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Costa Rica: New taxes and financing lead the adjustment plan
CENTRAL AMERICA - Forecast 31 Jul 2019
After several failed attempts, Costa Rica is finally tackling a fiscal adjustment to reduce its large fiscal deficit, and to stabilize government debt. The road hasn’t been smooth, given the years of accumulated disequilibrium and the associated rigidities imposed by domestic legislation. But the...

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Having our cake and eating it too?
COLOMBIA - Report 31 Jul 2019
This year may mark the end of stagnation in financial deepening. Outstanding commercial loans in May finally started growing faster than nominal GDP growth. Still, it’ll be a few years before commercial credit-to-GDP ratios rebound to 2015 levels. Will this be enough to take the economy to health...

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​Indonesia: Vision 2019-2024
INDONESIA - Report 31 Jul 2019
President Joko Widodo, acting as president-elect for 2019-2024, recently outlined his vision for the second term of his presidency. His speech was a strong one, showing his great confidence in running his second term, starting in October 2019. There are five priorities that President Joko Widodo ...

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Two macro charts on the forint dilemma
HUNGARY - In Brief 30 Jul 2019
The forint was fixed at EURHUF 327.84 today, its weakest ever level to the best of our recollection. As usual, we suspect that the current forint weakness is at least not entirely against the will of the MNB. At least this is what we read from the dovish comments made by the Monetary Council afte...

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​A Neutral Zone restart is coming and means more to Kuwait than Saudi
GULF COUNTRIES - Report 30 Jul 2019
Kuwait and Saudi Arabia are edging towards restarting shared oil fields suspended for over four years due to bilateral disputes, which overlap with wider tensions with Iran and Qatar. Until OPEC quotas are lifted, a restart would be offset by cuts at other fields, but the spare capacity and expec...

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BAHRAIN: Protests after Shia executions unlikely to spark change
GULF COUNTRIES - In Brief 30 Jul 2019
In the last few days Bahrain has seen the most extensive protests in two years following the executions of three men on saturday, including two young Shia. The anger is likely to lead to further clashes between protestors and police but there are currently no indications of an escalation towards ...

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Pension reform: risk of changes in the second round and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 29 Jul 2019
The government and truckers will take part in a new round of negotiations on the cargo pricing table. Meetings are scheduled for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday in Brasília. The Central Bank may finally reduce the benchmark interest rate, currently at 6.5% per year. On Thursday, Congress and Superi...

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Russian Ministry of Finance trying to encourage home insurance
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 29 Jul 2019
On July 25 the Ministry of Finance finished a report adumbrating ways to convince householders to insure their properties. The ministry is working with the Ministry of Economics and the Ministry of Construction on this. This move comes right after an inundation in Irkutsk ruined many home. This c...

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Economics: Pemex retreats to a closed model
MEXICO - Report 29 Jul 2019
Pemex recently made good on a longstanding promise to deliver its new five-year business plan, which covers most of the six-year term of office of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador. The administration had been offering previews of some of the plan’s features in recent months as it tested the ...

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SAUDI: Stimulus will only buy a temporary reprieve
GULF COUNTRIES - Forecast 29 Jul 2019
Saudi Arabia is pressing ahead with a fiscal stimulus to drive growth after several tough years for both consumers and businesses. This stimulus will not be sustainable, and non-oil growth will slow to around 1.8% by 2021 from 2.6% in 2019. As a result, the fiscal deficit will swell to 9% of GDP ...

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Politics: Human rights body is the latest target of the government
MEXICO - Report 29 Jul 2019
From the moment he took office, the government of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has been especially outspoken in its denunciations of autonomous bodies, especially those that are mainly focused on economic matters. The energy regulatory and federal competition commissions have received th...

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What to expect from credit expansion?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 29 Jul 2019
As the economy is virtually stagnant and inflation (current and expected) is significantly below the target, this week the Central Bank will start a new monetary easing cycle. Credit is an important channel for transmission of monetary policy, and it has been showing some growth, which together w...

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Shekel appreciation will support lower inflation and stable rates
ISRAEL - Report 29 Jul 2019
Highlights: The shekel appreciated by 0.8% last week (against the basket). * We think the shekel has strengthened in part due to the divergence of monetary policies, with the BoI still projecting a tightening bias while most other central banks are reducing rates. * The shekel ha...

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Vizcarra finishes his National Day speech with a bombshell
PERU - In Brief 28 Jul 2019
A few hours ago, president Martin Vizcarra delivered the customary July 28thspeech before Congress where as usual he enumerated his government´s achievements during the last 12 months. However, towards the end of his presentation the President explained that the Executive Branch proposals for a p...

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Sweet dreams are made of this
TURKEY - Forecast 28 Jul 2019
Fed’s dovish pivot, ‘constructive ambiguity’ around the S-400 tensions between Turkey and the US, and last but certainly not least, the usual market complacency gave Turkish assets a fairly unexpected boost lately. Since our last quarterly report (of May 10, 2019), Turkey’s risk premium (CDS) has...

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Mail.ru and Sberbank start a joint venture
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 28 Jul 2019
On July 25 it was announced that Sberbank and Mail.ru are setting up a joint venture. The agreement is due to be signed in the fall. It will then need to be approved by regulators so there is a small chance that this JV will not go ahead. It will be a platform for online to offline services in tr...

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Moscow government strong-arming local elections
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - Report 27 Jul 2019
Protests have returned – albeit modestly – to Moscow’s streets during the last two weeks. They have not attracted much international attention because of their relatively low numbers (a couple of thousand attended on July 14). However, as the authorities failed to control protesters, on July 22 a...

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Remarks from the conference call - Duterte defined: His SONA and his legacy
PHILIPPINES - Report 26 Jul 2019
GlobalSource Partners hosted a conference call on July 24, 2019, featuring Philippine Country Analyst Romeo Bernardo. This report is a transcript of his remarks on the call, which shed light on the dynamics of the economy and provided perspective on the country's macro and political prospects. Th...

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CBR expectedly cut the key rate by 25 b.p. to 7.25%
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 26 Jul 2019
At today's meeting, CBR cut the rate by 25 b.p., as it was expected. Inflation is slowing and CBR expects to reach 4% target in early 2020. Main factors attributing to the rapid decline in inflation are weak consumer demand, strengthening of the RUB, lower prices for fruits and vegetables. At the...

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Warning from the MNB: FX swaps can move both ways
HUNGARY - In Brief 26 Jul 2019
The lack of any tightening measure and a further little change in the statement's language towards a more relaxed mode at Tuesday's (July 23) rate-setting meeting, combined with the ECB's softening tone yesterday, have pushed the forint to slightly weaker levels, to EURHUF 326.5 and USDHUF 293.2 ...