A surprising Invamer poll rocks the political landscape

COLOMBIA - In Brief 01 Dec 2025 by Andrés Escobar Arango
After a long period without official polls due to a legal ban, Invamer published on Nov. 30th a surprising poll on the presidential election. The main result is a substantial jump in leftist Iván Cepeda’s vote intention, surpassing right-wing Abelardo de la Espriella, and centrist Sergio Fajardo, both in the first round and in the run-off (Figure 1). The evolution of these three men’s voting intention over the past few months is shown in Figure 2. We don’t recall an episode, this early in the campaign, in which a candidate has jumped so much in such a short span, as Iván Cepeda did between October and November. The main reason for such spectacular behavior might be that he was chosen as the only candidate from the extreme left, representing the continuity of the Petro administration, something the center- and right-wing candidates are far from achieving. Certainly, the government, with substantial muscle, has backed Cepeda on social media to make him a household name. Nevertheless, it is a remarkable showing. Figure 1. Vote intention for the three leading candidates in the first round of the presidential electionsSource: Invamer. Figure 2. Evolution of vote intention for the three leading candidates in the first round of the presidential electionsSource: Guarumo (26-Jun-2024), Guarumo (4-Aug-2024), CNC (4-Sep-2024), Guarumo (12-Sep-2024), Politiks studio (8-Oct-2024), Invamer (28-Oct-2024), FALSO, CNC (22-Nov-2024), Invamer (26-Nov-2024), Guarumo (12-Dec-2024), CNC (29-Jan-2025), Guarumo (13-Feb-2025), CNC (20-Mar-2025), Guarumo Ecoanalítica (28-Apr-2025), Invamer (25-Mar-2025), Guarumo Colombia Convulsionada (19-Jun-2025), Guarumo, EcoAnalítica (5-Jul-2025), Melquised...

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