3Q GDPgrowth revised up to +2.7% y/y

UKRAINE - In Brief 20 Dec 2021 by Dmytro Boyarchuk

GDP growth in 3Q 2021 was reported +2.7% y/y, up from the +2.4% y/y estimated previously, according to the Statistics Office release today. Household consumption remained strong in 3Q, with +9.0% y/y growth, as did investment in fixed assets, with +14.5% y/y growth. The key point that pulled GDP growth down through the quarter was a further contraction in real exports, with a 8.6% y/y decline in 3Q 2021. On the supply side we see near-zero industry performance and only a 5.1% y/y increase in agro-production. Apparently, the shift in crop collection will translate into a surge in agro-output (with a subsequent jump in GDP) in the fourth quarter. In October agro-production was reported to have skyrocketed by 61% y/y, and November will be even more impressive. We confirm our GDP forecast at +3.7% y/y for 2021.

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