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The MDB officially launched Senator Tebet’s presidential candidacy, Bolsonaro reiterated his support for democratic institutions, and Ciro Gomes said that he does not see himself supporting Lula in the second round
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 28 Jul 2022
The MDB confirmed the candidacy of Senator Simone Tebet for the Presidency of the Republic. The PSDB and Cidadania also confirmed their support for the senator's candidacy. Eliziane Gama (MA), from the Cidadania, is a possibility as her VP. In response to the letter issued by the University of Sã...

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Inflation forecast raised, but (unsurprisingly) not enough
TURKEY - In Brief 28 Jul 2022

The CBRT released the third Inflation Report of the year today. The Bank raised its yearend inflation forecast for 2022 by 17.6 pps to 60.4% (mid-point of 56.9%-63.9%) from 42.8% in the April Report, which is still visibly below consensus (e.g., CBRT Survey of just under 70% and our somewhat h...

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Growth is slowing down markedly, partial deregulation of retail gas and electricity prices to have a greater impact than expected
HUNGARY - In Brief 28 Jul 2022

In addition to the fact that the 1-week deposit rate was indeed raised by 100 bps, to 10.75%, at today's tender, which is absolutely no surprise after the Monetary Council's decision of two days ago, we feel it is appropriate to report two important details from MNB vice governor Virág's ...

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Philippines decides not to buy Russia helicopters over sanctions
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 28 Jul 2022

On July the decision was announced, and the reason was US sanctions. The deal was for USD 227 million. Mi 17s were going to be bought. President Duterte made the decision in June 2022 just before he left office.

Some money was paid in January 2022. The choppers could have been used for...

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Economy to flatten in 3Q20 after a shock in March and April
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 28 Jul 2022

Rosstat reported that in 1H22, the aggregate output of the five basic sectors was still up by 0.6% y-o-y 1H22, but it was down by 3.4% and 4.5% y-o-y in 2Q22 and June alone. As repeatedly mentioned in the notes of this series, the performance in various sectors of the economy was volatile and ...

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President Lasso’s faulty bet
ECUADOR - Report 27 Jul 2022
Last October, President Lasso bet on the responsible management of the economy and a successful vaccination campaign as the foundation for the future course of action for his government. It was a faulty bet, and the absence of a strong political front failed to predict the perfect storm we experi...

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Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 27 Jul 2022

Russia continues to limit gas supply to the EU and explains it for technical reasons. Despite the decision of the Canadian Government to return the gas turbine to the Nord Stream operator, the turbine was not yet delivered due to bureaucratic disputes between the two countries (Germany and Rus...

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No rise yet in the interest rate
INDONESIA - Report 27 Jul 2022
As in many other countries in the world, the Indonesian economy has seen inflation creep higher. A number of factors have played significantly, especially the surge of prices in a number of key commodities such as cooking oil and non-subsidized gasoline, as well as agricultural commodities that w...

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The MDB should officially launch Senator Tebet’s presidential candidacy today, the PSDB will allow Araújo and Freire select the VP, and Fiesp's board of directors gave approval for the entity to participate in the USP movement
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 27 Jul 2022
Despite facing resistance from former President Lula's allies in the party, the probability is for Senator Tebet’s candidacy to be confirmed. The attempt to avoid the convention by legal means is unlikely to succeed. Since the PSDB and Cidadania formed a federation, the president of the PSDB, Bru...

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The NBK raised its base rate to 14.5 to follow the inflation
KAZAKHSTAN - In Brief 27 Jul 2022

On July 25, the National Bank of Kazakhstan raised its base rate by 50 bps to 14.5%, i.e., to y-o-y inflation reported in June. In May and June, the m-o-m inflation remained elevated (1.4% and 1.6%) and was higher than the m-o-m inflation in 2021 over the same months (0.7% and 1.1%). Hence inf...

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Russia shall withdraw from the International Space Station
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 26 Jul 2022

On July 27 Moscow made the announcement. The change shall take effect in 2024. Russia plans to build a space station for its own sole use.

Roskosmos said it will fulfill all its obligations until 2024. The USA and Russia have worked on the International Space Station (ISS) together sin...

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Three weeks into the social uprisings: causes, consequences, and perspectives
PANAMA - Report 26 Jul 2022 2 responses
Social uprisings began on July 4, when a group of teachers from ANADEPO (representing over twenty educational, civil, farming, transportation and student associations) and AEVE (a teachers' union), based in the provinces of Chiriquí and Veraguas in western Panama, closed the main arteries of comm...

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The Monetary Council was quite ambitious today
HUNGARY - In Brief 26 Jul 2022

The Council raised the base rate further by 100 bps, to 10.75% today, and the 1-week deposit rate will most likely follow this increase on Thursday.

This looks quite ambitious: as the MNB had managed to bring the forint back to around EURHUF 400, the MNB could have scaled bac...

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The MDB is expected to officially launch Senator Tebet’s presidential candidacy on Wednesday, the latest polls show that Bolsonaro has a 58% rate of rejection, and the government has to submit the Federal Budget for 2023 by August 31
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 26 Jul 2022
The MDB convention to formalize Senator Simone Tebet's candidacy for the Planalto Palace has been taken to court. An annulment request was submitted to the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) yesterday. While the Ipespe poll shows that the distance between Lula and Bolsonaro fell from 11% to 9%, FSB P...

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Gazprom to cut deliveries to EU dramatically
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 26 Jul 2022

On July 26 the Russian gas giant announced that it will reduce supplies via Nord Stream to 33 million cubic meters per day. That is 20% of capacity. Gazprom says this is due to technical problems.

The cut will take effect from 0700 Moscow time on July 27.

Earlier in July 2...

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The Ciro factor in the presidential election and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 25 Jul 2022
Party conventions will remain at the center of political debate. On Wednesday, July 27, the MDB will decide whether to officially launch the presidential candidacy of Senator Simone Tebet. The PSDB will meet to select the vice president on Senator Tebet's ticket. The government is expected to ann...

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The Central Bank’s Dilemma: to stop or not to stop?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 25 Jul 2022
At the next COPOM meeting, the Central Bank will likely increase the SELIC rate by 50 basis points, to 13.75%. Although this rate is strongly restrictive, will this mark the end of the monetary tightening cycle? The analysis of the balance of risks – domestic and international – indicates it woul...

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Kazakhstan macro: Economic growth reportedly decelerated in 2Q22 but will bounce back
KAZAKHSTAN - Report 25 Jul 2022
The Kazakh president recently mentioned that the country’s GDP was up by a mere 3.4% y-o-y in 1H22, while in 1Q22, it was up by 4.6% y-o-y. Even though the figure quoted by the president had not yet been officially published, the general perception is that economic growth in the country slowed in...

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Economics: Private consumption strengthens but spending on durable goods and services remains weak
MEXICO - Report 25 Jul 2022
Growth in private consumption has accelerated in recent months but has yet to significantly improve on pre-pandemic levels. Household expenditure has not grown uniformly, and there are especially pronounced lags in the consumption of durable goods such as autos and electronic appliances, as well ...

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Politics: US pressure underlies aged capo’s arrest as drug trade and consumption keep expanding
MEXICO - Report 25 Jul 2022
The recent arrest by the Mexican Marines of Caro Quintero, the once-powerful drug kingpin and prime suspect in the 1985 abduction, torture and murder of DEA Special Agent Enrique Camarena, says a lot about the current state of US-Mexico relations. His capture came three days after President López...