Politics: 2021 election results and outlook
Mexico’s much awaited and bitterly contested June 6 mid-term elections delivered mixed results. At stake in the vote to renew the Chamber of Deputies was the future of the 4T, AMLO’s project to radically transform Mexican political and economic life. Morena and its coalition partners proclaimed their goal of obtaining a qualified majority that would enable constitutional reforms to be enacted to concretize AMLO’s policies and thereby avoid the court battles that have put many new laws on hold.
When the dust had settled, the results were uneven. Morena maintained its majority in the Chamber of Deputies, but with fewer congressional deputies, and it is far from obtaining a qualified majority. While in 2018, AMLO’s coalition won 218 of the 300 single-member congressional districts and the opposition took the remaining 82, this year the pro-government forces won 184 and the opposition 116. New rules for allocating proportional representation seats will also negatively affect Morena.
More serious perhaps was the party’s severe defeat in Mexico City, a traditional bastion of support for the left. The party now will only govern six, or possibly seven, of the capital’s 16 municipalities. Yet the losses in the capital were largely offset by important gains on the state level, with the party's winning at least 10 of this year’s 15 gubernatorial races.
Much of the party’s losses can be attributed to the decision of the PRI, PAN, and PRD to form a coalition and field common candidates to defeat Morena. In the past, the PRI and PAN ran separately. But Morena’s poorer-than-expected results also reflect a certain disenchantment with AMLO, his policies, and his governing style (particularly among the middle class), poor choices of candidates, and less-than-stellar performances in local offices. The question is now whether the opposition coalition can maintain its united front during the complete legislative period and into the 2024 elections, coming up with a credible alternative on a programmatic level.
For Morena the issue is whether it can get its act together and overcome its internal conflicts, which have negatively affected its ability to campaign, as well as its public perception.
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