Back to the Seventies

ECUADOR - Forecast 19 Feb 2014 by Magdalena Barreiro
Executive Summary The economy may have grown 4.5% last year -- 0.5 pp above expectations, though more slowly than in 2012. That would follow a Q3 growth rate of 4.9% y/y, and 1.8% q/q – the highest quarterly growth rate in a year. Oil is the driver of these happy results: oil manufacturing expanded 0.29% q/q, and oil refining by 0.21%.This carried oil sector growth up 4.8% q/q, vs. just 1.2% in the non-oil sector. Exports rose by 3.3% q/q, and 6.6% y/y, contributing to a 0.87% rise. Household consumption rose 1.2% q/q, for a stagnant 4% y/y, and a contribution of 0.77%. Unemployment fell 0....

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