All about the elections

TURKEY - Report 06 Feb 2022 by Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada

The politics section of this report is entirely dedicated to the possibility of early elections because this is the “only talk of the town”. We start by revisiting our 2022 baseline political scenario, which remains broadly intact, with only minor revisions.

The next section cites circumstantial evidence about President Erdogan and AKP-MHP gearing up for elections. Then, we add a list of future events, which will serve to gauge early election intentions.

In the end, we review parliamentary and presidential polls, reiterating our fairly strong confidence of Erdogan losing, though an adverse outcome is still within the realm of feasibility. We have very little doubt that the opposition will capture the parliament.

Now read on...

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