A cornered government
The good news of the higher-than-expected GDP growth of 4.2% y/y, which clearly speaks of a robust (albeit jobless) economic recovery in 2021, came amidst the dense political turmoil caused by dubious legislative processes, another massacre in the jail system, the discovery of a Ponzi scheme among some members of the Armed Forces, and – as the cherry on top – the approval of a habeas corpus petition from former Vice President Jorge Glass to obtain his freedom even though court rulings against him for embezzlement are still in effect.
The majority of 70 legislators formed by UNES, the Social Christians, and nine dissident members from Pachakutik is operating to stop any initiative by the government and to vote for decisions that would clearly allow them to quickly seize as much power as possible in preparation for a comeback in the next elections. They already archived the executive bill to promote investment and create employment and are now forcefully pursuing the impeachment of Guadalupe Llori, president of the Assembly and a member of Pachakutik, who is somewhat close to the official bloc.
The cornered government is being accused by Social Christians of a pact with UNES to liberate Glass and other criminals from the former government of Rafael Correa. Even though President Lasso's third minister of the Interior, Francisco Jimenez, is strongly denying any participation from the government in the Glass affair and is assuring that the government is taking every judicial action to overturn the habeas corpus granted, Glass’s freedom has infuriated both supporters and opponents of Lasso’s government, while UNES remains suspiciously silent.
In this context the necessity to go for the “cross death” as the only alternative for the government to move forward has again become a matter of heated debate. For his part, President Lasso is still talking about a referendum to enact political and economic changes.
In our opinion, given the Lasso government’s current low rates of acceptance, neither alternative is viable now. Lasso missed an excellent chance to implement either one of these constitutional alternatives last year, when he had record high approval ratings.
Given the stagnant labor situation despite the economic growth, the above-mentioned political scandals, and the gloomy global environment due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Lasso needs to exercise and show real leadership in the coming months to regain the public’s confidence before venturing into options that might prove to be political suicide, with negative consequences for the country. Our hopes rest on the conversations of the government with the IMF and with the Chinese government.
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