Another turn in the war: disrupted Russian frontline logistics and blockade of the land corridor to occupied Crimea
The war has taken another turn, and this time clearly in Ukraine's favor. Ukrainian forces have expanded their medium-range drone strike capabilities to the point where this instrument of war is now affecting the battlefield strategically. By May, it was unmistakable that Ukrainian forces had in effect paralyzed Russian frontline logistics across occupied territories — which not only disrupted Russia's capacity to sustain its grinding offensive, but also opened the way for successful counter-offensive operations in multiple directions.
A further strategically significant consequence of expanded medium-range strike capacity is the ability of Ukrainian forces to impose effective fire control over the land corridor to occupied Crimea. The Kremlin had sought to secure Russia's military and civilian access to the peninsula through the coastal corridor along the Azov Sea, presenting this as at least a partial success of the “special military operation.” But with Ukrainian drones patrolling this route around the clock, eliminating military vehicles and fuel tankers, that achievement is no longer unambiguous. The emerging fuel crisis in Crimea suggests that Ukraine's strike campaign may inflict far greater damage on Russia's internal political situation, which remains highly sensitive to any developments on the peninsula. The expansion of medium-range strike capacities does not mean the war is nearing its end. It is, rather, a clear signal that Russian President Vladimir Putin will be forced into a desperate search for new solutions — and may dare to take very risky decisions. Ukraine's internal political situation is increasingly unstable. The NABU's formal notice of suspicion against former Presidential Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak has deepened the political crisis, and further weakened President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's governing capacity. Zelenskiy’s authority as a wartime leader is intact, but parliamentary discipline has eroded sharply, delaying IMF-related legislation and forcing Zelenskiy to seek uncomfortable ways out. Elections remain unlikely before a ceasefire, but demand for new leadership is clearly growing.
The EU has approved a €90 billion loan for Ukraine, and an immediate increase in budget spending is already visible in May data. But the funds have arrived only in early June, so in May gross international reserves fell by a further 5.2%, to $45.7 billion. The Cabinet has already prepared a spending increase of more than 30%, driven predominantly by additional defense expenditure.
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