A fork in the road

PHILIPPINES - Forecast 27 May 2019 by Romeo Bernardo and Christine Tang

Going into the second half of the Duterte administration, poll results suggest exceptional executive influence over the legislature that opens up a window which many hope would lead to initiatives that would advance the economic reform agenda, including ramping up the sovereign credit rating to grade “A” category. This however comes at a time of mounting US-China trade tensions and worsening global growth outlooks that have dragged domestic growth. Alongside the 1Q19 loss of momentum in public infrastructure spending, we are keeping for now with our below consensus 5.9% GDP growth for 2019 but expecting a mild uptick in 2020.​

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