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Inflationary pressure to remain high in 4Q21
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 01 Oct 2021
Rosstat reported that inflation w-o-w was 0.29% in seven days ending September 27. Inflation reached 0.49% and 5.20% MTD and YTD, which is above expectation. In September, inflation y-o-y will well exceed 7.0%, prompting the CBR to raise the key rate further.Inflation remains high as budgetary ex...

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The PSL has agreed to merge with the DEM, Eduardo Leite is in the lead in the PSDB primaries, and next week will be the last week of testimony in the Pandemic CPI
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 01 Oct 2021
Today, President Bolsonaro signs the Green Rural Product Certificate Decree at 10:30 a.m. and at 3:30 p.m. he participates in the ceremony for the beginning of the Maringá Airport modernization projects and the inauguration of the Bela Vista Hydroelectric Power Plant in Maringá, Paraná. This week...

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A note on the spike in the recent GDP data: it hides a dismal recovery
PANAMA - Report 01 Oct 2021
The 40.4 percent growth in Q2 (10.0 percent in the first semester) may not be enough to achieve the double-digit performance for the year that some analysts predict. The rebound will face a labor market characterized by increasing unemployment and informality. Only a handful of sectors will reach...

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Kyrgyzstan takes more action against Kumtor as jailed former president mulls return to politics
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 01 Oct 2021
On September 29 Kyrgyzstan put some more executives of Centerra Gold on its wanted list. The Canadian company owns a gold mine in Kyrgyzstan. The executives are accused of bribery.The UKMK (security agency) said that the company was corrupt and made USD 200 million illicitly. A former Prime Minis...

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Solomonic decisions ahead
ECUADOR - In Brief 30 Sep 2021
As we expected, five of the seven members of the Administrative Committee from the Assembly (CAL) rejected the bill Creating Opportunities submitted personally by president Guillermo Lasso for the legislators’ approval. They justified their decision alleging the project referred to multiple topic...

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The fuel issue is a priority for Arthur Lira, the House approved the bill that creates the Gas Social Program, and Petrobras also announced a social program for low-income families
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 30 Sep 2021
Arthur Lira said that he will try to find a solution for the prices of fuel and cooking gas in the coming days. The Gas Social Program bill was authored by Deputy Carlos Zarattini (PT-SP) and provides that, every six months, the value of gas must be equal to at least half of the average national ...

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Why does Evergrande matter?
CHINA FINANCIAL - Report 30 Sep 2021 1 response
Special points to highlight in this issue: * The Evergrande crisis is not the cause of anything. It is simply one of the most recent of a series of debt-related crises beginning with that of Baoshang Bank in May 2019. These include, most notably, Huarong, HNA, and soon enough by all accounts,...

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First round of opposition primaries shifted consensus towards a centre-left, pro-European stance
HUNGARY - In Brief 30 Sep 2021
The first round of the opposition alliance's primary election ended the day before yesterday, and partial results are available now.The first round was about the election of joint candidates for all of parliament's 106 constituencies and the selection of the united opposition's joint candidate fo...

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Groundbreaking for an EV battery plant
INDONESIA - Report 29 Sep 2021
Indonesia has made an important step toward becoming a base for the production of electric vehicles (EVs). In 2020 Hyundai Motor started the construction of its automotive plant in Karawang, Indonesia, approximately 50 km east of Jakarta. Then in mid-September 2021, LG Chem jointly with Hyundai M...

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COVID resurges, even as finances stabilize
CENTRAL AMERICA - Report 29 Sep 2021
El Salvador’s economy shows remarkable dynamism toward overcoming the economic effects of the pandemic, in H1 2022 or even earlier. In politics, understanding where El Salvador is headed continues to be a hard task. President Nayib Bukele’s political discourse normally highlights success in confr...

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The two main issues moving Brasilia are fuel prices and the emergency aid program, Sen. Tasso Jereissati withdrew from the PSDB primaries, and the Pandemic CPI should hear businessman Luciano Hang today
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 29 Sep 2021
Yesterday, the president of the House, Arthur Lira, tweeted that Brazil can no longer tolerate gas prices at R$ 7 and cooking gas at R$ 120. Yesterday, the National Secretary of the Treasury, Jeferson Bittencourt, said that the government has "strong reservations" about renewing the emergency aid...

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A Public Budget Bill for 2022 without fiscal reform and a deficit of 3% of GDP
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - In Brief 28 Sep 2021
The Council of Minister approved yesterday that the General Public Sector Budget Bill for 2022 will have a deficit of 3% of GDP. The amount of income is projected in DOP871 b. and the total expenses and financial applications would amount to DOP1,046 b. The financing need would amount to DOP175 b...

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Essential CIS Politics: September 2021
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - Report 28 Sep 2021
* The Russian parliamentary elections led to victory for the ruling party. The outcome of the election came as no surprise. The United Russia Party is the main pro-Kremlin party, although Putin has not been a member for over 10 years. United Russia has 315 out of the 450 seats in the Duma. Tur...

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Emergency aid payments may have to be extended, Sen. Tasso Jereissati may announce his withdrawal from the PSDB primaries, and the PSL and the DEM should meet to discuss their merger
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 28 Sep 2021
The Auxílio Brasil program is scheduled to replace the emergency aid payments in November but this depends on a solution to the court-ordered payments issue and the approval of the income tax bill. Senator Tasso Jereissati of the PSDB is expected to announce his support for the governor of Rio Gr...

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Politics: AMLO’s approval ratings firm even as voters grow more skeptical on key issues
MEXICO - Report 28 Sep 2021
In the latest GEA-ISA national poll of registered voters, President López Obrador's approval numbers rose 4 points to 54%, although that was exact same reading Felipe Calderón scored at the same point in his administration, 12 years earlier. A series of developments contributed to this recent fir...

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Russian macro: the ruble’s dependence on oil to increase if the latter climbs further
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - Report 27 Sep 2021
As the oil price has climbed close to $80/bbl, and it cannot be ruled out that the upward trend will continue, the ruble has remained relatively weak and has not yet appreciated to below USD/RUB 72. With the oil price fluctuating between $70 and $75/bbl the USD/RUB exchange rate fluctuated within...

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Kazakhstan faces the future
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - Report 27 Sep 2021
​The long-standing conflict in Afghanistan consistently undermined the outlook of Central Asia for over 20 years. Yet within the region, Kazakhstan has been a relative economic success story in the context of conflict-ridden neighboring states and a divergent Soviet breakup. Now, following the...

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Economics: The state of subnational public finance and why 2022 could pose major challenges
MEXICO - Report 27 Sep 2021
As we continue our analysis of the 2022 federation budget, this week we turn our attention to how it might impact the finances of local governments as well as what has been achieved in roughly five years of efforts to bring some discipline and visibility at that level. The Fiscal Discipline Law o...

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What can still be approved by the Legislature in 2021 and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 27 Sep 2021
Congress meets to vote on presidential vetoes. The Special Committee on the court-ordered payments PEC will set its work schedule. Data related to federal public accounts will be published. On Friday, the Bolsonaro government will complete 1000 days, and the president has a week of events planned...

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The Interconnection of the Brazilian and Chinese Economies
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 27 Sep 2021
THE MONETARY POLICY MAP – Next Wednesday, BRAZILIAN GROWTH AND COMMODITY PRICES – The best way to depict the dependence of growth of the Brazilian economy on Chinese growth is to examine the dispersion diagram in Graph 1. The Granger causality test based on quarterly data shows that variations of...