A rate hike in November remains a real possibility

ISRAEL - Report 19 Nov 2018 by Jonathan Katz

Headline inflation in October reached 1.2% y/y, core 1.0% y/y, and appears well entrenched within the target range. GDP growth appears soft in Q318 (2.3% saar), but excluding taxes on imports, GDP growth hit 3%. We see a near 50% chance of a rate hike in November, despite the fact that there will be only five MPC members without a permanent Governor. Early elections (if we go that path) actually slow expenditure growth as no additional spending can be approved.

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