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Policy Environment Shifting For The Better
| In recent months, a series of special reports have sketched the failures of economic policy formulation including at the Ministry of Finance and RBI. These failures have been particularly disappointing given that when P. Chidambaram returned to MoF, a sharp ... 
President's Popularity Crumbles
COLOMBIA
- In Brief
04 Sep 2013
2 responses
Gallup released its most recent opinion poll and President Santos' popularity fell from 46% to 21%. Even though the poll was carried out last week when protests and strikes had reached a climax and before the President took bold moves to quell unjustified violence, his political future is riding ...
Increased Risks and a Depreciating Exchange Rate
BRAZIL ECONOMICS
- Report
04 Sep 2013
Executive SummaryIn response to the 2008 crisis, many countries abandoned the precepts of prudence and adopted highly expansionary fiscal policies along with a strong dose of monetary accommodation. This brought higher inflation and current account deficits, the latter of which beca...
A Recovery Yet To Come
MEXICO
- Report
03 Sep 2013
Economic PanoramaThe most significant piece of economic news in August was the weakness of GDP growth during the second quarter. The authorities reported that the economy expanded a mere 1.5% compared to the same April through June period of the previous year. Officials had ...
Industrial Production: Still on a Rollercoaster
BRAZIL ECONOMICS
- Report
03 Sep 2013
Industrial production fell 2.0% in August, giving back nearly all the gain in July (2.1%) and continuing the extremely volatile pattern of recent months (Graph 1). The decline in the month was so steep that it brought the quarterly moving average into negative territory (-0.7%) for the fir...
15 Crucial Days
MEXICO
- Report
03 Sep 2013
Executive SummaryOver the past week dissident members of the National Teachers’ Union, gathered in what is known as the “Coordinadora” or CNTE, have grown increasingly audacious in their efforts to derail the last of the education reform bills pending before Congress. After having ...
Headline Down, Core UP
TURKEY
- Report
03 Sep 2013
Today’s consumer price data came in exactly in line with the market consensus, shrinking modestly by 0.1%, on the back of a retreat in food prices, also as expected.The 12-month rate hence dropped to 8.2% from 8.9% a month earlier. The producer price inflation also eased to 6.4% from 6.6% in J...
GDP in the Second Quarter
BRAZIL ECONOMICS
- Report
02 Sep 2013
Brazil’s GDP growth in the second quarter exceeded all projections. At 1.5% (6.0% in annual terms – Graph 1), it was the strongest since the first quarter of 2010, changing the growth estimates for 2013. Among the various surprising results is the growth in the service sector, about which ther...
Political Insights: Week of September 2
BRAZIL POLITICS
- Report
02 Sep 2013
The people should return to the streets on September 7 to protest in the main cities throughout the country.Regarding the economy, we highlight the release of inflation data for August. Electoral reform, outsourcing and the Budget Guidelines Law are on the congressional agenda.
PMI Gains Momentum
SOUTH AFRICA
- In Brief
02 Sep 2013
The seasonally adjusted purchasing managers’ index (PMI) climbed from 52.2 points in July to 56.5 points in August 2013. This outcome paints an encouraging picture for manufacturing conditions in South Africa and correlates positively with recent gross domestic product figures.
However, de...
Budget Deficit Reaches 2% of GDP just for 7M 2013
UKRAINE
- In Brief
01 Sep 2013
Through January-July 2013 the central budget deficit reached UAH 30.3 billion (2.0% of GDP) or 60% from the targeted UAH 50.6 billion deficit for 2013. It is very unusual to see such a high fiscal deficit by the end of July. Traditionally, the authorities used to postpone the main par...
Is Turkey’s Luck Turning?
TURKEY
- Report
01 Sep 2013
Executive SummaryOur base-case fall/winter scenario on the political side entails very daunting challenges for the AKP administration, which may reverse its more than a decade old streak of good luck. Assuming President Obama does strike Syrian targets but fails to dislodge Assad, th...
Waiting for Consumption to Decelerate
CHILE
- Report
30 Aug 2013
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