​A farewell-to-year piece by the Cosmic Strategist

TURKEY - In Brief 10 Dec 2019 by Atilla Yesilada

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The final Monthly of 2019 by the GSP Turkey team will be in your inboxes by Friday, Deities permitting.As a eye-opening case of the Common Persons’ discrimination against contrarian intellectuals, GSP Turkey Monthly and Quarterly Reports do not include the views of the renowned Cosmic Strategist. Yet, the Politics Author has been kind enough to channel Him in this Market Brief to say farewell to hisvast and devoted audience beforeHe takes off to North Pole in His undying quest of sipping eggnog with Santa. The Christmas message from the Grand Cosmic Guru is simple:Markets may remain calm under the New Year, but that is the calm before the storm.US Senate gearing up to slap sanctions on Turkey and President Erdogan’s love affair with ultra-low interest rates are very likely to cause a road accident sometime between Thursday (when CBRT announces its policy decision) and mid-January, when the US Senate adopts a version of the “S.2641, the Promoting American National Security and Preventing the Resurgence of ISIS Act” (Risch-Menendez Bill), which should be debated at the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee during the week. While the AI-like intelligence of Universal Cosmic Wisdom spans the entirety of global affairs, He is only paid to comment on Turkish affairs, hence He shall cut the usual intro to the global backdrop short.There is no reason for Fed or ECB to provide more monetary stimulus in the next three to six months, which is bad news for a country like Turkey which is already in the midst of an excruciating FX deleveraging episode and would prefer extremely loose global financial conditions to ease the pain thereof. While EM risk appetite remains buoyant it is firmly...