A wasted summer
The politics section starts with an assessment of President Erdogan’s mental condition, an issue now brought up by the opposition. He may be experiencing momentary lapses of memory or early signs of dementia. This non-medical diagnosis suggests decision making in Ankara will likely become even more chaotic and less result-based.
There is not much harm for Ankara in flirting with the Taliban. To the contrary, it may encourage the EU to send a new check our way. However, no matter whatever the stated reasons of such a diplomatic engagement, they are unlikely to tame the Taliban to the degree of stopping the endless flow of refugees to neighboring countries. Erdogan doesn’t have an immigration policy, which is adding dollops to the growing voter anger in the country.
Apropos that anger, summer witnessed first mass demonstrations, as well as violence against Syrian refugees in Ankara. We now assess the likelihood of a second nation-wide eruption a’la 2013 Gezi Park protests, at no less than 50%.
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