2025: The good, the bad and the ugly
The good: 2025 closed with good news in the economic area—a slight increase of 1.6% in adequate employment as 380,000 new jobs were created; lower poverty based on income level, which fell from a rate of 28% in 2024 to 21.4% in 2025; strong growth of 19.5% y/y in non-oil exports; and a 20.7% increase in remittances from migrants between January and September.
In fact, the external sector continued its strong performance with a high balance of trade of $5,796 million (4.5% of GDP) between January and November. And remittances reached $5738 million as of September—with an expected $7000 million by year-end—exceeding total external disbursements received in 2025. The non-oil export sector expects record revenues of $32,000 million, boosted by good results in the exports of bananas, shrimp, mining products and fish.
President Noboa also proudly announced that construction grew 6.2% and commerce was up 4.9% y/y during his administration. These two sectors contributed to the 15.1% y/y growth in private banking deposits, which reached $59,336 million as of November. Credit and credit conditions also improved between 2024 and 2025, with lending growing 12% y/y and lending rates for the productive sector falling by around 2% in two sectors: prime and PYMES. Finally, GDP growth could reach 3.8% y/y, exceeding the forecasts from the Central Bank and the IMF.
The bad: The vulnerability of the fiscal sector persisted in 2025—the General Government had an overall deficit of $5312 million and accumulated financing needs of $21,233 million. The government was able to close the financing gap thanks to the arrival of $2348 million in external disbursements in December—47.9% of the year’s total. Revenues were up a marginal 2.8% y/y while total expenditure increased 11.1% despite the low rise of 0.4% in salaries and wages. The increase in expenditure was due to the strong growth of 20.5% in transfers to Social Security, the welfare bonus and GADs, and onerous interest payments, which rose 17.3% y/y, becoming the second highest current expenditure item after education.
Total oil production fell from 15.92 million barrels in 2024 to 14.63 million barrels in 2025 between January and November. Hence, exports fell from $7968 million to $6493 million at the same time as prices were $10/b lower on average.
Finally, the political capital of President Noboa has significantly decreased from his election (75%) to around 42%—one factor behind the negative results of last November's referendum
The ugly: Violence and organized crime continue to lash Ecuadorians every day. Violent deaths increased 47% y/y in H1 2025, especially in Guayaquil, where not even exclusive housing complexes have been excluded from attacks. The corruption and institutional chaos in the judicial sector persists and partly explains the rise in crime because of the complicity between these two groups.
Year 2026 will demand the full attention and leadership of President Noboa to preserve the good results achieved and make changes where necessary. However, his presence since the defeat in the referendum last November has been scarce.
Now read on...
Register to sample a report