​A Trump-Rouhani meeting is unlikely to resolve Iran crisis

GULF COUNTRIES - In Brief 26 Aug 2019 by Justin Alexander

---

There has been growing talk today of a Trump-Rouhani meeting in the aftermath of the surprise appearance of Iran’s foreign minister, Javad Zarif on the sidelines of the G7 summit yesterday. Macron, who had spoken to both presidents, said that the conditions are right for a meeting, potentially within a few weeks, Rouhani told the Iranian parliament he was willing if it could benefit Iran’s national interest and Trump also just signalled willingness in response to a question during the G7 closing press conference (MSNBC). He said that he had a gut feeling that there is “a really good chance” of a meeting with Rouhani, having previously said that he didn’t meet Zarif on Sunday because it would have been “too soon”. Significantly Trump said that he didn’t want a leadership change and that he would be open to Iran securing short-term borrowing from various countries, backed by oil, to help with its immediate financial crisis. It was not clear if that would be permitted rapidly, as a confidence-building measure, or only as part of a full deal to lift US sanctions in return for concessions on nuclear development and other issues.There has been considerable media excitement about the potential for a breakthrough in the crisis. If this were to happen, it would obviously drive down oil prices, as about 1.5m b/d of Iranian exports would come back into global oil supply, which in turn would be a very negative development for GCC public finances, particularly for the most vulnerable states (Oman, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia). This cost would only be partly offset by the benefits of reduced tension in the Gulf, including lower shipping costs and potentially improved tourism and busine...