Economics: 2020 growth forecasts remain low

MEXICO - Report 13 Jan 2020 by Mauricio Gonzalez and Francisco González

The economic perspectives for 2020 anticipate weak GDP growth, due to lower dynamism in investment and private consumption. Specifically, we at GEA estimate economic growth of 0.2% for 2020 and 1.2% for 2021. Our estimated GDP growth is at the bottom of the range recently projected by other analysts and authorities.

Even though there are elements that could help to reactivate economic growth, such as the National Agreement for Private Sector Investment and the Canada-U.S.-Mexico trade agreement (CUMSA), the uncertainty generated by the federal government and its refusal to amend public policies that discourage private investment will keep GDP growth at low levels. Additionally, the U.S.’s industrial sector evolution, within a context of commercial and geopolitical tensions, and Pemex’s increasing risks related to its financial and operational viability, could pressure Mexico’s economic growth even further in 2020-2021.

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