2019
After some days of rumors that former economic minister Nicolas Dujovne wanted to resign to his post, the government announced this Saturday that Hernán Lacunza, former Economic Minister of the Province of Buenos Aires, assumes the position left behind by Dujovne. Dujovne felt responsible for the...

Gsp report report thumbnail
The dire fiscal problem of the states
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 16 Aug 2019
The pension reform has raised the minimum retirement age for all categories of employees, however kept privileges for police personnel (including state police forces) and teachers. In this Report we show that many state governments have exceeded the limit of 60% of Net Current Revenue (NCR) for p...

Gsp report report thumbnail
Moreno's hardships in the way of the IMF Agreement?
ECUADOR - Report 16 Aug 2019
President Moreno has stated he is not seeking re-election. However, it seems he wants to finish his office term as a popular president, or at least not be forced out of office. He recently had to face the protests of thousands of teachers who retired under the promise of former President Corre...

Gsp report report thumbnail
Zelenskiy gets (almost) all the power
UKRAINE - Report 16 Aug 2019
After a new party led by comedian Volodymyr Zelenskiy gained majority power in Ukraine in the July 21st parliamentary elections, Zelenskiy stepped handily into the presidency. None of Ukraine’s previous five presidents has come close to wielding such power from the very beginning of their terms. ...

Gsp report report thumbnail
It is time for a weaker forint in H2
HUNGARY - Report 15 Aug 2019
The preliminary Q2 GDP data reflected some deceleration on unadjusted basis, but only very little, and even that was almost fully cancelled out by calendar and seasonal adjustments. Thus, GDP once again beat everyone’s expectation and showed in fact the strongest yoy growth rate in Europe. The li...

Gsp report report thumbnail
This time is different: comparing 2008 and 2018 in the performance of the automobile industry
INDIA - Report 15 Aug 2019
We compare 2008 and 2018 as seen in three components of the automobile industry – HCV (heavy commercial vehicles), passenger cars and two-wheelers. In all three cases, we work with seasonally adjusted levels, and express the starting value as an index of 100. This permits direct comparison of two...

Gsp report report thumbnail
Hong Kong protests and the economy
CHINA ADVISORY - Report 15 Aug 2019
Some analysts are treating the Hong Kong protests as an exercise in democracy. Others say the demonstrators are restricting themselves to five more limited goals, the main one being the formal withdrawal of the extradition treaty. I tend to be an economic determinist and believe that the rising i...

Gsp report report thumbnail
South Africa’s National Health Insurance (NHI): Is it feasible and at what cost to the struggling economy?
SOUTH AFRICA - Report 14 Aug 2019
In the National Development Plan (NDP), it is stipulated that by 2030, South Africa’s health system should offer “quality care to all, free at the point of service, or paid for by publicly provided or privately funded insurance”. As such, to ensure provision of universal quality healthcare servic...

Gsp in brief thumbnail
GDP grows 4.6% in 2Q19, twice stronger than expected
UKRAINE - In Brief 14 Aug 2019
GDP grew 4.6% y/y in 2Q19, according to provisional statistics agency report. The number is twice larger than we expected for the second quarter. Sluggish industry performance (+1.5% y/y in 2Q19) was among the reasons for our modest estimate. The report on GDP was provisional and we do not have d...

Gsp report report thumbnail
No more disinflation
VENEZUELA - Report 14 Aug 2019
Disinflation ended. The rebound in monthly inflation we expected for August came in July as stronger public spending propped up consumption and the surge in the price of the dollar in the parallel market affected prices and expectations. We revised up our July inflation estimate to 32 percent fro...

Gsp report report thumbnail
YEMEN: Conflict in Aden might help end Yemen’s civil war, benefiting the GCC
GULF COUNTRIES - Report 13 Aug 2019
Counterintuitively, a new axis of conflict in Yemen, which saw southern separatists capture Aden last weekend, might help end the civil war. This is because it could be easier for the separatists than the government to find accommodation with the Houthi rebels, who control the northern highlands....

Gsp report report thumbnail
SAUDI: Aramco H1 results build hype for a likely IPO in H2 2020, but dividend policy remains vague
GULF COUNTRIES - Report 13 Aug 2019
Net income was down 12% on a 4% fall in oil price and a 7% rise in opex. However, transfers to the government were up 11% to $117bn due to an unexplained special dividend. Many of the initial barriers to an IPO have diminished, and much of the groundwork has been done, so we therefore expect it t...

Gsp report report thumbnail
The High Court rules in favor of the president over the public protector ‒ twice in a row
SOUTH AFRICA - Report 13 Aug 2019 1 response
Following the Public Protector’s (PP) (Ms. Mkhwebane) findings that the President (Mr. Ramaphosa) misled Parliament as well as the nation by not disclosing knowledge about (the sources of) donations for his 2017 ANC presidential campaign, Mr. Ramaphosa applied for an urgent interdict against Ms. ...

Gsp in brief thumbnail
Fear of nuclear arms race
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 13 Aug 2019
More information has been has been discovered about the August 8 nuclear accident in Russia. On August 8 accident took place at off Archangelsk killing 5 nuclear weapons experts. At the funeral of the scientists the head of the nuclear arms program praised the men for their courage. The US suspec...

Gsp in brief thumbnail
Russia's credit rating now BBB
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 12 Aug 2019
On August 9 Fitch Ratings lifted Russia's credit rating to BBB. Fitch said the rating move was due to sound public spending policy and a proper strategy to limit inflation. BBB is still the second lowest rating for countries that are basically stable. Standard and Poor's also rates Russia at BBB....

Gsp report report thumbnail
Pension Reform in the Senate and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 12 Aug 2019
Minister of the Economy Paulo Guedes is expected to present the government’s Tax Reform proposal. In the Lower House, the rapporteur, Aguinaldo Ribeiro (PP-PE), presents his workplan. In the Senate, the CCJ begins discussions on Pension Reform. This week’s Talking Points * Pension Refo...

Gsp report report thumbnail
Interest rate – new cuts ahead
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 12 Aug 2019
As the economy is stagnant and GDP operating below its potential (high unemployment and large industrial capacity slack), and inflation (current and expected) below the target, all the elements are in place for the Central Bank to cut the SELIC rate further. The most recent published indicators s...

Gsp report report thumbnail
Politics: What sort of opposition can endure?
MEXICO - Report 12 Aug 2019
At least one, and perhaps both of the main opposition parties in Mexico will hold leadership contests in the coming days and weeks, with significant implications for the political situation. The Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) held a national consultation last Sunday to elect a new nation...

Gsp report report thumbnail
Economics: Less inequality, but new trouble areas
MEXICO - Report 12 Aug 2019
Last week’s release of the National Statistics Institute’s bi-annual National Household Income and Expenditure Survey (Enigh), which corresponds to the period between 2017 and 2018, and the accompanying analysis of how the various dimensions and degrees of poverty have evolved from Coneval, deliv...