Analysts expect slightly rising inflation data for February

HUNGARY - In Brief 07 Mar 2024 by Istvan Racz
The February CPI-inflation data is due tomorrow. The January actual was a surprisingly low 3.8% yoy. The median expectation in Portfolio.hu's usual monthly analyst poll is 3.9% yoy (13 respondents, 3.7-4.3% forecast range). Analysts expect (slightly) increasing inflation for the first time since early 2023. This forecast is based on the expectation that the CPI-impact of the January increase in the excise tax on fuels, with a 7% impact on fuel prices, will show up in the February data. In addition, a long series of super-friendly base effects ended last month. Somewhat curiously, Portfolio.hu's poll respondents now expect 5.3% yoy CPI-inflation for end-2024, up from the 5.1% yoy poll expectation recorded last month. The interesting part is that analysts now expect somewhat higher end-year inflation despite January's major positive surprise (substantially lower-than-expected actuals). It looks like the most recent weakness of the forint, not least due to the acceleration of MNB rate cuts last month, must have impressed analysts negatively.

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