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Beijing’s Evergrande solution
CHINA ADVISORY - Report 06 Oct 2021
Beijing believes the risks of a US-style financial crisis caused by a property bubble outweigh the risks of an Evergrande default. But it is also encouraging a “soft” landing for the resolution of Evergrande’s debt problems that would avoid political unrest and a bank crisis. How will Beijing res...

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No news is... no news
VENEZUELA - In Brief 05 Oct 2021
The communiqué issued in Mexico on September 27, 2021, indicates the parties' willingness to continue negotiating and make the negotiations more inclusive through a consultation and participation mechanism involving political and social, national and international, actors. The government swiftly ...

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Reports show Paulo Guedes and Roberto Campos Neto have offshore companies, the Senate may vote on the railroad framework today, and a partner of the logistics company VTCLog, Raimundo Nonato Brasil, testifies in the Pandemic CPI
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 05 Oct 2021
Randolfe Rodrigues (Rede-AP), submitted a request to the Supreme Federal Court (STF) to open a preliminary investigation against Paulo Guedes and Roberto Campos Neto. The PSOL caucus in the House has started collecting signatures for the opening of a CPI on this issue. Despite the discomfort, the...

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Coronavirus surging in Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 05 Oct 2021
On October 5 the record for daily deaths was surpassed yet again. There were 895 deaths from coronavirus in 24 hours. The total death toll from the pandemic is 211,000 which is the highest in Europe.A new rise in cases has caused several regions to reintroduce restrictions for the first time sinc...

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Economics: Indicators in September suggest the recovery may be slowing
MEXICO - Report 04 Oct 2021
Economic data released in September provided further confirmation that the Mexican economy continues to sustain some momentum as the country’s vaccination efforts advance, with just over half of the population's having received at least one dose, and there is a further relaxation of mobility rest...

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Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 04 Oct 2021
With a good pace of vaccination against Covid-19, 71% of Brazilians have now received at least the first vaccination dose. With this excellent adhesion, together with the widespread use of masks, for the past few weeks the moving average of daily deaths has been oscillating around 500. All the sa...

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Politics: Charges against scientists raise doubts over policy and the country’s top prosecutor
MEXICO - Report 04 Oct 2021
Many critics have observed that President López Obrador’s “hugs not bullets” approach has translated into a largely hands-off approach to the country’s drug cartels and other organized crime outfits. But it seems that AMLO and other members of his administration, including his Attorney General, h...

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The complex scenario for a third candidate and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 04 Oct 2021
As announced by the president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), the goal is to find a solution for the fuel price issue. In the Senate, the vote on the railways legal framework bill is scheduled for Tuesday, October 5. The DEM and the PSL will formalize their merger. There are a number of releva...

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Turkey Covid Watch - October 4, 2021
TURKEY - Report 04 Oct 2021
Cases edged up over the past two weeks. The test of the system is to come in the coming weeks with the return of the cold weather. Our baseline is some further rise in cases but not sustained exponential growth or lockdowns.

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Economic growth moderates in August
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 04 Oct 2021 1 response
Rosstat reported that basic sector output (industry, agriculture, construction, transport, trade combined) was up y-o-y by 4.0% and 6.4% in August and 8M21. Growth in August was relatively slow due to negative y-o-y growth in Agriculture (-10.1%) as harvesting season this year started later than ...

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Predictably persistent
TURKEY - Report 04 Oct 2021
Consumer prices increased by 1.25%, m/m, in September, broadly in line with the consensus, including ours, with the 12-month rate rising further to 19.6% from 19.25% in August. Producer prices rose by 1.55% in the month, m/m, with the 12-month rate easing somewhat to 44% from 45.5% earlier, but c...

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The politics of the fourth withdrawal
CHILE - Report 04 Oct 2021
This week the discussion of the bill enabling a fourth withdrawal of up to 10% of private pension funds moves on to the Senate, having been approved by the lower house. Most observers believe the bill will be rejected in the Senate. Our calculations indicate that, on paper, the bill is four or fi...

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Wednesday is the deadline for submitting amendments to the court-ordered payments PEC, the Senate should vote on the new railway legal framework on Tuesday, and the DEM and PSL merger is scheduled for Wednesday
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 04 Oct 2021
Deputy Hugo Motta, the rapporteur of the court-ordered payments PEC, should submit his report on the text this week or next week. The rapporteur of the railway framework, Senator Jean Paul Prates (PT-RN), submitted his report last week, and the trend is for approval. The new party formed by the m...

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The BoI is likely to announce the end of QE this week
ISRAEL - Report 04 Oct 2021
Economic indicators point to robust growth in Q321, supported by private consumption and export growth. We maintain our below-consensus inflation forecast, assuming further shekel appreciation and relatively modest wage pressure. The BoI is expected to announce the end of QE this week, presenting...

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​The China connection
PHILIPPINES - In Brief 04 Oct 2021
Ongoing efforts by Chinese authorities to rein in excessive leverage in the property sector has had unintended consequences on global financial markets. The financial troubles of heretofore unheard-of Chinese property firm, Evergrande, have not only raised, in a moment of panic, the specter of an...

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Tough times ahead
TURKEY - Forecast 03 Oct 2021
As the debate intensifies on whether the global economy is faced with stagflation, we seem to be certainly looking to one over here. True, growth momentum has turned out stronger than envisaged, but that owes a lot to last year’s massive credit impulse. The “bifurcated” nature of post-Covid r...

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Ex-President of Georgia arrested
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 03 Oct 2021
Mikheil Saakashvili flew back into Georgia on October 2 for the first time in several years. He had been living in Ukraine. The governing party (Georgian Dream) won local elections on October 3 with 47% of the votes. The opposition says the elections were rigged. Georgian Dream has been accused o...

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First round of opposition primaries ended with an almost complete lack of clarity
HUNGARY - In Brief 02 Oct 2021
The first round of the united opposition's primary election is now over, and voting results are fully counted. Out of the 106 parliamentary constituencies, DK (the Democratic Coalition) has won candidacy in 32, Jobbik in 29, MSzP (the Socialist Party) in 18, Momentum in 15, Párbeszéd in 7 and LMP...

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​GULF WEEKLY: Saudi pre-budget, Bahrain & Dubai GDP, Bahrain 10% VAT, Kuwait national dialogue
GULF COUNTRIES - Report 01 Oct 2021
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC expects oil demand to keep rising, although it cut its 2045 forecast by -1m b/d to 108m. * LNG hit a record price, and Brent touched $80 for the first time in three years. * The Saudi pre-budget statement sees a defi...

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On Kavcioglu interview, CBRT reserves and September inflation
TURKEY - Report 01 Oct 2021
We have received a few queries on the topics included in the title above, i.e., statements made by CBRT Governor Kavcioglu in a recent interview; the relative improvement in CBRT reserves, and September inflation forecast, which will be released this Monday. We thought it might be useful to provi...