A Civil Cold War, Set to Escalate

UKRAINE - Forecast 29 Dec 2013 by Vladimir Dubrovskiy and Dmytro Boyarchuk
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY “Civil cold war” is a phrase that describes the domestic situation well.The authorities keep living in a reality of their own making, assuming people will accept it, and that the protests will wane. Yet many Ukrainians don’t foresee a continuation of the status quo: that is, they don’t foresee a continuation of administrative pressure, police repression and widespread budget embezzlement. Euro-integration has now become only a symbol of protest, not its essence. The Russian promise of support – in the form of a one-third discount on the price of gas, and a $15 billion loan...

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