Argentina 2019: At the crossroad again

ARGENTINA - Forecast 11 Jan 2019 by Domingo Cavallo and Esteban Fernández Medrano

The Argentine economy in Q4 performed at close to our previous forecast. For 2019 and 2020, we now present quantitative forecasts for two scenarios, and discuss a third scenario we cannot quantify. Finally, we will try to guess what political impact these three scenarios would have on the electoral results. In all cases, we present summary forecasts, with more details to be reported later, as more official data for 2018 is released.

For the first scenario, we will show predictions for 2019 and 2020, because in that case President Mauricio Macri would very likely be reelected, and there is some basis for estimating what his future policies would be.

For the second scenario, which includes a sudden stop, we will show predictions for both years, only under the assumption that Macri wins the election. If, instead, the opposition wins, there would be no basis for any kind of quantitative analysis of what might happen.

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