A brief lull in excitement

TURKEY - Report 18 Jan 2026 by Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada

Much fun has gone out from domestic politics as, for reasons to be explored, President Erdogan unilaterally ceased his attacks on CHP. Instead, the new agenda is his succession plan, involving his son Bilal. Erdogan has no intention to retire; Bilal is being groomed for the post in case of an emergency. He plans to run on a platform of Islamist values and not much else, apparently.

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November production indicators generally point to a better month than October, but the performance in the quarter as a whole appears mixed. The year’s first CBRT survey provided some useful info on how analysts see the macroeconomics of 2026, which is somewhat different than ours.

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Putting these together with the ongoing stickiness in inflation dynamics should make the CBRT extra nervous and cautious, but another 150 bps cut is the most likely scenario at this week’s MPC meeting, we also think, in line with the consensus polls we’ve seen. Sadly enough, a deeper cut would not completely surprise us.

Now read on...

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