A tragic week for the government and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 20 May 2019 by Murillo de Aragão and Cristiano Noronha

---

This is a crucial week for the government in the Lower House, with nine provisional measures on the agenda that risk expiring if they are not voted upon, including the regulatory framework for sanitation (PM 868/18) and the reorganization of the Executive branch (PM 870/19). The government releases its revenue and expenditures report and may announce another spending freeze.

This week’s talking points:

A tragic week for the government: President Jair Bolsonaro predicted a political tidal wave for the government last week. His prediction came true. The problem is that the tough times have no end date and are likely to continue to divide the government and Congress. Jair Bolsonaro is proposing a new type of relationship with Congress. However, for many representatives and senators, it is a "non-relationship" policy.

Bolsonaro’s moves and their consequences: At a time when many people think the government "has lost its magic since Bolsonaro was sworn in" and is at the end of his honeymoon phase, Bolsonaro is doubling down against Congress and going for confrontation.

Maia, Alcolumbre and Toffoli try to calm investors: Last week, the presidents of the Lower House, Rodrigo Maia (DEM-RJ), the Senate, Davi Alcolumbre (DEM-AP), and the President of the Federal Supreme Court, Dias Toffoli, participated in several events with foreign investors to try to foster optimism despite the political problems faced by the government. For Maia, the executive branch needs to understand that Congress was also elected. "Pension Reform will pass,” guarantees Alcolumbre. Toffoli defends a reduction of the Constitution.

The government’s disorganization exposes Guedes: The absence of political articulation in the Bolsonaro government is weakening Minister Paulo Guedes’ position as a driver of more strict fiscal policy. The obstacles that Guedes has been facing in order to implement his agenda, due to a weak relationship between the executive and legislative branches, has led the legislature to adopt a completely independent stance towards the government.

João Doria’s reputation rises: President Jair Bolsonaro’s absence at the event held by the Brazil-United States Chamber of Commerce in New York last week meant Governor João Doria (PSDB) was one of the main politicians in attendance. Even though the presidents of the Senate, Davi Alcolumbre (DEM-AP), and the Supreme Federal Court (STF), Dias Toffoli, were present, Doria was chosen to speak for Brazil. Although the 2022 presidential elections are still far away on the political agenda, Doria is positioning himself as a potential candidate, which places him as a major player in the national political game.