Politics: At year-end, Sheinbaum has high marks in general but low scores on specifics
President Claudia Sheinbaum has gotten through her first year in office and the end of 2025 with remarkably high approval ratings. Yet major and growing problems have taken their toll in terms of public support for her specific policies, to say nothing of governance risks. Although the last few weeks have been without major developments, for Sheinbaum this past year has been marked both by scandals linked to corruption and organized crime as well as by an unexpected surge in protest demonstrations against myriad public policies, involving sectors as diverse as teachers, farmers, judicial branch employees, healthcare workers, and Generation Z youth. Yet despite these failures, unresolved problems, warning signs, and serious risk factors, presidential approval rates hover between 60% and 70%, down 14 percentage points from February, but impressive nonetheless.
However, on three concrete issues—corruption, the fight against organized crime, and the economy—that are defining questions for the success or failure of the Fourth Transformation (4T) and are problems that AMLO claimed had been definitively resolved thanks to his administration, the scenario for Sheinbaum is far from promising. Sheinbaum’s policies on combating organized crime and corruption are rejected by whopping 80% majority, and on the economy, she gets a mere 54% approval rating (with 41% giving her low marks). Another red flag for Sheinbaum is the lackluster economy. In the seven years of the 4T, economic growth has been a paltry annual 0.4%. If the economy does not resume strong growth, discontent will intensify in the medium term and could even lead to a very adverse political and electoral panorama for Sheinbaum and Morena.
The government has responded with Plan México, which seeks to boost domestic investment and production, and on December 3 Sheinbaum announced the creation of the Investment Promotion Council. The latter is conceived as part of Plan México to promote strategic investments. However, it will not be easy sledding for the President. On the one hand she needs to generate confidence among the business community so that it invests and economic growth recovers, but at the same time she is wedded to political and ideological commitments and poor policy decisions that undercut a rapprochement with this sector, which she is addressing with contradictory messages.
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