Politics: 2027 gubernatorial elections—a tougher road for Morena than expected
Next year's elections will determine the type of majority Morena holds in the Chamber of Deputies—absolute or qualified—and also whether the 4T expands or loses territorial control in the governorships and municipal presidencies at stake ahead of the 2030 presidential contest. The outcome also matters for the economy: greater legislative and territorial control means more discretion and less dialogue with the opposition and society, which feeds the business distrust that has held back private investment since the second half of 2024. Signs that a state-run election is being prepared (meaning that the election is receiving illegal support from state institutions for the ruling party), together with the controversy surrounding the National Electoral Institute (INE) and the replacement of Guadalupe Taddei, make challenges to the results likely. If the post goes to someone politically close to Morena, the second half of the six-year term could be marked by a powerful but questioned government, a society openly opposed to the country's direction, and a low-growth economy.
To gauge competition in the 17 gubernatorial races, we built a 0-to-100 index with a model considering five variables: the margin in the last election, Morena's cohesion, opposition strength, the governor's approval, and voting intention. Six races are very competitive (Baja California Sur, Campeche, Michoacán, Zacatecas, Colima and Nuevo León), six more are competitive, and the rest pose little difficulty for the parties in power. Morena's main risk is internal, namely fractures after candidate selection and tensions with its allies, the PT and the PVEM, since the opposition alone is generating little competition. Moreover, several Morena governors have low approval ratings, so the party's main asset is Sheinbaum's popularity (69%). MC is competitive in Campeche and Nuevo León, while PAN-PRI alliances are still being decided state by state and do not yet change the map.
The most important shifts since mid-October illustrate where the risk lies. In Zacatecas, the first in-home poll that meets the reliability criterion places Morena third, behind Máynez (MC) and Bonilla (PAN-PRI). In Michoacán, the PT has put forward Raúl Morón as its candidate and paused negotiations with Morena, while Grecia Quiroz will most likely run as an independent, although she could still change her position and accept a run with the MC party. In Colima, the PVEM leader has broken away and is promoting a PAN-PRI-MC opposition front. Nuevo León, the only one of the six where Morena does not govern, remains the most open in terms of the number of players. Polling information is still weak, and the index will gain solidity once candidacies and alliances are defined and in-home polls are published. Meanwhile, the federal government can be expected to step up its presence, with tours, programs and public works in the states with the highest risk.
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