The most recent GEA-ISA national poll of registered voters, which was conducted in late May following the second presidential candidates’ debate, shows that Andrés Manuel López Obrador has significantly expanded his lead over the rest of the field, as the slight bounce Ricardo Anaya enjoyed after the first candidates’ debate evaporated. Excluding undecided voters, López Obrador has picked up nine points since late April, and his lead over Anaya widened by a similar margin, to 17 points (46% for AMLO against 29% for Anaya). While AMLO is gaining in most regions, Anaya has lost significant ground in the traditionally conservative north (where AMLO’s support has soared from 18% in March to 45%), as well as among women, voters with mid-range buying power and even youth – key demographic groups that have swung strongly toward the frontrunner.
José Antonio Meade continues to slip further back into third place, and in the one constituency in which he was absolutely dominating as recently as March – voters 55 and older – his support has plummeted from 45% to a mere 15%.
A far higher percentage of citizens indicated they had decided for whom they intend to vote on July 1 than has been the case in previous polls. We can expect this share of the electorate to grow as we draw closer to Election Day.
In next week’s Weekly Trends: Mexico Politics we will delve deeper into the factors that help to explain why López Obrador has expanded his lead over his competitors, but in the meantime we should note a couple of particularly positive results from this latest survey.
With less than a month to go before the elections we have observed growing interest in voting and greater trust in the National Electoral Institute than people had displayed in the past few months, although they remain more skeptical about the role played by the Federal Electoral Court.
As Election Day draws near, people appear more interested in casting a ballot on July 1. They also assign greater importance to how their vote will affect the decisions the next government will make, and seem more optimistic that their votes will be counted properly. In fact, the percentage of registered voters who think the results will be marred by some type of fraud plummeted by more than 20 points.
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