A full political agenda for the coming weeks

ECUADOR - In Brief 04 Nov 2021 by Magdalena Barreiro

President Lasso continues his official tour through Europe, where he attended the 26th UN Climate Change Conference in Glasgow and is currently presenting the Ecuadorian investment portfolio to government officers and private businessmen in Spain. In the meanwhile, the Commission of Constitutional Rights that is investigating President Lasso for possible offshore transactions in the so-called "tax havens", expects to have the final report ready by the end of the day tomorrow. This commission has no legal grounds to act against the President, but since it has a majority formed by members of UNES and Pachakutik, it would not be surprising if this report is not favorable to Lasso. How the plenary reacts to the report is not clear yet, and the next two weeks will be critical. Also, legislators are analyzing the tax reform sent as urgent, and will have a report for discussion of the plenary by November 14th, aiming for a final vote by November 28th. Rumors are that the decree to declare the “cross-death” is ready, just in case. We still think that albeit this is a legitimate constitutional solution for a political impasse between the Assembly and the Executive, it could end up as a lose-lose situation. Finally, the preliminary 2022 budget for the General Budget was also submitted within the legal deadline. Total expenditures sum $28,000 million while revenues total $24,000 million, leaving an overall deficit of $4,000 million. This budget does not include the possible increase in temporary taxes for 2022, and has been prepared with an oil price of $59.20. But the estimated WTI average price for next year is $74/b, which could imply an average of around $70/b for the Ecuador...

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