An end to the Trump presidency could significantly impact the Gulf, particularly Saudi Arabia

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 21 Nov 2019 by Justin Alexander

* Trump has already had a major impact on the Gulf, including in Saudi domestic politics.
* The 2020 election is hard to call given a divided Democratic field, the impeachment process and past polling shortcomings in swing states.
* The Democrats have all committed to rejoining the Iran nuclear deal and ending support for the war in Yemen. Several are highly critical of Saudi Arabia on human rights.
* A revival of decarbonisation policies under a Democrat could limit growth in US oil and gas production but would also advance alternatives, offering short-term benefits but medium-term costs for the Gulf.
* They all assign higher weights to values (vs interests) and engagement (vs isolation) than Trump, but there are still significant differences between them.
* Biden and Harris would broadly offer a return to Obama-era policies relevant to the Gulf.
* Buttigieg would put the most emphasis on democratic and human rights values, alongside pragmatic engagement to resolve conflicts and counter terrorism.
* Sanders would take the most critical positions on Saudi Arabia and Israel. He (and Warren) would be the most restrictive on US oil production.

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