Politics: Anti-government protests fueled by discontented youth pose risks for the 4T and the Sheinbaum government
A large demonstration on Saturday, November 15 against President Claudia Sheinbaum’s government may be a prelude to a major political realignment. The catalyst for the protest was the November 1 killing of Uruapan, Michoacán Mayor Carlos Manzo, a fierce critic of Sheinbaum’s security policy, which he characterized as weak and ineffective. But the underlying theme of the march was a rejection of Morena for abetting the growth in organized crime and corruption. What was new in the mobilization was that it was called by the Generation Z youth movement, although it was very much welcomed by the largely discredited and weakened opposition political parties, anxious for an influx of fresh recruits to the anti-government banner.
The Mexico City demonstration was marred by violent confrontations between masked young Black Block activists and the police, who later attacked the crowd.
Sheinbaum’s response was to minimize and belittle the demonstration and charge that it was engineered by the PRI, PAN, business magnate Ricardo Salinas Pliego, and foreign right-wing forces, backed by a powerful campaign of fake bots in the social media. But Sheinbaum’s intolerance and refusal to accept any criticism only fueled the anger of anti-government sectors.
The balance sheet of the protests is that Sheinbaum’s legitimacy has taken a major hit and some sectors of the population now see the government as repressive, mired in corruption, and incapable of effectively combating organized crime, if not in league with it. If this effervescence lasts, becomes consolidated, and widens, particularly among young people, who have in the past been largely absent from the opposition’s ranks, it could translate into a major challenge to Sheinbaum and to the country’s stability and governability. Some of the several likely scenarios following the demonstration that could pose a major challenge to governability include the discontent translating into an anti-Morena vote or abstentionism; the polarization fueled by Sheinbaum and Morena leading to voter support for conservative or far right-wing alternatives; a hardening of authoritarian tendencies in and by the government; increased vulnerability to pressure from Washington on security questions, with the danger of U.S. intervention; and a fragile government led by a weak and isolated president. All of these various scenarios individually or combined, bode poorly for the country’s governability.
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