Another Brick in the Wall

ARGENTINA - Forecast 30 Aug 2013 by Esteban Fernandez Medrano and Domingo Cavallo
Executive SummaryAmid the collateral damage from a new judicial defeat in the NY courts, this report presents our forecasts for 2013 and 2014. Our main assumption is that the government will try to navigate until 2015 without making the necessary adjustments while, at the same time, avoiding significant increases in macroeconomic imbalances.The official strategy tries to avoid both an orthodox macroeconomic adjustment as well as a crisis. Our forecasts up to 2014 suggest that it may be possible to avoid a full-fledged macroeconomic crisis.In our baseline scenario, we expect devaluation, inf...

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