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GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+’s tiny taper, Saudi's large Q2 fiscal surplus, Kuwait heads to elections
GULF COUNTRIES - Report 05 Aug 2022
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ tapered by just 100k b/d but rising US stocks helped knock prices to a six-month low. * Iran nuclear talks are back on in Vienna, in perhaps the final opportunity for a deal. * PMIs remain strong in July in Qatar, S...

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Essential CIS Politics: August 2022
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - Report 05 Aug 2022
* Russia took almost the whole of Donbas, but fighting has slowed down. * The grain export deal between Russia and Ukraine proceeds with wariness over its longevity. * EU and UK extended sanctions on Russia and Belarus. * Five Central Asian countries held a presidents’ conf...

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July inflation at 6.4%
PHILIPPINES - In Brief 05 Aug 2022

Despite softening oil prices, the headline inflation climbed to 6.4% in July from 6.1% in June. The persistence of price pressures may be seen in the still high 0.8% month-on-month inflation, which can be traced largely to continuing increases in prices of all food groups (except vegetables) ...

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Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN - In Brief 05 Aug 2022

July 25

NBK: The National Bank of Kazakhstan has decided to hike the base rate from 14 to 14.5%

July 26

Ministry of Agriculture: The wheat harvest in Kazakhstan in 2022 may reach 13-13.5 mln tons (+15-20% y-o-y)

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Former German Chancellor says Putin wants peace talks
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 04 Aug 2022 2 responses

On August 3 Gerhard Schroeder said that a visit to Moscow had informed him that Russian President wants a parley. Schroeder said both sides needed to make concessions.

Schroeder has long been regarded as a friend of Putin.

Schroeder said the grain export deal shows that Moscow ...

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After another week of falling CPI deflation in July is almost certain
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 04 Aug 2022

Rosstat reported that in ten days ending August 1, the consumer price index fell by 0.14% w-o-w. The agency has split this number between the two months, and it appears that 0.13% was allocated to July and 0.01% to one day of August. On August 10, Rosstat will publish the official m-o-m inflat...

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Bolsonaro expected to sanction the national nursing salary floor today, polls show an improvement in government ratings, and the STF began judgment of the new administrative improbity law
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 04 Aug 2022
One of the problems of the nursing bill is that it does not mention a source of funding for the expense. One of the ideas under discussion in Congress is the legalization of gambling, which has already been approved by the House and is pending a vote in the Senate. The government's negative ratin...

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Peru: Political crisis intensifies
PERU - In Brief 04 Aug 2022

President Castillo is under strong pressure to resign. Last night his Prime Minister (PM), Mr. Anibal Torres, a well-known lawyer, that has defended him from the opposition and declining popular support, decided to resigned. This anticipates a Cabinet reshuffle and the next...

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Sergio Massa’s swearing-in and first announcements
ARGENTINA - In Brief 04 Aug 2022

In a rather brief ceremony, President Alberto Fernández took the oath to Sergio Massa (SM) as Minister of Economy, Production, and Agriculture. The festive atmosphere, accompanied by a large crowd (the press spoke of 500 guests), contrasted with an almost laconic tone of the President and Arge...

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Monetary Policy Without a Fiscal Anchor
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 03 Aug 2022
The Central Bank’s formal independence was incontestably a great achievement. But this is only a necessary condition to control inflation. The high risk premiums due to the government’s failure to satisfy the intertemporal budget constraint will lead to unsustainable interest rates and high infla...

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Bulgarian arms dump supplying Ukraine explodes
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 03 Aug 2022

On July 31 the EMKO defense company's ammunition depot blew up at 4 am. The explosion caused a fire. No one was injured. The area was then sealed off for 72 hours.

The owner of EMKO is Emiliyan Gebrev. The dump contained ammunition that Ukraine had ordered.

The owner of the war...

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New data on retail sales and prices: good news and bad news
HUNGARY - In Brief 03 Aug 2022

New data reflects a decelerating trend of yoy retail sales growth, with +5.8% in June, after 8.4% in May, 9.8% in April and a peak 11.9% in March, the month immediately preceding the election and immediately following the EDBFGA (the Election-Driven Big Fiscal Give-Aways) of February. In effec...

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Bolsonaro made commitments regarding next year's Budget, Mara Gabrilli has been announced as Senator Simone Tebet’s VP, and the tense climate between Bolsonaro and the STF continues
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 03 Aug 2022
Bolsonaro said that he has already talked and agreed with the Minister of Economy, Paulo Guedes, about correcting the personal income tax table. He also stated that he would be able to maintain the R$ 600 payments of the Auxílio Brasil program in 2023. As expected, Mara Gabrilli, from the PSDB of...

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July inflation lower than expected, but no cause for cheer
TURKEY - Report 03 Aug 2022
Consumer prices rose by 2.4%, m/m, in July, notably lower than the market consensus of around 3% and our slightly higher forecast. Our forecast error largely stemmed from higher inflation assumptions in transportation, housing and to a lesser extent, hospitality sub-categories. The 12-month rate ...

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West and Russia sanction each other
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 03 Aug 2022

On August 2 the US sanctioned a large Russian metal company MMK Metalurji and Putin's reputed lover Alina Kabaeva. Kabaeva has had her visa cancelled. She is a member of the Russian Parliament and head of the National Media Group.

Anti-corruption campaigner Aleksei Navalny has long req...

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Inflation in July slows m-o-m and rises y-o-y
KAZAKHSTAN - In Brief 02 Aug 2022

Kazakhstan’s Bureau of national statistics reported that inflation m-o-m slowed to 1.1% from 1.6% in June and 1.4% in May, but in y-o-y terms, inflation increased by 15.0%, prompting the National bank to rais...

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What to do about dry leather
VENEZUELA - Report 02 Aug 2022
Legend has it that President Antonio Guzmán Blanco, during one of the three separate presidential terms he served in the late 19th century, likened Venezuela to "a piece of dry leather”: just as soon as you manage to flatten out one edge with your foot, another edge will curl up. (The Spanish ori...

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Russia political pandemic update: Russia-West stand-off to intensify
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - Report 02 Aug 2022
It looks as though after more than five months of the "special military operation" in Ukraine, more time is needed either to sort out issues associated with the everlasting dispute between Russia and the West (the US in particular) or to just cut off relations with the “collective West.” The Russ...

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A series of provisional measures will be analyzed in the House, Senator Simone Tebet’s VP may be announced today, and the Copom meets to decide on the new interest rate
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 02 Aug 2022
On Wednesday, the Senate is expected to vote on the provisional measures that may be put to a vote in the House today. Among them are MP nº 1.108/22, which regulates teleworking; and MP nº 1,109/22, which authorizes the adoption of different labor rules in situations of states of emergency. Senat...

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Economics: Various domestic factors and US slowdown prompt revision of 2022 and 2023 estimates
MEXICO - Report 01 Aug 2022
So far this year, the international economy has been rocked by a range of factors including mounting inflation, with especially pronounced gains in the prices of foods, energy and other commodities, higher interest rates than had been anticipated, uncertainty, and financial market volatility. The...