A fraught atmosphere
Since November 2023, President Daniel Noboa has made twenty changes in his ministerial cabinet. The Ministry of the Interior and the Ministry of Health have been the areas of greater rotation, at six ministers each. Immediately after his defeat last November in the public referendum, Noboa changed his Ministers of the Interior, Labor, Education, Social and Economic Inclusion, and Agriculture. More recently he implemented another change in the Ministry of Health—an area where problems not only persist but are increasing uncontrollably. President Noboa even recurred to Vice President Maria Jose Pinto to temporarily lead that ministry before appointing Jaime Bernabe last month as its most recent minister.
Noboa also replaced Ines Manzano, who had been heading the Ministry of Energy for the past seven months after replacing Antonio Goncalvez. Goncalvez is now being criminally prosecuted for embezzlement as part of the massive corruption case in CELEC (Electric Corporation) related to contracts signed at the end of 2024 with Progen Industries, a US-based company that supplies electricity generation services.
The new Minister of Energy, Juan Carlos Blum, did not start his administration at an easy moment. He not only had to deal immediately with the above-mentioned corruption scandal at CELEC, but also with the fire at the Esmeraldas refinery, at a time when imports of derivatives have started to become difficult due to the situation in the Strait of Hormuz.
This problematic combination, paired with the announced rise in derivatives prices on Monday, May 11, caused a supply problem amidst unusual demand, forcing Ecuadorians, especially Quiteños, to form long lines at virtually all gas stations and leave with less gasoline than they needed or none at all for six consecutive days. This scarcity was denied by the new Minister of Energy, Juan Carlos Blum, who blamed only price speculation. Unfortunately for him, a letter from the Secretary of Hydrocarbons ordering a limit in the supply of gasoline was made public, deepening people’s frustration.
The damage at the Esmeraldas refinery has forced Ecuador to import up to 65% of its derivatives to satisfy local demand. As of Monday, May 18, the refinery is operating at only 41% of capacity, refining 44,930 barrels of a possible 110,000 barrels, even though the government announced the problem would be resolved by May 15.
Despite these problems, a poll published by Comunicaliza on April 22 shows that President Noboa still holds 47.7% overall popular support—especially among the high-income classes, and above the 42% he held last November. But although the 47.7% still gives him political capital, the trend has been negative because his overall support has been declining, especially among the lower classes, splitting opinion close to 50-50.
Therefore, the coming local government elections next November, in which the official ADN party will once again face Revolucion Ciudadana (under "disguise" since they are not able to participate directly due the electoral sanctions against them), will be the true barometer of President Noboa's political support. But at the moment local polls are not positive for the official party or its allies.
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